Pakistan’s misguided obsession with infrastructure

[Mo12]

stupid article.

as pakistan grows, more cars will be on the road. its an investment for the future

 

[maximuswarrior]

This article simply presents a straw man argument to deter foreign investment in Pakistan.

As CPEC development heats up, the disinformation campaign and propaganda against Pakistani economic developments will increase to deter foreign investors.

Expect people like Tarek Fatah et al to increase their activities at the behest of their Indian handlers.

The United States Central Command division is already allying with India to counterbalance Chinas increasing presence in the Arabian Sea. This brings in the american dimension in anti-Pakistani rethoric

Sadly, the age of information has become followed by the age of disinformation Most of the news we read is false or a half-truth.

This is all it is. Had it been American or Indian investment for infrastructure it would have been out of this world. Our enemies are jittery about the incredible cooperation between Pakistan and China.

India and the USA will have to get used to Pak China cooperation because this is only the beginning.

 

[newb3e]

I think shareefs have some weird fetish for concrete and steel!

 

[maximuswarrior]

I think shareefs have some weird fetish for concrete and steel!

If Shareef has a fetish with steel and concrete I wonder what the developed world has with steel and concrete...

 

[Hareeb]

So if you don't have infrastructure, how the hell are you going to build factories and promote value-added good?

Infrastructure of what kind? There are many of them. Simple equation is: lets suppose Orange line Train is an investment of Rs. 150 billion. People were using Multan road for decades and the road was upgraded in recent past. If this investment of Rs.150 billion were used to build: lets suppose a car manufacturing factory, then how many people would have been provided with jobs directly or indirectly and how much tax government would have generated from that factory, and then used the profit for infrastructure like Orange line train. Now the investment (loans + interest to be paid) on Orange line train is useless. The project will not repay the investment for decades while government will provide subsidy of Rs. 45/ pessenger for one turn.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

The government is building more airports, roads and railways, even though the existing ones are underused.

NEARLY 20 years after it opened, Pakistan’s first motorway still has a desolate feel. There is scant traffic along the 375km link between Islamabad and Lahore (pictured). Motorists can drive for miles without seeing another vehicle, save perhaps for traffic cops manning speed traps. As the two cities are already connected by the Grand Trunk Road, which is 90km shorter and toll-free, there is simply not much demand for a motorway.

Yet this $1.2bn white elephant is one of the proudest achievements of Nawaz Sharif, who was prime minister when it opened in 1997 and is once again running Pakistan. Mr Sharif, who enjoys comparisons to Sher Shah Suri, a 16th-century ruler who renovated the Grand Trunk Road, never tires of talking about it. He regained power in 2013 with a campaign which both harked back to his famous road and promised more infrastructure to come. He even pledged bullet trains that would enable pious passengers to leave Karachi after dawn prayers and arrive in Peshawar, more than 1,000km to the north, in time for evening worship.
It is an article of faith for Mr Sharif and his party, the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), that investment in infrastructure is a foolproof way of boosting the economy. His government is racing to finish umpteen projects before the next election, due by mid-2018, including a metro line in Lahore and a new airport for Islamabad. The likelihood is that the new airport (which has been plagued with problems, including runways that have been built too close together) will be as underused as most of the country’s other airports, many of which are modern and spacious.

Pakistan’s infrastructure is underused because the economic boom it was meant to trigger has never arrived. Over the past three years the government has successfully staved off a balance-of-payments crisis, achieving some measure of macroeconomic stability. It has trimmed the budget deficit, partly by broadening the tax take and partly by cutting energy subsidies. That, along with lower oil prices, has narrowed Pakistan’s trade deficit and allowed it to begin rebuilding its foreign-exchange reserves. The stockmarket has risen by 50% since the end of 2015.

But terrorism and insurgency have put off investors, both
foreign and domestic. The country is also held back by inefficient and often cartelised industries, which have fallen behind rivals in India and Bangladesh. Exports, 60% of which are textiles, have been shrinking for years. Much more needs to be done to create an educated workforce. Almost half of all those aged five to 16 are out of school—25m children. Health, like education, is woefully underfunded, in part because successive governments shy away from taxing the wealthy. Only 0.6% of the population pays income tax. As the World Bank puts it, Pakistan’s long-term development depends on “better nutrition, health and education”.

Cement to be

But Mr Sharif’s government is pinning its hopes on yet more infrastructure to fix the country’s economic problems, in the form of a $46bn investment scheme known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Much of it is being financed on commercial terms, including several power plants. Pakistan undoubtedly needs to relieve a chronic shortage of electricity. But critics fear the country will struggle to pay back the debt, especially if foreign-exchange earnings from exports continue to dwindle. At the very least, the government will need to continue chasing deadbeat customers to pay their bills and cutting expensive subsidies—steps that are deeply unpopular.

