Pakistan’s economy to surpass $2 trillion by 2050

[Sam.]

Dont calculate on PPP....that way India is already 7.3 trillion economy

wrong 7.997 Trillion

7.376 was 2014 figure

 

[k_arura]

I hope we don't have a war.....it will impact d economy ....both of India and Pakistan....
If we want to improve our social condition then war isn't an option

The idea is to keep Pakistan unstable by always keeping them preoccupied in "trying" to "root out" () extremism.

Do not EVER resolve Kashmir (least of all according to their desires. I am afraid they may just come begging on their knees to resolve it per India's wishes at which point India needs to come up with an excuse like "hey we are busy ....") as it will keep them fixated at a national level also!!!

 

[egodoc222]

I think it's the mindset of people...in my opnion military should only be concerned of national security...but your people look upto military for each and every issue....more importantly foreign policy...which inturn makes for economic cooperation...I think your people give too much importance to your military....and your military chief are too vocal and meddle with civilian government...and alter the balance of the government!!
Until democracy in Pakistan is stabilized I dont think the future of your economy would be any different from now!!
Your thoughts?

 

[RealNapster]

Oh fools can never act sane or smart!!! High on fake patriotism and hiding insecurities!!!! Here's the link, enjoy. And if you cared to google, there are MANY links. I've always used Moody's, the CIA or the Bloomberg as the main ones, never wrong!!! They all have their assessments so give them 5-10% standard deviation. As you notice, they are now around the 26th country from the top, the following shows 27th, which is fine too. From here down to 15-13 would result in a 2 trillion economy. You can do your own research and write a thesis if you disagree. Let's publish it. Any personal bullshiit will be resulted in personal attacks from my side and mods will be invited

Now, I usually tell my dog this: "go butcher it"

The World Factbook

GDP (purchasing power parity):
$882.3 billion (2014 est.)
$847.2 billion (2013 est.)
$817 billion (2012 est.)
note: data are in 2014 US dollars
country comparison to the world: 27
GDP (official exchange rate):
$250.1 billion (2014 est.)
GDP - real growth rate:
4.1% (2014 est.)
3.7% (2013 est.)
3.8% (2012 est.)

@Viper0011.
After watching PTV NEWS and Your Posts i really feel that in Pakistan ""sab acha hay"" ..
BTw i am here to read your posts only. Love your work and that unique style you have ( debating instead of derailing ) which is not much common on PDF now-a-days.. keep it up

 

[Indus Pakistan]

GDP calculation is very difficult in our countries . ..Internal consumption being a big factor will be difficult to calculate if whole system likes to evade tax ..though a firm produced some goods and it was consumed by the system but you won't be having any records of it ..So its not added to GDP ..Self employed people are too many to neglect rarely give account of their value added service ..I never saw any concrete steps taken to calculate GDP correctly ..Its just an indication of proper economic activity of a country and not a indicator of wealth of the people

I know documenting our economies is difficult. Also I know that official records only show small portion of the real economic activity going on the country. It is like the "iceberg effect". You only get to see the top of it. However in Pakistan's case everybody acknowledges that the scale of black economy is on whole differant level even by third world standards. Here is the shocking figures for tax payers.

Pak- - 0.6%
India - 4.7%

Less than 1 percent of Pakistanis pay tax – Survey | Aboard The Democracy Train
More people on airplanes right now than taxpayers in Pakistan - The Express Tribune

What I am trying to ask is how can we take GDP figures given by people in New York or London. I mean do they dream up the figures? They must rely on Pakistan government and foremost the tax people because it is their business to audit the economy and tax it accordingly.

If they are failing spectactuarly then the GDP figures also must be out of tune spectactuarly. What brough this up was the figures I read for Pakistan do not fit with what I observe in Pakistan. Whilst that can be said about any third world country but in Pakistan as the tax figures show we have eight times less registered than India. Or in other words if we managed to get taxpayers in the loop anywehere like India has done ( say 4% ) would that mean our figures for GDP be adjusted?

Does thios not mean our real economy is far larger - like the iceberg example I gave?

@Viper0011 You comments welcome?

 

[farhan_9909]

1

wrong 7.997 Trillion

Post the Pakistani numbers from the same source

 

[HRK]

1


Post the Pakistani numbers from the same source

From World Bank site .... (Last Updated: 01-Jul-2015)

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP_PPP.pdf

Pakistan at 24th position with $ 896 billion

 

[farhan_9909]

From World Bank site .... (Last Updated: 01-Jul-2015)

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP_PPP.pdf

Pakistan at 24th position with $ 896 billion

No,his source is more latest and most likey quoting 2015 GDP PPP.

The WB report quotes 2014 figures even for India.

Pakistan was suppose to reach 1 Trillion GDP PPP mark in 2016

 

[Sam.]

1


Post the Pakistani numbers from the same source

here you go

GDP PPP - 928 billion

 

[Nilgiri]

Or in other words if we managed to get taxpayers in the loop anywehere like India has done ( say 4% ) would that mean our figures for GDP be adjusted?

It would be adjusted somewhat, but it will not be a huge magnitude difference since a lot of the economic production/activity of the tax dodgers/unregistered does manifest into the GDP calculations by way of excise taxes, regular consumption/spending and associate multiplier effect plus local investment...all of which appear at some point in the GDP calculation. Plus an international standardized organisation like the IMF or WB would have a coefficient they multiply by to account for some of the most tangible tiers of the "hidden" economy...and use these somewhat consistently across countries of similar overall economic status.

The only amount that would not appear is whatever is being sent out of Pakistan to accrue in a slush fund (black money) etc...however if some of this is rerouted and laundered back into Pakistan...it again depends on the specific instruments at play involved. I have talked about this topic in the Bangladesh forum too. It will need a major overhaul and audit of the whole Pakistani finance and banking sector plus a stringent clampdown on the slush accounts in major safehavens. I see only India being serious about this in the whole region. There are some wild estimates about the size of the black economy which is different from the informal economy (which also has estimates)...though there is some overlap of course. We will just have to be content in assuming the relative proportions of these parts are similar across the subcontinent....we have to establish the base comparison somewhere afterall...and the only solid figures we can get is from what is visible to the metric norms...and we will have to wait for the countries to bring more salaried jobs to their workforces, bring more into the income tax fold and shrink the economic space of both informal and black economy but ESPECIALLY the latter....because it has such a negative multiplier effect on the economy as a whole.

In a way the revised calculations of Indian economy do this to some extent, maybe Pakistan can look at revising its calculations as well to accomodate for the changing make up of its economy by revising the base year and carefully accounting for economic area at the threshold of formal/informal.

On a related note, about 18% of Indian workforce is officially salaried (Indicators | Data hence liable for tax registration. Hence the 4.7% amounts to about 26% of this specific class....however I would have to look into it further to see how much of the 18% fall out of the minimum tax bracket and hence are legally not paying tax (but still registered unless the 4.7% is just the raw registration figure instead of the broad income tax paying figure)....this would improve the 26% figure substantially looking at the tax structure and general skewed pyramid income structure of India....especially with the continued tax reforms of the current administration.

Some of these figures are out of date so if anyone has a fresh recent data source...it would be welcome.

As you can see the world Bank does not have numbers for Pakistan on official salaried percentage....so if anyone has a figure for that it would be much obliged.

But whatever it is, Pakistan does need to have some serious overhaul of its tax collection %

 

[kadamba-warrior]

But he runs a company that provides employment to Indians.

He probably needs to read Economics for dummies

Not just that! He even claimed to have interviewed and employed an IIT graduate, who he says, is as sharp as a whip!

But then he also repeatedly claimed in every other thread that the US Government itself invested hundreds of Billions in Indian IT industry without which Indian IT industry couldn't have grown.

