What's new

Predicting when China could pass the USA on nominal GDP

onebyone

SENIOR MEMBER
Joined
Jul 2, 2014
Messages
7,550
Reaction score
-6
Country
Thailand
Location
Thailand
90309ebe0912fa0b7408e432396c2454-730x430.png



The IMF has a relatively smooth forecast for nominal GDP growth out to 2022 for all countries.

The forecast China to close the gap from $7 trillion less than the USA in nominal GDP in 2020 to $6 trillion less than the USA in nominal GDP in 2022. They have a slightly accelerating trend to the gains in GDP for China.

Extrapolating the IMF forecast would indicate that China would pass the USA in nominal GDP in 2030 to 2032.

90309ebe0912fa0b7408e432396c2454-1024x642.png


In 2015, IHS forecast that China would pass the USA nominal GDP in 2024.

b016fe96d94baa822c79653f7d8f150c-738x1024.png



https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/08/predicting-when-china-could-pass-the-usa-on-nominal-gdp.html
 
. . . .
Article is a little confusing, it says "Extrapolating the IMF forecast would indicate that China would pass the USA in nominal GDP in 2030 to 2032." then on the graph, it shows China having larger nominal GDP than the USA in 2025 by about 5%.
 
.
My guess is around 2035, give or take two or three years depending on growth rate. China's GDP already surpassed US in 2015 if you use PPP as measure.
 
. .
And anyone here cares to DEFINE what are the exact components that form the basis for the GDP calculation for each nation? At least for the Top-5 or Top-10?

Does anyone care to know that each country can have its own definition in calculating such GDP?

Just for illustration: Britain in an effort to increase its GDP has been incorporating the economies of grey areas (vice economies like gambling and prostitution) into its GDP number since 2015 or 2016 (iirc). Just go figure by oneself what's inside the USA number when it produces so little while consumes so many ... :-)

[Edit] I will go further a bit to give some ideas:

- Military budget
- Healthcare / Obamacare expenses
- Various social allowances (EBT/SNAP/Food Stamps; Single Mother's allowance; Disabilities' Allowance, etc)
- War expenses in Afghanistan, Iraq
- etc etc

all these lion share expenditures of the annual federal budget will be counted into the GDP calc regardless the sources of financing of these expenses, own money or borrowed ones; or whether or not these expenses will bring any benefit or progress to the nation or not.

In brief a nation can jack up its GDP number by among other increases its spending even though such spending is a waste. And debt is not counted in GDP as well as its service payment.

Here's an easy reading yet still shed some light on the flaws of GDP calc:
https://www.quora.com/What-are-some-problems-with-using-GDP-as-a-measure-of-economic-development

Ofc there are more heavier reading if one searches and digs around deeper.

Please don't ask me, I don't have the comprehensive answer :D:lol: I just love to tease around the magical GDP measurement around those thinking minds :chilli: Red Pills - Blue Pills

Lowkey... yes lowkey!
 
Last edited:
.
When will chinese currency take over US$ as worlds no 1 currency? The day $ will die will be the death of USA.
 
.
When will chinese currency take over US$ as worlds no 1 currency? The day $ will die will be the death of USA.
No, the question will be, when will the demonetised Rupees to take over Mericon dollars?
 
.

Latest posts

Pakistan Defence Latest Posts

Pakistan Affairs Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom