Pakistan's Economy Under-estimated, Karachi Equities Undervalued

[RiazHaq]

Thats larger than South Korea. Pretty impressive.

The big difference is that South Korea is a much smaller country with PPP GDP of $32,000 per capita.

 

[VCheng]

The big difference is that South Korea is a much smaller country with PPP GDP of $32,000 per capita.

An even bigger difference is that the calculations as described here are INACCURATE.

Pakistan is not a trillion dollar economy - yet.

 

[karan.1970]

From an outsider,s point of view

I stopped reading the drivel after this point

 

[Jade]

So Pakistan is a trillion dollar economy- only in Riaz's delusional world. It is beyond me how you come up with such absurd figures and go on to justifying yourself

 

[Luftwaffe]

Worth reading...

Economy in 2012-13 - Dr Ashfaque H Khan

 

[VCheng]

Worth reading...

Economy in 2012-13 - Dr Ashfaque H Khan

From the article above:

......

What is there in store for the economy in 2012-13? Before we answer this, it is essential that we summarise the state of the economy as it stands at the beginning of 2012-13. Lack of vision, direction, commitment, knowledge and understanding of Pakistan’s economy has destroyed the economy during the last four and a half years. By the end of the last fiscal year (2011-12), Pakistan’s economic growth slowed to an average of 3 percent per annum, equalling less than one-half of the average of 2002-07. Domestic investment hit a 60 years low and domestic saving experienced an unprecedented fall. Side by side, foreign private investment collapsed and inflation hovered in high double-digits with a corresponding deterioration in the business environment, unemployment and poverty figures and relations with the IFIs.

The root cause of our economic destruction has been the policy of ‘reckless borrowing and ruthless spending’ pursued by the government. The country has never witnessed such a level of fiscal profligacy with budget deficit touching 8.5 percent of the GDP in 2011-12. Resultantly, public debt has more than doubled in the last five years and consumed a bulk of tax revenue as interest payments. Non-availability of sufficient resources for social sector and infrastructure has resulted in the deterioration of education and health systems, crumbling of the infrastructure and worsening of the power crisis.

In short, by the end of 2011-12, Pakistan’s economy resembled a patient in intensive care unit fighting desperately for survival. To extend the analogy, the economic ‘doctors’ are least bothered about their ‘patient’. Should we expect any change in their attitude towards their patient (economy) at the tail end of their shift? Through the ‘ballot’ budget and ‘ballot’ monetary policy, the government has already revealed its preferences. Fiscal indiscipline is likely to attain new heights in 2012-13. Resources will be doled out to ‘win’ election in the name of ‘taraqiati programme’ (development budget).

No efforts will be made to mobilise additional resources by broadening the tax base and rationalising expenditure. No attempts will be made to address the issues of the NFC Award which has rendered the fiscal policy ineffective as a tool of the stabilisation policy. The ‘ballot’ budget 2012-13 failed to touch upon several key issues including agricultural income being drawn under the direct tax net, implementation of RGST, reforming of the petroleum sector taxation, bleeding PSEs, circular debt and strengthening of tax administration.

..........

 

[RiazHaq]

Worth reading...

Economy in 2012-13 - Dr Ashfaque H Khan

I share Dr. Ashfaque Khan's basic concerns about the government's handling of the economy. But it doesn't change the facts about the underlying strength of the economy as obvious from healthy private consumption and strong corporate profits.

Here's what I said in the concluding paragraph of my post:

"While Pakistan's public finances remain shaky, it appears that the country's economy is in fact healthier than what the official figures show. It also seems that the national debt is much less of a problem given the debt-to-GDP ratio of just 30% when informal economy is fully comprehended. Even a small but serious effort to collect more taxes can make a big dent in budget deficits. My hope is that increasing share of the informal economy will become documented with the rising use of technology. Bringing a small slice of it in the tax net will make a significant positive difference for public finances in the coming years. "

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's GDP Grossly Underestimated, Stocks Highly Undervalued

 

[VCheng]

I share Dr. Ashfaque Khan's basic concerns about the government's handling of the economy. But it doesn't change the facts about the underlying strength of the economy as obvious from healthy private consumption and strong corporate profits............

Let's see: What Dr. Khan describes as "a patient in intensive care unit fighting desperately for survival" you describe as capable of running a marathon the next day, since "things are not bad as they seem". Uh-huh. Right.

 

[Cherokee]

Even if i dont agree with @RiazHaq i appreciate his efforts to paint a good picture with some facts about Pakistan which is Positive . At the end of the day Hope is the only thing which keeps us alive .

 

[Wright]

An even bigger difference is that the calculations as described here are INACCURATE.

Pakistan is not a trillion dollar economy - yet.

According to recent listings, Pakistan is smaller than Israel and sweden economically. Nowhere close to a Trillion.

 

[VCheng]

Even if i dont agree with @RiazHaq i appreciate his efforts to paint a good picture with some facts about Pakistan which is Positive . At the end of the day Hope is the only thing which keeps us alive .

Please do note that "painting a positive picture" has been done for decades. Paint it all you want, but reality has a way of making itself felt. At some point, "painting a positive picture" must be called out for what it is - deception.

 

[Luftwaffe]

You cannot run your Country on shall-will do this and that, no predictions and forecast can save any country unless they really take steps to curb corruption-over spending-bad governance and best economic plans implementable. To the Author it appear but to most Pakistanis in Pakistan and outside Pakistan it appears to be in deplorable state. Author says "it appears" and next he says "economy is in fact healthier" if you ask me author is confused and has penned it down poorly.

 

[Cherokee]

Please do note that "painting a positive picture" has been done for decades. Paint it all you want, but reality has a way of making itself felt. At some point, "painting a positive picture" must be called out for what it is - deception.

I Thought it's a New Practice .

 

[Luftwaffe]

According to recent listings, Pakistan is smaller than Israel and sweden economically. Nowhere close to a Trillion.

Pakistan is a billion dollar economy but it is premature to say trillion dollar economy not in a decade. Pakistan population is close to 190M but poor governance and corruption is keeping Pakistan in poor economic state I do believe whatever Taxes are collected but it goes towards government's own pockets atleast 5 Trillion rupees are unaccounted for.

 

[RiazHaq]

You cannot run your Country on shall-will do this and that, no predictions and forecast can save any country unless they really take steps to curb corruption-over spending-bad governance and best economic plans implementable. To the Author it appear but to most Pakistanis in Pakistan and outside Pakistan it appears to be in deplorable state. Author says "it appears" and next he says "economy is in fact healthier" if you ask me author is confused and has penned it down poorly.

I think it's you who's confusing public fiances with the overall national economy. The two are very distinct.

While Pakistan's government is incurring debts and running deficits, the nation's private sector is quite healthy.

As Barron's reported, "the (Pakistani) firms are typically cash-rich, boast strong return on equity levels in the 20% range, and pay good dividends. In Pakistan, the informal, cash-based economy for goods and services is larger than the formal economy."