Pentagon backs proposal to give US fighter jets ‘Make in India’ tag

[Nilgiri]

@Nilgiri
This is your domain professional part. You think P&W will share engine tech not necessarily F135 but other engines as well.

Subsequent percentile level of technology will be exponentially higher in cost than the previous percentile.

With Kaveri I would say we are about at the 90th percentile. The remaining 10% to get the best performance possible (with todays frontier envelope) on MTBO (mean time between overhaul) and LLC (long term lifecycle costs) will be exponentially higher in cost given the amount of RnD companies that have it had to invest in getting it....and the fact only a few have done this (suppliers market).

This old paper has a summary of what I am talking about here, even though its somewhat an old paper , the same basic issues apply:

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/notes/2007/N1337.pdf

I cannot give exact numbers on overall percentile standings at this given moment (its somewhat subjective anyway) but here is a relative analysis:

Russian engines frontier is not as advanced as western (esp big 3). Chinese are aggressively trying to get to the Russian frontier through RnD iterations....and then continue from there. Its not easy task without injections from someone that has already trod the path and is pushing past even further today (i.e to catch up means you have to qualitatively and quantitatively conduct RnD and related production side implementation and feedback cycles in greater amount than the industry leaders just to make up the distance).

Thus it is definitely advisable for India to go for a foreign collaboration in pushing through this last 10% frontier and beyond (as frontier expands).

My relative ranking of the overall frontier level as it stands now would be:

GE > PW > RollsRoyce,Safran >>>>Russians>>Chinese,Indian

(Its an overall opinion, PW does lead GE in a few things, but I would say GE is ahead overall on some very crucial things like passive cooling geometries and also the level of tech and detail they have in say oil lines for lubrication)

Where India specifically lags the Chinese though is the implementation and feedback to get to 95% percentile. This is where any of the companies ahead of it can help. The further ahead they are, the more avenues they will have available which provide better hedging on stuff like creep mitigation, cooling geometries and design, combustion flows (my area of expertise), specific optimised metallurgy etc.

I am unsure if @zebra7 and others interested have read these threads, but they should be worthwhile to expand a bit on the subject. I can then answer any specific questions people may have:

https://defence.pk/threads/kaveri-n...130-kn-thrust-class-at-gtre-bangalore.445244/

https://defence.pk/threads/iaf-to-take-final-call-on-amca’s-engine-drdo-chief.438008/

@anant_s @django @SOHEIL @hellfire @litefire @Vergennes @Taygibay @Arsalan
@Manticore @Oscar
@Penguin @Bilal9

 

[wiseone2]

Subsequent percentile level of technology will be exponentially higher in cost than the previous percentile.

With Kaveri I would say we are about at the 90th percentile. The remaining 10% to get the best performance possible (with todays frontier envelope) on MTBO (mean time between overhaul) and LLC (long term lifecycle costs) will be exponentially higher in cost given the amount of RnD companies that have it had to invest in getting it....and the fact only a few have done this (suppliers market).

This old paper has a summary of what I am talking about here, even though its somewhat an old paper , the same basic issues apply:

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/notes/2007/N1337.pdf

I cannot give exact numbers on overall percentile standings at this given moment (its somewhat subjective anyway) but here is a relative analysis:

Russian engines frontier is not as advanced as western (esp big 3). Chinese are aggressively trying to get to the Russian frontier through RnD iterations....and then continue from there. Its not easy task without injections from someone that has already trod the path and is pushing past even further today (i.e to catch up means you have to qualitatively and quantitatively conduct RnD and related production side implementation and feedback cycles in greater amount than the industry leaders just to make up the distance).

Thus it is definitely advisable for India to go for a foreign collaboration in pushing through this last 10% frontier and beyond (as frontier expands).

My relative ranking of the overall frontier level as it stands now would be:

GE > PW > RollsRoyce,Safran >>>>Russians>>Chinese,Indian

(Its an overall opinion, PW does lead GE in a few things, but I would say GE is ahead overall on some very crucial things like passive cooling geometries and also the level of tech and detail they have in say oil lines for lubrication)

Where India specifically lags the Chinese though is the implementation and feedback to get to 95% percentile. This is where any of the companies ahead of it can help. The further ahead they are, the more avenues they will have available which provide better hedging on stuff like creep mitigation, cooling geometries and design, combustion flows (my area of expertise), specific optimised metallurgy etc.

