RCEP will be signed in 2020 without India. The largest trading bloc is here.

[Mista]

It's a short-term protectionist thinking and a silly argument. If protectionism work, why don't each of India's state impose high tariffs on each other? Each state can wait until their domestic industry is strong enough, no?

Why did China's economy grow at double digits after joining the WTO despite the huge economic shocks it had?

South Korea is weak in aerospace manufacturing. So should they put high tariffs on plane imports? Who suffers ultimately?

China consumes more energy than it produces. So should they put high tariffs on energy imports? Who suffers ultimately?

Singapore used to produced nearly all of our own food, but today we produce only 10% of our food supply. So should we put high tariffs on food imports? Who suffers ultimately?

Why does Singapore top the world for Global Food Security Index even though we produce only 10% of our own food? Because we have the lowest tariffs and we import from all over the world. It's well-diversified and therefore risks are lower. And we import from whichever country can produce the most value-for-money.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/singapore-tops-global-index-for-food-security

If we put on high tariffs and tried producing our own food, can we produce it cheaper and better than we import? What is the opportunity cost for land, labor and what about the consumer savings which can be channeled to other sectors of the economy?

If someone else can do it cheaper and better than you, why do you want to do it yourself? You should trade more to take advantage of that and find your relative competitive advantage, and a free market facilitates that process. It's win-win.

Many arguments are just looking from the exporters' POV and ignore the importers' POV. Everyone benefits from freer trade in the long run, including exporters and importers. And because consumers can save more money they can spend more on other sectors of the economy. That's real standard of living because you are consuming and enjoying more, not just GDP numbers on paper.

 

[mike2000 is back]

Japanese Trade Minister Hiroshi Kajiyama said Tuesday that Tokyo would work toward a deal including India. This would keep the world’s largest democracy within the RCEP framework and be in line with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s policy of bolstering ties with India in order to balance Beijing’s growing power.

“Our country wants to play a leading role toward reaching an early agreement between all 16 countries, including India, with the aim of signing it in 2020,” said Kajiyama, who wasn’t present at the latest negotiations in Bangkok, told reporters in Tokyo.

I fail to see how Japan will make India sign onto this deal which India views as a threat to its own country's interests and industry. I don't think India was ever likely to sign this deal. Probably not this decade . So other members will either have to move on without India or just give up on this trade grouping altogether and maybe revive it a decade from now. That's if they desperately need/want India to join this trade pact, which I don't think they have to.

 

[vi-va]

I fail to see how Japan will make India sign onto this deal which India views as a threat to its own country's interests and industry. I don't think India was ever likely to sign this deal. Probably not this decade . So other members will either have to move on without India or just give up on this trade grouping altogether and maybe revive it a decade from now. That's if they desperately need/want India to join this trade pact, which I don't think they have to.

ASEAN feel very upset on Indian. They would love to kick out Indian in RCEP as soon as possible, because of ASEAN–India Free Trade Area.

China and ASEAN agree to move on, Japan have to accept it without India. India is just 3 trillion economy, while the rest is 23 trillion. Japan can not afford to wait for India for another 10 years.

It's a short-term protectionist thinking and a silly argument. If protectionism work, why don't each of India's state impose high tariffs on each other? Each state can wait until their domestic industry is strong enough, no?

Why did China's economy grow at double digits after joining the WTO despite the huge economic shocks it had?

South Korea is weak in aerospace manufacturing. So should they put high tariffs on plane imports? Who suffers ultimately?

China consumes more energy than it produces. So should they put high tariffs on energy imports? Who suffers ultimately?

Singapore used to produced nearly all of our own food, but today we produce only 10% of our food supply. So should we put high tariffs on food imports? Who suffers ultimately?

Why does Singapore top the world for Global Food Security Index even though we produce only 10% of our own food? Because we have the lowest tariffs and we import from all over the world. It's well-diversified and therefore risks are lower. And we import from whichever country can produce the most value-for-money.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/singapore-tops-global-index-for-food-security

If we put on high tariffs and tried producing our own food, can we produce it cheaper and better than we import? What is the opportunity cost for land, labor and what about the consumer savings which can be channeled to other sectors of the economy?

If someone else can do it cheaper and better than you, why do you want to do it yourself? You should trade more to take advantage of that and find your relative competitive advantage, and a free market facilitates that process. It's win-win.

Many arguments are just looking from the exporters' POV and ignore the importers' POV. Everyone benefits from freer trade in the long run, including exporters and importers. And because consumers can save more money they can spend more on other sectors of the economy. That's real standard of living because you are consuming and enjoying more, not just GDP numbers on paper.

@Suika

India will further be marginalized in regional economy cooperation. It's the best opportunity India missed again in recent 10 years.

The 3 biggest regional economy, EU, RCEP and NAFTA. India has lost all the bargaining chips and isolated herself.

When India negotiate with above 3 major regional economy organization, India has lower hand. The entrance ticket will be more and more expensive.

