.Pakistan's GDP has grown to $165bn

[Meengla]

Javed Jabbar is one of the most reliable, intelligent, liberal, and principled persons of Pakistan. He was part of the original Benazir Bhutto govt. of 1988 as the Information Minister but then quit over policy differences. But he continued/continues to support the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). He is not in the current govt. but is not shy to admire one something good is done by anyone.
Anyway, take out the WOT from the equation and you will see Pakistan galloping forward. As to those who talk about Pakistani economy going down after 2007--thus blaming democracy for that decline--they need to look at the political instability, escalation of terrorism AND a global economy where so many hitherto relatively prosperous countries like Greece, Iceland, Ireland have taken a bit hit--without even a single bomb being dropped on them.

So, it is not some 'corruption' by the politicians which has pegged Pakistan back. There are host of internal and external factors since 2007 which have done that. The biggest factor is the WOT.

 

[SMC]

When we look at Some of the Posters Ambitions for Pakistan in the future the GDP is very poor. BY ANY STANDRARD even Asian countries.

4% GROWTH OR EVEN 6% is not going to GET Pakistan to $350 billion GDP by 2020..

To more than double your GDP in 9 years yu need 9% compound growth per annum, NEAR ENOUGH.

For 9% growth you need the following..

Very large FDI
STRONG thriving Middle class 100 MILLION strong
New hi tech industrial bases
Stable govt
Educated IT & SCIENCE & ENGINEERING graduates in millions.
Confidence of the WESTERN world to come to your country to do business
Improving infrastucture with THE FOREX reserves to do this over 10 years.

Pakistan struggles in 80% of the above cases ... AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME

Few things,

At this point Pakistan is involved in a war, and just has had massive floods. We make predictions based on ground realities. We can't pull out a 9% growth rate if its unrealistic.

People like you need to take these kinds of things into account. This is the reason why our growth rate has dropped to 3-4%. It's not that it has dropped down just because Pakistan is not capable of having 7-9% growth.

Secondly, NO YOU DO NOT NEED 9% GROWTH RATE TO GET 350 BILLION GDP.

7% will do, just above 7%. We will most likely reach 7% or around there by 2015 and after that we will probably go up to around 8-10%.

Now please stop pulling out of your what you need for 9% growth. No there's no formula set in stone for what you need for 9% growth. For instance, why do you need 100 million middle class? Go look at Singapore, LOL. That's an utterly BS "requirement". Other than that, yes as soon as WoT starts winding down, even 80% of what you say will be satisfied (not that it needs to, just saying).

 

[SMC]

Thats like the wealth of Ambani brothers combined is equal to Pakistan GDP.

Amazing.

You do realize that there's about 1.2 billion people living in India? Ambani brothers and the people alike is not the whole of India?

 

[SMC]

WoT is expected to start winding down this summer.

This will help Pakistan a lot. As WoT winds down, the growth rate will pick up very quickly. It won't be like a 0.5% increase in a year. Probably 1% increase per year, or even 1.5 - 2%.

Which is why WoT ending is the greatest nightmare for some of the Indians (not all, again).

 

[PeacefulIndian]

I don't know about most of Indians, but I have heard from many of my Pakistani friends that end of WoT is actually a nightmare for current Pakistani govt considering the debt servicing they need to do without aid.

I for one vote for continuation of WoT for an entirely different issue. Kashmir.

From 2001 (WoT start) the fatalities have been reduced drastically. Few more years and graph will touch the zero line.

 

[SMC]

^ I am not sure where they're getting that info from, considering that what Pakistan loses due to WoT is like 5 times as much as the aid it gets. There's a reason why even GoP is looking forward for WoT to end. Besides, aid is usually reserved for specific purposes, not for debt servicing.

 

[Hyde]

Ok lets assume our economy is standing at 172 billion dollars for now

7% we need in next 10 years and it will be around 348 billion dollars.

GDP per capita would be around 1650 dollars+ by then.

GDP PPP would be well above 900 billion dollars and GDP PPP per capita would be at respectable level of 4300 dollars

 

[DesiGuy]

Thats like the wealth of Ambani brothers combined is equal to Pakistan GDP.

Amazing.

srry, but who is ambani?? I only know bill gates.

 

[VelocuR]

By TechLahore

In 5 years, my prediction should yield a GDP (nominal) of:

$263B

In 10 years, it should be at (nominal):

$370B

And in 15 years, it should be at (nominal):

2025: $570B


This should translate into a GDP-PPP of roughly $1.4 Trillion.

My take is that we'll average 6% over the next 5 years. We'll average 7% in the 5 after that, and anywhere from 8-10% in the 5 years after that.

My logic is that a couple of the GDP suppressors (floods, earthquakes) were "flukes" and statistically cannot be expected to repeat themselves over and over. So, assuming that these issues contributed to a 2-3% GDP growth impact, and also considering that we are growing at 4+% despite them, then the 6% average under similar political conditions, but improved environmental (as in acts of God) conditions should yield 6%.

Beyond this, we should start to see the benefits of an improved power infrastructure (availability of power to industry will continue to increase in the next 5 years), industries like IT and defence will be measurably substantial even at current rates of growth and deals on the table, and a more educated workforce will start to pay dividends. I say more educated because the literacy rate amongst 55-60 year old Pakistanis who will be retiring in the next 5 years, is lower than that amongst 13+ year old Pakistanis who will be entering the workforce in the next 5 years.

