Possible Russian S-400 sale to India and Pakistan's Response.

[GumNaam]

There is a concept called " Layered Air defense". Look it up.

Also, strategic SAM systems usually have their own Air defenses. Our S-300 batteries are accompanied with Pantsyrs imo. S-400 system inevitably would have their own Pantsyrs.

Launching 151 cheap drone to take out a billion dollar SAM system, was a good one though. Still laughing.

You've failed to prove how the layered air defence and S400s with their own air defence help when it comes to not getting overwhelmed. The example I presented included both layered air defence and its own air defence. The example included have a battery of short range SAMs and AA guns which are always a part of an air defence system that are surrounding a strategic air defence system.

But okay, feel free to laugh all you want. Doesn't change the fact that you'll have no choice but to waste multi million dollar sams on armed drones all in a matter of minutes until your batteries are either out of missiles or are destroyed. That's when the real onslaught follows.

 

[Daghalodi]

Congrats to India for sealing the deal of s400 for 5billion dollars for 5 s400 battries

 

[jha]

You've failed to prove how the layered air defence and S400s with their own air defence help when it comes to not getting overwhelmed. The example I presented included both layered air defence and its own air defence. The example included have a battery of short range SAMs and AA guns which are always a part of an air defence system that are surrounding a strategic air defence system.

But okay, feel free to laugh all you want. Doesn't change the fact that you'll have no choice but to waste multi million dollar sams on armed drones.

Your whole analysis is based on your own flawed assumptions. Try to learn more about Layered Air defense. Glancing over a wiki page wont suffice.

Many more drones will be needed to dent a strategic SAM like S-400 ( which itself is a mobile system). 150 is too less a number.

Going by your own analysis...Do you think, IAF will sit idle when PAF launches 151 drones ? Will IAF allow so many drones to take off ? What are our MKIs/Mig 29s/Mirages going to do ? Sit idle ?

Issue with keyboard warriors is that they like to plan for their own best case scenario. Any future war is going to be hybrid in nature. This is also something, you should try to learn about.

 

[Basel]

You are gonna take out S-400 with drones m.m then US should adopt your strategy not Pakistan.

View attachment 343811 View attachment 343811

You forgot that even India bought suicide drones Harpy from Israel for SEAD mission so it's quite possible to develop similar or better capabilities against advance air defences, Turkey also operates Harpy and Pakistan is closely working in defense field with Turkey which includes UAVs too.

http://www.israeli-weapons.com/weapons/aircraft/uav/harpy/HARPY.html

 

[GumNaam]

Your whole analysis is based on your own flawed assumptions. Try to learn more about Layered Air defense. Glancing over a wiki page wont suffice.

Many more drones will be needed to dent a strategic SAM like S-400 ( which itself is a mobile system). 150 is too less a number.

Going by your own analysis...Do you think, IAF will sit idle when PAF launches 151 drones ? Will IAF allow so many drones to take off ? What are our MKIs/Mig 29s/Mirages going to do ? Sit idle ?

Issue with keyboard warriors is that they like to plan for their own best case scenario. Any future war is going to be hybrid in nature. This is also something, you should try to learn about.

read what Basel just posted. What I am suggesting is not a new concept. The best case scenario that you can hope for is that both sides use the same tactic on each other and both end up with zero ground to air defences.

again, the entire purpose of these cannon fodder drones IS to absorb all of your fire power, be it from surface to air OR air to air.

Okay, I'm gonna put you on the spot now. Show me my flawed assumptions. I'd like to know. Because everything boils down to having cheap, armed and deep penetrating aircraft, be they drones or cruise missiles or other SSMs. And if Pakistan can make them in mass numbers due to being very cheap to make, where on earth is there a "flawed assumption" that no matter what you have, you will have NO option BUT expend your fire power on these drones. The only thing that you can do at that point in time is attempt a preemtive air raid to stop these drones form taking off but that is something that we have long been prepared for and that is where our own preemptive strikes can kick in. Different discussion on a different strategy altogether. So again, list our my flawed assumptions.

 

[jha]

again, the entire purpose of these cannon fodder drones IS to absorb all of your fire power, be it from surface to air OR air to air.

Okay, I'm gonna put you on the spot now. Show me my flawed assumptions. I'd like to know. Because everything boils down to having cheap, armed and deep penetrating aircraft, be they drones or cruise missiles or other SSMs. And if Pakistan can make them in mass numbers due to being very cheap to make, where on earth is there a "flawed assumption" that no matter what you have, you will have NO option BUT expend your fire power on these drones. The only thing that you can do at that point in time is attempt a preemtive air raid to stop these drones form taking off but that is something that we have long been prepared for and that is where our own preemptive strikes can kick in. Different discussion on a different strategy altogether. So again, list our my flawed assumptions.

You are talking about consuming all of the Firepower of an airforce with 270 MKIs, ~100 Mig-29s, 120 Jaguars, (at least) 36 Rafales and ~100LCAs. I have not even listed SAMs. Do I need to point out the flaws ?

 

[Basel]

Against Indian air defences addition of following ARM (with 500kg war head and 400km range) customized as per Pakistan's requirement will be good.

http://www.deagel.com/Anti-Radiation-Missiles/YJ-12-ARM_a003099003.aspx

 

[GumNaam]

You are talking about consuming all of the Firepower of an airforce with 270 MKIs, ~100 Mig-29s, 120 Jaguars, (at least) 36 Rafales and ~100LCAs. I have not even listed SAMs. Do I need to point out the flaws ?

and how hard do you think it would be for Pakistan to mass produce thousands of drones (like the harpy for example). You'd need 2700 MKIs just to save yourself from getting overwhelmed. These harpy like drones are very cheap to make. Probably cheaper that a single aam missile on any one of your aircrafts.