In addition to boosting Pakistan’s power supply, CPEC is supposed to link China by land to Gwadar, a deep-water port on the Arabian Sea, in the hope of creating a lucrative new trade route. New or upgraded roads will stretch the length of the country. The Karakoram Highway between the two countries, which was built in the 1960s at vast expense over a high and crumbly mountain range, is being upgraded as part of the trade corridor. But it forever needs patching up and is little used. Sceptics say Xinjiang, China’s westernmost region, is still too poor for better transport links to make much difference to Pakistan’s economy. Securing isolated stretches of road from separatist rebels in Balochistan is also gobbling up large amounts of cash.

Lijian Zhao, a Chinese diplomat, says China is all too aware that Pakistan needs more than just big-ticket infrastructure if it is to flourish. Disarmingly, he praises the efforts of Britain and other countries to improve Pakistan’s “software”, such as education and the rule of law. “But China’s expertise is hardware,” says Mr Zhao.

It may not concern Mr Sharif unduly if the next generation of roads is as deserted as the last. Civilian governments have often struggled to get much done in between military coups, but voters are impressed by gleaming new projects, even if they never use them. It’s an approach that has worked for Mr Sharif’s brother, Shehbaz, the popular chief minister of Punjab province. He has lavished resources on endless sequences of over- and underpasses to create “signal-free” traffic corridors in Lahore, the provincial capital, that are of most benefit to the rich minority who can afford cars.

There are limits, however. Khawaja Saad Rafique, the railways minister, recently admitted to parliament that the country would not be getting a bullet train after all. “When we asked the Chinese about it, they laughed at us,” he said.

http://www.economist.com/news/asia/...ds-and-railways-even-though-existing-ones-are

You can never please everyone. If we weren't building infrastructure then the Pakistani establishment would be accused of being unprogressive. If we do create good infrastructure then we are accused of wasting time and money. Damned if you do. Damned if you don't......

 

[maximuswarrior]

Quite an unrealistic post.

If we look at all developed nations of world they have few characteristics

a) Roads & Railways
b) Interconnectivity between cities
c) Airports / Sea ports
d) POWER in abundance for residential & commercial projects
e) Industrial Hub , which needs power [Power shortage was the #1 issue since 2010]
f) Financial Banks & Lenders who support Local domestic projects
g) Water projects (Dams)


So based on these few items that I listed , now I am not sure what the "economist" suggests that infrastructure does not aids in progress of a national interest.

Let us take a step back and assume between 90's and 2010 , we had not invested a penny in roads and highways can you imagine the backwardness we would have faced , as no investor would have shown interst with the added burden

At least when we look at the map at present we see 50% -75% if the country was connected before CPEC started meaning the new investors or Partners , they had a solid foundation to build upon

May be the economist feels money grows on trees, and with out solid foundation of infrastructure , people can just teleport from one city to another , or goods can travel on back of pegions from city of Lahore to Karachi.

Also having a duel investment in Trains and Roads , we were lucky that when our Railways fell behind , we could rely on roads to pick up the ground transportation load. Can the Economist suggest what would be alternative for us had we not constructed roads in past?

Furthermore, one of the critical points the Economist or the author of the article is missing is who is driving the project forward, it is a nation who constructed the Mega Dam project in China and presently a grand helpful nation who are furthering cause of humanity and cooperation world wide.

May be the economist author can plug a wire into his hind and power a lamp surely we don't need any infrastructure

Like someone has already said, we will see more and more propaganda against CPEC and China Pak cooperation in general. This criticism was nowhere to be found when CPEC was non existent. The real pain is the intensified cooperation between China and Pakistan on multiple fronts. From economic trade to defence and major infrastructure projects. The enemies just don't want to see Pakistan grow. The enemies don't hide their dislike for our growth and development. They don't want a good relationship between China and Pakistan. Hence they resort to illogical reasoning.

Only a madman would proclaim that infrastructure is bad or a misguided obsession. Especially infrastructure that will be used for mass trade which will generate massive revenue in various forms. The pain is not infrastructure. The pain is China Pak cooperation. Had these infrastructure projects been initiated and sponsored by Western capitals we would have only heard and read praises.

 

[The SC]

The article is saying why do you need a delivery vehicle if you have a nuclear bomb? it is a bit stupid..A country does not start making quality goods without the means to deliver them to the customers..read, roads, ports, airports and commercial hubs..

 

[Flash_Ninja]

So if you don't have infrastructure, how the hell are you going to build factories and promote value-added good?

There are other priorities before infrastructure such as healthcare and education. There are approximately 200m people with 30% of them living below the poverty line.

Besides, Pakistan has a mostly agricultural driven economy and should embrace new farming techniques and new technologies. These are expensive, so Increasing the income and educational opportunities of rural communities means that people will end up having a better chance of improving their own crop production in quantity and quality, which will allow them to compete with goods from the rest of the world.

Countries like China and South Korea used industrial growth to build hospitals and schools, but their economies took off at a time when the world needed cheap human labor. Nowadays as components, and electrical supply become cheaper, machines will take over and the countries with the best industrial technology will have the highest growth. Using machines means: 24/7 labor, no continuous wages, no labor unions, higher quality goods which can be sold lower than competitors.

