Ramifications of Ukraine on Taiwan

[Raphael]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/CHIN-02-180314.html

I didn't want to copy the whole article because it's quite long, but the writer raises a good point. What options will China have if US NGOs agitate the Taiwanese population enough to engineer a violent coup, and the post-coup regime declares de jure independence?

 

[Fattyacids]

Crimea was part of Ukraine, Taiwan is neither sovereign nor does it belong to another sovereign country. The status of Crimea encroached into the sovereignty of another country, Taiwan does not.

One-China policy is fully recognized by the UN. Any Taiwanese referendum would be null and void. Equally, an US engineered coup would have no legitimacy and international backing.

I don't know the credential of the author, but I question his analysis for drawing a parallel between the two.

 

[Developereo]

Two points:

- Ukraine is going according to (American) plan. Given the demographics of Crimea and the Russian navy base, the US knew Crimea would be the price to pay for getting Ukraine in the Western fold.

- As for Taiwan, the US has no intention of going to war with China over Taiwan. The US knows China's response to any Taiwanese independence would be military annexation, so the US will exert pressure on Taiwan to maintain the status quo and avoid any provocative escalation.

 

[shuttler]

Asian times is anti-China most of the time
Any such motion by the Taiwanese is going to trigger off a war between the 2 territories
The anti-secession law of China does not allow that to happen
The Taiwanese would have done this a long time ago under the traitor

 

[xunzi]

The only option we have is that of Russia, attack and dare the West to involve militarily. If we lay down, bark, do nothing, and risk being further entanglement by the US and her allies. In a way, we are dealing with a severe geopolitical game that the US will come out as the undisputed hegemony. I also believe this fear will be on any country with regime that is not favorable to the US's interest. They will fear for their life if we are gone because the next regime to face the US will be these weaker one. The US is a dangerous regime-changer. Their tactic is deep root in deception.

 

[flist3773]

Well, I agree with several writers in this forum as well as @Hu Songshan when he mentions that if the West does not recognize the Crimea's vote, then it would be hypocritical if it accepts the Taiwan's independence vote.

I would like to mention several points.

The writer from the AsiaTimes is notoriously anti - China (the guy is Korean). So I would not pay attention to much on to his analysis.

Furthermore, Taiwan's elites as well as businessmen realize that China can shut down Taiwan. Inc without firing a bullet. Look at the Taiwan's trade with China. The fact that it is having that trade surplus with China also indirectly means that there is no domestic demand within Taiwan to support its economic growth. If the pro - independence party carries out a referendum and China sanctions Taiwan or retaliate by economic means, all blames can be put on that party. Furthermore, I am sure intelligence community in China keeps all the data on that pro - independence party so that when time is right, it can release a controversial report regarding that party.

What people should realize from this Ukraine crisis is that the US, the EU and Russia granted China another window of opportunity. I worried because that window of opportunity was about to be closed from Obama's "Asia Pivot" (read: Containment of China). We all should thank those three nations for granting China another opportunity. By the time Obama finishes his term or his successor comes in, the US would think twice about intervening in Asia.

@Martian2 I would love to hear your opinion regarding this matter.

 

[xunzi]

There is no precedence to be set, no rule to be made, or international legal framework to negotiate because might is the rule of the game. The West's hypocrisy showed on many occasions in the past. It is their military power and the whole Western economic system that allow them to to seek regime change without repercussion. Let be honest here, to deter the West from intervention and aggression is through the use of force and dare them to respond. It is a game of chicken. Russia is laughing and winning this battle right now. And Russia is winning by force militarily. With us, it will be a two-pronged war. It will be military AND economic retaliation if the West plays their sanction card. Right now in an economic war, they have an upper hand due to the close-knit economic integration in the West so they can suffer less than we do. But we are catching up and trying to integrate with the rest of developing world so it becomes a game of global economy. However, there is a price to pay for our territorial integrity. We MUST demonstrated to the West that there is no compromise to our territorial integrity. I believe this is also a reason we have not giving compromise on South China Sea. Doing so, the West will exploit our weaknesses and underestimate our resolve in future Taiwan Crisis.

 

[shuttler]

Well, I agree with several writers in this forum as well as @Hu Songshan when he mentions that if the West does not recognize the Crimea's vote, then it would be hypocritical if it accepts the Taiwan's independence vote.
.

This is the least thing they would consider

 

[bolo]

There is no precedence to be set, no rule to be made, or international legal framework to negotiate because might is the rule of the game. The West's hypocrisy showed on many occasions in the past. It is their military power and the whole Western economic system that allow them to to seek regime change without repercussion. Let be honest here, to deter the West from intervention and aggression is through the use of force and dare them to respond. It is a game of chicken. Russia is laughing and winning this battle right now. And Russia is winning by force militarily. With us, it will be a two-pronged war. It will be military AND economic retaliation if the West plays their sanction card. Right now in an economic war, they have an upper hand due to the close-knit economic integration in the West so they can suffer less than we do. But we are catching up and trying to integrate with the rest of developing world so it becomes a game of global economy. However, there is a price to pay for our territorial integrity. We MUST demonstrated to the West that there is no compromise to our territorial integrity. I believe this is also a reason we have not giving compromise on South China Sea. Doing so, the West will exploit our weaknesses and underestimate our resolve in future Taiwan Crisis.

Going forward as long as China remain tough on issues and don't back off on issues that the West want China to back off on, China will gain respect and on its way to driving the US out of Asia. US and Europeans only respect you if they believe you are strong. Being humble against these countries is something China should not do. Same goes for Chinese people on a personal level when dealing with westerners.

 

[xunzi]

Going forward as long as China remain tough on issues and don't back off on issues that the West want China to back off on, China will gain respect and on its way to driving the US out of Asia. US and Europeans only respect you if they believe you are strong. Being humble against these countries is something China should not do. Same goes for Chinese people on a personal level when dealing with westerners.

One thing is for sure, West vs East must be kept in balance. As long as there is geopolitical interest balance, the world will have peace and the so called the "Cold War" will at least not breaking out publicly.

 

[tranquilium]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/CHIN-02-180314.html

I didn't want to copy the whole article because it's quite long, but the writer raises a good point. What options will China have if US NGOs agitate the Taiwanese population enough to engineer a violent coup, and the post-coup regime declares de jure independence?

Plus, you are just looking at the technicalities. We all know what's the real reason behind Crimea: Russia is a strong enough country, so EU and US can't go directly against it. So Russia got what it wanted. It isn't Crimea's vote that ensured their independence, it is Russia's military might and Crimea's vote that did the job with the former a lot more important than the latter. The same thing applies to Taiwan and Mainland.

 

[Sasquatch]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/CHIN-02-180314.html

I didn't want to copy the whole article because it's quite long, but the writer raises a good point. What options will China have if US NGOs agitate the Taiwanese population enough to engineer a violent coup, and the post-coup regime declares de jure independence?

Not going to happen. As much as certain elements in US would like this won't happen. Why ? It would destabilize the global economy, it would be economical disaster for Taipei, if anyone remembers during the DPP rule the US behind the scenes was trying to halt the independence moves despite the rhetoric on defending Taipei .

The balance power has changed both military and economic wise. China can back up threats now then opposed to the 90's or early 2000's. By 2020-2025 as the PLA will be fully modernized and have the full capability of a military invasion as a last resort if needed. @flist3773 Your correct Taipei is economically linked to China, it's military/intelligence is full of mainland spies, this isn't fantasy it's reality spies have given information on Taipei's Missile Defense, Radar Installations, Air assets. You can see them jailing officers and generals in the army/air force.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Two points:

- Ukraine is going according to (American) plan. Given the demographics of Crimea and the Russian navy base, the US knew Crimea would be the price to pay for getting Ukraine in the Western fold.

- As for Taiwan, the US has no intention of going to war with China over Taiwan. The US knows China's response to any Taiwanese independence would be military annexation, so the US will exert pressure on Taiwan to maintain the status quo and avoid any provocative escalation.

Also as @Fattyacids said, Taiwan is not recognized as a "country" by any major government, and not by the UN either (which decides international law). In international organizations and events they use the name "Chinese Taipei".

Hell, even the Taiwanese constitution itself follows this. The ROC still considers itself the "rightful government of all China".

Ukraine on the other hand was an actual country, recognized by everyone and with a seat at the UN.

This is an advantage on our side. No major country right now recognizes Taiwan as an independent country, neither does Taiwan's own constitution and government.

And no one in the world will be willing to break off economic ties with China over Taiwan.

The balance power has changed both military and economic wise. China can back up threats now then opposed to the 90's or early 2000's. By 2020-2025 as the PLA will be fully modernized and have the full capability of a military invasion as a last resort if needed.

2025 is the year for us.

Taiwan has over a decade to think about it. Hopefully the youth of Taiwan will become more and more Chinese nationalist as the power of the Mainland grows in the world. Then maybe by 2025 we will have a huge number of supporters inside Taiwan, and especially within the ROC military. We do have a lot already, but we need more.

I want to see ROC military units defecting en masse to the side of the PRC. Like what happened in Crimea. That's what true Chinese patriots should do, because everyone now knows that the PRC = China.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Also as @Fattyacids said, Taiwan is not recognized as a "country" by any major government, and not by the UN either (which decides international law). In international organizations and events they use the name "Chinese Taipei".

Hell, even the Taiwanese constitution itself follows this. The ROC still considers itself the "rightful government of all China".

Ukraine on the other hand was an actual country, recognized by everyone and with a seat at the UN.

This is an advantage on our side. No major country right now recognizes Taiwan as an independent country, neither does Taiwan's own constitution and government.

And no one in the world will be willing to break off economic ties with China over Taiwan.



2025 is the year for us.

Taiwan has over a decade to think about it. Hopefully the youth of Taiwan will become more and more Chinese nationalist as the power of the Mainland grows in the world. Then maybe by 2025 we will have a huge number of supporters inside Taiwan, and especially within the ROC military. We do have a lot already, but we need more.

I want to see ROC military units defecting en masse to the side of the PRC. Like what happened in Crimea. That's what true Chinese patriots should do, because everyone now knows that the PRC = China.

Then Outer Mongolia will also follow the footprint of Taiwan.

 

[UKBengali]

Also as @Fattyacids said, Taiwan is not recognized as a "country" by any major government, and not by the UN either (which decides international law). In international organizations and events they use the name "Chinese Taipei".

Hell, even the Taiwanese constitution itself follows this. The ROC still considers itself the "rightful government of all China".

Ukraine on the other hand was an actual country, recognized by everyone and with a seat at the UN.

This is an advantage on our side. No major country right now recognizes Taiwan as an independent country, neither does Taiwan's own constitution and government.

And no one in the world will be willing to break off economic ties with China over Taiwan.



2025 is the year for us.

Taiwan has over a decade to think about it. Hopefully the youth of Taiwan will become more and more Chinese nationalist as the power of the Mainland grows in the world. Then maybe by 2025 we will have a huge number of supporters inside Taiwan, and especially within the ROC military. We do have a lot already, but we need more.

I want to see ROC military units defecting en masse to the side of the PRC. Like what happened in Crimea. That's what true Chinese patriots should do, because everyone now knows that the PRC = China.

It is funny but I have always predicted that China will be a peer superpower to the US by 2025.