Possible Russian S-400 sale to India and Pakistan's Response.

[Path-Finder]

I am a novice like anything in this field. During Russian plane downing crisis, Turkish folks were saying that KORAL EW systems deployment had nullified the threats from S400 in Syria. KORAL has the capability not only to jam but also to deceive the enemy by generating phantom images. Pak folks might be interested for it goes petfectly well with their propensity to come up with "out of the box" indegenous solutions (read 1st virus)....

unless i am wrong but wasn't S400 deployed after the downing of the mig? the event happened almost a year ago now. time has flown past.

 

[GumNaam]

Again assumptions. Flawed ones. Any source of cost of Reaper ? And any source of definite cost of Harpy ?

When you find that out, try to find out if your MIC can produce 1000 Harpys ? Also how much time will take to produce 1000 Harpys ?

Honestly dude, GOOGLE IT! Now, if you think that we are neither capable of manufacturing such a drone is large numbers then good. That's exactly what we would want you to think. After all, your over confidence is our secret weapon.

 

[jha]

Honestly dude, GOOGLE IT! Now, if you think that we are neither capable of manufacturing such a drone is large numbers then good. That's exactly what we would want you to think. After all, your over confidence is our secret weapon.

So,you could not find the real cost of such Drones. Good.

And yes. Your MIC is not capable of producing 1000s of Harpys.

 

[raj76]

So,you could not find the real cost of such Drones. Good.

And yes. Your MIC is not capable of producing 1000s of Harpys.

i wanted to reply him when he 1st posted then i saw 2nd post and there onn, realized he is just pacifying himself he can satisfy himself with laughable assumptions, u cant argue with a person like that rest u r case

 

[GumNaam]

So,you could not find the real cost of such Drones. Good.

And yes. Your MIC is not capable of producing 1000s of Harpys.

So I concede that I was wrong. The price isn't $ 6 million, IT'S ACTUALLY CHEAPER (read it and weep since you obviously can't google anything on your own)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Atomics_MQ-1_Predator

Now the cost of the burraq drone is not known but needless to say, it is far cheaper that $4 million a pence. So once again, I pose your own question you you. Hope hard do you think it would be for us to mass produce a harpy type drone that is very simplistic and plain compared to the burraq?

i wanted to reply him when he 1st posted then i saw 2nd post and there onn, realized he is just pacifying himself he can satisfy himself with laughable assumptions, u cant argue with a person like that rest u r case

Congrats, that's a very innovative attempt at hiding your butthurt. Didn't work though, try harder.

 

[jha]

So I concede that I was wrong. The price isn't $ 6 million, IT'S ACTUALLY CHEAPER (read it and weep since you obviously can't google anything on your own)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Atomics_MQ-1_Predator

Now the cost of the burraq drone is not known but needless to say, it is far cheaper that $4 million a pence. So once again, I pose your own question you you. Hope hard do you think it would be for us to mass produce a harpy type drone that is very simplistic and plain compared to the burraq?



Congrats, that's a very innovative attempt at hiding your butthurt. Didn't work though, try harder.

So you started with Reaper and provided a wiki link for Predator . Also, you assumed flyaway cost of a single Predator from 2010( assuming it to be true) as cost of acquisition in 2016. Cant say Was bot expecting such flawed assumptions and falsehoods from you.

And yes. It will be very very difficult for you to produce 1000s of drones. Considering US has been able to produce only 360 of Predators in 20 years. Unless ofcourse you rate your MIC to be much more advanced than US's. Going by your posts, there is serious chance of that happening.

 

[CriticalThought]

@GumNaam has a valid point. Google 'Drone Swarm' you'll see. These are tiny drones and can be used to saturate the first layer very easily. They don't even have to strike the RADAR itself. Just need to explode EM bombs close by in large numbers.

Now consider larger drones that carry their own drone swarms with them and can detect a radar lock. As soon as that happens, they simply need to release their drone swarms. There might be holes in the idea, but it is a reasonable basis on which you can build something sophisticated.

But we need to look at this in a larger perspective. Pakistan's response to Cold Start was Nasr. Unfortunately, as soon as you use Nasr, India get's the right of second strike. And here is where things get complicated. The S-400 hampers Pakistan's ability to quickly attack Indian targets in a nuclear exchange. India effectively gains first strike by sacrificing their 'cold start' batallions. That's because the whole 'drone swarm' will take time to penetrate the defences. What we need is a method to take out the SAM sites very quickly, or something that sneaks past them, or something so fast that it is immune to them.

