Pakistan's 'secret' war in Baluchistan

[Perceptron]

Balochistan — point of no return?
By Malik Siraj Akbar
Published: January 12, 2012

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The writer has served as a former bureau chief of the Daily Times in Quetta and is currently a freelance journalist based in Washington DC. He was granted asylum in the US after threats to his life in Pakistan.

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Sardar Ataullah Mengal, Balochistan’s first chief minister, recently said after a meeting with PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif that the situation in Balochistan had reached a “point of no return”, adding that he had “no control” over the disillusioned Baloch youths who had taken to the hills to wage a war of liberation. The Baloch are angry with Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan and the Jamaat-e-Islami. The above three, they complain, organise marches against US foreign policy or in support of Palestine but they do not stage similar long marches in major cities like Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi to condemn the military’s violation of human rights in Balochistan.

The Baloch feel betrayed by the judiciary’s silence over the ‘kill and dump’ operations going on in the province. Although the Chief Justice of Pakistan is a native of Balochistan, the apex court seems to have abstained from playing a proactive role in halting the killing and dumping of those who disappear in the province. Perhaps, the army chief should sanction an independent inquiry into the cases of the missing persons.

The federal government should undertake a comprehensive list of confidence-building measures to bring Balochistan back from the ‘point of no return’. These should include economic and constitutional packages and will have to be implemented over a long period of time.

For instance, the federal government should make sure that no Baloch activist is arrested or killed for at least one year. This may look difficult at this point but it is extremely important for both sides to prove their commitment to a durable peace within a specified time frame. Another possible breakthrough can come forward if the military announces a unilateral end to its operations in the province.

Here are some responsibilities the Baloch nationalists should also own. They should remain assured that they have a genuine and convincing case of being subjected to oppression, therefore, they do not need to exaggerate these injustices. Exaggeration can hinder the resolution of political disputes through peaceful negotiations. The Baloch could have presented a strong case on any forum without foolishly resorting to killing unarmed Punjabi settlers in Balochistan. These killings have tremendously undermined the legitimacy of their struggle. A lot of Baloch leaders and activists justify these killings by terming them as a ‘reaction’ to the military’s brutalities.

Anti-Punjabi rhetoric can serve as a catalyst to garner support from disgruntled political activists but it cannot serve any long-term interest for a political movement. National movements need more sophisticated philosophical and ideological foundations. An intrinsic element of the Baloch culture is the centuries-old concept of bahot (protection) which means to protect the life of a ‘settler’ or an ‘outsider’ who comes to a Baloch area. Throughout Baloch history, we have not seen such brazen attacks on ‘outsiders’ on Baloch land as witnessed after the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti. These attacks clearly contradict the Baloch code of conduct, known as Balochiat¸ and they also alienate supporters of Balochistan who live outside the province and the country. Will the real progressive Baloch leaders stand up and apologise to the families of Punjabi settlers who were unjustly killed?

Today, criticising certain Baloch leaders is considered almost blasphemous and this closed the doors for dissenting ideas. The young Baloch believes his leader can’t err. Yet, in my judgment, the very leaders who galvanised the middle class Baloch youths, lack the political acumen and the vision to provide their followers and the rest of the world a clear roadmap for maximum autonomy or an independent Balochistan. When leaders are caught up in a situation where they have maximalist demands but no vision of how to achieve their goals, they end up getting all their soldiers arrested or killed.

Lastly, the Baloch and the centre need constant and long-term engagement. They must, at least, be clear about what they stand for instead of eternally and fatally fighting without making an inch of progress toward their desired destinations.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 12th, 2012.

 

[Perceptron]

Resolving Balochistan’s grievances

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BY MURTAZA HAIDER ON JANUARY 11TH, 2012

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This is for my friend Irfan Baloch. I beleive this is the best perspective i have read of Balochistan in years, and i wish to hear your comments on this article.

This is the third in a 3-part series on Balochistan. The first and second parts appeared on December 28, 2011 and January 04, 2012 respectively.

Two dominant theories attempt to contextualise the decades-long crisis in Balochistan. The Islamabad theory suggests that the state and its agencies are responsible for the lack of development, separatist movements and the resulting militancy in Balochistan. The Baloch theory holds the Baloch Sardars and foreign elements responsible for Balochistan’s woes.

