Rajnath to spell out BJP’s Afghanistan policy

[Dash]

So congress is going to win again?

I am not saying that, but scenario os very tough. Its not gonna be an easy cake for both sides. with Congress rulling in 15 states and BJP in 7-8 the equation is tough. Though I personally prefer BJP to come in elections and win.

But I am sure if BJP comes then Afghan agenda is far more volatile to be judged from a point of manisfasto but rather with sheer consioousness. So all that Rajnath is blabering is nonsense.

 

[Kompromat]

@Neptune

Mark my words, 'There will be NO NATO/ISAF troops left behind.'

Qatar process is about compromise. We allow Americans to pullout peacefully,while Taliban get a power share in Kabul. Pakistan's goal is to make them denounce violance and become a political movement instead.


To achieve that, Pakistan has conducted secret talks with the N.Alliance to reach a compromise with the Taliban.

Right now the Pashtun majority is marginalized and should they say aye to the Taliban as their representatives in the face of an Afghan govt,military and civil service dominated by non Pashtuns, there will be a bloodbath.

If Pakistan succeeds in brokering peace between the two groups, India will not be in a position to minipulate Afghanistan and would become irrelavent. If Afghanistan is at peace Pakistan can replace Indian investment with Chinese,Pakistani,Turkish and Arab investment.

India has invested $2 billion in Afghanistan even though that money can be best used in their own country home to some 40% of malnourished kids on planet earth.

They hope that, 2 billion will allow them to buy stooges and achieve goals that two superpowers have failed to achieve with trillions of dollars and humanity's largest most destructive war machines.

Indian establishment knows its limitations but its citizens especially the rich and those who can afford a computer with a second hand keyboard,motivated by their right wing jingoistic media don't. They are delusioned and grossly overestimate their ability to alter events.


@Black Widow

Goodluck with the 'transit'.

 

[kena]

@Neptune

Mark my words, 'There will be NO NATO/ISAF troops left behind.'

Qatar process is about compromise. We allow Americans to pullout peacefully,while Taliban get a power share in Kabul. Pakistan's goal is to make them denounce violance and become a political movement instead.


To achieve that, Pakistan has conducted secret talks with the N.Alliance to reach a compromise with the Taliban.

Right now the Pashtun majority is marginalized and should they say aye to the Taliban as their representatives in the face of an Afghan govt,military and civil service dominated by non Pashtuns, there will be a bloodbath.

If Pakistan succeeds in brokering peace between the two groups, India will not be in a position to minipulate Afghanistan and would become irrelavent. If Afghanistan is at peace Pakistan can replace Indian investment with Chinese,Pakistani,Turkish and Arab investment.

India has invested $2 billion in Afghanistan even though that money can be best used in their own country home to some 40% of malnourished kids on planet earth.

They hope that, 2 billion will allow them to buy stooges and achieve goals that two superpowers have failed to achieve with trillions of dollars and humanity's largest most destructive war machines.

Indian establishment knows its limitations but its citizens especially the rich and those who can afford a computer with a second hand keyboard,motivated by their right wing jingoistic media don't. They are delusioned and grossly overestimate their ability to alter events.


@Black Widow

Goodluck with the 'transit'.

Therein lies the catch! I wonder if Pakistan is not being too optimistic about the possibilities of forging, and then maintaining long term unity between mutually hostile tribal groups. Afghanistan is a multi ethnic country and has no history of peaceful coexistence between factions unless enforced by an external power. Unlike India, Afghans have no concept of nationalism. It is only the tribal loyalties that count. The Pushtoon, a South Asian convert, may be numerous - but I believe he is also wilder, more fanatic and less disciplined. So real power of a modern state is mostly held by tribes of a Central Asian Origin. Why should they give up their privileged position?

It may be that after NATO withdrawal, Afghanistan lapses into a "free for all" - which is its default state. Not a good scenario for Pakistan.

