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Pakistan's Economy - News and Updates


Ok noonies Here is truth from World bank country director

- the 5% growth rate was largely consumption NOT based investment based which contributes to boom and bust cycles ..

- keeping the rupee artificially high hurt exports

watch and weep..
Whats the point every knows this..
Why do u think imports were high..
We printed artificial money (state bank lending)built roads on that (gdp growth)
Money and imported diapers(imports increase)..and let the next govt pick up fall out of the artificial moeny
 
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Pakistan’s debt, liabilities sour past the size of its economy
SAMAA | Samaa Money - Posted: Aug 29, 2020 | Last Updated: 8 hours ago

Pakistan’s debt, liabilities sour past the size of its economy

Pakistan’s outstanding debt and liabilities reached Rs44.6 trillion as of June 30, 2020 going past the size of its economy, according to the statistics the State Bank of Pakistan published on Thursday.

The total debt and liabilities increased by more than a tenth in the latest fiscal year and now stand at 107% of its GDP, which stands at Rs41.7 trillion, according to the central bank’s data.
This is much higher than the 60% limit as described under Pakistan Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act 2005 and it has been above this line since the time of PML-N government. In fiscal year 2018, the last year of the PML-N government, the total debt and liabilities were Rs29.8 trillion or 86.3% of the GDP, therefore, the present set-up has added another Rs14.8 trillion to the national debt since then.
This mountain of debt leaves Pakistan with no money to spend on its people. This is because more than 40% of its budget is spent on repaying the previous loan. Successive governments have failed to meet tax collection target, which results in lower revenue. On the other hand, they end up spending more than what’s allocated in the budget. Higher spending and lower revenue creates large budget deficit, which is then plugged through more borrowing and the cycle goes on.



Wait for new data once inflation adjustment happens the debt should drop back to 80%

Revenue side the main issues are
1. Primary deficit (federal deficit after two core spending defense & debt servicing)
2. State losses of PIA railways power gen
3. FBR performance

These three are key problems

Federal govt needs to tune down its spending outside of its judicirstion (defense & debt servcing) and focus on strutral refroms and let private sector & provincial govts be the engine of growth..either that or revere the 18th amendment you cant have it both ways..

Worse karachi spending is now done by federal govt too..

Federal govt should change all karachi spendi
To provincial loans
 
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Steps needed
1. FBR reforms and privitization to adress losesin govt entities
2. Giving up spending to to provinces
3. Public private patnership in PSDP
 
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Pakistani Mangos Surpass 2020 Export Target

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According to Pakistani domestic media, in spite of the numerous challenges associated with the unforeseen outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Pakistan has already succeeded in meeting its mango export target of 80,000 tons set for 2020. The country has so far exported approximately 125,000 tons of mangos with a total value of $72 million this year. Over the coming one and a half months, another 25,000 tons are expected to be exported.

In 2019, Pakistan produced 1.8 million tons of mangos, of which 130,000 tons were exported. Most of these exports were destined for countries in Central and Western Asia, with Afghanistan, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Oman as the primary importers. In 2020, the production of Pakistani mangos is forecast to reach 1.30 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 28%. This reduced crop along with the COVID-19 crisis has made this year one of the toughest in recent history for Pakistani mango exporters.

Although Pakistani mangos were granted access to China in 2003, they are only rarely seen on the market; according to data from China Customs, Pakistan only exported 20 tons of fresh mangos to China in 2019. Inconsistent quality and high cost are two major reasons for the failure of Pakistani mangos to secure a stronger presence on the Chinese market.

According to industry insiders, the varying quality is a direct result of limitations in planting technologies and post-harvest practices, suboptimal sorting and packing technologies, inefficient logistics and premature picking. The lack of facilities for the mandatory fumigation treatment alone results in a large proportion of Pakistani mangos missing the opportunity to enter China every year.

High transportation costs pose no less of a challenge. Exports of Pakistani mangos to China can be conducted by either air or sea. The cost of air freight has soared by two to three times this year owing to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Pakistani mangos sent to China via this year’s first air shipment were priced at 37 Chinese yuan ($5.45) per kilogram in Yunnan province, whereas local mangos were being sold for only 10–20 yuan ($1.47–2.95) per kilogram. If shipped by sea, it takes 25 days for Pakistani mangos to reach China. However, the shelf life of the fruit is only approximately 20 days at room temperature. Pakistani mango exporters previously considered using controlled atmosphere containers, which have been extensively utilized for Chilean cherry shipments to China, but were somewhat daunted by the high cost ($7,000 per controlled atmosphere container versus $1,500 per conventional container).