 

[Nilgiri]

Not just that! He even claimed to have interviewed and employed an IIT graduate, who he says, is as sharp as a whip!

But then he also repeatedly claimed in every other thread that the US Government itself invested hundreds of Billions in Indian IT industry without which Indian IT industry couldn't have grown.

He falls over himself so much, its hillarious.

His theme music:

 

[Nick81]

nobody takes ppp ........but nominal which is at 250 bn in 2014

It depends on the context. PPP figures are more reliable for measuring living standard of people within the domestic economy. Nominal figures are more relevant to understand that that country can buy abroad. In the case of Pakistanis, since all they are interested in is how to get the guns, tanks, missiles and planes needed to beat India, nominal GDP matters much more.

Kashmir is to secure water and Afghanistan is to prevent another 1971. School yourself.

How would running away and hiding in the "strategic depth" of Afghanistan prevent a repeat of '71? Please school me...

 

[Viper0011.]

@Viper0011.
After watching PTV NEWS and Your Posts i really feel that in Pakistan ""sab acha hay"" ..
BTw i am here to read your posts only. Love your work and that unique style you have ( debating instead of derailing ) which is not much common on PDF now-a-days.. keep it up

Thank you for the kind words. I appreciate it. I just write facts, don't need nothing from anyone. But thank you, makes me realize there is some value to the amount of time I spend on here, that I, myself find it hard to justify at times.

Back to you post, I don't think ""sab acha hay"" is applicable to Pakistan just yet. There is a lot of work needing done. BUT, the most crucial party is done, the foundation is being built. The only core issue is to keep the political adventurism away from the system (like the Mullah, IK and all). I

f after the current government leaves, they are all found by law to be criminals, let the SC send them to jail for the next 20 years. I am ALL for justice. But, in a society which is finally learning to get away from intolerance, terrorists, and all, please for God's sake, don't put violent politics, sit-ins, Parliament attacks and all, into Pakistani youth's head. That's what they'll end up doing all their lives. And just like bad parenting, the fault in a violent next generation's case will be today's leaders!!

But the foundation for growth has been put in, the investments are coming in, some are in a holding pattern to make sure that the government does good on her power outage issue that they'll either reduce it 100% or will allow the businesses to have 100% electricity. So in the next 3 years, if the electric issue is reduced by 80%, you'll see dollar-rain in my opinion. If the current government remains till their last day, you'll see the same American companies who built today's India, helping to build tomorrow's Pakistan too.

BUT....the biggest part for higher investments lies on Pakistanis....Pakistanis need to project a modern, tolerant, anti-terror and anti-religious extremism Pakistan and a Pakistani nation. You can't be throwing every other government down the toilet because your guy didn't win.

That's utter stupidity. If people didn't let a child grow into a wise old man, that child would eventually live his life as a child and die one day. Similarly, the system is fresh and new, if you don't let it grow naturally, the system will eventually die off of these violent sit-ins and other methods, which aren't needed right now.

Specially not when the country's making progress with both civil and military on ONE page. This by itself requires respect from the entire nation. At this time, the nation needs to put hard work into it like how Indians, Turks, Malaysians did it, so that the country as a whole grows. Learn to respect the winner (even bad or criminal, if more people elected them) and let the country grow. Let the law decide who's wrong, criminal or free. Not the people. No country, no identify.....aka going into slavery!!! Just remember that next time anyone writes negative about their own country. Creating a positive perception is the biggest battle, and Pakistan needs to win it to grow!

 

[Viper0011.]

I know documenting our economies is difficult. Also I know that official records only show small portion of the real economic activity going on the country. It is like the "iceberg effect". You only get to see the top of it. However in Pakistan's case everybody acknowledges that the scale of black economy is on whole differant level even by third world standards. Here is the shocking figures for tax payers.