I am unsure if @zebra7 and others interested have read these threads, but they should be worthwhile to expand a bit on the subject. I can then answer any specific questions people may have:

https://defence.pk/threads/kaveri-n...130-kn-thrust-class-at-gtre-bangalore.445244/

https://defence.pk/threads/iaf-to-take-final-call-on-amca’s-engine-drdo-chief.438008/

@anant_s @django @SOHEIL @hellfire @litefire @Vergennes @Taygibay @Arsalan
@Manticore @Oscar
@Penguin @Bilal9

Does it make sense for India to even invest in engine technology ? aren't there easier fish to fry ??

 

[Nilgiri]

Does it make sense for India to even invest in engine technology ? aren't there easier fish to fry ??

I would like to see India get into semiconductor base level production as well.

But I think jet engine technology is very important too given it has many dual use and technology carryovers.....similar to how ISRO functions past just immediate space tech.

You think P&W will share engine tech not necessarily F135 but other engines as well.

Forgot to conclude that....yes they will, if you offer them the right price/market share etc (and US govt on board with it etc). Same goes for the other big guys.

 

[Taygibay]

Can you help point some challenges as well. So that Jet Engine technology point can be discussed and understood more. Its to have a more realistic approach.

Let's be brutally honest : No mil engine maker will give you all their tech.
Assuming that all read and understood Nilgiri's post # 106, you get this
rise in price as you creep up in percentile points.
In short, if the lowest tech has no value, the top one has infinite value.

How to make an engine from kits is rather basic, comes with a local plant.
How to care for and adapt an engine as time passes comes with a full prod line.
At that level, a reputable corp will teach you lean management and just in time production as well.

Secrets of duralumin bolts are public domain and come free in book form
with any aircraft order.
Secrets of the alchemy of single crystal turbine blades with TBM coatings?
You can't buy that ... for everything else, there's Mastercard!

As a rule of thumb, the cost of the latest knowledge is that of all the funds for
the R&D of the next step so that they stay ahead of you

. . . and the last bits will only come once they're sure their program is viable.​

One has to establish what their biggest lack is and which corp is best fitted to
provide what they need most.

If you can, using the joint venture route is a good solution. Even with India's 49%
cap on foreign ownership, under a sliding rule calculation of royalties it should work.
Having given free reins to the foreign entity to lead development of Kaveri through
the JV and having established performances to be reached and a timeline, give a
lowering scale to the royalties format. If all goals are reached, the corp gets 100%
of what was agreed so their pocketbook and Indian Armed Forces benefit. If not ...
80% of expected results gets you 80% of expected royalties & 60 for 60 and so on.
If the JV fails, 0% of 0% of no sales means the asking party at least did not foot the bill.

Perfect ToT is a fan boy fallacy.

Great evening PariK, NilG and all, Tay

P.S.

But I think jet engine technology is very important too given it has many dual use and technology carryovers.....similar to how ISRO functions past just immediate space tech.

High perfs by-pass engines are also of interest in helos that are turbine powered
and similar to modern civilian aviation motors and may merge for high altitude space
fighters of tomorrow with those of missiles and space launchers and other applications
so yeah!

 

[wiseone2]

Let's be brutally honest : No mil engine maker will give you all their tech.
Assuming that all read and understood Nilgiri's post # 106, you get this
rise in price as you creep in percentile points.
In short, if the lowest tech has no value, the top one has infinite value.

How to make an engine from kits is rather basic, comes with a local plant.
How to care for and adapt an engine as time passes comes with a full prod line.
At that level, a reputable corp will teach you lean management and just in time production as well.

Secrets of duralumin bolts are public domain and come free in book form
with any aircraft order.
Secrets of the alchemy of single crystal turbine blades with TBM coatings?
You can't buy that ... for everything else, there's Mastercard!

As a rule of thumb, the cost of the latest knowledge is that of all the funds for
R&D of the next step so they stay ahead of you

. . . and the last bits will only come once they are sure their program is viable.​

One has to establish what their biggest lack is and which corp is best fitted to
provide what they need most.

If you can, using the joint venture route is a good solution. Even with India's 49%
cap on foreign ownership under a sliding rule calculation of royalties should work.
Having given free reins to the foreign entity to lead development of Kaveri through
the JV and having established performances to be reached and a timeline, give a
lowering scale to the royalties format. If all goals are reached, the corp gets 100%
of what was agreed so their pocketbook and Indian Armed Forces benefit. If not ...
80% of expected results gets you 80% of expected royalties & 60 for 60 and so on.
If the JV fails, 0% of 0% of no sales means the asking party at least did not foot the bill.