Considering the fact that Pakistan shares a border with China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, it is more feasible in terms of both cost and transit time for Pakistani exporters to first ship mangos to Xinjiang via land prior to redistribution.

Mangos are Pakistan’s second-largest fruit export, trailing only citrus fruits. The majority of Pakistan’s mango production takes place in four provinces, namely, Punjab (54,000 hectares), Sindh (46,000 hectares), Balochistan (11,000 hectares) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (2,000 hectares). Pakistan also boasts a wide range of mango varieties that vary from one another in terms of appearance, color, taste and picking time. These varieties generally fall into two categories: one for fresh consumption, and the other for juice. The two main exported mango varieties are Sindhri and Chaunsa, whose harvest seasons last from May to September.
 
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High transportation costs pose no less of a challenge. Exports of Pakistani mangos to China can be conducted by either air or sea. The cost of air freight has soared by two to three times this year owing to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Pakistani mangos sent to China via this year’s first air shipment were priced at 37 Chinese yuan ($5.45) per kilogram in Yunnan province, whereas local mangos were being sold for only 10–20 yuan ($1.47–2.95) per kilogram.

Why are mangoes not exported via CPEC.
 
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احسن اقبال اور اسحاق ڈار کی غلط بیانی ن لیگ کے اپنے ہی گلے پڑگئی
By ویب ڈیسک جمعرات 08 اکتوبر 2020 1
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حقائق کو توڑ مروڑ کر پیش کرنا لیگی رہنماؤں کو مہنگا پڑ گیا، صحافی نے ٹویٹ کیا تو بلی تھیلے سے باہر آ گئی

چند روز قبل لیگی رہنماؤں کی جانب سے ایک گراف سوشل میڈیا پر پوسٹ کیا گیا جس میں ان کی جانب سے اس گراف کو اس طرح پیش کیا جا رہا ہے کہ مسلم لیگ ن کے دور اقتدار میں پاکستان کے متوسط طبقے کی تعداد 8.6 فیصد سے بڑھ کر 20.06 تک جا پہنچی تھی جو کہ موجودہ حکومت کے دور مین گھٹ کر 7 فیصد پر آ گئی ہے۔

یہ گراف سابق وزیر خزانہ اسحاق ڈار کی جانب سے کچھ اس طرح پوسٹ کیا گیا کہ متوسط طبقہ (middle class) کسی بھی معیشت کی ریڑھ کی ہڈی سمجھا جاتا ہے۔ پاکستان کا متوسط طبقہ مسلم لیگ ن کے دور میں 8.6 فیصد سے 2018 تک 20.6 فیصد پر پہنچ گیا تھا۔ بدقسمتی سے عمران نیازی حکومت کی معاشی تباہی کی وجی سے یہ 2 سالوں میں کم ہو کر 7 فیصد پر آ گیا ہے۔

جبکہ سابق وزیر داخلہ احسن اقبال نے اس کے متعلق لکھا کہ مسلم لیگ ن کے دور اقتدار میں متوسط طبقے کی تعداد روز بہ روز بڑھ رہی تھی جس کا مطلب یہ ہے کہ تب لوگوں کی آمدن اور اخراجات میں مطابقت تھی ، جبکہ موجودہ حکومت کی غلط معاشی پالیسیوں کی وجہ سے یہ متوسط طبقہ لوئر مڈل کلاس میں تبدیل ہو گیا۔

