So by your analysis can we confirm that North Korean nukes were not Pakistani? I agree they were not.
Most likely not, the designs being proliferated by Pakistan on black market were old Chinese designs.
Now when it comes to north Korea where is USA collecting the DATA from? Right across the border in south Korea and Japan and Taiwan from where they measure seismic activity to estimate the yield, Am I correct? Yes I am.
Where as in Pakistani case where is USA collecting the DATA? USA was not in Afghanistan with meters in 1998 because it was Taliban country then. Am I correct? Yes I am. USA cannot collect DATA from any Place in Iran so only Place USA can be is Rajasthan India and Distance of Chaghi Balochistan is too great for them to collect any accurate data.
The US is number one in detecting nuclear tests and their correct yields. They have to be, especially when dealing with enforcing nuclear test treaties with USSR. You are pitching your scientists against theirs. My bet would be on American scientists. Tell me this,
is US is incorrect in measuring earthquake magnitude? Do you see people disputing American estimates of earthquake magnitude on new channels?
Secondly the test was conducted in Granite rock bed with "L" style drilling which releases least amount of seismic activity. So test is very difficult to even detect.
Yes, this is precisely why Americans are saying Pakistani weapons and even their test methods are faulty! If you are saying it's difficult to detect for Americans, than opposite is true as well, it's difficult to detect for Pakistan. "L" shaft is the worst way to detect yield and what's even worse is that the Pakistani scientists did multiple tests simultaneously, further diluting yield of each weapon, not a good idea! This is what I meant when I said 1998 tests were rushed, political, and useless. Pakistan should have tested again.
Now Back to the question of Bomb designs. Is Pakistan has its own design? or Is Pakistan using Chinese design?
Does it matter? Bomb designs are very simple the bigger problem is to have enough mass to make it critical. In HEU device you test low yield or high yield you just need to test because that will ensure that by increasing nuclear fuel you can achieve high yield. Now coming to India. India has till now only tested plutonium based devices and has never tested and HEU device so Indian nuke design yield will always remain low. Where as Pakistan has multiple type of devices from HEU to PU High to PU low to Low threshold tactical to Implosion fusion fission devices and that can be easily seen from Pakistani Missile designs. They are tailored in the fashion.
Pakistan has its own designs. Problem is not having nuclear weapons. Everyone knows Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Problem is that your theoretical yield is way off from actual yield. Weapon designs are tested against their theoretical yields. When the yield matches or is close, the military settles on that. weapon design is standardized and it is mass-produced. You cannot have an arsenal of nuclear weapons without having a standardized warhead which you know for certain works and delivers the expected yield with near 100% guarantee. The designs Pakistan tested did not give that certainty, neither did Indian weapons. Problem is that both countries involved in pointless chest-thumping went ahead and standardized their designs on weapons that did not meet expected yields.
Failure is normal, even North Korea and India failed to successfully detonate a true Hydrogen bomb which goes beyond 1 Megaton. Issue with Pakistan is that it needed to test again in 1998-2000 to validate and ensure with 100% certainty that weapons meet expected yields. It didn't do that, which is the crux of my argument, it needs to do it again. You are mistaking me for claiming that Pakistan doesn't have nuclear weapons. I'm simply saying it does, but they are not reliable. Western intelligence analysts agree with me on that.
What Pakistan tested in 1998 is a secret and will remain so all I can do is give you speculations. Where as India is desperate for a test to make sure it has a verified bomb which India dont has till to date.
for further reference I will advice you to read following data sites to enhance your knowledge anything out of public domain will not be available to you and only thing you can do it attend lectures from Atomic energy commisions retired peoples lectures to help your self. Thank regards.
https://www.atomicheritage.org/
https://www.armscontrol.org/
https://www.nti.org/
The more important thing is Pakistan uses Gas based centrifuges which is P1 and P2. Now no one can give this design to Pakistan as gas centrifuges are not used any where else and are very difficult to design. That is the most difficult part of the job after that give enough enriched material to a kid and he will make a bomb for you. Now do Americans, Chinese or Russians have a smaller bomb design than Pakistan? No they don't Pakistani nuke design is best in the world it has least volume to yield ration and that is what makes it more deadly and damaging. Considering Pakistan has Ababeel missile, Now according to arms treaty between USA and Russia you can load one missile with max 10 reentry devices but if you load Ababeel with Nasr war heads how many can you put in there with 5 kiloton yield? and if those reentry vehicles spread in a circular fashion and do multiple 100 meter altitude explosions you will get a nuclear cluster and just imagine the impact of such attack? it will leave nothing on ground and over a large area due the war head spread.
Hiroshima, one of the first nuclear weapons, had a yield bigger than Pakistani tests. You are taking small yields less than 8 kilotons and boasting about that. You are telling me that having multiple warheads with 5 Kt yield is better than having multiple warheads with 100 Kt yields. If you are saying 5 Kt is better than 100 Kt, then why were Pakistani scientists claiming that Pakistan's nuclear tests has yields of 30-40 Kt?
I don't see any point in arguing further on this issue. What I, along with other members, are advocating here is to
be like every other normal nuclear power - US, USSR, China, France, UK and even North Korea, India, Israel - and test larger yield warheads and ICBM delivery vehicles. Without these, you cannot be a full-fledged nuclear power. Why is it some members here are calling this "stupid"?
Are US, USSR, China, France, UK "stupid" for testing ICBM or thermonuclear weapons? Every other nuclear power is doing this or is at least trying. it's only Pakistan's establishment which is essentially sold out that is not testing it, in order to appease the west. I will say it again,
Pakistan's establishment is sold out. If OBL Raid did not open your eyes, nothing will.