 

[Yzd Khalifa]

I believe regardless of who's in power the core objectives of Indian Afghan cell will remain the same. There will only be a few politically motivated differences depending on who's in office.

Perhaps, but change may come and go in every country's FP.

Except special relations though

 

[surya kiran]

@Neptune

Mark my words, 'There will be NO NATO/ISAF troops left behind.'

Qatar process is about compromise. We allow Americans to pullout peacefully,while Taliban get a power share in Kabul. Pakistan's goal is to make them denounce violance and become a political movement instead.


To achieve that, Pakistan has conducted secret talks with the N.Alliance to reach a compromise with the Taliban.

Right now the Pashtun majority is marginalized and should they say aye to the Taliban as their representatives in the face of an Afghan govt,military and civil service dominated by non Pashtuns, there will be a bloodbath.

If Pakistan succeeds in brokering peace between the two groups, India will not be in a position to minipulate Afghanistan and would become irrelavent. If Afghanistan is at peace Pakistan can replace Indian investment with Chinese,Pakistani,Turkish and Arab investment.

India has invested $2 billion in Afghanistan even though that money can be best used in their own country home to some 40% of malnourished kids on planet earth.

They hope that, 2 billion will allow them to buy stooges and achieve goals that two superpowers have failed to achieve with trillions of dollars and humanity's largest most destructive war machines.

Indian establishment knows its limitations but its citizens especially the rich and those who can afford a computer with a second hand keyboard,motivated by their right wing jingoistic media don't. They are delusioned and grossly overestimate their ability to alter events.


@Black Widow

Goodluck with the 'transit'.

Funny that you should mention Pakistan will invest. Pakistan is in no position to invest in any country. not for the next 10 years. Turkey is more concerned with the Europeans. Any Turkish involvement in Afghanistan will result in an Iranian backlash. The only viable avenues for investment in Afghanistan remain the US, China, India and Russia. Japan will provide humanitarian aid. Brazil is too far away to be bothered. No other country or group of countries today has the capacity to invest.

The withdrawal of US forces is what the Americans are waiting for, before the noose tightens around Pakistan. You will see a considerable tilt in US policy once, the 'transit' is complete. For reference, see what happened in the earlier US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Taliban will speak to anybody. Sometimes, I think the Taliban have a better sense of interests than the Pakistani establishment.

As for Indian investments, its for our interests. Something that Pakistanis can never understand since national interest = military as far as Pakistanis are concerned. You should update information on how the Indian economy is performing and how poverty is getting eradicated.

Your misrepresentation of facts is clearly visible when you compare Indian involvement to the US and Soviets. Wishes and opinions are one thing, facts completely different. The only backlash which is going to take place is as follows:

1. Increased support to militant organisation in Pakistan, resulting in 30 more years of mayhem.
2. Increase in violence in Kashmir, resulting in an Indian retaliation in Balochistan and Sindh.

 

[kena]

Funny that you should mention Pakistan will invest. Pakistan is in no position to invest in any country. not for the next 10 years. Turkey is more concerned with the Europeans. Any Turkish involvement in Afghanistan will result in an Iranian backlash. The only viable avenues for investment in Afghanistan remain the US, China, India and Russia. Japan will provide humanitarian aid. Brazil is too far away to be bothered. No other country or group of countries today has the capacity to invest.

The withdrawal of US forces is what the Americans are waiting for, before the noose tightens around Pakistan. You will see a considerable tilt in US policy once, the 'transit' is complete. For reference, see what happened in the earlier US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Taliban will speak to anybody. Sometimes, I think the Taliban have a better sense of interests than the Pakistani establishment.

As for Indian investments, its for our interests. Something that Pakistanis can never understand since national interest = military as far as Pakistanis are concerned. You should update information on how the Indian economy is performing and how poverty is getting eradicated.

