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Rafale is not a Game Changer - Senior Analyst Shahzad Chaudhry

AMCA is minimum 25 years away, if not more. India is still reinventing lots of wheels. Plus, Indian state owned companies need a proper project management for their development projects. As such their projects are late even before they are conceived. So, we will know what and how good it is, when it will arrive.
Which is why I am shocked that India decided to pull out of the FGFA program and then purchase the S-400, killing any chances of purchasing the F-35s. What was India trying to accomplish here? Does India not want 5th generation aircraft in a realistic timeframe? Whoever is running IAF procurement really needs to get booted.
 
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It is a game changer in that sense but IAF need 200 Rafales in their fleet not just 18.
It is 36 now.
And as you said, AMCA is not for tomorrow. You can expect some more Rafale purchase from India. 36 more is a very minimum. 200 seems a dream. My opinion, for years, is 100 to 120.
 
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It is 36 now.
And as you said, AMCA is not for tomorrow. You can expect some more Rafale purchase from India. 36 more is a very minimum. 200 seems a dream. My opinion, for years, is 100 to 120.
The curious thing is that the original Rafale purchase was supposed to be 110 or 120 but got scaled down to 36.
 
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Which is why I am shocked that India decided to pull out of the FGFA program and then purchase the S-400, killing any chances of purchasing the F-35s. What was India trying to accomplish here? Does India not want 5th generation aircraft in a realistic timeframe? Whoever is running IAF procurement really needs to get booted.
Maybe because India, as US navy, don't think the so called 5th gen is key.
Watch US navy : they are not very keen on F35C, but want more SH18. same for destroyer : why do they purchase always more Arleigh Burke not specially stealth units? Stealth is over hyped.
 
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The curious thing is that the original Rafale purchase was supposed to be 110 or 120 but got scaled down to 36.
Not really. such a figure was MMRCA1 (114 units).
The differents figures of GtoG past negociations was for 40 units.

The drama for India was to leave the Mirage 2000 line closed. I'm quite sure a big purchase would have seen a complete transfer of the line in India. They let Dassault scrapped the line....

Imagine IAF now with 100+ more Mirage 2000-5 !!!
 
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Not really. such a figure was MMRCA1 (114 units).
The differents figures of GtoG past negociations was for 40 units.

The drama for India was to leave the Mirage 2000 line closed. I'm quite sure a big purchase would have seen a complete transfer of the line in India. They let Dassault scrapped the line....

Imagine IAF now with 100+ more Mirage 2000-5 !!!
Either way the biggest loser in all of this is Russia. They must be seething that India pulled out of the FGFA program and have not bought any more of their newer aircraft. The Russian aviation industry desperately needed India to fill the export void left by China and now this seems out of question.
 
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Either way the biggest loser in all of this is Russia. They must be seething that India pulled out of the FGFA program and have not bought any more of their newer aircraft. The Russian aviation industry desperately needed India to fill the export void left by China and now this seems out of question.
No. India baught some months ago some more SU30 and Mig29.
 
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It is 36 now.
And as you said, AMCA is not for tomorrow. You can expect some more Rafale purchase from India. 36 more is a very minimum. 200 seems a dream. My opinion, for years, is 100 to 120.
Just imagine - if India bought 272 Rafale or 272 Mirage-2000....I hope India buys many more Rafales and possible F-35.
 
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Not really. such a figure was MMRCA1 (114 units).
The differents figures of GtoG past negociations was for 40 units.

The drama for India was to leave the Mirage 2000 line closed. I'm quite sure a big purchase would have seen a complete transfer of the line in India. They let Dassault scrapped the line....

Imagine IAF now with 100+ more Mirage 2000-5 !!!
Maybe, some amount of over-confidence on our (India) part that we can develop LCA in time........I guess nothing is lost (as there were no wars) as long as India manages to get lot of manufacturing of Rafale into India, absorbs technology and Indian private industry catches up.....
 
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Which is why I am shocked that India decided to pull out of the FGFA program and then purchase the S-400, killing any chances of purchasing the F-35s. What was India trying to accomplish here? Does India not want 5th generation aircraft in a realistic timeframe? Whoever is running IAF procurement really needs to get booted.
India pulled out, as India is not getting much (design; know how etc) in return for the investment....
 
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Maybe, some amount of over-confidence on our (India) part that we can develop LCA in time........I guess nothing is lost (as there were no wars) as long as India manages to get lot of manufacturing of Rafale into India, absorbs technology and Indian private industry catches up.....
The last rumors (nothing official if I remember well) here in France, was that Dassault was ready to give assembly in India with a next order of 36.
The bigger is the order, the most easy it is to create a deep private aeronautical cluster in India.

For exemple (just my exemple)
36 more = just assembly.
72 = assembly + a part of the components made in India.
108 = assembly + 80% of the componentns in India.
etc.....
 
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India pulled out, as India is not getting much (design; know how etc) in return for the investment....
Not to mention, FGFA was not even on track and was compromising on a lot of 5th gen choices.
 
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You are right. They were over optimistic by trying at a beginning to produce a so small fighter (it's harder to make small than bigger) and to link it with a national engine.
At the end the bird is short leg, not agile as imagined, with a foreign engine and radar. Lack of realism.
i would be cautious of tejas.... gnat was under-estimated as well.
 
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i would be cautious of tejas.... gnat was under-estimated as well.
YES----Even the Migs.

This is why Pakistan Air force is in need a new type with different envelops.

Indian is slowly but surely climbing the Ladder they do have the equipment but not the tactics and Rafael is a game changer if those tactics are properly employed PAF will have a tough time with Rafaels.
 
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