You hit the nail but with one small difference.
Imagine the production line in 2 places
1. In Merignac
2. In say an Aerospace SEZ in Maharastra or Andhra Pradesh - INDIA
In Merignac, the productivity rate and fixed assets already setup, depreciated and running on book value investment cost along with 600+ local OEMs with whom Dassault has build a value chain with over avg relationship age of 15 years
Over to India - A fresh setup, costs at market value of real time investments going to books and slow depreciation initiated for plant and machinery coupled with local ecosystem creation for Dassault value chain OEMs implies minimum of 30% higher cost than whats the cost in Merignac up till break even is achieved and economies of scale kicks in.
Now lets use Finance 101 analogy here,
Define few terms here
Selling Price per Unit
Fixed Cost per Unit
Variable Cost per Unit
We get Contribution per unit = Selling price per unit - variable cost per unit
PV Ratio =( Contribution per unit / Selling price per unit) x 100
Break even point = Fixed Cost / Contribution per Unit
Break even (in value) = Fixed Cost / PV Ratio
If Dassault does setup the local unit and supply chain OEMs, the variable cost would be a bit higher than Merignac thus Selling price per unit would also be higher per unit
The only way we can achieve the lowering of cost per unit or selling price per unit and decrease in variable cost is when we apply economies of scale or higher numbers beyond Break even units
Thus, we cannot fix the value of Indian made Rafales right now as variable cost is undetermined.
A simple rule like a 10-15 years tax holiday for all OEMs to setup shop can significantly bring down setup cost for individual OEMs and thereby decrease the variable cost angle of Dassault production line
If the Land is say government alloted the cost of acquisition may be minimal thereby reducing Fixed Cost aspect implying again it lowers the cost of production and finally decreases the selling price per unit along with tax holiday consideration
For this they require a far more clarity under Make In India scheme and the tax sops and other support government may give for the entire value chain and Dassault together.
I hope you are getting what i am trying to point here why its so difficult to lock in future rafale prices right now.. especially if its not Merignac production line..
Meteor is far costly bro, Astra 2 may come in sooner now with success of dual pulse motor in another missile (Barak8). We may buy meteor later or may be we may buy very limited quantity.
Having Astra 1 and 2 makes more sense for maintaining a common pool of armaments and also increasing the local produced missile numbers and requirements.