Pak- - 0.6%
India - 4.7%

Less than 1 percent of Pakistanis pay tax – Survey | Aboard The Democracy Train
More people on airplanes right now than taxpayers in Pakistan - The Express Tribune

What I am trying to ask is how can we take GDP figures given by people in New York or London. I mean do they dream up the figures? They must rely on Pakistan government and foremost the tax people because it is their business to audit the economy and tax it accordingly.

If they are failing spectactuarly then the GDP figures also must be out of tune spectactuarly. What brough this up was the figures I read for Pakistan do not fit with what I observe in Pakistan. Whilst that can be said about any third world country but in Pakistan as the tax figures show we have eight times less registered than India. Or in other words if we managed to get taxpayers in the loop anywehere like India has done ( say 4% ) would that mean our figures for GDP be adjusted?

Does thios not mean our real economy is far larger - like the iceberg example I gave?

@Viper0011 You comments welcome?

Thank you for considering my humble opinion for this post. I appreciate it. You actually have hit all the important nails on the head already in the post above.

There is a lot more to the Pakistani economy than people know. Some institutions in the US have learned that. For example, there were a couple of articles published in the US, that had a title like "the real hidden economy" and stuff like the hidden reason behind Pakistan's economy, etc. That talks about Taxes. Many large, medium and majority small businesses never paid taxes, or classified their businesses as small (when they were large with over 1000 employees). These classifications have been going on for many decades, majority since the 70's.

In big cities, due to corruption, and till recently, the Sales tax, the Income tax and all revenue collectors know these people who have hidden their core business for decades. The papers remain the same since the 70 (which means its legal in court's until further investigation is done), and minimal tax is collected and with revenue officers getting bribes. So that was the way of doing business. The registered offices are real but fraudulent, meaning a Textile owner, had a small Chicken farm, but since the 70's, the Chicken farm has been the basis of all tax collections, etc, the head office is there too. The Textile unit isn't even listed in many cases. In majority of the cases, the local revenue officers know it but they protected it to make their bribes.

So these shadow businesses, if and when came under heavy taxation, will enable Pakistan to go well over 25 trillion rupees in Taxation. When this would happen? only God knows.

But I know the goal is to push for it as its in the country's best interest. Let's take a basic example, if every Pakistani (200 million people) paid 2000 rupees in federal taxes per year, that would generate over 4-5 trillion rupees in taxes. That's about $ 50-60 billion that Pakistan didn't have before. I think Pakistan's debt was around $ 70 billion so you could theoretically pay it off in a couple of years (if the money wasn't going to be spent on other projects).

The West now knows this. They are calculating much higher numbers than I am. If 1% tax paying labor produces a $ 900 billion dollar (PPP) GDP.....what about the hidden economy? So if you bring all that to closure, Pakistan goes up by $ 250 billion worth of actual, physical economy. So your PPP goes to over 1.2 trillion and your nominal GDP goes from $ 250 billion, (now add another $ 250 billion hidden GDP). So Pakistan's economy is close to .5 trillion actual. But even this number's incorrect.

Because this would make what? 2% tax payer base? What about millions of shops in places like Northern Pakistan around mountainous regions?? what about hidden industries elsewhere and actual size reported in taxes?

The growing census among the Western institutes is that Pakistan's nominal GDP may be around what today gets reported as GDP in terms of PPP. Which I tend to agree with. So if you bring all this under taxation, you can then do more trade internationally, with more muscle and size. Plus, once the infrastructure gets built out, more investment is coming, the US and the West, will do what they did to India, there will be high tech labor work given to Pakistan. SS is already working on it in Punjab where he wants 1 million young men to be able to get hi-tech, mobile software development jobs in the next 5 years by competing with India. Plus Pakistan's manufacturing work will go high up as the CPEC gets built. So a 1.5 to 2 trillion dollar economy isn't a pipe dream, the steps being taken today will start to show benefits by 2018. I believe if the tax net is expanded correctly, it is a matter of about 10 years and Pakistan will go to 1.5 trillion easy.