Rafale OR fgfa NOT both is the dilemma Facing IAF

[Storm Force]

7 MONTHS ago i started a thread suggesting that INDIAN MMRCA project for Rafale was in danger of being cancelled. Based on signals and media comments that i was reading all over the place and using my own good judgement.

Since then 2 further developments have taken place leading me to summarise the dilemma facing the indian military ie the AIRFORCE.

The first is that indian growth forcasts have been curtailed folowing a global slowdown latest figures show INDIAN GDP growing at around 4.5 to 5% ANNUALLY for next 4 years much lower than the near 9% in last decade. Massive rupee devaluation recently also highlights the financial isues.

second we learnt last week that the indo russian contract to finally agree a cost/timescale/work share/TOT etc on the indian version of the PAK FA is to be delayed by 12 months minimum.
Had the deal been signed in NOV coming next month as was expected IAF would have receiced 3 prototpes for FGFA by 2019.

Rafale we now know is dragging on for various issues road blocks being imposed by INDIANS as we speak.

IN SUMMARY my reading of this situation is simply this IAF PLANS to acquire or sign up 2 different HIGHLY ADVANCED FIGHTERS that will serve the indian air force for next 35 years did not take ccount that EACH PROJECT was going to cost $25 billion EACH.

this sum of money IS NOT POSSIBLE by any nation on EARTH bar CHINA & USA.

as a nation WE HAVE MESSED UP THE FINANCIALS completely.

IMO the FUTURE RAFALE fighter has envisaged by the FRENCH will be a near fifth gen fighter with various upgrades it will remain in service until 2040+ withy FRANCE and others.

THE PAK FA will arrive for RUSSIA in next 5 years about the time IAF is set to start license production of the RAFALE if we sign on the $25 billion line.

As far as i am concerned in the face of falling sdqs nos CHINA massive milutary build up IAF have realised that they CANT COMMITT to both hyper expensive projects.

ONE HAS TO FALL BY THE SIDE

BUT WHICH ONE

 

[Storm Force]

When you look at GLOBAL air powers countries with the same or similar budgets as the IAF have laid their futures on one fighter project only

how the hell are IAF suppose to FUND and acquire TWO massive costly platforms over a simlar timeframe

eg

ISRAEL will go for F35
SAUDI WILL GO FOR Typhoon and upgrafe F15 eagles to SILENT standard
Germany & the RAF the Typhoon
France the RAFALE


we are looking at 3 possiblly 4 projects if we include NAVY MIG29 and other future platforms.

fOR A NATION RELYINMG ON IMPORTS for hese macxhines its madness

 

[black_jack]

bullshit analysis IAF will go for both , FGFA will not be available till 2021-22

 

[bandit]

It's not a money issue, its the tech transfer not being agreed on.

I believe just scrap the french if they hardball too long and sign up EF with tech transfer.

 

[1971+]

It's not a money issue, its the tech transfer not being agreed on.

I believe just scrap the french if they hardball too long and sign up EF with tech transfer.

What makes you think EFT deal will go smoothly when they would be fully knowing that they are Indian's last resort.


The key Indian negotiating with French died few days back due to heart attack so more delay is expected. I think new government will only decide whether to scrap it or go with it. Congress doesn't want CBI under new government hunting them down for kickbacks .

 

[bandit]

What makes you think EFT deal will go smoothly when they would be fully knowing that they are Indian's last resort.


The key Indian negotiating with French died few days back due to heart attack so more delay is expected. I think new government will only decide whether to scrap it or go with it. Congress doesn't want CBI under new government hunting them down for kickbacks .

Because EF has already been passed over, if they want to still have a shot, they will have to offer something Dassault cannot.
Right now that is Tech transfer.

Eurofighter still in race for India jet deal: CEO | Reuters

Reuters) - The chief of the Eurofighter Typhoon said on Monday that it is still in the race for a fighter jet deal in India as British Prime Minster David Cameron began his tour to win new trade in the Asian country.

"We believe the Eurofighter is still there," Eurofighter Chief Executive Enzo Casolini said at a press briefing in Abu Dhabi. "We are on standby, in case they come back to us."

 

[1971+]

Because EF has already been passed over, if they want to still have a shot, they will have to offer something Dassault cannot.
Right now that is Tech transfer.

