Pakistan's Strategic Calculus ...

[President Camacho]

To be a superpower, a country must be able and willing to: "project power on a worldwide scale".

That seems completely unnecessary to me. Why should "China in 2030", care about projecting power to places like Nicuragua?

It's an enormous waste of money, and will earn you all sorts of enemies. Instead of wasting all that money on being a "global policeman", we could put it to good use back home.

Please read my post again. I have clearly made the difference between intent and inevitability, with a sparkling example. This time, try not to misread the status of power and lobbying as policing.

 

[GUNS-N- ROSES]

I think the whole south asia is thoroughly interconnected and complicated. there are no individual problems. the problems are also intermigled and interconnected. there is lot of mistrust between countries be it india/pak/afghanistan/US/iran/china. no country is willing to fully trust the other.

i believe there was tremendous opportunity to develop a stable afghan after exit of USSR. but USA dint really care for development of afghans and their rehabilitation. there was no plan discussed to disarm the mujahideens. This was the single biggest mistake. Pakistan used that opportunity to instal a talibani govt in place and we all know wat happened later.

we cant have stability in afghanistan untill and unless pakistan is stable. we cant have stability in pakistan untill and unless afghanistan is stable.

one thing i strongly believe the solution to south asia problems lie in peace full existance of india and pakistan. if both pakistan and india agree to conver LOC into permanent border with free trade access and movement for kashmiris then i m sure 90% of pakistan's problem will be solved. of course pakistan has to realise the situation is much worse for pakistan as compared to india. the more they get stubborn on kashmir the more tensions increase and with economy not doing well it wd continue to import large qty of arms.

if kashmir problem is solved, and pakistan assures that non state actors are not given free heaven in india then i m sure pakistan can get much more success in its fight against terrorism. may be u can see an indo pak joint team tackling problem in afghanistan.

only major question is will the solution be acceptable to pakistanis and more importantly who can dare to take such decision in pakistan and india. it will be a bold step mind u but it just might usher a new era of peace in south asia.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Please read my post again. I have clearly made the difference between intent and inevitability, with a sparkling example. This time, try not to misread the status of power and lobbying as policing.

OK, you'll have to explain your "sparkling example" to me.

No one becomes super power just by wanting to be one. And you cannot stop it either whether you want it whether you don't. Everyone wants to be a power to be strong enough to do some robust lobbying and have their way. There are hundreds of examples, but the best is when China and India both did at the WTO meetings.

 

[mrtopcopy]

Thanks for posting such an interesting topic. In my view, it is the best for Pakistan to hold a balanced position between USA and China in at least 20 years. But for a longer term, such as 50 years, I think Pakistan and China have the same interest which is to keep the power balance in South-Asia. For both of Pakistan and China, it will impair their interests if India becomes the only dominate power in South Asia. Therefore, in an visible long term, Pakistan and China still have a strong desire to strengthen the relationships between each other.

 

[muse]

it is the best for Pakistan to hold a balanced position between USA and China in at least 20 years. But for a longer term, such as 50 years, I think Pakistan and China have the same interest which is to keep the power balance in South-Asia

Is such a thing possible? Is it even right to think in such terms? After all, If Pakistan continues to be a economic basket case and governance in Pakistan continues to be perceived as unfair and tribal, why would China or US or anyone want to have anything to do with Pakistan??

Not only does Pakistan lack the basic capabilities that modern nation states must posses. It lacks them because it doesn’t know why it should possess them. Pakistan’s bureaucracy and parliament are crawling with LSE, Cambridge and Harvard graduates. This is not country that lacks generic capacity. It is a country that lacks a specific and overarching will. What use are the world’s best classrooms, and most revered texts in the absence of a moral compulsion to use them? And how could they ever be used effectively in the absence of an institutional framework to regulate their use? Mosharraf Zaidi

Pakistan must first figure our, once again, what a state is and why Pakistan needs to exist - yeah, it's back to basics, because Pakistan has deliberately gone out of it's way to lose itself, to lose the country Jinnah had created...and it succeeded

 

[Vinod2070]

How will tensions between the US and China affect Pakistan? Pakistan has been getting a lot of equipment from the US over the decades. But has Pakistan already chosen to go with China now? Is Pakistan prepared to continue facilitating US access to Central Asia?

I must say that Pakistan has played this delicate balance of being an ally of both China and USA for quite long.

How long it can be sustained is for time to tell. A lesser player would have given up long back.