Beyond this 10 year period, we will have almost completely addressed power shortages, our irrigation and water management would have improved measurably (even assuming private sector initiatives), the fruits of many of the deals with Turkey/Iran (Istanbul-Tehran-Islamabad railway), China (transit trade, Gwadar) and the Oil Pipelines (IPC, TAPI) should be in full swing. The modernization of our agriculture sector and specifically the hunt for additional export markets for milk and meat products (e.g. the current nascent engagement with Malaysia) should also be more developed. Given that we are world's 5th largest milk producer with over 60 million animals in the country, these things can be hugely relevant.

Somewhere in the 5-10 year horizon, some solution would have materialized for Railways, PIA and so on. These will be draws for FDI as the telecom sector has been.

I am pretty confident that the estimates above are very conservative. The IMF's regional director is on record as stating that Pakistan's potential for GDP growth is 8+%, so I am not the only one saying these things.

If we do a couple of even slightly intelligent things, such as mandates for agricultural modernization aided by subsidies, we can grow our GDP easily at 10+%. But I am assuming in all my estimates above that there is no substantial change in the competence level of the Government in power.

Link

 

[Hyde]

Thats like the wealth of Ambani brothers combined is equal to Pakistan GDP.

Amazing.

and that also suggests the level of disparity in India

Ameer bohat ameer hai aur ghareeb bohat zayada ghareeb.

Ambani brothers alone makes up to 10% of India's economy...

and if you count other billionaires residing in India. Hundreds of billions of dollars are only owned by few companies. What else is left in India?

PS: Lets stick with Pakistan economy only - you don't have to compare Ambani's with Pakistan's GDP

 

[zombieland]

and that also suggests the level of disparity in India

Ameer bohat ameer hai aur ghareeb bohat zayada ghareeb.

Ambani brothers alone makes up to 10% of India's economy...

and if you count other billionaires residing in India. Hundreds of billions of dollars are only owned by few companies. What else is left in India?

PS: Lets stick with Pakistan economy only - you don't have to compare Ambani's with Pakistan's GDP

Are you sure !!!

Can you please take a look at PPP of India and then compare the same with ours.

PPP is an average purchasing power of how much people can own. India has a very very strong middle class with unprecedented hunger for consumption of goods.

Whether we can achieve the same is as of now .... a 'mirage'. But yes we can definitely strive towards it. And HOPE for the best .

 

[ares]

Are you sure !!!

Can you please take a look at PPP of India and then compare the same with ours.

PPP is an average purchasing power of how much people can own. India has a very very strong middle class with unprecedented hunger for consumption of goods.

Whether we can achieve the same is as of now .... a 'mirage'. But yes we can definitely strive towards it. And HOPE for the best .

India GDP(PPP) = $4.046 trillion
Pakistan GDP (PPP) = $451.2 billion

India GDP Per Capita(PPP) = $3,400
Pakistan GDP Per Capita(PPP) = $2,400

 

[Meengla]

^ I am not sure where they're getting that info from, considering that what Pakistan loses due to WoT is like 5 times as much as the aid it gets. There's a reason why even GoP is looking forward for WoT to end. Besides, aid is usually reserved for specific purposes, not for debt servicing.

WOT is a big loss for Pakistan! When the WOT was mostly confined to Afghanistan--sometime up to 2006/7--Pakistan's economy was going pretty okay.
Much of what comes to Pakistan in the name of 'aid' is payment/compensation or rescheduling of debt.

Yes, it is true that WOT is in India's interest if only a short-term view of Kashmir insurgency is considered. Long term, I am not sure. I tend to think that just like a stable, prosperous Afghanistan is in Pakistan's interest (despite the Durand Line issue) it would be in India's interests to have a stable, prosperous Pakistan, despite the Kashmir issue.
Well fed, upwardly mobile people don't generally like their governments to start chaos, wars, and bloodshed because of financial reasons.

 

[Hyde]

Are you sure !!!

Can you please take a look at PPP of India and then compare the same with ours.

PPP is an average purchasing power of how much people can own. India has a very very strong middle class with unprecedented hunger for consumption of goods.

Whether we can achieve the same is as of now .... a 'mirage'. But yes we can definitely strive towards it. And HOPE for the best .

He was comparing Ambani's with Pakistan's nominal GDP... so I had to follow the same rule in order to criticize his post. I know India's GDP PPP is much higher than that... just like Pakistan's GDP PPP is much higher than its nominal GDP.

 

[Hyde]

India GDP(PPP) = $4.046 trillion
Pakistan GDP (PPP) = $451.2 billion

India GDP Per Capita(PPP) = $3,400
Pakistan GDP Per Capita(PPP) = $2,400

why you increased India's GDP (PPP) slightly higher than its actual figure
and decreased Pakistan's GDP (PPP) slightly lower than its actual figure.

and also abused per capita income in the later part of your post?

India's GDP (PPP) per capita as per 2010: 3290 dollars according to IMF
Pakistan's GDP (PPP) per capita: 2789 dollars according to the same report of IMF

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