Replacing the F-16: Will Pakistan’s Top Fighter Squadron Transition to Chinese J-10Cs?

[The Raven]

As fast taliban heading towards kabul as fast chances of getting F-16v is increasing, we might see a deal with USA in next month or so

Not sure whether you're serious or being facetious, but how does the Taliban advance increase the chances of the PAF getting F-16Vs?!

 

[Riz]

Not sure whether you're serious or being facetious, but how does the Taliban advance increase the chances of the PAF getting F-16Vs?!

Just my guess nothing more , this is the best time to stuck a deal with Americans

 

[BON PLAN]

As fast taliban heading towards kabul as fast chances of getting F-16v is increasing, we might see a deal with USA in next month or so

I'm not so optimistic. Uncle Sam perfectly knows than Pak army is now in the chinese hands.
Even if F16V is not a F35, I really don't see them giving pak this bird, with the risk to see it in China in a couple of weeks.
You have now to rely only on China and Russia.

 

[Signalian]

we don’t know enough about J-10C

Perhaps look at J-16D and J-20 weaponry, avionics and EW suite to see what J-10 can potentially come with.

 

[LeGenD]

I doubt J-10C has superior EW and radar capabilities to F-16V. (the Radar in J-10C is unknown, however in previous J-10B it was a scaled up version of the KLJ or LKF series, C has a better radar, possibly current gen Chinese AESA. but PAF seems to want an even better one, probably points to the fact that currently the C does not have the best China has to offer).

There is ample information about J-10 variants on the web but I do not get the hype of J-10C in particular. I have posted some information in previous post (fixed 1st image as well). There is virtually nothing to suggest that sensor systems of J-10C are in the league of sensor systems of F-16 Block 70/72, let alone the notion of "J-10C has superior EW and radar capabilities to F-16V" can even be entertained. If the gap is big in this area, what more there is to talk about? The talk simply ends here.

But OTOH there are things in the J-10Cs favor, DSI and likely lower RCS, possibly better airframe makeup due to use of more composites (only because the aircraft is newer, doesn’t really give it much advantage overall).

There are noticeable differences in the airframe of F-16 variants and J-10 variants to begin with. DSi is helpful in terms of mitigating RCS spikes of canards and other details in J-10C; the jet fighter have external payload nevertheless.

F-16 Block 70/72 have sufficient sensor fidelity to detect and track airborne objects having RCS around 1 m^2 mark from afar (solid BVR engagement envelope for targets of the sort). J-10C will be noticed and tracked from afar - no issue.

Rafale F3R can also detect elusive airborne objects around 100 KM mark with onboard EO/IR solution being active at this point, and the likes of J-10C beforehand.

Therefore.

inbuilt IRST,

It looks like you skimmed my previous post.

"Building on decades of proven performance, Lockheed Martin has updated the sensor suite of the F-16 to even further increase its capabilities. The new variation of the IRST21® (Infrared Search and Track) sensor suite, named Legion-ES™ (Embedded System), is designed for the F-16 Block 70/72 fleet to optimize aircraft performance.

Legion-ES is a fully integrated, embedded IRST system providing critical technology to detect and track airborne threats with weapon-quality accuracy, increasing pilot reaction time and enhancing warfighter survivability. The configuration is complementary to other on-board and off-board aircraft sensors, enabling multispectral engagement capability. For example, if a pilot spots something of uncertainty on his or her radar, Legion-ES can be used as the long-wave infrared sensor to determine what the threat may be."

Lockheed Martin Unveils Upgraded Sensor Suite for New Production F-16

Building on decades of proven performance, Lockheed Martin has updated the sensor suite of the F-16 to even further increase its capabilities.

www.lockheedmartin.com

Much better BVR missiles (AIM-260 is not ready and won’t be for a while, AIM120 cannot match up to PL-15, despite being a very good BVR), comparable if not better WVR missiles (PL-10E versus AIM9X).

LOL

AIM-120D can be used to engage airborne targets around 150 KM mark in BVR engagements - this is very close to maximum of PL-15. AIM-120D is also one of the most reliable A2A missiles ever built. How many PL-15 kills out there?

Having long-range A2A missiles is helpful but you need to keep in mind what they can do in EW-heavy environments.

BVR kills might not be easy to achieve in many situations depending upon what type of adversary you are up against.

Also payload capacity for J-10C exceeds 7000KG iirc. Because for the original J-10A model it was reported to be 6800KG. J-10C is also cheaper than an F-16V, so we can’t exactly compare them 1:1.

6000 kg is maximum limit of J-10 variants. There will be performance penalties otherwise. You cannot expect miracles from increasingly lighter airframes.

So I’d still stand by what I said, F-16V overall imo is slightly superior to J-10C.