Apparently, there is already a pushback from USA because of all this talk of "higher than and deeper than so and so". Almost all the aid and free top line weapons still come from USA. They are the ones that are the first to save the Pakistani lives when there is a natural crisis. Then what they get is the passionate hate of the country.

Now they are already asking what is your biggest ally doing? Why do you expect more from a country you so passionately hate compared to your supposed best friend?

At some time, Pakistan will need to make a choice. Given the people's mood, the choice seems clear.

 

[KS]

^ For all the talk of Greater than and Deeper than, IMO US still remains Pakistan's closest ally. Whether it is borne out of choice or necessity I dont know. But US has more influence in Islamabad than China.

 

[Vinod2070]

^ For all the talk of Greater than and Deeper than, IMO US still remains Pakistan's closest ally. Whether it is borne out of choice or necessity I dont know. But US has more influence in Islamabad than China.

Yes, they have still not replaced the 3 As with 2 As and a C. Not so far.

 

[justanobserver]

Yes, they have still not replaced the 3 As with 2 As and a C. Not so far.

Maybe it'll be 3 As plus a C ?

 

[KS]

Yes, they have still not replaced the 3 As with 2 As and a C. Not so far.

Maybe it'll be 3 As plus a C ?

Care to explain ? Its Friday night - the Drinking cap replaces the Thinking cap

 

[Vinod2070]

Care to explain ? Its Friday night - the Drinking cap replaces the Thinking cap

3As = Allah, Army and America.

 

[Agnostic_Indian]

3As = Allah, Army and America.

lol..nice one.

but soon the last A is going to be replaced by C.

 

[usman7881]

why are you Indians so worried about Pakistan. India has problems not only with Pakistan also with Srilanka worried about your own policies

 

[RazorMC]

The US has actually been doing quite well in Afghanistan lately, the Taliban are demoralized and want to reconcile. It is the Talib leadership that are captive in Pakistan that are the obstacle.

Further, it looks like the US is prepared for a long stay in Afghanistan.

I personally don't think that they are in any hurry to reconcile. The US may be able to stay in Afghanistan for a long time, but not forever and the Taliban know this very well. All they have to do is bide their time.

There is nothing objectionable in what you have written. But unfortunately, your way of helping Afghans has been by supporting the Taliban. That is why Pakistan is deeply resented in Afghanistan. And please don't try to play the Pashtun card. The resentment against Pakistan amongst Pashtuns is just as high as amongst Tajiks or Hazaras.

Agreed: Supporting the Taliban may not have been the best idea. But our way of helping Afghanistan extends to allowing them to use our port for their imports, as per UN resolution since Afghanistan is land-locked. This trade agreement is misused by both Pakistani and Afghan businessmen and smugglers to get illegal goods into Pakistan and legal goods enter our country tax-free. We don't push the UN to negotiate a similar role with Iran and to leave us out of this mess that costs us billions in lost taxes.
There was no Pashtun-card to play and I don't know what you saw. If you are referring to sending the refugees back, then that is no "card". I really do want to see them back in their country, not in ours.

There have been a few minor hiccups but overall the arms supply from the US has been very generous

Generous, yes. Without excessive negotiations and lobbying, absolutely not. An aid package gets approved by the US Congress. We seek to use that to boost our defense and lo and behold! prices for critical military hardware goes up, just for us.

When separatists campaign for election boycott, they get no response. When separatists contest the election, they lose their deposit. Independent opinion polls show support for merger with Pakistan is at most 2%.

If you are asking for a plebiscite, that is not going to happen as a matter of principle. But consider how Pakistan bans independence-minded parties like JKLF from contesting the election there. Is Pakistan afraid of the voice of the people? In India, there are no such restrictions, but the separatists are afraid to contest the elections and be exposed.

Anyway, if Musharraf's plan was not popular, what do you think is the best way forward for Pakistan? What effects do you foresee on Gilgit-Baltistan?

We have principles too, not just India. To be honest, I personally don't want to put forward a solution yet, until I have researched the history (free from Indian and Pakistani influence) of Kashmir a bit better.

This is fine, as long as your concerns are well-founded. So far there has not been any evidence at all about Indian support for insurgency.

The border between Pakistan-Afghanistan is quite porous with some population near the border on both sides. This is why we have to be careful when we detect activity near the border.

 

[RazorMC]

lol..nice one.

but soon the last A is going to be replaced by C.

The last A supplied a lot of defense eqiupment some of which turned out not to be so great after all (f-104 starfighter anyone?).
China is supplying a lot of military hardware to us but we are also focusing on building equipment ouselves as well.