دراصل یہ گراف پاکستان ٹوڈے نامی میگزین کی جانب سے شائع کیا گیا تھا جس میں انہوں نے 1999 سے لیکر 2019 تک کے پاکستانی متوسط طبقے کے اعدادو شمار پر مبنی ایک مفصل رپورٹ بنائی تھی۔
ٹوئٹر پر لیگی رہنماؤں کی جانب سے اس گراف کو پوسٹ کیے جانے پر سراہنے کا سلسلہ ابھی جاری ہی تھا کہ پاکستان ٹوڈے میگزین کے مینیجنگ ایڈیٹر فاروق ترمذی نے ٹوئٹ کیا جس میں انہوں نے لیگی رہنماؤں چالاکی کا پردہ چاک کر دیا اور حقیقت بیان کر دی۔
فاروق ترمذی نے اپنی ٹویٹ میں لکھا کہ احسن اقبال اور اسحاق ڈار نے ایک گراف دکھا کر جس چیز کا ذمہ دار عمران خان کو ٹھہرایا دراصل اس کی ذمہ دار ن لیگ ہے۔ انہوں نے لکھا کہ یہ گراف سیاق و سباق سے ہٹ کر پیش کیا جا رہا ہے اور جس متوسط طبقے کو اسحاق ڈار تباہی کے دہانے پر چھوڑ گئے تھے دراصل اس کو اوپر اٹھانے کے لیے موجودہ حکومت کوشش کر رہی ہے۔

فاروق ترمذی نے ایک اور ٹویٹ میں لکھا کہ اس رپورٹ میں جس ریسرچ اور طریقہ کار کا استعمال کیا گیا اس میں مزید بہتری کی گنجائش موجود ہے یہ جس طریقہ کار کے تحت رپورٹ بنائی گئی ہے وہ درست کے قریب ترین ہے مگر اس صورتحال کی وسعت کو سمجھنے کے لیے یہ بہتر رپورٹ ہے۔

 
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Govt, ITFC sign $386m agreement for import of oil, LNG

October 12, 2020


Pakistan and International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation have signed a financing agreement amounting to 386 million dollars for import of oil and LNG.

The facility will be utilized by Pakistan State Oil Company Limited, Pakistan Arab Refinery Limited and Pakistan LNG Limited.

During the signing ceremony, both the sides expressed the commitment to work closely with each other for socio economic development of the country.

Gunvor offers lowest bids for Nov LNG deliveries
Business
Our CorrespondentOctober 10, 2020

KARACHI: Pakistan has received lowest bids for two cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) of 140,000 meters each from multinational commodity trading company Gunvor Singapore, it was learnt on Friday.


Gunvor Singapore placed lowest bids at 14.2277 percent for 8-9 November and at 13.8377 percent for 18-19 November in response to an international tender last month by state-owned Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL), according to an official document seen by The News. Other companies bid for 8-9 November window were Trafiguara (14.3338 percent) and PetroChina International (15.3152 percent).

For the second window, DXT Trading Company bid at 14.4610 percent, Trafiguara PTE (14.3338 percent) and POSCO International (16.0444 percent). PLL had sought tenders from foreign suppliers to supply three cargoes of approximately 420,000 cubic metres of LNG for November.

PLL invited bids from international suppliers for supply of three LNG cargoes on delivered ex-ship basis at Port Qasim. Cargo of 140,000 cubic meters each is required to be delivered on November 8-9, November 15-16, and November 18-19.

PLL resumed spot buying of LNG after six-month pause in July as energy demand is ramping up with easing lockdown.

PLL were mandated by the government to carry out the business of the import, purifying, buying, storing, supplying, distributing, transporting, transmitting, processing, measuring, metering and selling of natural gas, LNG, re-gasified LNG, to meet the country’s gas requirements.

PLL procures LNG from international markets and enters into onward arrangements for supply of gas to the end user, thereby managing the whole supply chain of LNG from procurement to end user gas sale agreements.

Pakistan currently has two operational LNG terminals – Elengy Terminal and Gasport Pakistan Ltd. having a capacity of 600 million metric cubic feet per day each.

With Pakistan turning to be one of the fastest growing LNG markets since it first started importing in 2015 and imports rising to 8.4 million tons in 2019 from 6.8 million tons in 2018, analysts say there is an urgent need to speed up import capacity expansions, which have been planned to absorb incremental inflows.

The gap between demand and supply is expected to increase to 2.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in FY2023 and 4.8 bcfd by FY2028 without the imported gas.

“The possible gap can be bridged through enhancement in indigenous gas exploration & production through incentivizing this sector, import of interstate natural gas through development of cross-country gas pipelines and increased import of LNG,” Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) said in a report.

“The gas utility companies have added more than 0.5 million domestic, commercial and industrial consumers, in their respective systems, during fiscal year 2018-19.

 
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