Pakistan's Defence anxiety over India's rising Defence Budget

[ashok mourya]

From a Pakistani perspective :: First, the bad news. The Indian defence budget is set to hit a record high of $40bn. That compares with a basic and Pakistani military budget of roughly $7bn.

Moreover, a good chunk of the Indian military budget has been set aside for capital acquisitions, ostensibly to try and keep up with rapid Chinese military expansion – though the security establishment here believes many of the items on the Indian military wish list are there with an intention of increasing its war capabilities against Pakistan.

Now, to the somewhat better news. In percentage terms, the increase in the defence budget is lower than the current Indian fiscal year (April-March).

Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is below two per cent and dropped further this year. And the latest budget suggests, according to Indian defence analysts, that the Narendra Modi-led government has decided to move more slowly than expected in meeting the demands of the Indian security establishment.

There are two aspects here that are particularly worth bearing in mind, one for Pakistan, the other for India.

For Pakistan, the thought of the Indian military pulling out of sight in conventional terms can be an uncomfortable – possibly, unacceptable – one. However, not everything the hawks here perceive is necessarily true.

Consider that while the Indian defence budget is set to cross $40bn, the Chinese defence budget is roughly four times larger.

India also has to compete for control in the Indian Ocean, a formidably expensive proposition.

Moreover, the Indian military’s modernisation project has come after years of under-investment – so the punch it can pack may not be as big as the $40bn figure suggests.

The Pakistani security establishment is right to closely track Indian defence spending because India remains, in terms of its military capabilities, the principal threat to Pakistan’s security. But a rational, logical perspective is really what is needed rather than the wild conjecturing in some hawkish quarters.

For India, there should be a realisation that goes beyond the plain numbers: the further away it pulls from Pakistan in the conventional field, the more it will create pressure on Pakistan to perhaps lower the nuclear threshold to stave off the threat of conflict.

Simply, much as some in India would like to separate the question of competing with China from the need to manage risk with Pakistan, the overall Indian military capability will send a message in both directions. Stability will only come from advancing dialogue with Pakistan.

 

[Ind4Ever]

From a Pakistani perspective :: First, the bad news. The Indian defence budget is set to hit a record high of $40bn. That compares with a basic and Pakistani military budget of roughly $7bn.

Moreover, a good chunk of the Indian military budget has been set aside for capital acquisitions, ostensibly to try and keep up with rapid Chinese military expansion – though the security establishment here believes many of the items on the Indian military wish list are there with an intention of increasing its war capabilities against Pakistan.

Now, to the somewhat better news. In percentage terms, the increase in the defence budget is lower than the current Indian fiscal year (April-March).

Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is below two per cent and dropped further this year. And the latest budget suggests, according to Indian defence analysts, that the Narendra Modi-led government has decided to move more slowly than expected in meeting the demands of the Indian security establishment.

There are two aspects here that are particularly worth bearing in mind, one for Pakistan, the other for India.

For Pakistan, the thought of the Indian military pulling out of sight in conventional terms can be an uncomfortable – possibly, unacceptable – one. However, not everything the hawks here perceive is necessarily true.

Consider that while the Indian defence budget is set to cross $40bn, the Chinese defence budget is roughly four times larger.

India also has to compete for control in the Indian Ocean, a formidably expensive proposition.

Moreover, the Indian military’s modernisation project has come after years of under-investment – so the punch it can pack may not be as big as the $40bn figure suggests.

The Pakistani security establishment is right to closely track Indian defence spending because India remains, in terms of its military capabilities, the principal threat to Pakistan’s security. But a rational, logical perspective is really what is needed rather than the wild conjecturing in some hawkish quarters.

For India, there should be a realisation that goes beyond the plain numbers: the further away it pulls from Pakistan in the conventional field, the more it will create pressure on Pakistan to perhaps lower the nuclear threshold to stave off the threat of conflict.

Simply, much as some in India would like to separate the question of competing with China from the need to manage risk with Pakistan, the overall Indian military capability will send a message in both directions. Stability will only come from advancing dialogue with Pakistan.

Amazing article . India will always keep increase our strength specifically for Pakistan . Right now strong leadership of India won't worry about declaring war against pakistan in case of another major terror attacks . Just to prove a point to their polical parties on "How lead this age old civilisation . China is our real threat but that theat is very low when whole European and Americans proposed for relationship between each other and do their business . It well might turn into world war which no one wants to see that day . So Chinese and Indians won't go to war . Pakistan is our real threat we must understand .Pakistan army is also growing with new ripoff weapons from China . So pakistan will do the same mistake by underestimating it's strength . With added new weapons systems from West and Russia plans must be for create a beast infornt of them so message is clear. It might let pakistan to accept the capability and soften their stand against India . It's gonna be deadly for both .