There are other options as well. If Pakistan is cornered like this, it can be forced to cause a mass electromagnetic attack using a large nuke. Google for 'High-altitude nuclear explosion'. And that is the problem of these advanced systems. Russia has done a disservice to the entire world, because it has just raised the stakes in a battle amongst nuclear states where one is beaten into a corner and will be willing to use anything and everything available. Think about the consequences of such an action. The EM fallout will NOT be limited to India only. A large enough explosion will affect Pakistan, India, Iran, Afghanistan, and most importantly China. If China finds this impedes it significantly, it can announce that any Cold Start by India will lead to simultaneous space explosions by China and Pakistan which ensure that both America and India get affected. The situation can get totally out of hand.

The S-400 is one toy which was not meant for children 5 years and younger (read Hindu isolationist extremists).

 

[GumNaam]

So you started with Reaper and provided a wiki link for Predator . Also, you assumed flyaway cost of a single Predator from 2010( assuming it to be true) as cost of acquisition in 2016. Cant say Was bot expecting such flawed assumptions and falsehoods from you.

And yes. It will be very very difficult for you to produce 1000s of drones. Considering US has been able to produce only 360 of Predators in 20 years. Unless ofcourse you rate your MIC to be much more advanced than US's. Going by your posts, there is serious chance of that happening.

The reaper is an advanced version of the predator. Regardless, my point remains completely valid that even the Burraq is one 1/5 th the cost of the predator, it would be very easy for us to mass produce a drone that's even cheaper and less advanced than the burraq. THAT'S THE POINT YOU CONVENIENTLY KEEP FORGETTING, PERHAPS ON PURPOSE. Now if the u.s. fox not produce the predator in the thousands, what on earth gave you the idea that they are incapable of doing so? That's a very simplistic way of thinking. The reality is that they just far more advanced ways of defeating ad systems like the S400. Now, did I ever claim that what I proposed is the most advanced? No I did not. Quite the contrary, I made sure to state that there are more advanced ways of neutralizing the s400s. I said that what I proposed is just one way of defeating it. Now as for you thinking that we cannot mass produce such drones in the thousands then that's a personal problem that you alone have to deal with. As for as I am concerned, you can keep thinking that all you want.

@GumNaam has a valid point. Google 'Drone Swarm' you'll see. These are tiny drones and can be used to saturate the first layer very easily. They don't even have to strike the RADAR itself. Just need to explode EM bombs close by in large numbers.

Now consider larger drones that carry their own drone swarms with them and can detect a radar lock. As soon as that happens, they simply need to release their drone swarms. There might be holes in the idea, but it is a reasonable basis on which you can build something sophisticated.

But we need to look at this in a larger perspective. Pakistan's response to Cold Start was Nasr. Unfortunately, as soon as you use Nasr, India get's the right of second strike. And here is where things get complicated. The S-400 hampers Pakistan's ability to quickly attack Indian targets in a nuclear exchange. India effectively gains first strike by sacrificing their 'cold start' batallions. That's because the whole 'drone swarm' will take time to penetrate the defences. What we need is a method to take out the SAM sites very quickly, or something that sneaks past them, or something so fast that it is immune to them.

There are other options as well. If Pakistan is cornered like this, it can be forced to cause a mass electromagnetic attack using a large nuke. Google for 'High-altitude nuclear explosion'. And that is the problem of these advanced systems. Russia has done a disservice to the entire world, because it has just raised the stakes in a battle amongst nuclear states where one is beaten into a corner and will be willing to use anything and everything available. Think about the consequences of such an action. The EM fallout will NOT be limited to India only. A large enough explosion will affect Pakistan, India, Iran, Afghanistan, and most importantly China. If China finds this impedes it significantly, it can announce that any Cold Start by India will lead to simultaneous space explosions by China and Pakistan which ensure that both America and India get affected. The situation can get totally out of hand.

The S-400 is one toy which was not meant for children 5 years and younger (read Hindu isolationist extremists).

india does NOT get the 2nd strike right if we use the nasr within our own borders on the no man's land on an invading army. And these are neutron warheads so little to no radiation, just a whole lotta dead indians.

 

[jha]

The reaper is an advanced version of the predator. Regardless, my point remains completely valid that even the Burraq is one 1/5 th the cost of the predator, it would be very easy for us to mass produce a drone that's even cheaper and less advanced than the burraq. THAT'S THE POINT YOU CONVENIENTLY KEEP FORGETTING, PERHAPS ON PURPOSE. Now if the u.s. fox not produce the predator in the thousands, what on earth gave you the idea that they are incapable of doing so? That's a very simplistic way of thinking. The reality is that they just far more advanced ways of defeating ad systems like the S400. Now, did I ever claim that what I proposed is the most advanced? No I did not. Quite the contrary, I made sure to state that there are more advanced ways of neutralizing the s400s. I said that what I proposed is just one way of defeating it. Now as for you thinking that we cannot mass produce such drones in the thousands then that's a personal problem that you alone have to deal with. As for as I am concerned, you can keep thinking that all you want.