Do the math!

 

[jha]

and how hard do you think it would be for Pakistan to mass produce thousands of drones (like the harpy for example). You'd need 2700 MKIs just to save yourself from getting overwhelmed. These harpy like drones are very cheap to make. Probably cheaper that a single aam missile on any one of your aircrafts.

Do the math!

Thousands of Harpys ? Tell me the cost please. How much will it cost your AF to produce 1000 Harpy ?

 

[GumNaam]

Thousands of Harpys ? Tell me the cost please. How much will it cost your AF to produce 1000 Harpy ?

I said LIKE the harpy. The cost of reaper done is $6 million. The armed drones we currently make right now, the Burraq are 1/5th the cost of the reaper. The harpy like drones that I am talking about will NOT be as advanced as the Burraqs that we currently make and at most would needs a range of 1000km. Therfore it would be far cheaper than the Burraq. So now, given that the Burraq costs is roughly $1 million a piece and that our harpy like drone will be far cheaper, I now pose your own question to you. How much do you think it would cost our AF to make these drones? Not very much. Do the math!

 

[mikkix]

its a serious threat, now what is in our artillery?

 

[jha]

I said LIKE the harpy. The cost of reaper done is $6 million. The armed drones we currently make right now, the Burraq are 1/5th the cost of the reaper. The harpy like drones that I am talking about will NOT be as advanced as the Burraqs that we currently make and at most would needs a range of 1000km. Therfore it would be far cheaper than the Burraq. So now, given that the Burraq costs is roughly $1 million a piece and that our harpy like drone will be far cheaper, I now pose your own question to you. How much do you think it would cost our AF to make these drones? Not very much. Do the math!

Again assumptions. Flawed ones. Any source of cost of Reaper ? And any source of definite cost of Harpy ?

When you find that out, try to find out if your MIC can produce 1000 Harpys ? Also how much time will take to produce 1000 Harpys ?

 

[DavidSling]

Terra radar system is a beast in every aspect, if India will get this will it'll boost it's capabilities dramaticly

 

[jha]

Terra radar system is a beast in every aspect, if India will get this will it'll boost it's capabilities dramaticly

10 UHF Radar systems are to be procured for IAF. This system should be the front runner. Unless Raytheon springs up a surprise.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

well some video game strategies are based on real world examples But joking aside, this is actually NOT based on some video game strategy or some movie. It actually has been used in WWII. The entire concept is based on Russia's world war 2 strategy against the germans when they got bogged down during the harsh Russian winter really. Even though they were bogged down, they were still well armed but just not going anywhere due to winter. What the Russians did was flood the german lines with soviet conscripts as cannon fodders to absorb the nazi german fire. Yes it was a turkey shoot for the germans with dead soviet conscript bodies every where but in a matter of hours, what the germans thought was their victory soon turned into their defeat when they realized that they were now either low on ammo or completely out with soviet armor headed their way on the horizon followed by the true soviet army. Now, having said that, just replace the well dug in german soldiers with indian air defences. replace the soviet conscripted cannon fodders with armed drones, replace hours with minutes and replace the soviet armor with SSMs and PAF. Get the picture?

Now I know there can be other more effective solutions. All that I am saying that this overhelming strategy too is an effective solution. It's a solution that Pakistan can deploy like NOW! Until a more advanced solution is in place, this can effectively send shivers up the indian spines (as you can tell from dangar007's reaction).


ratheon has already developed a similar but more advanced strategy where they use air launched drones to have the S400s start tracking them The drones are armed forcing the radards to track them. When they start tracking the drones then they launch anti-radiation missiles against the source of the radiation, i.e. S400. So yeah, they've already implemented a more advanced version of the solution that I am proposing.


fyi, your own picture answered your question. Here's the break down: So each system supports up to 12 launchers with 4 missiles each, right? So that's 4 x 12 = 48 SAM missiles. Correct? Let's make it more interesting. Suppose this entire S400 battery is 200 KM away from the border. On top of that, in between the border and the S400 battery, suppose that there are 2 AA gun regiments and 2 short range SAM regiments with 50 SAM missiles each. That is 100 short range SAMs with 48 S400 missiles and any number of AA gun rounds. Given the ineffective performance of AA guns during the iraq war by the iraqi military, I won't bother to take them into account (let's face it, they are a last ditch effort when all else has failed). So effectively, you have a defence of 150 SAM missiles which include 100 short range SAMs and 48 S400 missiles. Pakistan just has to launch 151 armed drones. THAT'S IT! In that case, WORST CASE scenario is that 1 armed drone is BOUND to make it to the S400 launch site and destroy it. It literally has to just take our the radar sites which will render the entire S400 battery useless. And as I said, that is the WORST case scenario. Practically, a far more than 1 would make it through the indian defences, that is guaranteed.

Is this an expense solution? YES. Can there be better solutions. OF COURSE. But it will make indian loses of the S400 far more expensive. The loss of our drones may run into millions of dollars but the loss of S400 batteries will run into billions of dollars for the indians. So all that I am saying is that this IS a solution that can be deployed until a better and more cost effective one is developed. Not rocket science people!

I am a novice like anything in this field. During Russian plane downing crisis, Turkish folks were saying that KORAL EW systems deployment had nullified the threats from S400 in Syria. KORAL has the capability not only to jam but also to deceive the enemy by generating phantom images. Pak folks might be interested for it goes petfectly well with their propensity to come up with "out of the box" indegenous solutions (read 1st virus)....