Pakistan’s economy to surpass $2 trillion by 2050

[Malik Alashter]

But what's your population would be that time.

 

[Hussain Farooqui]

Nawaz Sharif's performance in his first regime was very good. The next two regimes have been very disappointing. In his first regime, he was ousted by the foreign backed agent Gulam Ishaq Khan for his policies. Later, in his following regime, he simply became a dictation boy of the American govt..

*Condition applied - If and only If the great Nawaz Sharif rule Pakistan for another 12 years.[/QUOTE

 

[Nilgiri]

But what's your population would be that time.

Who you asking?

Bear in mind, Indian population growth rate is going to be much lower than Pakistan's in the coming decades.

 

[Hussain Farooqui]

But what's your population would be that time.

We have ample resources to feed even an increased population. We don't lack any resources. The main problem with us is the foreign intervention in our internal affairs.

 

[farhan_9909]

Yes Nominal and Real are two different comparisons and real is definitely more superior.

But Pakistan the nominal growth tends to be much lower to begin with (especially in recent years) and the real growth is also far lower than India's.

Let us look at IMF data for the last 14 years or so (from 2000 - 2014):

Report for Selected Countries and Subjects

When we look at nominal (current prices) growth, the average growth rate (using GDP14/GDP00 ^(1/14)) is:

Pakistan = 250.1/79.8 ^(1/14) = 1.085 = 8.5% growth per year

India = 2049.5/476.6 ^(1/14) = 1.1098 = 11% growth per year

When we look at real (constant prices) growth, the average growth rate is:

Pakistan = 10227/5655 ^(1/14) = 1.0432 = 4.3% growth per year
India = 106323/40044 ^(1/14) = 1.0722 = 7.2% growth per year

So basically each country "loses" about 4 percentage points of growth due to inflation + currency appreciation to the USD and a few other factors. But Indian growth has been appreciably higher on average whichever system you are looking at....and in percentage terms India's real growth rate is at about 2/3rds of its nominal growth rate whereas Pakistan's real growth rate is about half of its nominal growth rate. i.e there is better overall conversion of "Real" growth from the raw nominal growth in India compared to Pakistan...and it is also much larger to begin with.

So India is definitely ahead in the economic growth story and it looks to be on a more solid trajectory in both short and long term.

Pakistan will need to bring significant structural changes to its economy to accelerate to the next level of growth.

thanks

well i will post the data later,but between 2002-2007,Indian GDP numbers increased by average more than 15% though the recorded growth rate was less than 8%.

Similar Pakistan GDP also increased by 17% in 2004-05 but recorded growth rate as per IMF/WB is about 8%.

Infact even this year the Pakistan GDP Nominal(calculated from per capita income numbers or budget deficit) stand at 287Billion dollars or 11.5% increase over last year but recorded growth rate is 4.2%

Again calculating from budget dificit target,the GDP for next year is projected at 314Billion dollars or 9.4% increase but the projected growth rate is only 5.5% and we will most likely achieve around 4.8%.

 

[Malik Alashter]

We have ample resources to feed even an increased population. We don't lack any resources. The main problem with us is the foreign intervention in our internal affairs.

Well the main purpose of the increase in growth is to have better anomaly rate per person now you are 200+ million and your income is over 250 billion so if your population grow in same direction of your income growth then what good that going to give?.

 

[Nilgiri]

thanks

well i will post the data later,but between 2002-2007,Indian GDP numbers increased by average more than 15% though the recorded growth rate was less than 8%.

Similar Pakistan GDP also increased by 17% in 2004-05 but recorded growth rate as per IMF/WB is about 8%.

Infact even this year the Pakistan GDP Nominal(calculated from per capita income numbers or budget deficit) stand at 287Billion dollars or 11.5% increase over last year but recorded growth rate is 4.2%

Again calculating from budget dificit target,the GDP for next year is projected at 314Billion dollars or 9.4% increase but the projected growth rate is only 5.5% and we will most likely achieve around 4.8%.

Yup both countries have suffered from relatively high inflation at various times hence the discrepancies....especially in the highest growth years you are quoting. The exact metrics from your source may be different from the one that the IMF has compiled and "standardized". I tend to go with such groups like IMF for cross-country comparisons because of this relative standardisation.

