Real GDP to grow to $196.58bn in 2010-11

[ameer219]

Based on cost factor: Real GDP to grow to $196.58bn in 2010-11

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

* Govt estimates GDP growth rate to be 4%, exchange rate Rs 86.5 per dollar

By Sajid Chaudhry

ISLAMABAD: The government estimates suggest that the real gross domestic product (GDP) based on cost factor would grow to $196.589 billion with a GDP growth rate of 4 percent and exchange rate at Rs 86.5 per dollar during the next fiscal year 2010-11, official sources informed here on Monday.

These estimates are going to be discussed and finalised at a meeting of the Medium Term Budgetary Framework scheduled on April 28, which will be presided over by the Planning Commission’s deputy chairman.

Real GDP: It was projected to post a growth to $176.965 billion at the time of the announcement of the budget 2009-10 with a growth rate at 3 percent and exchange rate at Rs 83.83 a dollar. However, revised estimates suggest that real GDP would post a growth of 3.3 percent with exchange rate of Rs 84.7 a dollar and is expected to reach $177.556 billion by the end of the ongoing fiscal year 2009-10. The government estimates suggest that the real GDP based on cost factor would grow to $196.589 billion with a GDP growth rate of 4 percent and exchange rate at Rs 86.5 per dollar during the next fiscal year 2010-11.

Real GDP was projected to grow to Rs 14.835 trillion with a growth rate at 3 percent at the time the announcement of the budget, however, revised estimates suggest that the real GDP would grow to Rs 15.039 trillion by June 30, 2010 with a growth rate at 3.3 percent. It has been projected that the real GDP would grow to Rs 17.005 trillion with GDP growth target at 4 percent in the upcoming fiscal year 2010-11, the sources further informed.

Nominal GDP: The nominal GDP was projected in the budget 2009-10 to grow to $168.400 billion with a growth rate of 3 percent. However, revised estimates suggest that GDP growth in the ongoing fiscal year 2009-10 would be higher to 3.3 percent of the GDP and nominal GDP to reach at $170.236 billion by June 30, 2010. It has been projected that nominal GDP growth with a growth rate of 4 percent and exchange rate at Rs 86.5 a dollar would reach $187.236 billion by June 2011.

Nominal GDP was projected to grow to Rs 14.117 trillion at the time of the announcement of the budget for the ongoing fiscal year and revised estimates suggest that nominal GDP would reach Rs 14.419 trillion by June 30, 2010. It has been projected that nominal GDP would be increased to Rs 16.196 trillion by June 2011.

GDP deflator: GDP deflator had been projected at Rs 248.6 billion or 10 percent at the time of the announcement of the budget for the ongoing fiscal year 2009-10, however, revised estimates suggest that GDP deflator would be Rs 253.2 billion or 12.03 percent by the end of the ongoing fiscal year. GDP deflator has been estimated at Rs 273.5 billion or 8 percent in the next fiscal year 2010-11.

Exchange rate: Exchange rate at the time of the announcement of the budget was estimated at Rs 83.83 a dollar, however, revised estimates suggest that exchange rate has been recorded at Rs 84.7 a dollar and it has also been projected that the exchange rate in the next fiscal year would be Rs 86.5 a dollar in the country.

 

[MZUBAIR]

We need more Dollars ....more and more to raise our economy

 

[jagjitnatt]

Thats a huge expectation. A huge jump from the current GDP. I hope it happens. Would be a relief to economists in Pakistan.

Good Luck

 

[naved_kam]

Good numbers.

However, normal parlance, it should be read together with the %ile of the loans/grants to the GDP. 1-2% is healthy....I think that for Pakistan it is much higher = 10 + %??

 

[NAVY SEAL]

GOP is doing fine against all odds.we should wish them good luck

 

[Bombay]

Totally bogus!!

If the Real GDP is Rs 15.039 trillion by June 30, 2010, and then a growth of 4%, which means total GDP addition is

15.039 * 4/100 = 0.601

Which means GDP at the end of 2010-11 is Rs 15.039+0.601 = Rs 15.640 trillion(and not Rs 17 trillion)

The report is hiding nearly 15-20% inflation rate. Real GDP growth is calculated as GDP growth+inflation. Now GDP growth is only 3-4%, but the inflation is nearly 15-20. So,
3+15=18% growth in real terms including inflation.

15.039 * 18/100 = 2.7
15.039 + 2.7 = Rs. 177.7 trillion.(considering 15% inflation)

If anything this bogus report should tell is, it is the extremely high inflation rate, which is inflating the currency value(not the actual growth in economy which is paltry 3-4%). Tell us how to fool the awaam!!

Only good thing about the report is the it is speculating inflation to come down to 12%.

.

 

[Hyde]

Totally bogus!!

.

you are right - its totally bogus

when i read this part

Real GDP: It was projected to post a growth to $176.965 billion at the time of the announcement of the budget 2009-10 with a growth rate at 3 percent and exchange rate at Rs 83.83 a dollar. However, revised estimates suggest that real GDP would post a growth of 3.3 percent with exchange rate of Rs 84.7 a dollar and is expected to reach $177.556 billion by the end of the ongoing fiscal year 2009-10. The government estimates suggest that the real GDP based on cost factor would grow to $196.589 billion with a GDP growth rate of 4 percent and exchange rate at Rs 86.5 per dollar during the next fiscal year 2010-11.

It had lost all its credibility so did not bother to continue reading afterwards. Just had a glimpse on the news but did not make sense to me in the end

 

[SAUD-404]

I wont say bogus report but its a little missleading , although it sounds good but in reality it isn't.

 

[lhuang]

I refrained from posting, but it didn't ring properly with me either.

 

[keeninterest]

i delete this post, yes the data reported does seem quite f-ed up.

mods please delete this post. thanks.

 

[MZUBAIR]

We need more Dollars ....more and more to raise our economy ...this is the only solution and to do this.............we need to develop products that can be exported to toher countries in return of dollors..........this is the only solution....

This is not the solution

Dont give money to people ......improve and grow their man power skills ....install business oppertunites that can produce products for export to earn dollors

 

[WAQAS119]

i don't understand that how few economic students can judge a report of economic specialists!!!

 

[xenia]

i don't understand that how few economic students can judge a report of economic specialists!!!

because they know how to calculate GDP...simple...
one thing u guys didnt notice is it GDP based on fcator costs...i have one problem..it should b nominal not real GDP

ok what was the inflation adjustment??10.2% as per SBP report...that makes me laugh!

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Good move hope our economic recovery goes forward and this war in our back yard ends once and for all

 

[Hyde]

Good move hope our economic recovery goes forward and this war in our back yard ends once and for all

Aameen Azaad

but do not take the above mentioned news seriously - it is nothing but a bluff by some non-professional journalist who does not know very simple maths