How much does Burraq actually cost ? 1/5th of Predator or, 1/5thof Reaper ?

And how much does a Reaper cost ?

 

[GumNaam]

How much does Burraq actually cost ? 1/5th of Predator or, 1/5thof Reaper ?

Predator. I say predator because it was the predator that crashed in Pakistan which the u.s. wanted back which we did...after a very long time. But also mind you, that is just the Burraq drone that was publically tested and announced. As I said before, my internal family sources in the military establishment have told me that the Burraq is nothing compared to other armed drones they are making. But I have no authoritative source to prove that so you can feel free to take it with a grain of salt.

 

[jha]

Predator. I say predator because it was the predator that crashed in Pakistan which the u.s. wanted back which we did...after a very long time.

Are you sure its not Reaper ? In last pages, you had claimed Burraq costs 1/6th of Reaper. A Reaper (in your words advanced Predator) costs 4-5 times of a Predator.

Anyway the question is, how much will a Predator cost in 2020. If in 2010, flyaway cost is $4mill, so acquisition cost of one system should be ~7-10 Mill. The figure should go to ~10-12 million in 2020 due to inflation. Your Burraq would cost $2-3 million. A supposedly cheaper Harpy will cost $1-2 million. 1000 of them will cost $1-2 billion. Take inflation into account and the figure goes to $2-3 billion. Add to this cost of training manpower and associated infrastructure. 1000s of such Harpys will bankrupt your country.

 

[GumNaam]

Are you sure its not Reaper ? In last pages, you had claimed Burraq costs 1/6th of Reaper. A Reaper (in your words advanced Predator) costs 4-5 times of a Predator.

Anyway the question is, how much will a Predator cost in 2020. If in 2010, flyaway cost is $4mill, so acquisition cost of one system should be ~7-10 Mill. The figure should go to ~10-12 million in 2020 due to inflation. Your Burraq would cost $2-3 million. A supposedly cheaper Harpy will cost $1-2 million. 1000 of them will cost $1-2 billion. Take inflation into account and the figure goes to $2-3 billion. Add to this cost of training manpower and associated infrastructure. 1000s of such Harpys will bankrupt your country.

he thinks we can't handle the $2-3 billion cost.

be it reaper or predator is irrelevant. So I thought it was the reaper that crashed in our borders but turned out to be the predator. That really doesn't change anything; in fact it further strengthens my point of view.
If you think that $2-3 billion will bankrupt Pakistan given that we've successfully managed projects that are far more expensive including the nuclear weapons program, then I'm afraid you've ruined whatever little credibility you had left. But then again, like I said, your over confidence is our secret weapon.

 

[jha]

he thinks we can't handle the $2-3 billion cost.

be it reaper or predator is irrelevant. So I thought it was the reaper that crashed in our borders but turned out to be the predator. That really doesn't change anything; in fact it further strengthens my point of view.
If you think that $2-3 billion will bankrupt Pakistan given that we've managed projects that are far more expensive including the nuclear weapons program, then I'm afraid you've ruined whatever little credibility you had left. But then again, like I said, your over confidence is our secret weapon.

Hehehe.. Did you add manpower training and associated infra cost to that 2-3 billion ? Thats for 1000. Multiply that by number of thousands you want. FYI 5 battallions of S-400 are costing us $5-billion. If your country is ready to spend so much money, for our $5 billion, I dont think we will have much problem. After all India is 8 times economically bigger and growing at 8%.

BTW I had no intention of building my credibility for you. Was indulging you to see how many twists and turns you take. Must say, you have not disappointed.

 

[GumNaam]

in case you don't know, we already have a large infrastructure and well trained technical manpower that is building drones right now as we speak. Building small drones in large numbers is REALLY not a major challenge to us by any means. I appreciate your lactation out of economic concern for us but don't worry about us, we're not the ones to take 30 plus years only produce an utter joke.

 

[jha]

in case you don't know, we already have a large infrastructure and well trained technical manpower that is building drones right now as we speak. Building small drones in large numbers is REALLY not a major challenge to us by any means. I appreciate your lactation out of economic concern for us but don't worry about us, we're not the ones to take 30 plus years only produce an utter joke.

Holy ##it... There is Difference between country's infrastructure and associated infrastructure of a particular weapon system. I really was talking with a teenage keyboard warrior. What a waste of time.