Possibility of return of Taliban in Kabul

[Yaduveer]

Guys , lets have the objective analysis of possibility of Taliban to return to power in Kabul.(No wishes but only ground reality)

My take,

USA is negotiating with Taliban so this is ample proof that Taliban is going to get some power share with Afghan government. but what will be type of power share , be Taliban form part of central government or get control of some regions or get hizbollah model of Lebanon in which armed party co-exist with civilian parties ?

Advantage of ANA:

1. One thing is clear 2014 is not 1996.This time,Afghanistan has a better trained and better equipped Army i.e. ANA. Currently ANA has over 2 Lakh soldiers and most of them trained by NATO forces.

2. Most of Great and regional powers like USA,Russia,Iran and India wholeheartedly supports ANA.

3. China,India have won mining contracts in Afghanistan and last thing they want a civil war sort of thing in Afghanistan.

4. USA will have some bases left in Afghanistan to further train ANA and the bases would act as moral boost for ANA.

5.TTP, that is the new thing phenomenon in 2014 which was absent in 1990s.After USA withdrawal,TTP can setup it's bases in afghan side of Afghan-Pak border and let all hell loose in the Pakistan. ANA co-operation would be vital to keep check over TTP.

Advantage for the Talibans:

1. On the other hand , Taliban are formless and shapeless decentralized fighting force with high morale due to extreme religiosity.This form is very suitable for guerrilla fight and type of mountainous terrain in Afghan-Pak border would support such guerrilla war.

2. Pakistan do not even an independent Afghanistan leave aside any anti-Pak Afghans. Why? an independent Afghanistan do not recognize Durand line as international border.Even before 90s,Afghan ministers usually came FATA area and declare it as a part of Afghanistan.

3. Due to ideological match and geopolitical reasons, I think Saudi would favour Taliban which will act as check for Iranian influence in Afghanistan.

4. Currently,Border trade with Pakistan is vital for Afghan economy.

Conclusions:

1. Looking at examples of Libya and Syria,It is very very difficult to defeat a trained and disciplined army by guerrilla forces even with covert support with developed world.Until and unless support is active involvement (No fly zones) of foreign powers, Trained forces can not be defeated easily.

2. One may question the extent of discipline and morale in ANA,this has some valid points.But one may be look at other points , Pakistan can not provide active and open support to Talibans and powerful countries(USA and Russia) are backing ANA which is a rarity in modern world. So If ANA is no demon then it is no Lemon too!

3. Now there can two possibilities of violence in 2014 -one,this is more probable, some warlords of Taliban angry/unsatisfied with power share wage a war against ANA ,however this can be tackled with carrot and stick policy by ANA.

4. Second possibility,less probable in my eyes,Taliban wholeheartedly wage a total war against ANA. Now this will be serious concern for everyone.This war will go on atleast a Decade.In that decade,terrorist explosions will be in heard in Central asia,India or even Iran too.Terrorist activity would be much much severe in Pakistan (Remember TTP).Perhaps the biggest victim would be Afghan people.


Suggestions:
Afghan has a very rich and proud history in whole of South Asian region.They need to look at their past to realize who they were. In essence , Afghanistan needs nationalism which will be a boost the morale of ANA and it's people and get a worthy cause to fight the dreaded Talibans.


P.S. Please refrain from one liner reply,thank you

 

[Yaduveer]

@Oscar @WebMaster @KRAIT @Imran Khan, @abindonboy @Rajaraja Chola @LoveIcon @fatman17 @arp2041.. your views ..

 

[Imran Khan]

yes may be they come back but at that day kabul will be empty and rivers of blood flow in AFG damn when they stop fighting .its been 50 years now .

 

[fatman17]

1. Looking at examples of Libya and Syria,It is very very difficult to defeat a trained and disciplined army by guerrilla forces

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/centra...ility-return-taliban-kabul.html#ixzz2SWKKYu2p

i dont agree with your assertion that the ANA is a well trained army of ~300,000. if you read what the US/NATO is going to say about their capabilities, then you will get the 'all is well' story-line. the factual position is quite different. the ANA is

1. ill-trained and drug addicts.
2. fraught with desertions
3. corruption is rampant - selling off their weapons, ammo, uniforms to the 'guess who'?
4. the only well trained ANA loiters around Kabul, defending the corrupt tinpot Karzai.

there are many op-eds in this forum highlighting the in-effectiveness of this force.

 

[Sugarcane]

You forgot the money bags CIA is giving and US aid which is being given to warlords (other than afghan talibans) and TTP to keep them on Karzai's side - For how long American public will let their bucks drained?

China surely will not want civil war because of her economic interests but will she & Russia be happy with US military basis for longer period?

 

[fatman17]

the taliban of ca. 1996 cannot take over but the inclusion of the taliban in a new govt. set-up cannot be denied.

 

[ExtraOdinary]

Few days back an Afghan soldier died in border clash. Common Afghans from all walks of life joined his funeral. The strength of ANA lies in the patriotism of the common Afghan civilian, it is their support which matters most.

 

[A.Rafay]

There is 60% chance that taliban may return back strong after the NATO withdrawal.

 

[SmashZ]

There is 60% chance that taliban may return back strong after the NATO withdrawal.

majority American , NATO army has been removed , do you think Small amount of NATO troops are stopping taliban ? , Taliban is concentrating on Pakistan which is better and safe place for them .

