Maarkhoor
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Power shortfall in Pakistan and the possible solutions.
The electricity shortfall reached 4,760 megawatt while the country is generating 13,240 megawatt of electricity and the current demand is 18,000 megawatt.According to Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO), the reason behind the current shortfall is the reduction in the production of electricity the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) due to the shortage of oil and gas supply,private news channel reported.As the electricity demand goes up in Lahore, an increase has also occurred in the unscheduled load shedding. The city is facing a load shedding of 10 to 12 hours a day.
The scheduled electricity load shedding in Karachi is 10 hours but the power has been suspended for 14 hours a day in the city. The Karachiits are also facing an acute water shortage due to the absence of electricity.The daily power outage increased up to 16 hours a day in rural areas of the country.
Reasons:
Poor governance, incompetence, lack of transparency, distribution and transmission losses (a euphemism for theft), have made powering Pakistan a transmission Impossible.
Poor Governance & Lack of transparency:
Collection:
Collection is another challenge, where the distribution companies fail to collect outstanding dues from consumers. The recovery rate ranges between 80 per cent to 90 per cent. Dr Musadik Malik, who holds a doctorate in Pharmacy and advises Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on energy, offers an analogy that I have adapted below.
Let us assume that Pakistan generates 100 units of electricity. The system loses 22 units to theft. Thus, only 78 units reach consumers. We further assume that the distribution companies collect approximately 85 per cent of the amounts billed to consumers. The system, therefore, recovers revenue for only 66 units of the 100 generated.
Subsidy:
Now comes the subsidy. Since it costs 14 cents to generate a unit of electricity, and the average tariff charged is 11.5 cents, the system recovers revenue at full cost for a mere 54 units.
Effectively, the total loss from transmission losses, theft, recovery, and subsidies is 46 per cent. This leads us to the other self-inflicted financial wound, i.e., the circular debt.
Circular debt:
Each year, it adds up to billions of dollars. Why, you may ask. According to the CIA World Fact Book, Pakistan generated 94.65 billion kWh in 2011. Since it costs the system 14 cents to generate a kWh of electricity and the real recovery rate is merely 54 per cent, the total annual circular debt is estimated at US$6 billion.
Incompetence:
The IPP's at current are responsible to provide electricity to half of our country. As the Govt. did not pay their debt so now they are charging or demanding higher per unit prices from the consumers. This hike in electricity prices is affecting not only our local industries and homes but is also affecting our exports of manufacturing goods. The govt. must intervene and pay out the circular debt. Or provide subsidy on electricity.
Distribution:
most electricity transmission lines here in Pakistan are incapable of transmitting electric voltages of more than two phases. This makes them in-compatible to carry higher voltages, so even if we produce 3 phase electricity, it would be of no use in this case. We need to upgrade our transmission lines.
we lack high quality lower end grids that are used to carry electricity from power houses to the ultimate consumers via grid stations. The infrastructure is old and deteriorated. The system is unable to sustain extreme weather conditions hence most of the grids shut down at extreme temperature or either completely stops working.
Transmission Losses:
I identified that WAPDA is facing huge line losses due to electricity theft or illegal usage of electricity. The burden is beard by the Government so in order to cover up such losses and to ensure adequate and clean facility of electricity; we must ensure that no body breaks into the transmission system.
Lack of new Projects:
Dams
In case of Dams the water flow is restricted by the making a huge storage device and the head of water is increased, the water then is allows to flow by means of gates and pass through the turbine, the head of reservoir level is maintained to provide uniform power and the water stored in the season additionally is used for irrigation purpose in the dry season. no new dams are being constructed even the announced projects are far behind completion date:
Run of the river projects
In the run of river project the water is diverted through the tunnel and once it gain the head allowed to fall and pass through the turbine and back too river. The water in these projects is continuously flowing and not being stored.
Geographical situation is paramount importance in choosing the suitable site for the hydel project and it evolves a very serious time and money consuming study.