Your misrepresentation of facts is clearly visible when you compare Indian involvement to the US and Soviets. Wishes and opinions are one thing, facts completely different. The only backlash which is going to take place is as follows:

1. Increased support to militant organisation in Pakistan, resulting in 30 more years of mayhem.
2. Increase in violence in Kashmir, resulting in an Indian retaliation in Balochistan and Sindh.

Yes, the tribal infighting with engulf Pakistan too. Fortunately for us, Pakistan stands as a rock solid buffer between us and the marauding tribals. The invader will be spent on the plains of Punjab.

Isn't that the role Punjab has always played for the sub-continent.

 

[Kompromat]

@kena

Thats incorrect to say that they don't have a history of peaceful coexistence WITH self rule.

However, i do agree that they hold no singular identity. Onlything common between them is Islam and any future political setup aimed at a unified Afghanistan will be rooted in political Islam.

Pakistan has made clear to the Taliban that,there will be no 'Shari'ah State' in Afghanistan,however we do wish to emulate the Turkish model of Islam rooted democracy.

For Pakistan, Afghanistan in its current form is unacceptable. We are having to deal with not only their political chaos and refugees but also the prospect of another futile bloodbath.

We don't want it, but its something we have to put up with it.

 

[Neptune]

@Aeronaut Bro, we're gonna stay in Afghanistan. I mean what will be Pakistan/India's policy towards those post-2014 troops?


US says Italy, Germany and Turkey will join its post-2014 Afghan force*|*Starfm.co.ke

Yilmaz: Turkish soldiers will stay in Afghanistan even if NATO withdraws Anadolu Agency

 

[Argus Panoptes]

BJP's policy will look like this.


* Re-inventing Northern Alliance.

* Begging Americans to not allow Taliban to become a political partisan which would mean civil war or peace otherwise.

* Indian interests lie at non reconciliation of the two Afghan sides. If Pakistan succeeds in its Qatar initiative to bring a national representative govt, with Taliban getting the piece of the pie in govt making, India cannot fabricate instability in Afghanistan as instability and economic situation in Afghanistan justifies Indian presence there.

* India's key objective is to create a hostile border for Pakistan which in turn will weaken our non nuclear deterrent capability against India. Through that it can keep a window open to funnel arms and aid to its proxies in Pakistan's tribal belt and Balochistan .India has come to realize that Pakistan will not be eradicated,therefore it wants to maintain instability in Pakistan to keep it economically stagnant using its proxies to create a dangerous security environment where foreign investment dries up, Pakistan isn't economically competitive to India and therefore will remain a non competitor which will allow India to compete with China.

* Pakistan's key objective is to bring about a national reconciliation govt in Afghanistan which includes the Taliban and other Pashtun majority into the fold of governing Afghanistan. Pakistan has been secretly negotiating with Northren Alliance elements to bring about a peace and reconciliation process leading into a national representative govt as well as a national representative Armed forces.

* Pakistan's key interest is to have a "secure" Afghan border, which allows us to focus our non nuclear deterrent totally committed towards India. It becomes more important to have a full conventional deployment on the Indian border with the rise of the extreme right in India. This will allow Pakistan to maintain a balance of power both conventional and non conventional which in turn will improve the security situation in Pakistan and will result in a better growing economy.

* This is where Indian and Pakistani interests collide, India will try everything it can to maintain an Afghanistan it can exploit for its sinister purpose of destabilizing Pakistan and Afghanistan, so that it could attain its long held dream of regional hegemony. This visit is just a reflection of the mindset that directs Indian strategy towards Afghanistan.

* Qatar process may not be the last Pakistani effort to bring about a national representative govt in Afghanistan,however if India succeeds in sabotage of this process it can delay it further and with a speeding up US pullout the security cloud is about to be changed which will allow any unwanted civil conflict to spark in Afghanistan. Pakistan knows what its doing,India knows what its doing. Whoever wins BEFORE the NATO pullout will have a stronger say in what happens in Afghanistan post 2014.

Best Regards.

