As much as I want to avoid discussing Dawn Leaks, I find myself indulged in this topic.
When PA rejected the notification of an elected PM, there was only one of the five options remained with either party.
1 - Bajwa resigns;
2 - Bajwa is fired (along with many Corps Commanders and DG ISPR);
3 - Nawaz resigns;
4 - Nawaz is fired along with the whole cabinet/ constitution; or
5 - Army retreats and takes back the tweet.
It was a grave mistake on part of Army, which underestimated the power of Godfather. In the past 30 years, he and his family, through extended relations and business interests, have not only gained unprecedented power within the country, but outside of the country as well.
Let me give you all, a little background of when and how it all started. In 1970s, when ZAB started nationalization of industries, and didn't touch the landlords, many people either left the country, or started hating the state of Pakistan. One of such families included Mian Shareef's, which grew hate at an enormous pace against the state of Pakistan. It was a foolish mistake from ZAB (I call it a crime against the state of Pakistan) when Pakistan's economy on the basis of electrical/ mechanical/ electronics industries was about to take-off. Had he not taken that criminal step, We would have been comparing ourselves with Malaysia by now. A lot of investors trust on the state was badly shattered, and they took the remaining money with them to foreign countries and many of them are now extremely successful industrialists. For them, Pakistan ceased to exist in 70s.
So coming back to the story, Shareef family was one of those families, that vowed to take back everything that they lost, by hook or by crook. They developed this extreme hate against the state and specially its institutions, which didn't take any action against this unconstitutional step.
Then with the help of our dear Army, they started taking back what they lost. But since they developed this thinking that they don't have to give back anything to the state until they get back what they lost in nationalization (with lost profit in those years). For them, Zakat was the only responsibility. Slowly, this turned into greed of having more and more. In the process, they started developing relationships with Army generals, bureaucrats and other powerful personalities. Once they were successful in getting important ministry of finance, all their hurdles were removed and they got access to the influential GCC countries. With access to unlimited amount of money they had due to being in the government, they started sending the government money to GCC through illegal channels. If anyone objected or found out about their marathon of remittances sent to GCC countries, they either paid huge money, or removed the guy by either killing him, or involving him in false cases. With establishment in one hand and bureaucracy in another, these crooks took huge benefit of their unique position they were enjoying in Pakistan. In 80s, the banking controls were also very weak due to the money being sent and received in connection with Afghan Jihad.
Since in Shareefs' minds, making money through illegal channels was their right (due to what state did to them in 70s), they didn't let any opportunity go away. By that time, they fed so much money to the national and international "friends" that these friends were ready to go to any extent if any help is required by the Shareefs anytime. Shareefs even didn't spare OBL and other religious extremists as for them, they could prove to be their assets in future, if required.
Establishment slowly started realizing that the snakelet has been converted into a Python, and that too extremely poisonous. When Musharraf ousted second government of Shareefs, he wouldn't have survived the international pressure had it not been the plan of US to attack Afghanistan. US neither helped NS in regaining the government, nor he stopped GCC from taking the family abroad to be sent back to Pakistan only after the major offensive in Afghanistan is over. Musharraf couldn't handle the pressure of GCC countries and sent him to KSA. Even if he decided to hang him on hijacking charges, he couldn't have done it.
Musharraf's action created another wave of hate, but this time against the establishment. The whole family thought about how to neutralize this threat in Pakistan, so that establishment is not able to take any action against them when they return to Pakistan for another episode of looting spree. They thought and decided that if they are somehow able to engage the forces, the threat from them acting against Shareef's government will be effectively neutralized. The best step was to develop business relationships with Indians, and assure them that Shareefs are ready to serve their interests against Pakistan if Indians also guarantee saving their interests at the crucial moments. Indians agreed, Shareefs gained enormous power through both of their friends and foes. The second strategy was that to bury Pakistan under huge amount of debt that will make it difficult to set aside adequate percentage of budget for defense without lending more money, thus effectively making our forces dependent on loans which aren't easy to obtain without government's involvement.
Now Shareefs have the full support of the following:
1 - Indians (Afghanistan comes with them for free)
2 - GCC (specially Qatar and KSA) and US
3 - Rogue internal elements who happen to be very powerful criminals in the guise of religious extremists
4 - Most of the bureaucracy and institutions
5 - Many of the judges in all the courts, from civil to SC
6 - Religious Scholars, such as Fazl ur Rahman and the likes
7 - Few Chinese investors, who like to win the business through commissions rather than through transparent awards
8 - Opposition parties (except very few, like PTI, JI and Sh. Rasheed)
9 - World lending bodies, such as IMF and World Bank, who like the fact that Shareefs have taken so many loans on their favorable terms. Shareefs even have installed some of their officers in these institutions (like Ishaq Dar in ADB)
When PA first sent the message to Shareefs that they will not bow to the pressure and will arrest the culprits, it was a hogwash. They assumed that Shareefs will eventually give in and PA will gain some lost ground against this Godfather. However, their all calculations proved wrong when NS decided to fire the chief and many other CCs. India/ Afghanistan and Iran (another Indian proxy) started pressurizing PA from all sides. Our friends (KSA and Turkey included) also made it clear to PA that after any unconstitutional step, Pakistan will become effectively isolated (and dream of India will come true).
Now let's look at the options that PA had once again.
1 - Bajwa resigns;
2 - Bajwa is fired (along with many Corps Commanders and DG ISPR);
3 - Nawaz resigns;
4 - Nawaz is fired along with the whole cabinet/ constitution; or
5 - Army retreats and takes back the tweet.
The first two would have been extremely demoralizing for Army and the nation. Any new chief would have been a pet of NS.
# 3, NS wasn't in the mood of this. If he had done it, it would have meant disastrous for his daughter and he wouldn't have gained the martyrdom for the next elections. Panama JIT would have become ineffective after his resignation.
# 4, NS really wanted this.. He knew that Bajwa and PA will not be able to sustain the financial as well as moral pressure from our friends, and PA will eventually announce the elections on international pressure.
The only way (through which Pakistan was being saved) was #5 and supporting JIT in Panama in the background and leave it on Allah swt.
NS is extremely powerful.. more than we think. He is more than a mafia. Mafias don't have public support, they don't have international support as well. NS in enjoying both in addition to the unlimited wealth he has accumulated over the past several years.
Now after reading above, can anyone of you think of another option that would have been better than what has been taken?
@Farah Sohail @war&peace @Verve @Realistic Change @Guvera @El_Swordsmen @El Sidd @Dil Pakistan