Eurofighter still in race for India jet deal: CEO | Reuters

EFT has never been negotiated. Rafael was first and EFT was second favorable and till that point path treaded by both of them were common , final negations about sharing of key techs was done with neither of them . The article you are quoting is very old and we can't afford to waste two more years over negotiating final terms with EFT too.

 

[anant_s]

If Rafale deal falls apart (something tells it won't), it will be a bigger setback for Dassault and French Industry in general. I however donot understand why we are comparing Rafale with FGFA, Rafale is a replacement for Migs and honestly unless LCA Mk 2 comes up and shows the potential, we have little choice. FGFA is still atleast 6-8 years away (atleast) and no government can run an Air force with large number of retirements (& attrition losses) just on an upcoming fighter.
Like it or not, Rafale will don IAF's colors.

 

[1971+]

If Rafale deal falls apart (something tells it won't), it will be a bigger setback for Dassault and French Industry in general. I however donot understand why we are comparing Rafale with FGFA, Rafale is a replacement for Migs and honestly unless LCA Mk 2 comes up and shows the potential, we have little choice. FGFA is still atleast 6-8 years away (atleast) and no government can run an Air force with large number of retirements (& attrition losses) just on an upcoming fighter.
Like it or not, Rafale will don IAF's colors.

Yes Browne was very vocal about it on 81'st anniversary of IAF. Deal won't fall threw since we need Rafael to replenish steadly depleting squadron strength. By 2017 Mig-21 and Jaguars would be decommissioned .

I think this deal is necessary for Rafael's survival but nothing is more paramount than one's defence so I would consider this deal as more important for us than Rafael.

Does India has back up plan if this deal falls threw?? Can we order for similar number of Su-35 with new engines ??

 

[Raje amar]

I strongly expect the deal will be finalized this December. No need to be speculative. The deal is equally important for both French and India.

Yes Browne was very vocal about it on 81'st anniversary of IAF. Deal won't fall threw since we need Rafael to replenish steadly depleting squadron strength. By 2017 Mig-21 and Jaguars would be decommissioned .

I think this deal is necessary for Rafael's survival but nothing is more paramount than one's defence so I would consider this deal as more important for us than Rafael.

Does India has back up plan if this deal falls threw?? Can we order for similar number of Su-35 with new engines ??

Russians will love to see this comes true. 200 jets........

They will happyly supply them to your liking.

 

[MKI 30]

It would be foolish to say the deal would be signed by this December. And with the demise of the top negotiator the situation will only worsen. The new man would take some time to be fully accommodated in the process.

Can anybody please share the points on which we seem to be struck? What are the Indian concerns?

 

[agni 6]

French are refusing some engine tot which was agreed to thereby we decided to buy this uber expensive toy.Since then as a fall back measure we have revived the Kaveri program and if all goes well it will power the LCA mk2 at a later date.If frenchies don't agree in time before our indigenous engine reaches some maturity in 2-3 yrs, its bye bye to Rafael and in the meantime we are going to ramp up Lca mk1 and Lca mk2 with GE 404 and GE 414 engines and extra Sukhoi-mki while the IAF roughs it for another 2 years.FGFA has nothing to do with it since we will get miniscule TOT and will just finance the plane and get it by 2022.

 

[agni 6]

If it was not for the Engine TOT the maths is something like this

Estimated Cost of Rafale USD 150 Million

Estimated Cost of Su-30MKI is USD 60 Million, LCA USD 20 Million, upgraded radar equipped Jaguar is USD 20 Million and HTT-40 for CAS is USD 10 Million

So instead of 126 Rafales we can have 126 Su-30MKI, 378 LCA, 126 upgraded radar equipped Jaguar and 126 HTT-40

 

[agni 6]

In both cases whether we go for Rafale(with engine TOT) or the second option as I have outlined, Russia will get nothing except some royalty in 126 Sukhoi 30MKI.That is why they are cribbing like Dehati Aurat.

 

[Storm Force]

Whose ChaCha is going to fund. Estimated 50 billion for both mmrca and fgfa.

We are not rich country like the Saudi nour do we China GDP and forex.


Surely it makes sense to

1 scrap rafale purchase rough it with second hand mirage 2000 and developed tejas into six dads by 2024.