Currency depreciation w.r.t USD has however helped to contain the nominal growth (when in USD) somewhat closer to the real figure than it would have been otherwise. After all it is an interesting sort of chemical equilibrium equation when we talk about inflation and depreciation....a change in one has an effect on the other to try keep things "balanced" and as equal as possible. Another topic of conversation though, though the theme is a recurring one in economics.

 

[45'22']

Wait, how old are you because you never understood his sarcasm?

He has made such predictions earlier....it wasn't sarcasm

 

[Nilgiri]

Well the main purpose of the increase in growth is to have better anomaly rate per person now you are 200+ million and your income is over 250 billion so if your population grow in same direction of your income growth then what good that going to give?.

Pakistan economic growth rate, though not great, is much higher than its population growth rate.

But Pakistan must work hard to make that difference as much as possible to get the maximum benefits to its people over time.

 

[HRK]

Thanks for the reply but nobody has answered my question which is:-

(i) The official figures we get about Pakistan's GDP is this calculated per the official records therefore only showing the tiny part of the economy?

(ii) Or do these figures show the entire economy?


So the records just show top part of the iceberg with rest hidden?

(i) The official figures we get about Pakistan's GDP is this calculated per the official records therefore only showing the tiny part of the economy?

This is the problem which almost every developing country is facing not just Pakistan ... the official GDP or unofficial GDP or black economy .... people could have trillions but they are of no use till they don't get registered as TAX payers & pay their Taxes

(ii) Or do these figures show the entire economy?

This figures does not show every economic activity but only the documented economy which is by any mean not more then 40-45% (even with lax estimates) of the total economic size of Pakistan

 

[Khanivore]

He has made such predictions earlier....it wasn't sarcasm

You're being delusional. Snap out of it.

 

[mpk1988]

We have ample resources to feed even an increased population. We don't lack any resources. The main problem with us is the foreign intervention in our internal affairs.

This is a foolish statement my friend. Look at the electricity shortages now. Also, the fresh water basin that feeds you water is one of the most stressed in the world (as it is for us). I'm not even going to start about fossil fuels and food (especially with increasing climate change).

Also, an important thing to note is that with the growth of Pakistan, the resource consumption per person will also increase. So..

The focus should be on smart, sustainable and eco-friendly development. Pakistan is easily around 300 million now. If the Population explosion is not curtailed now, the effects of a stable democracy will not be felt and you will have lost decades like we had. Just a small piece of advise.

 

[Great Sachin]

Report for Selected Countries and Subjects

Dont calculate on PPP....that way India is already 7.3 trillion economy

 

[zip]

@Horus I refuse to accept these charts prepared by people sat in new York or London. I would love somebody to explain to me few things. I am not a economist but I don't need to be psychologist to know when somebody is happy and when they are sad.

My point. Raft of reports show that there is less of extreme "bones poverty" in Pakistan then India. I was in Pakistan recently and there are cars, shops are full. House prices are ridicalous there is fast food joints on every corner. Bottom line there seems to be lots of cash floating around. A friend told me Karachi keeps getting illegal economic migrants from all over including India and Bangladesh.

Now we already know Pakistan has one of the lowest registered tax payers in the world. There is no doubt about this. Everybody knows that Pakistan is world leader in non paying tax payers. Now this means that minimal amount of the economy is recored because if it was then it would be taxed. So I ask this simple question. If people don't pay tax and it therefore is not recorded how the hell do the figures drawn by suits sitting in New York make any sense?

Let us take the case of Balochistan or FATA. I bet there are less than dozen tax payers in this huge tract of the country. However we know although these areas are poor but evidently most people there are better fed than the extreme poor of India.

So can somebody please tell me about these figures. Are these based on the fraudulent records kept by our federal government according to which only 100,000 Pakistan's are liable for tax or do they honestly reflect the reality on the ground?

Because I don't think what I read matches what I see and observe.

GDP calculation is very difficult in our countries . ..Internal consumption being a big factor will be difficult to calculate if whole system likes to evade tax ..though a firm produced some goods and it was consumed by the system but you won't be having any records of it ..So its not added to GDP ..Self employed people are too many to neglect rarely give account of their value added service ..I never saw any concrete steps taken to calculate GDP correctly ..Its just an indication of proper economic activity of a country and not a indicator of wealth of the people

 

[NIA]

That's impossible...

Arey kya bhai aap bhi na.... Viper janab jo bolte hai wo ho jate hai...just chill