 

[Yaduveer]

1. Looking at examples of Libya and Syria,It is very very difficult to defeat a trained and disciplined army by guerrilla forces

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/centra...ility-return-taliban-kabul.html#ixzz2SWKKYu2p

i dont agree with your assertion that the ANA is a well trained army of ~300,000. if you read what the US/NATO is going to say about their capabilities, then you will get the 'all is well' story-line. the factual position is quite different. the ANA is

1. ill-trained and drug addicts.
2. fraught with desertions
3. corruption is rampant - selling off their weapons, ammo, uniforms to the 'guess who'?
4. the only well trained ANA loiters around Kabul, defending the corrupt tinpot Karzai.

there are many op-eds in this forum highlighting the in-effectiveness of this force.

You have probably did not read second point..

2. One may question the extent of discipline and morale in ANA,this has some valid points.But one may be look at other points , Pakistan can not provide active and open support to Talibans and powerful countries(USA and Russia) are backing ANA which is a rarity in modern world. So If ANA is no demon then it is no Lemon too!

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/centra...ility-return-taliban-kabul.html#ixzz2SWP64Yng

 

[fatman17]

here is a piece of 'tid-bit';


The clearest failure of the American state-building operation has been its inability to construct reliable Afghan National Security Forces. The U.S. has already spent $50 billion to set them up and pays between $10 and $12 billion annually to maintain them. These sums are enormous in a country whose annual gross domestic product is only $20 billion.

The Afghan National Security Forces cannot stand on their own–they are utterly dependent for their existence on the U.S.

They are also completely ineffective. As TomDispatch associate editor Nick Turse writes, “Today, the Afghan National Security Forces officially number more than 343,000, but only 7 percent of its army units and 9 percent of its police units are rated at the highest level of effectiveness.” As Dorronsoro writes, “The Afghan National Army hardly ever leaves its barracks because of the prevalence of improvised explosives devices and limited air support, which will be even more limited in the future.”

The soldiers and police have no political commitment to serving the regime, save making money for themselves and enforcing the rule of the local warlords. According to Cortwright and Wall, “Police abuses include not only taking bribes, but also extrajudicial executions, torture and the arbitrary arrest of unarmed civilians in village where the presence of Taliban fighters is suspected.”

Even though they are completely dependent on the U.S., members of the Afghan National Security Forces resent the U.S. occupation. This sentiment underlies the wave of so-called “green-on-blue attacks” against U.S. soldiers. The U.S. admits that the Taliban was responsible for only 25 percent of attacks on U.S. forces–unaffiliated Afghan soldiers and police staged the majority of them.

In fact, the U.S. has grown so wary of the Afghan National Security Forces that it suspended training of local police, restricted joint patrols of between and U.S. forces to the battalion level, and assigned armed American soldiers–so-called Guardian Angels–with shoot-to-kill authorization to police any and all interaction between American and Afghan forces.

Finally, the Taliban has been able to infiltrate a significant portion of the forces to stage attacks, gather intelligence and prepare for their own coming surge. In a sign of their growing power, the Taliban staged what U.S. officials called “the single most destructive strike on Western materiel in the 11-year war” when a team of fighters broke into a U.S. camp, killed 2 Marines and destroyed eight Harrier jets worth over $200 million.

***

there go India's and China's plans of grandeur.....!

 

[Yaduveer]

You forgot the money bags CIA is giving and US aid which is being given to warlords (other than afghan talibans) and TTP to keep them on Karzai's side - For how long American public will let their bucks drained?

China surely will not want civil war because of her economic interests but will she & Russia be happy with US military basis for longer period?

1.You also forgot that if CIA is supplying moneybags to Karzai or even TTP (which you claim by little bit of Zaid Hamidism), Then same American government also supplying more moneybags to Pakistan Army too.

2.Question is not who is supplying what to whom because if you think supply of CIA moneybags would stop after 2014 then it might be stopped for Pak Army a day earlier than TTP.

3. China do not have problem with US bases in Afghan but Russia has. Why ? Iran. So Russia is willing to allow US bases in Afghan through UN resolution.

 

[Sugarcane]

1.You also forgot that if CIA is supplying moneybags to Karzai or even TTP (which you claim by little bit of Zaid Hamidism), Then same American government also supplying more moneybags to Pakistan Army too.

2.Question is not who is supplying what to whom because if you think supply of CIA moneybags would stop after 2014 then it might be stopped for Pak Army a day earlier than TTP.

3. China do not have problem with US bases in Afghan but Russia has. Why ? Iran. So Russia is willing to allow US bases in Afghan through UN resolution.

At-least do some research on topic before acting like specialist. Even on PDF you will find the threads Karzai admitting CIA giving moneybags, and warlord asking for more money from Karzai for his private army. Leave aside Pakistan, You even don't know the dynamics of Afghanistan for you Kabul is all Afghanistan.

 

[Yaduveer]

There is 60% chance that taliban may return back strong after the NATO withdrawal.

Statements without being supported by logic,data,fact or even example has no meaning.

What will be the nature of return of Taliban ? will it be same as 90s or have some changes? these are points worth of discussion

At-least do some research on topic before acting like specialist. Even on PDF you will find the threads Karzai admitting CIA giving moneybags, and warlord asking for more money from Karzai for his private army. Leave aside Pakistan, You even don't know the dynamics of Afghanistan for you Kabul is all Afghanistan.

Ohh please I did not deny that CIA is not giving money to Karzai, Did I ? even Karzai accepted that a small amount of money being received.

I raise doubts over your claims of CIA supplying money to TTP and even if that is accepted than it would be fraction of money what Pakistan Army receives as military aid.

 

[Sugarcane]

Ohh please I did not deny that CIA is not giving money to Karzai, Did I ? even Karzai accepted that a small amount of money being received.

I raise doubts over your claims of CIA supplying money to TTP and even if that is accepted than it would be fraction of money what Pakistan Army receives as military aid.

Again Ignorance - do little research first.