Major Gregory Pipes of the United States Army has explored these theories in great detail.(1) He argues that denying democracy to Balochs, the economic exploitation of Balochistan’s natural resources, and military incursions are examples of state actions that have turned Baloch’s against the establishment. He presents empirical evidence to illustrate that state actions indeed have a direct impact on insurgency in Balochistan; any reconciliatory move by the state results in a decline in insurgent attacks, whereas any state-backed hostility against Balochs correlates with a spike in insurgency.

He uses data from 1,277 insurgent attacks reported in Balochistan during 2003 and 2009 to demonstrate that time and again Balochs have reacted rationally to the carrot and stick policies of the state. For instance, a 216 per cent increase in insurgent attacks was observed in response to the army establishing a military base near Sui. Similarly, attacks by insurgents increased by 855 per cent in reaction to the military operation in December 2005. At the same time, a significant decline in insurgent attacks was observed in response to the economic packages announced for Balochistan in October 2008 and March 2009.

The evidence presented in the table below explicitly illustrates Baloch willingness to resolve the conflict. If the propaganda against the Baloch insurgents is to be believed, which argues that the insurgents, while being supported by the foreign elements and Baloch sardars, are determined to secede from Pakistan, then one should not see any decline in violence in response to reconciliatory moves.

The Baloch theory, which accuses Baloch Sardars for Balochistan’s troubles, does not only enjoy the state’s blessings but is also favoured by many in print and news media in Pakistan. For instance, Shumaila Jaffery recently argued on Dawn’s website: “eing a journalist I have worked at places like Sui, Dera Bugti, Turbat and Youb. [The Baloch] Sardars have exploited the local population to the extent that we people with urban backgrounds cannot even imagine.”

Is it really true that the separatist Baloch Sardars have been instrumental in stunting the economic and social development of their people? For this to be true, one would expect to see lesser human development in areas under the influence of separatist Sardars and higher human development in areas under the influence of state-friendly sardars. For example, Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, a former Prime Minister in General Musharraf’s regime, is one such Baloch Sardar who has been friendly with the state for decades. Let us compare Jamali’s district of Nasirabad with Dera Bugti, which is the ancestral home of slain Baloch statesman, Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, who died in a military action in August 2006. If the Baloch theory holds, Nasirabad should enjoy significantly higher levels of development than Dera Bugti.

Statistically speaking, Nasirabad is marginally better than Dera Bugti in access to piped water and literacy rate (see the table below). At the same time, Dera Bugti reports significantly higher number of medical facilities, i.e. hospitals, basic health units, etc., and higher contraceptive use than Nasirabad. These comparative statistics illustrate that all areas of Balochistan are significantly underdeveloped regardless of the political persuasions of the dominant Sardars in the region.


Development indicators Dera Bugti Nasirabad
% of households with electricity 15.7 60.6
% of households with piped water 13.9 15.2
% of literate population (10 years & older) 11.7 12.7
Contraceptive prevalence rate (%) 13.7 11.8
Medical facilities 64 34
Source: Population Census, 1998 (latest data available)

The marked difference, however, is observed in access to electricity where 61 per cent households in Nasirabad compared to only 16 per cent households in Dera Bugti are electrified. The difference in electrification is a result of state patronage that benefitted Nasirabad, and not Dera Bugti. How would then one hold separatist Baloch Sardars responsible for under development when the state’s investments have favoured some and disadvantaged others?

The urbanised middle class and real estate magnates in Pakistan may continue to hold the Baloch Sardars responsible for Balochistan’s misgivings. However, given an opportunity, Pakistani urbanites may not hesitate in harming Baloch interests. Consider, for instance, the great land grab in progress in Gwadar where the indigenous of Gwadar have been left at the mercy of the big land developers from Lahore and Karachi.

The Gwadar Development Authority (GDA) lists the names and addresses of land developers who have been awarded development rights to date for developing 59 sq km of land in Gwadar. The list confirms suspicions of Baloch nationalists who had always feared that development in Gwadar will be hijacked by the powerful developers (and land mafias) domiciled elsewhere. According to GDA, Balochistan-based developers are in minority while developers whose addresses are listed in Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad are holding the stakes for 90 per cent of land development in Gwadar (see the graph below).