Perfect ToT is a fan boy fallacy.

Great evening PariK, NilG and all, Tay

P.S.


High perfs by-pass engines are also of interest in helos that are turbine powered
and similar to modern civilian aviation motors and may merge for high altitude space
fighters of tomorrow with those of missiles and space launchers and other applications
so yeah!

Wouldn't building engines for jet trainers, light helicopters, transport aircraft be easier than building engines for frontline fighter aircraft ?

 

[Nilgiri]

Perfect ToT is a fan boy fallacy.

This sir. A million thumbs up!

Wouldn't building engines for jet trainers, light helicopters, transport aircraft be easier than building engines for frontline fighter aircraft ?

Building top tier good to excellent engines for any military or civilian application is all very challenging. Fighters have their envelope of optimisation....but it doesnt mean the others do not have other ones as well

 

[Taygibay]

Wouldn't building engines for jet trainers, light helicopters, transport aircraft be easier than building engines for frontline fighter aircraft ?

Ah! Yes but not as great as you'd expect. If there's no challenge, you
don't need to get better and stagnate. Even then, those jets, especially
with Attack/Trainer ACs, need to stay up to date.

I haven't made a tally, @AUSTERLITZ might, but easier doesn't win wars all that much.

And you need indigenously sourced engines for politics free exports one day.

Have a great evening, Tay.

 

[wiseone2]

This sir. A million thumbs up!



Building top tier good to excellent engines for any military or civilian application is all very challenging. Fighters have their envelope of optimisation....but it doesnt mean the others do not have other ones as well

i found it odd the folks who worked on Kaveri project did not try to design a engine for Dhurv. may be they did and I am not aware.

 

[Nilgiri]

i found it odd the folks who worked on Kaveri project did not try to design a engine for Dhurv. may be they did and I am not aware.

I am sure there is a lot of cross pollination that occurred. Kaveri folks dont have to be physically present to handhold a lot of the stuff that is derived from the original project data and research.

 

[wiseone2]

Ah! Yes but not as great as you'd expect. If there's no challenge, you
don't need to get better and stagnate. Even then, those jets, especially
with Attack/Trainer ACs, need to stay up to date.

I haven't made a tally, @AUSTERLITZ might, but easier doesn't win wars all that much.

And you need indigenously sourced engines for politics free exports one day.

Have a great evening, Tay.

I see the need for jet engine for combat aircraft. it is a matter of priority and probability of success. I feel India is wasting money on a lot of grandiose projects with a high technological bar

 

[Taygibay]

I feel India is wasting money on a lot of grandiose projects with a high technological bar

It's only wasted if you don't learn from it.
Even flat out failure, if the reasons for it are understood
and correctives measures taken, can make you better.

That's why past prototyping efforts of the majors still bring
in results today.

Have a great day, Tay.

 

[wiseone2]

It's only wasted if you don't learn from it.
Even flat out failure, if the reasons for it are understood
and correctives measures taken, can make you better.

That's why past prototyping efforts of the majors still bring
in results today.

Have a great day, Tay.

agreed ...

 

[hoangsa74]

Receiving license to produce U.S fighter jet is one privilege that only 3 countries (south korea, Japan, turkey) have ever been given. India will be the 4th to receive this special privilege. The U.S is paying India to shift her usual nonaligned geopolitical stand toward the U.S no doubt about it.

 

[surya kiran]

The U.S is paying India to shift her usual nonaligned geopolitical stand toward the U.S no doubt about it.

There are 2 problems here :

1. We believe in multi polarity. No longer non-aligned, but, not in the way the US expects us to.
2. The 'payment' is all wrong. It is not what we want.

 

[hoangsa74]

There are 2 problems here :

1. We believe in multi polarity. No longer non-aligned, but, not in the way the US expects us to.
2. The 'payment' is all wrong. It is not what we want.

In bold, but not the U.S for sure. Why would the U.S gives away cutting edge tech to India if India does not do what the U.S expects her to do? Behind closed doors India must have provided some sort of deep commitment to the U.S; otherwise, India gains everything by receiving technologies that the U.S spent years to develop. On the other hand, the U.S gains nothing from helping India with her military industrial base. India needs the U.S more than the U.S needs India, my friend.