No.

Then you have to look at its benefits specifically for Pakistan, in Pakistans use case, F-16V does not have as long a range as J-10C, because J-10C has IFR and F-16V doesn’t (in Pakistans case). J-10C is less sanction prone, easier to deliver, will benefit JF project etc etc. these obviously don’t make it a better aircraft objectively than the F-16V but in Pakistans case they definitely matter. In an ideal scenario where PAK-US relations are good I’d definitely want the PAF to get F-16V, heck the PAF would even pick the F16V over the J-10C now if somehow the option was present to get them in large numbers.

J-10C will have better range in Pakistan's case due to IFR ???

F-16s are designed to operate in all weather conditions and can be used to conduct strikes deep inside India with CFTs in current times - how will J-10C fit the bill without reliable CFTs?

Unless PAF gets something like J-16 or Eurofighter Typhoon?

F-16s do not suffer much performance loss in case of protracted engagements either (solid blend of airframe and engine performance parameters). This is important consideration as well.

Americans have decided that there won't be political compromises in exports of F-16 Block 70/72 to interested parties.

New F-16s Will All Be Sold In A Single Base Model Configuration With A Standardized Price

Lockheed Martin says the new sales concept will save time and money, both in the contracting process and when it comes to actually producing the jets.

www.thedrive.com

Good thing I suppose?

As for other options, I already explained why gripen is not good, it doesn’t bring much capability above JF block 3 and PAF cannot get any good BvRs for it. EF is also off the cards for now, much more expensive, really expensive to fly, and meteor wasn’t an option, maybe in the future it still will be but I doubt it, PAF can wait for FGFAs with Azm + TFX + J31/J35, which is imo the next step after J-10 for Pakistan.

WE are expecting too much from select suppliers TBH. Pakistan should try its best to cultivate solid relations with as many countries as possible in coming years; wider set of options are much better for launching new programs and making off-the-shelf purchases in times of urgency.

 

[jupiter2007]

Slighty superior? Comparison(s) with F-16 Block 70/72 is not a good idea in fact.

J-10C is difficult to evaluate due to lack of information in Public domain and customer testimonials:

View attachment 769350

I do get the impression that F-16 Block 70/72 is better on many counts.

1. About the radar system in use in J-10C?

KLJ-X AESA with 1200 TRMs? Similar to KLJ-7a AESA or older design? Chinese 1st generation or 2nd generation?

- - -

F-16 Block 70/72 is equipped with AN/APG-83 LPI (300 KM detection range for airborne targets and can produce a fire solution for up to 20 targets in short order). This is a derivative of the very impressive AN/APG-81 LPI radar system in use in F-35 variants. These are 4th generation AESA radar systems in American terms - more advanced than RBE-2AA AESA in use in Rafale F3R.

AN/APG-83 LPI have extensive EW/EP capability of its own and seamless integration with next generation AN/ALQ-254(V)1 Viper Shield DEWS - a significant leap from the (combat-proven) AN/ALQ-211 family of EW systems in use in relatively older F-16 Blocks worldwide including Pakistan.

Source: MilitaryLeak

F-16 Block 70/72 can also be equipped with cutting-edge Legion IRST solutions (Embedded; Pod).

F-15 Uses New Infrared Pod To Shoot Down Target F-16 With AIM-120 Missile

The F-15's new Infrared Search and Track pod has just proved its ability to provide targeting data needed to make a long-range missile kill.

www.thedrive.com

F-16 Block 70/72 brings some of the best warfighting technologies to the table in short.

- - -

J-10C also features an embedded IRST solution, and an ECM system (SPO-15LM Beryoza or modernized extrapolation of it?)

China could learn about JAS 39 Gripen C- and D- variants from excercises with Thailand but this is not actual combat. According to independent reports, J-11 flopped but J-10C fared much better against Gripen C- and D- in these events.

F-16 Block 70/72 is on another level in comparison to Gripen C- and D- however.

Therefore...

- - -

2. Fuel capacity of J-10C?

4500 kg? Maximum ferry range is noticeably lower than the same of F-16s in fact.

I do not recall any live demonstration of J-10C with CFTs.

It remains to be seen how CFTs will affect performance of J-10C if (or when) applied.

- - -

Fuel capacity of F-16 Block 70/72 = 4715 kg (internal) + 2268 kg (CFTs* = 2)

*CFTs of F-16 are shaped and constructed with materials to ensure minimum impact on the maneuverability aspects of the jet fighter.

