Terrorism & Insurgency
Uptick in jihadi attacks in Pakistan indicates militant efforts to reorganise and increase frequency of mass casualty attacks
Alison Evans, London - IHS Jane's Intelligence Weekly
22 February 2017
A Pakistani police officer stands guard outside the Barri Imam shrine in Islamabad as security is increased following a suicide attack at another Sufi shrine in interior Sindh on 16 February. Source: PA
Key Points
- Attacks in Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa over the last week suggest that militant groups targeting Pakistan are seeking to reorganise and co-ordinate attacks.
- Security forces, religious minorities (Shias, Christians, and Hindus), the judiciary, civil society activists, and Sufis are most at risk of primarily suicide IED attacks over the next six months.
- While it is unlikely that the increased frequency of attacks will emerge as a sustained trend, mutual mistrust with Afghanistan - where Pakistani militant groups are mainly based - is likely to impede a comprehensive improvement in Pakistan's security environment.
EVENT
Four separate attacks by jihadi militants from 14-16 February in Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa killed more than 100 people combined and wounded hundreds of others.
Four separate attacks by jihadi militants from 13-16 February in Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa killed more than 100 people combined and wounded hundreds of others.
The incidents involved the targeting of security forces, public protests, the judiciary, and Sufi shrines using suicide bombers exclusively - a largely established attack pattern and tactic for Pakistani militants. However, the concentration of the incidents over a short amount of time has in particular brought to the fore questions about the sustainability of Pakistan's downward trend in militancy.
Since counter-insurgency operations were launched in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in 2014, data gathered by IHS Markit confirms a declining frequency of attacks across the country since then, with overall attacks falling by 42% in 2015 and 38% in 2016.
The military response to the attacks last week has been characteristically robust. More than 100 suspected militants were killed in counter-insurgency operations over the weekend, according to the military's public relations wing, the Inter Services Public Relations. Moreover, the military also announced the indefinite closure of the border with Afghanistan, following further public criticism of the Afghan government's perceived reluctance to crack down on Pakistani militants on the Afghan side of the border.