GDA has granted development rights for 12,533 acres of housing schemes alone. Once built and populated, the housing schemes will likely shift the demographic makeup of Gwadar, whose current population is a little shy of 200,000. Even at a low density of 50 persons per acre, once built the 12,533 acres of new housing development will attract roughly 600,000 new inhabitants to Gwadar, thus fundamentally changing its ethnic complexion.

The bigger question to address is why GDA has granted development rights to house a population that is likely to be 3-times the size of the current population of Gwadar. Has GDA or other agencies of the Balochistan government studied the socio-political implications of such a massive influx of people in a province whose population base is smaller than that of Lahore?

Given the potential for ethnic and social discord in Gwadar and the rest of Balochistan, there is a greater need for the establishment to ensure that any land development in Gwadar and its surroundings contributes primarily to the welfare of the people of Balochistan and not to the land developers from Lahore and Karachi or to the Baloch Sardars who may not be readily willing to share the spoils with the have-nots in their tribes.

Land is not the only source of grievance for Baloch nationalists in Gwadar. Analysing the greed, creed and governance in Balochistan, Professor Rabia Aslam revealed that despite being heralded as a game-changer in regional trade, the Gwadar port is unlikely to make a significant contribution to the provincial economy.

Professor Aslam revealed that the federal government will receive 50 per cent of the profits from Gwadar port and the Chinese firm responsible for operating Gawadar port will retain 48 per cent of the profits. A mere 2 per cent of the profits from Gwadar port are to accrue to the people of Balochistan. At the same time, most construction contracts at Gwadar port were awarded to non-Baloch firms who hired technical and other staff from outside of Balochistan.(2) Prof Aslam also noted that “in Balochistan the major source of revenue is natural gas. The province contributes roughly $1.4 billion per year through gas revenues, but receives only $116 million from the federal government in royalty.”

If the establishment in Pakistan allows the status quo to prevail in Balochistan, others would seek to profit from the ever-growing mistrust, and the resulting indiscriminate violence. The calls to secede Balochistan from the rest of Pakistan will come from all those who could benefit, even in the short term, from the chaos that prevails. Consider for example M. Chris Mason who called for an independent Balochistan in an op-ed piece in Canada’s The Globe and Mail in December 2011. Mr. Mason, who is a former US Naval officer and has served in the American foreign service, tries to exploit the Baloch grievances by pushing for an independent Balochistan as a solution (sic) to Pakistan’s problems. Calling Pakistan a rogue state, a term favoured by the American neo-cons, Mr. Mason sees an independent Balochistan merely a supply line to feed and support Nato’s troops in Afghanistan via Gwadar.

While Mr. Mason’s optimism for an overnight solution for the “region’s most intractable problems” is wishful thinking at best, however, those who favour an outright separation of Balochistan from Pakistan fail to recognise that ethnic Balochs (Balochi and Brahui speakers) in Balochistan represent a bare majority of 55 per cent. The rest comprise Pushtuns (30 per cent), Sindhis (6 per cent), Punjabis (3 per cent) and others. Haris Gazdar, a renowned economist, believes that such ethnic diversity “adds a dimension, prima facie, to political fragmentation.”(3)

The majority of Pushtuns and others in Balochistan do not share the same enthusiasm for an independent Balochistan. Furthermore, non-Baloch ethnicities are concentrated in the northern districts of the province (see the map below), which further complicates the viability of an independent Balochistan within its current boundaries. In the worst case scenario, an all-out war for an independent Balochistan may lead to a civil war rather than a war between Balochs and Pakistan’s armed forces. It is therefore imperative that a negotiated settlement for the Baloch grievances be found at the earliest to avoid any further hardship for Balochs and other ethnicities in Balochistan.

The way forward

Major Pipes, who wants “to see the Baloch integrated into the mainstream of Pakistani social, political, and economic life,” offers several recommendations towards resolving the Balochistan’s grievances. He wants Pakistan’s establishment to ensure that “democracy is a fixed element of Baloch society” to achieve Baloch integration.This may even require a plebiscite for the Balochs to determine their own future. He advises Pakistan’s establishment to work with Baloch Sardars rather than fighting with them by encouraging a “dialogue between the center and the periphery.” He further recommends ending all military incursions because this approach has consistently failed in stemming Baloch separatist movements in the past. Lastly, he asks for a fair share for Balochs in royalties for the natural resources extracted from Balochistan so that the economic base of the province could be fortified.

