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Pakistan's nuclear arsenal to increase significantly over next 10 years: SIPRI

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Pakistan's nuclear arsenal to increase significantly over next 10 years: SIPRI
By AFP
Published: June 13, 2016
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PHOTO: ISPR

STOCKHOLM: Two bordering, rival countries are increasing their capacities: India is beefing up its nuclear-capable ballistic missile programme and speeding up its plutonium production, while neighbouring Pakistan is developing battlefield nuclear weapons in a bid to offset India’s superior conventional forces.

Pakistan’s “nuclear arsenal may increase significantly over the next decade,” the institute warned.

Indian membership bid: For NSG consensus, China says more talks needed

The world’s biggest nuclear powers, the US and Russia, are slowly reducing their nuclear arsenals but are modernising their capacities, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said on Monday.

Nine states — the US, Russia, Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea — had 15,395 nuclear warheads at the start of 2016, including 4,120 which were operationally deployed, the institutes’s annual report said.

At the beginning of 2015, the number was 15,850.

“Global nuclear weapon inventories have been declining since they peaked at nearly 70,000 nuclear warheads in the mid-1980s. The decline has been due primarily to cuts made in the Russian and US nuclear forces,” researchers Shannon Kile and Hans Kristensen wrote in the report.

China says more talks needed to build consensus on nuclear export club

The reductions are the result of three arms limitation treaties signed since 1991, as well as unilateral force reductions by the world’s two nuclear superpowers.

“However, the pace of their reductions appears to be slowing compared with a decade ago, and neither Russia nor the US… has made significant reductions in its deployed strategic nuclear forces since the bilateral New START treaty” entered into force in 2011, SIPRI said.

Russia was estimated to have 7,290 nuclear warheads at the start of 2016, and the US 7,000, with the two countries accounting for 93 percent of nuclear weapons in the world, it said.

Pakistan seeks NSG membership to curb nuclear proliferation

They were followed by France (300), China (260), Britain (215), Pakistan (110-130), India (100-120), Israel (80) and North Korea (10), a reclusive country for which the data is uncertain and therefore not included in the overall totals.

“None of the nuclear weapon-possessing states are prepared to give up their nuclear arsenals for the foreseeable future,” SIPRI said, noting that Washington and Moscow have “extensive and expensive nuclear modernisation programmes under way.”

SIPRI concluded that worldwide, “the prospects for genuine progress towards nuclear disarmament remain gloomy
 
i have been hearing statements like pak has the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world and it will cross many countries in nuclear in near future for the past 10 yrs or so . but the data provided by such analysts showed pak nukes around 100 ten yrs ago and today it's around 110- 120. according to such stats pak is producing one nuclear weapon in 1 year. i really doubt that it is fastest growth rate of nukes in the world.
 
india has world's fastest growing nuclear arsenal...not us.

Pakistan should focus on developing thermonuclear weapons with modern ballistic missiles with MIRVs...That should be our plan for next 10 years (by 2025).
 
india has world's fastest growing nuclear arsenal...not us.

Pakistan should focus on developing thermonuclear weapons with modern ballistic missiles with MIRVs...That should be our plan for next 10 years (by 2025).

Incorrect. India's nuclear weapons have been frozen since 2008 when India in principle agreed to adhere to CTBT & FMCT in return for the Nuclear deal. India has also given commitment to sign both these agreements as and when they come up for ratification. Currently, Pakistan is the only country in the world which is preventing the ratification of these agreements. Pakistan very well knows that it would have to agree to adhere to these agreements as part of its nuclear deal negotiations hence has been on a blitz to drastically increase its nuclear arsenal before the door closes.

Currently, Pakistan has around 150-160. SIPRI's numbers are very conservative.
 
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india has world's fastest growing nuclear arsenal...not us.

Pakistan should focus on developing thermonuclear weapons with modern ballistic missiles with MIRVs...That should be our plan for next 10 years (by 2025).
We barely have any nukes, the ones we have apparently according to Pakistani analysts were duds, so the world doesn't need to worry about us at all.
 
Incorrect. India's nuclear weapons have been frozen since 2008 when India in principle agreed to adhere to CTBT & FMCT in return for Nuclear deal. India has also given commitment to sign both these agreements as and when they come up for ratification. Currently, Pakistan is the only country in the world which is preventing the ratification of these agreements. Pakistan very well knows that it would have to agree to adhere to these agreements as part of its nuclear deal negotiations hence has been on a blitz to drastically increase its nuclear arsenal before the door closes.

Currently, Pakistan has around 150-160. SIPRI's numbers are very conservative.
I think Pakistan has around 74-104 nukes...not more than that because 6 of them it tested and Pakistan did not make many after 1998 tests since it thinks that minimum deterrence has to be maintained.
 
I think Pakistan has around 74-104 nukes...not more than that because 6 of them it tested and Pakistan did not make many after 1998 tests since it thinks that minimum deterrence has to be maintained.

Incorrect. Pakistan operates four plutonium production reactors and has been producing 20 nuclear warheads every year.
 
And Pakistan should keep increasing its nuclear arsenal & developing missiles.
 
And Pakistan should keep increasing its nuclear arsenal & developing missiles.
It should but Pakistan is totally complacent. We need to expand not just in number but in quality i.e. thermonukes and the big stuff as the enemy has large number of metroplitan targets instead of focussing so much on TNWs. This will help Pakistan maintain the deterrence.
 
Incorrect. Pakistan operates four plutonium production reactors and has been producing 20 nuclear warheads every year.
Let's do the math.
If that so then it means 2015-1998= 17 so 17*20 = 340 okay lets reduce to half and that means 170 nukes added just since 1998 and if Pakistan had at least 50 (considering 5 nukes/year since 1984) left after May 98 experiments, means Pakistan has 230 and....which is not the number right? and you don't believe that Pakistan only started in 1998 right? so what's the truth because your claim does not add up as per your esitmate Pakistan should have around 390 nukes leaving China behind :D while you claimed Pakistan has only 150-160. It means the rate is much slower around 3-4 per year.
 
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Let's do the math.
If that so then it means 2015-1998= 17 so 17*20 = 340 okay lets reduce to half and that means 170 nukes added just since 1998 and if Pakistan had at least 50 (considering 5 nukes/year since 1984) left after May 98 experiments, means Pakistan has 230 and....which is not the number right? and you don't believe that Pakistan only started in 1998 right? so what's the truth because your claim does not add up as per your esitmate Pakistan should have around 390 nukes leaving China behind :D while you claimed Pakistan has only 150-160. It means the rate is much slower around 3-4 per year.

As I said in my earlier post Pakistan has been on full throttle in the recent year in anticipation of it adhering to the treaty in return for the nuclear deal and there is no dispute that Pakistan has capacity to produce 20 warheads per year.


http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/64583-ban-to-open-ctbt-conference-at-un-hq-on-september-29
 

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