@A-Team @Pak-one @Armstrong @Hyperion @Xeric @Icarus @F.O.X @Luftwaffe @Last Hope @muse @Argus Panoptes @Yzd Khalifa @TaimiKhan @Neptune

Sometimes it is useful to put on the other party's thinking cap as an exercise. What would you do @Aeronaut as India's policy maker? Much of what you say is very logical in the India's national interests would be best served by measure you highlight above.

Now back to our own thinking cap: Pakistan needs to protect its own vital national interests post 2014 too. How we counter-act the inevitable clashes that will occur will determine whose interests will prevail. How can we best do that?

 

[surya kiran]

Yes, the tribal infighting with engulf Pakistan too. Fortunately for us, Pakistan stands as a rock solid buffer between us and the marauding tribals. The invader will be spent on the plains of Punjab.

Isn't that the role Punjab has always played for the sub-continent.

Yup, I for one am really glad that Pakistan exists, even if there are irritants, the opponent is conventional and is less interested in dying, than the nuts on the Pak western border, who believe the reason for being born is to earn the name Shaheed.

@Aeronaut Bro, we're gonna stay in Afghanistan. I mean what will be Pakistan/India's policy towards those post-2014 troops?


US says Italy, Germany and Turkey will join its post-2014 Afghan force*|*Starfm.co.ke

Yilmaz: Turkish soldiers will stay in Afghanistan even if NATO withdraws Anadolu Agency

Indian policy is governed by one single fact, we don't want insurgent training to happen in Afghanistan, which will increase, if I may put it politely increase our work load. If this means talking to the Taliban, the GoI will talk to the Taliban.

There will be no ground troops of the IA in Afghanisatan. There will be economic investments and social aid which will be provided by the GoI. This commitment will stand.

 

[Kompromat]

@Neptune

If Team Turkey [your C.asian allies] join team Pakistan [GCC,China,Iran] .... We can rebuild Afghanistan and it will result in a huge strategic shift in the region.

Pakistan has a long held agenda of reaching Turkey via land route. It was highlighted by our father Jinnah himself. It makes little sense to people today,but when it happens the purpose will become apparent.

 

[kena]

@kena

Thats incorrect to say that they don't have a history of peaceful coexistence WITH self rule.

However, i do agree that they hold no singular identity. Onlything common between them is Islam and any future political setup aimed at a unified Afghanistan will be rooted in political Islam.

Pakistan has made clear to the Taliban that,there will be no 'Shari'ah State' in Afghanistan,however we do wish to emulate the Turkish model of Islam rooted democracy.

For Pakistan, Afghanistan in its current form is unacceptable. We are having to deal with not only their political chaos and refugees but also the prospect of another futile bloodbath.

We don't want it, but its something we have to put up with it.

I m afraid the Turkish model may be wishful thinking. On the one hand, you want Islam as cement between the Pukhtoon, Tazik and the Uzbek, and on the other you want to downplay Islam in public life. Islam as cement wont work anyway - the tribals are too wild and in-disciplined. I have relatives who migrated from the NWFP and they say that the Pushtoons lust for loot and plunder is congenital.

 

[kena]

Sorry. Double posting

 

[Kompromat]

@kena

Now we are going towards cultural stereotypes and urban legends. Its not my domain.

Political Islam is something that can unite the splinter groups. Pakistan has to deal with Afghanistan by compulsion. I believe what Pakistan will do is to have the groups united on the basis of a new Afghan constitution rooted in Islam,where it does play a major part in the public life.

We don't want public executions and moral policing.

 

[Neptune]

@Aeronaut I don't know man. US is thinking to give the the command of post-OEF Troops to Turkey. As Erdogan has positive feels towards that. Which means we'll definetly ally with you in Afghanistan issue but I can't give a promise on the other players in the team. I mean what will be the policy of leader country in afghanistan against our (US, Germany, Italy, Turkey) troops?