Major Pipes advises the United States government to recognise that attempts to enfranchise Balochs through true democracy have resulted in a decline in violence. Thus he advises the US government to avoid backing military incursions in Balochistan, which have harmed the democratic forces in the province. He asks the US government to focus on eradicating the narcotics trade in the region that has helped fund the insurgency. Major Pipes also asks India and Afghanistan to cease any operations in Balochistan that may promote instability in Pakistan.

It is not for the lack of solutions that the Baloch insurgency has lasted over six decades. It is the lack of willingness to work towards an honourable and just resolution of Baloch grievances that has turned successive generations of Balochs against the idea of Pakistan. Balochs have responded positively to reconciliation in the past. They will do so again if an honest and earnest effort is made.

(1) Pipes, Gregory D. 2010. The Baloch-Islamabad tensions: Problems of national integration. Master’s thesis. Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California.

(2) Aslam, Rabia (2011). Greed, creed, and governance in civil conflicts: a case study of Balochistan. Contemporary South Asia. Vol. 19, Iss. 2.

(3) Gazdar, Haris (2007). Balochistan Economic Report, Background Paper on Social Structures and Migration.

Murtaza Haider, Ph.D. is the Associate Dean of research and graduate programs at the Ted Rogers School of Management at Ryerson University in Toronto. He can be reached by email at murtaza.haider@ryerson.ca

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Major Pipes must extend his recommendations to whole Pakistan but before doing that he should start from Texas and request the NeoCons to stop redrawing maps of the world.

much has been said about who's fault is that.. I have voted for these chaps in the past who now cry over the unfair treatment but they have been in the government in the past themselves.

that aside only the true democracy and sincere leadership in centre and in balochsitan is the solution. we all have the habit of blaming others.
it starts from blaming the rich, blaming the army, blaming the west and zionists and then blaming the weather.


there is no lack of willingness to work towards a good and lasting solution from the state. the commitment is more or less the same throughout Pakistan. I am not sure why Major Pipes managed to miss out the 150 vehicles per year demanded by Akbar Bughti from OGDC and other extortions


I cant comment on the graph and the table with percentages without knowing the data the sample size and source. it can be true or it can be assumption . although I clearly see flaws reference to GDA and the demographic makeup but I dont want to dismiss it without knowing more about it.

it is very natural of the locals to act protective when they see their way of life being challenged or themselves being marginalised and diluted.

Even the civilised nations in the west are not immune to this sentiment and show their hostility to illegal and economic migrants. Sadly in such cases the history goes with the ones that have money and resources. Had Australia for example been too sensitive to Aborigines then maybe there would still be a bamboo hut instead of the Sydney Opera. I don’t mean to offend the people of Makran or Gwadar and neither I am looking down upon Aborigines, the locals have to up their game if they want their due share in the pie of Gwadar. land developers as the name suggests happen to own land anywhere so their head office being in Quetta or Islamabad doesnt mean much and Karachi is mini Pakistan anyway and thats not a surprise that it has biggest representation. it is said that if you want to see more pashton or Baloch anywhere in Pakistan other than KP or Balochistan then head towards Karachi.

 

[prabhakar]

WASHINGTON: The US has urged Pakistan to “really lead and conduct a dialogue that takes the Balochistan issue forward”, says the US State Department.

State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland addressed the issue in a “twitter-briefing” that the department holds every Friday, allowing people from around the world to tweet their questions to her.

“This was a very popular question on our feed, so we wanted to make sure that we answered it today,” said Ms Nuland who focused on the violence plaguing Balochistan instead of tackling political issues raised in most of the tweets.

“The United States is deeply concerned about the ongoing violence in Balochistan, especially targeted killings, disappearances and other human rights abuses,” she said.

“This is a complex issue. We strongly believe that the best way forward is for all the parties to resolve their differences through peaceful dialogue.”