The electricity shortfall reached 4,760 megawatt while the country is generating 13,240 megawatt of electricity and the current demand is 18,000 megawatt.According to Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO), the reason behind the current shortfall is the reduction in the production of electricity the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) due to the shortage of oil and gas supply,private news channel reported.As the electricity demand goes up in Lahore, an increase has also occurred in the unscheduled load shedding. The city is facing a load shedding of 10 to 12 hours a day.
The scheduled electricity load shedding in Karachi is 10 hours but the power has been suspended for 14 hours a day in the city. The Karachiits are also facing an acute water shortage due to the absence of electricity.The daily power outage increased up to 16 hours a day in rural areas of the country.
Reasons:
Poor governance, incompetence, lack of transparency, distribution and transmission losses (a euphemism for theft), have made powering Pakistan a transmission Impossible.
Poor Governance & Lack of transparency:
Collection:
Collection is another challenge, where the distribution companies fail to collect outstanding dues from consumers. The recovery rate ranges between 80 per cent to 90 per cent. Dr Musadik Malik, who holds a doctorate in Pharmacy and advises Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on energy, offers an analogy that I have adapted below.
Let us assume that Pakistan generates 100 units of electricity. The system loses 22 units to theft. Thus, only 78 units reach consumers. We further assume that the distribution companies collect approximately 85 per cent of the amounts billed to consumers. The system, therefore, recovers revenue for only 66 units of the 100 generated.
Subsidy:
Now comes the subsidy. Since it costs 14 cents to generate a unit of electricity, and the average tariff charged is 11.5 cents, the system recovers revenue at full cost for a mere 54 units.
Effectively, the total loss from transmission losses, theft, recovery, and subsidies is 46 per cent. This leads us to the other self-inflicted financial wound, i.e., the circular debt.
Circular debt:
Each year, it adds up to billions of dollars. Why, you may ask. According to the CIA World Fact Book, Pakistan generated 94.65 billion kWh in 2011. Since it costs the system 14 cents to generate a kWh of electricity and the real recovery rate is merely 54 per cent, the total annual circular debt is estimated at US$6 billion.
Incompetence:
The IPP's at current are responsible to provide electricity to half of our country. As the Govt. did not pay their debt so now they are charging or demanding higher per unit prices from the consumers. This hike in electricity prices is affecting not only our local industries and homes but is also affecting our exports of manufacturing goods. The govt. must intervene and pay out the circular debt. Or provide subsidy on electricity.
Distribution:
most electricity transmission lines here in Pakistan are incapable of transmitting electric voltages of more than two phases. This makes them in-compatible to carry higher voltages, so even if we produce 3 phase electricity, it would be of no use in this case. We need to upgrade our transmission lines.
we lack high quality lower end grids that are used to carry electricity from power houses to the ultimate consumers via grid stations. The infrastructure is old and deteriorated. The system is unable to sustain extreme weather conditions hence most of the grids shut down at extreme temperature or either completely stops working.
Transmission Losses:
I identified that WAPDA is facing huge line losses due to electricity theft or illegal usage of electricity. The burden is beard by the Government so in order to cover up such losses and to ensure adequate and clean facility of electricity; we must ensure that no body breaks into the transmission system.
Lack of new Projects:
Dams
In case of Dams the water flow is restricted by the making a huge storage device and the head of water is increased, the water then is allows to flow by means of gates and pass through the turbine, the head of reservoir level is maintained to provide uniform power and the water stored in the season additionally is used for irrigation purpose in the dry season. no new dams are being constructed even the announced projects are far behind completion date:
Run of the river projects
In the run of river project the water is diverted through the tunnel and once it gain the head allowed to fall and pass through the turbine and back too river. The water in these projects is continuously flowing and not being stored.
Geographical situation is paramount importance in choosing the suitable site for the hydel project and it evolves a very serious time and money consuming study.
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