"The CFTs have very little adverse effect on the F-16’s renowned performance. A set of CFTs carries 50 percent more fuel than the centerline external fuel tank, but has only 12 percent of the drag. The aircraft retains its full 9-g capability and flight envelope with the CFTs installed. The drag impact is very small, less than one percent in combat configuration at cruise conditions.” - Major Timothy McDonald (USA)

The aforementioned characteristics are necessary to conduct military operations deep inside hostile environments (e.g. India). Cruise missiles are in limited quantities so jet fighters should be able to substitute them in various missions. Refueling aircraft are vulnerable targets on the other hand.

- - - - -

Fuel capacity of F-16 Block 52+ and MLU configuration = 3175 kg (internal) + 2268 kg (CFTs = 2)

- - - - -

3. Payload capacity of J-10C?

6000+ kg?

- - -

Payload capacity of F-16 Block 70/72 = 7350 kg

Bigger payload have its benefits in modern warfare.

4. Quality factor of J-10C?

F-16 Block 70/72 is developed with very high quality components including engine. MTBF is stated to be 12000 hours which is a breakthrough. This is much higher than the same of many jet fighters in service around the world.

F-16 Block 70/72 also have Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance System (AGCAS) to recover from risky maneuvers near surface.

- - -

All said and done, F-16 Block 70/72 is ideal option for PAF to counter Rafale F3R over Indian airspace and conduct strikes deep inside Indian terrain in forseeable future, should the need arise.

US-Pakistan relations however?

- - -

JF-17 Block 3 will bridge the gap between J-10C and JF-17 Thunder platform to large extent.

J-10C is good option for replacing some of the older jet fighters in the inventory of PAF nevertheless.

PAF can/should also take a look at JAS 39 Gripen E- variant.

- - -

To replace F-16s, PAF should aim for a jet fighter that can be used to counter Rafale F3R head-on and go deep inside India (in case).

J-16 can substitute F-16s but not for sale unfortunately.

Eurofighter Tranche 5 perhaps? Joint venture with Turkey otherwise?

• First of all, J-10C if aquired will not replace F-16. It will be for stop gap purpose until J-35, AZM or other 5th gneration fighter option is available.
• 2nd, it's not worth comparing the two plateform since J-10C hasn't been involve in any conflict.
• J-11/J-16/J-15 will need approval from Russia and we don't knwo if this was discussed among theree parties (Pakistan, CHina and Russia).
• European option is not available due to economic situtation and even if it comes, it will come with restrictions.
• J-35, Turkish 5th Gen fighter and AZM, all will need 10+ years to go into serial producation.

 

[araz]

Given that Pakistan has harboured and supported the Taliban, do you believe the Americans will sell them F-16Vs?

Pakistan may have removed the threat of iranian and indian presence in Afghanistan, but a potential civil war and fracture in the country could lead to the likes of ISIS and blowback severely hurting Pakistan, like it did in the 2000s. No one seems to learn anything.

The speed and ease of Taliban take over even in areas wherethey found life difficult points to a transition of power rather than a Civil war. I expect the Ghani govtt to fall in a few weeks if not sooner as you will see the main players exiting fairly soon to greener pastures. If the Taliban then call for a representative Government giving a chance to all stake holders to have representation in the Centre this transition is going to be peaceful and better for the people of Afghanistan
A

 

[The Raven]

The speed and ease of Taliban take over even in areas wherethey found life difficult points to a transition of power rather than a Civil war. I expect the Ghani govtt to fall in a few weeks if not sooner as you will see the main players exiting fairly soon to greener pastures. If the Taliban then call for a representative Government giving a chance to all stake holders to have representation in the Centre this transition is going to be peaceful and better for the people of Afghanistan
A

Read that again...slowly. You are talking about the Taliban, right?

 

[dbc]

AIM-120D can be used to engage airborne targets around 150 KM mark in BVR engagements - this is very close to maximum of PL-15. AIM-120D is also one of the most reliable A2A missiles ever built.

AMRAAM ER that more than doubles the range of AIM-120D is being tested with the F-35.
Its a joint effort, partnering Raytheon, Nammo and Kongsberg of Norway.

 

[PoondolotoPandalum]

From an airframe perspective, the J-10C is half a generation ahead of the F-16, unsurprisingly. The F-16 took its shape from research conducted in the 1960s and early 70s. J-10C, in particular, had the advantage of being developed with the aid of modern computational fluid dynamics, which enabled them to incorporate advanced aerodynamic features like DSI intakes (which is REALLY hard to design well btw).

The J-10 is a delta-canard design, better optimized for high-speed supersonic maneuverability. F-16s, including the V, are optimized for low-medium transonic maneuverability, using the classic energy maneuverability theory, developed by John Boyd. Its performance envelops lies beyond the fairly pedestrian angle of attack limits. Whereas TVC equipped planes like J-10C, can go well beyond those envelops, on something colloquially referred to as "beyond aerodynamics by the Russians. F-16s Achilles heels from an aerodynamic perspective were its low wing loading, which was somewhat compensated by its LERX, and movable slats on the wings. The US conducted extensive research to fix that problem, making technology demonstrators like the F-16XL. F-16's just got heavier and heavier. Those tiny wings have to work much harder on the V than it has even with Block 50/52s.

Though it's not clear whether the J-10C can supercruise, unlike all other Delta Standards (Rafale, EFT, Gripen-NG)., one can reasonably expect higher maximum and cruise speed than F-16s. They will have comparable acceleration at low to medium altitudes. But the delta canard config of J-10, alongside DSI intakes, will permit superior high speed, high altitude performance.

As a fundamental airframe, J-10C has a higher capacity for growth than the F-16, which even the USAF has said has just reached the pinnacle of its development potential. Whereas a J-10C is already fairly substantial (DSI intakes, thrust vectoring, more lightweight materials) than the standard J-10.

In terms of avionics, radar, ECM, etc, literally 0 information is released in the public domain. I don't think the Chinese have even said they've reached full parity in sensor capabilities as the US yet. They probably will in a few year's time. But these are the sort of equipment that requires decades of experience, in addition to technical expertise to master.

PS, Does Pakistan have any experience operating twin-engine fighters/attack aircraft? The last one I can think of was MiG-19 derivatives (F-6, A-5). My guess it's to balance the quantity vs quality game, for a country the size of Pakistan, and limited financial resources

 

[dbc]

From an airframe perspective, the J-10C is half a generation ahead of the F-16, unsurprisingly. The F-16 took its shape from research conducted in the 1960s and early 70s. J-10C, in particular, had the advantage of being developed with the aid of modern computational fluid dynamics, which enabled them to incorporate advanced aerodynamic features like DSI intakes (which is REALLY hard to design well btw).

The J-10 is a delta-canard design, better optimized for high-speed supersonic maneuverability. F-16s, including the V, are optimized for low-medium transonic maneuverability, using the classic energy maneuverability theory, developed by John Boyd. Its performance envelops lies beyond the fairly pedestrian angle of attack limits. Whereas TVC equipped planes like J-10C, can go well beyond those envelops, on something colloquially referred to as "beyond aerodynamics by the Russians. F-16s Achilles heels from an aerodynamic perspective were its low wing loading, which was somewhat compensated by its LERX, and movable slats on the wings. The US conducted extensive research to fix that problem, making technology demonstrators like the F-16XL. F-16's just got heavier and heavier. Those tiny wings have to work much harder on the V than it has even with Block 50/52s.

Though it's not clear whether the J-10C can supercruise, unlike all other Delta Standards (Rafale, EFT, Gripen-NG)., one can reasonably expect higher maximum and cruise speed than F-16s. They will have comparable acceleration at low to medium altitudes. But the delta canard config of J-10, alongside DSI intakes, will permit superior high speed, high altitude performance.

As a fundamental airframe, J-10C has a higher capacity for growth than the F-16, which even the USAF has said has just reached the pinnacle of its development potential. Whereas a J-10C is already fairly substantial (DSI intakes, thrust vectoring, more lightweight materials) than the standard J-10.

In terms of avionics, radar, ECM, etc, literally 0 information is released in the public domain. I don't think the Chinese have even said they've reached full parity in sensor capabilities as the US yet. They probably will in a few year's time. But these are the sort of equipment that requires decades of experience, in addition to technical expertise to master.

PS, Does Pakistan have any experience operating twin-engine fighters/attack aircraft? The last one I can think of was MiG-19 derivatives (F-6, A-5). My guess it's to balance the quantity vs quality game, for a country the size of Pakistan, and limited financial resources

news flash bubba, DSI is a Italian invention from the 1950's . For the rest, I couldn't be bothered

 

[PoondolotoPandalum]

news flash bubba, DSI is a Italian invention from the 1950's . For the rest, I couldn't be bothered

And your point is?

 

[dbc]

And your point is?

my point is there is so much wrong in what you said but I don't have the energy or the desire to contradict you.

 

[PoondolotoPandalum]

my point is there is so much wrong in what you said but I don't have the energy or the desire to contradict you.

my point is there is so much wrong in what you said but I don't have the energy or the desire to contradict you.

Then why make a half-arsed point in the first place that neither contradicts or advances any form of argument?

Its Italian origins may be of trivial interest. But I'm still unclear on the point you're trying to make. I think I have a clue, but is suspect it has something to do with ego

 

[araz]

Read that again...slowly. You are talking about the Taliban, right?

Lets wait and see. What happened in in the 80s might not necessarily happen again. People learn and mature. If they dont there will continue to be strife in Afghanistan.
A