I am not surprised at all, India always be short sighted, focus on tiny issues while ignoring major ones.

The funny thing is Japan bet on India, what a pathetic strategy.

@mike2000
India will have larger trade deficit with all the major trade partner. The market which India get from ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, China will be replaced. India either raise the tariff even higher, or lower their currency. But either way will hurt India's growth.

 

[TheTruth]

Awesome. Now the five eyes cucks need to be kicked out.

 

[vi-va]

Awesome. Now the five eyes cucks need to be kicked out.

We will need Australia's iron ore, New Zealand's milk anyway. It's win-win.

China doesn't have US mentality, we can do business with friends, rivals and enemies. Nothing is permanent, rivals can be friends when trust is built. Time will prove China is on the right side of history.

 

[TheTruth]

We will need Australia's iron ore, New Zealand's milk anyway. It's win-win.

China doesn't have US mentality, we can do business with friends, rivals and enemies. Nothing is permanent, rivals can be friends when trust is built. Time will prove China is on the right side of history.

Australians are roach like creatures. Better to find iron ore from others. From humans.

 

[obj 705A]

China does not need Australia, it is Australia that needs China not the other way around, the only thing that China gets from Australia is raw materlias & all of these materials are replaceble by imports from many other places such as Africa for example, the only reason why China still imports materials from the white trash in Australia is to have economic influence on them, keep your friends close but keep your enemies closer.

regarding the RCEP, check out this crappy article from the AFP / Yahoo.

India will not join RCEP trade deal in blow to sprawling Asian pact

India said Monday it would not join a sprawling Asian trade pact, dealing a blow to the China-backed deal at the end of a Bangkok summit held against a backdrop of global growth fears.

https://news.yahoo.com/us-says-extremely-engaged-asia-trump-skips-asean-052434592.html
____________________________________

LMAO they are trying to portray India not joining RCEP as a blow to RCEP not the other way around (ie: a blow to India).

 

[vi-va]

China does not need Australia, it is Australia that needs China not the other way around, the only thing that China gets from Australia is raw materlias & all of these materials are replaceble by imports from many other places such as Africa for example, the only reason why China still imports materials from the white trash in Australia is to have economic influence on them, keep your friends close but keep your enemies closer.

regarding the RCEP, check out this crappy article from the AFP / Yahoo.

India will not join RCEP trade deal in blow to sprawling Asian pact

India said Monday it would not join a sprawling Asian trade pact, dealing a blow to the China-backed deal at the end of a Bangkok summit held against a backdrop of global growth fears.

https://news.yahoo.com/us-says-extremely-engaged-asia-trump-skips-asean-052434592.html
____________________________________

LMAO they are trying to portray India not joining RCEP as a blow to RCEP not the other way around (ie: a blow to India).

Australia is closer, shipping fee for Iron Ore is cheaper. China built Valemax ships to transport Iron Ore from Brazil. It will cut the shipping fee a lot. But still Australia is competitive.

 

[Nilgiri]

I fail to see how Japan will make India sign onto this deal which India views as a threat to its own country's interests and industry. I don't think India was ever likely to sign this deal. Probably not this decade . So other members will either have to move on without India or just give up on this trade grouping altogether and maybe revive it a decade from now. That's if they desperately need/want India to join this trade pact, which I don't think they have to.

Honestly you are getting just one side of the picture in this forum.

Please read:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosm...-turn-india-to-another-pakistan/#629539a16ebf

and then also have a look at the ease of doing business improving only in recent years for India:

Not to mention only recently reduced corporate tax (esp for fresh investment sectors):

It means there is a huge swathe of reforms and policy decisions ongoing in current admin period (compared to previous admin era where people in this thread and other areas like to reference solely as be all end all, given its policy and reform stagnancy i.e from 2004 - 2014). So its bad juncture right now till we have the new system fully set up and ready to absorb capex. The plate is full for what the govt has to work on to improve...dont need another major perturbation especially one that has clear counter-forces to the momentum.

In interim India simply will not play into the forex wall employment subsidy China has set up for itself and which itself will be under severe strain in the near and mid future....especially not without concessions on Pharma and IT so we at least can leverage some of the competitiveness we developed in the earlier era to help balance.

After all if you want to use the whole argument of should be open so things can "freely" compete...it should first be applied on oneself as the standard (i.e why continue keep certain things of your own "off the table" and shielded?) Very much akin to why its silly for Bernie to say he is a "socialist" when he has million dollar holiday homes. Practice what you preach fully yourself first rather than selectively and then patronise.

Then and only then can we look at if its actually a free competition at all to proceed to next phase of argument (i.e the effect of the subsidy forex wall of China regarding that for underpricing goods to keep a grand shield for labour inelasticitiy and to keep people off of city squares for example - fears that run deep in authoritarian/totalitarian regimes esp given the history and ongoing issues where CPC control is not so monolithic).

Simply put, we will simply get a far better deal later...with far stronger hand once further downstream from the reforms and policy decisions being made