If we want industry in Pakistan then there should be promotion of Pakistan internationally (which is not happening), and large investments into research and higher education (also not happening), instead of just taking loans and building roads, no business invests on the sole basis of infrastructure.

 

[maximuswarrior]

The article is saying why do you need a delivery vehicle if you have a nuclear bomb? it is a bit stupid..A country does not start making quality goods without the means to deliver them to the customers..read, roads, ports, airports and commercial hubs..

As far as Pakistan goes it is very simple. They tried the ethnic and religious card to sow divide. They failed. They tried economic sanctions. They failed. They went onto drone strikes and proxy wars from across the border for more than a decade. They failed miserably in each attempt. They tried to isolate Pakistan. They failed.

Instead of weakening and balkanizing Pakistan they today see an emboldened Pakistan. One that is working in close cooperation with China to address its economic and security needs. They failed in all of their misadventures against Pakistan. They could not turn Pakistan into an Iraq or Syria where there is mass chaos and bloodshed. This failure haunts them. They are angry and confused. Now they resort to misinformation. It will fail as well because the world has started realizing the potential of CPEC. When China commits to something it is a success.

 

[simplestguy]

You can never please everyone. If we weren't building infrastructure then the Pakistani establishment would be accused of being unprogressive. If we do create good infrastructure then we are accused of wasting time and money. Damned if you do. Damned if you don't......

Building infrastructure is good, the writer is complaining about why this motorway is not benefitting the masses? the motorway is 90km farther than the ordinary (Grand Trunk Road) route, do u prefer to go for a shorter or farther route? With 90km shorter you can save much time and oil. And thats why majority of traffic go through Grand Trunk Road.

 

[somebozo]

Infrastructure of what kind? There are many of them. Simple equation is: lets suppose Orange line Train is an investment of Rs. 150 billion. People were using Multan road for decades and the road was upgraded in recent past. If this investment of Rs.150 billion were used to build: lets suppose a car manufacturing factory, then how many people would have been provided with jobs directly or indirectly and how much tax government would have generated from that factory, and then used the profit for infrastructure like Orange line train. Now the investment (loans + interest to be paid) on Orange line train is useless. The project will not repay the investment for decades while government will provide subsidy of Rs. 45/ pessenger for one turn.

Simpleton brains are the worst disaster for any country..Pakistan need to wean off its fuel subsidies, limit environmental pollution and above all control its expensive fuel import bills..Metro tend to offer all these benefits..putting more cars on the roads will be do the reverse...secondly not everyone can afford cars in Pakistan..third the traffic needs to be reduced for lowering road fatalities caused by traffic accidents and freeing up the lanes for trucks transport..

Building infrastructure is good, the writer is complaining about why this motorway is not benefitting the masses? the motorway is 90km farther than the ordinary (Grand Trunk Road) route, do u prefer to go for a shorter or farther route? With 90km shorter you can save much time and oil. And thats why majority of traffic go through Grand Trunk Road.

Efficiency matters..once the grand trunk road is saturated..heavier traffic will take the motor way...it is efficiency to be burning fuel driving than being stuck in traffic...

 

[maximuswarrior]

As the World Bank puts it, Pakistan’s long-term development depends on “better nutrition, health and education”.

Nutrition, health and education don't come for free. They require resources. Massive resources to be precise. We can criticise our leaders for a million things, but CPEC and the associated infrastructure is a revenue generating project. The revenue generated from this project will be used for development, nutrition, health and education. It will directly benefit the masses of Pakistan. Obviously, America, the Western world or the author who criticize this undertaking are not going to provide the associated budget for nutrition, health and education. It has to come from somewhere and it won't be free lunch. CPEC will provide the revenue and much more.

Each country has its own strengths, opportunities and challenges. Whilst education and health are top priority for Pakistan so is revenue generation. Revenue will make both education and health a reality. Without it there won't be any health or education. Pakistan's strength lies in its geostrategic location. We are making most efficient use of our strength and infrastructure is a vital part. Labeling this as misguided obsession is unfounded and biased.

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

Countries like China and South Korea used industrial growth to build hospitals and schools, but their economies took off at a time

You skipped over the work that got them to get their economies to take off.

There is still and always will be a demand for cheap labor, the problem is whether Pakistan has the inputs to take those contracts.

 

[Kabira]

Building infrastructure is good, the writer is complaining about why this motorway is not benefitting the masses? the motorway is 90km farther than the ordinary (Grand Trunk Road) route, do u prefer to go for a shorter or farther route? With 90km shorter you can save much time and oil. And thats why majority of traffic go through Grand Trunk Road.

Despite being 90km shorter it still take more time on GT road because of speed, condition of road, traffic etc The reason majority of traffic goes through GT road is simple, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Jhelum, Pindi, are most developed and populated districts in north of punjab. More people have vehicles there then the ones in from where motorway run through. So if people from these districts need to go to Islamabad or Lahore they don't have any other choice but to use GT road.