So I totally agree with this writer

 

[MilSpec]

There is absolutely no need for Pakistan to be anxious on Indian Defence Budget, and highly doubt there is any. Pakistani military is formidable in it's own right and it spends and allocates enough to maintain credible deterrence in conventional and non-conventional spheres. India's budget has to do a lot with it's size and area it needs to defend and monitor.

 

[Abingdonboy]

There is absolutely no need for Pakistan to be anxious on Indian Defence Budget, and highly doubt there is any. Pakistani military is formidable in it's own right and it spends and allocates enough to maintain credible deterrence in conventional and non-conventional spheres. India's budget has to do a lot with it's size and area it needs to defend and monitor.

This has got to be media hype because the fact is this years budget was increased by less (in percentage terms) then budgets in the past few years have been year to year.

 

[Arya Desa]

Don't worry Pakistan, Obama will send more aid to counterbalance India

 

[xyxmt]

you could also write, "India's anxiety over Pakistani defense budget" and it will be equally true. Pakistan's defense budget is 7 billion USD and India increased her budget by $40 billion. Is that a joke if it is its pretty funny.

 

[SQ8]

The point the article makes is rather simplistic in nature. At no point was Pakistan EVER able to compete with the Indian Military in size or capabilities. It's goal always has been survival till international rescue(read ceasefire) arrives. With the Nuclear weapons it has somewhat been able to inch closer to that ideal situation but has ended up overstepping those boundaries to the snakes it let(s) breed away on its soil.
Still, the nuclear question leaves India in a rather pretty pickle vis-a-vis its capabilities and to what extent are they actually effective and to what extent they are just overkill. They would work in the mythical two-front war that the GoI likes to sell to its population but when it comes to just a conflict with Pakistan they know that they will never have the time to fully leverage those capabilities for a lasting effect before the nuclear Damocles comes into play. But then again, that is a dual edged sword for both nations. Pity none of them realize just how much each has to gain from the other and instead are inflexible to the hilt.

 

[Mike_Brando]

The point the article makes is rather simplistic in nature. At no point was Pakistan EVER able to compete with the Indian Military in size or capabilities. It's goal always has been survival till international rescue(read ceasefire) arrives. With the Nuclear weapons it has somewhat been able to inch closer to that ideal situation but has ended up overstepping those boundaries to the snakes it let(s) breed away on its soil.
Still, the nuclear question leaves India in a rather pretty pickle vis-a-vis its capabilities and to what extent are they actually effective and to what extent they are just overkill. They would work in the mythical two-front war that the GoI likes to sell to its population but when it comes to just a conflict with Pakistan they know that they will never have the time to fully leverage those capabilities for a lasting effect before the nuclear Damocles comes into play. But then again, that is a dual edged sword for both nations. Pity none of them realize just how much each has to gain from the other and instead are inflexible to the hilt.

An excellent post,sir.Both of our countries have a lot of things to loose in case of a nuclear war and hence it is absolutely necessary that India should refrain itself again crossing the nuclear threshold limit of Pakistan in case of a full fledged conventional war in future.Plus India as of now is not in a position to confront Pakistan in a full fledged conventional war let alone a nuclear war.At this moment the GoI is totally committed in reviving the economic growth of this country and hence they will never take the risk of getting involved in a full blown war with a nuclear armed neighbor.

 

[MilSpec]

. They would work in the mythical two-front war that the GoI likes to sell to its population but when it comes to just a conflict with Pakistan they know that they will never have the time to fully leverage those capabilities for a lasting effect before the nuclear Damocles comes into play.

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best

Pity none of them realize just how much each has to gain from the other and instead are inflexible to the hilt.

Neither will realize this our lifetimes.

 

[lasttry]

With $50 billion Indian defence budget, India is still a looser against Pakistanis...lol

So intelligent!

 

[The_Sidewinder]

@Oscar

Religious differences will always be key reason for hatred between both countries. When there is lack of trust, nothing can be repaired.

 

[SQ8]

@Oscar

Religious differences will always be key reason for hatred between both countries. When there is lack of trust, nothing can be repaired.

Economic was the actual reason, but religion has become the primary one. One must remember that while hatred has been around in earlier adversaries as well.. few of them sat in the same room with shotgun pointed at each other.

 

[OrionHunter]

For India, there should be a realisation that goes beyond the plain numbers: the further away it pulls from Pakistan in the conventional field, the more it will create pressure on Pakistan to perhaps lower the nuclear threshold to stave off the threat of conflict.

Pakistani nuclear blackmail won't work anymore. India has seen through the game.

In short, nukes will never ever be used in a conflict however low the threshold becomes.

 

[The_Sidewinder]

Economic was the actual reason, but religion has become the primary one. One must remember that while hatred has been around in earlier adversaries as well.. few of them sat in the same room with shotgun pointed at each other.

Alash! I hope things were different.

 

[acid rain]

With $50 billion Indian defence budget, India is still a looser against Pakistanis...lol

In what way?