The State Department official noted that the US took the allegations of human rights abuses very seriously and had discussed these issues with Pakistani officials. “And we also urged them to really lead and conduct a dialogue that takes this issue forward,” she concluded.

While her answer may not satisfy Baloch nationalists who had sent most of the questions, it would still irk Pakistani authorities who do not want the Balochistan issue to be discussed at international forums.

Washington-based Baloch nationalists are hoping that Ms Nuland’s response would set an example and encourage other governments and international organisations, such as the United Nations, to address the issue.

The question that Ms Nuland responded to came from Pakistan from a person who identified himself only as “Cadet 1081” and asked: “Pakistan is committing genocide of the Baloch nation, why does the US not intervene in Balochistan and make us get our freedom?”

While Ms Nuland confined herself to addressing the issue of human rights violations, other respondents did not. “Pakistan is not killing Baloch people. Only the followers of Balach and Hyrbyar want freedom,” wrote Mr Spirit 110.

“Pakistan is killing innocent Baloch people and the world is blind. It is our right to be free,” wrote Behuman.

US urges Pakistan to hold dialogue on Balochistan | Newspaper | DAWN.COM

 

[FriendOfPakistan]

Nice talk is cheap. Makes you look good without any cost (if there is no action).

Let's say we hear "Pakistan urges US to hold dialogue with Iran". Will it make any difference ?

 

[53fd]

The US first says that Iran-Pakistan pipeline violates sanctions. Then it urges Pakistan to hold dialog on Balochistan, which is a pain to both Pakistan & Iran. And then all of a sudden, violence in Balochistan spikes up (with Baloch militants getting SAMs & other equipment not even the Taliban have access to). What's the common trend? Balochistan is the new "Kurdistan".

 

[Gautam]

peaceful dialogue is always beneficial. applicable to all including US.

 

[graphican]

None of their business.. Is USA also concerned about human rights violations in Gazza and Kashmir or Violations by US Soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan.. ??

How stupid and funny are these guys.. you feel like slapping them first and answering them later.

 

[Omar1984]

Balochistan is none of America's business. How dare they interfere in Pakistan to this height.

And Pakistanis beware. Indians are working hard on their cyber war against Pakistan. Twitter, youtube, anything that involves Pakistan. They are obsessed about Pakistan. My Baloch friends caught many of them pretending to be Baloch behind the computer. Know your enemy.

 

[darkinsky]

after US made policy of no kashmir interference???, hypocrites!

 

[Developereo]

This is America's response to the NATO route closures. Expect more of the same.

 

[Omar1984]

after US made policy of no kashmir interference???, hypocrites!

Next friday, gather all your friends on this lady's twitter page and pretend to be Kashmiri, Khalistani, Naxal, Dalits, Christian indians, and Maoist and talk to this lady about india's human rights violation.

Give indians a taste of their own medicine. I'm 100% sure those people asking america for freedom are not Baloch but bharatis pretending to be Baloch like they always do.

 

[Generally Khan]

oh they did, did they!

He's right. I've seen many Indians pretending to be Baloch while looking at their activity history you can see they subscribed to IndiaDefence channel or liked videos such as 'Join Indian Air Force' or simply liked Hindu religious videos.

Here's one Indiot: SARTHAK

There are 100s like him. Then there are others running sophisticated ops and pretending to be Balochs supporting liberation movement but they are easily tracked too. However, I am disinclined to reveal them.


As for the Baloch problem, we care about them very much. I write a letter every month to our national assembly member calling for action. I have talked to many Baloch friends of mine and they tend to agree that the solution to Balochistan is a political settlement with more economic investment in the region.

On a personal note, since David Petraeus became the director of CIA this year, he is very anti-Pakistan, things in Balochistan have heated up and media war has started. I don't expect this situation to be resolved anytime soon. CIA has till 2014 in Afghanistan but it would be best if Pakistan keep supply routes blocked.

 

[HAIDER]

To resolve Baluch problem, first Pakistan need to resolve the Afghan problem . It is obvious majority of Baluch rebel leadership moved to Europe. These few Baluch rebel groups stationed and operating from their. Plus Indian has very obvious role in this whole scenario .

 

[Safriz]

who told USA to poke their nose in this matter.
nothing to do with them..its pakistans internal issue to which they are no party and nobody.