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Pakistani Nuclear Safety: Queries

Unfortunately S-2, my earlier enthusiasm about Prof. Gregory entertaining us with an extensive reply might've been misplaced. The professor would understandably be busy addressing more important matters and organizations, given how widely his article was reported.

Should he choose to comment on the issues raised here, he would be most welcome to do so and we would treat it as a privilege. However it should be at his discretion. You can feel free to comment in length yourself S-2, we could carry the discussion from there.
 
Kas excellent piece of writing, i am already impressed by you and now i am even more overwhelmed by the quality. Thanks.

i have seen this letter of yours lately or i could have added another point for a question on the letter, anywaz, it is a small point and would be available on our other page. Get there.
 
The problem with the US/West and the attached media thereof is that they have little or no access (other than what SPD chooses to tell them) in terms of a humint spy network in the folds of our nuke set-up. This is a cause of serious concern for most of these boys! Therefore, they discredit the program by various means so that the concerned automatically go defensive or start bending over to funny demands to support more information for these vested powers. Hence the chain of discrediting articles, commentaries etc in the global media.

Now that the threat of Taliban have subsided; US is harping a different tune regarding the high quality of the secure net around our strat assets!

My suggestion is that instead of trying to pacify every self-proclaimed exper out there, let us keep our national perspective straight, our secrets intact and we will come out unscathed from any eventuality. Pakistan's nuke program from its inception to its current state is one of the most secure run program. It will remain that way if we just read the theories of all these experts, smile and just turn the page to see what is next.
 
Well, being entirely indifferent also has its disadvantages. People tend to assume what is being said is true. In this regard I feel the ISPR and the Pakistani military institutions as a whole are evolving their methods. General Abbas was succinct and conclusive, no nuclear facilities were attacked. He didn't go into a long deliberation like me, it would've been dangerous had he done so. But the ISPR's pointed refutations were certainly better than nothing, not that it would matter to those who want to believe otherwise, like our good friends in India. Also, in many cases I didn't question the possibility of these claims, only their potentially misleading implications, proportions and context. The author does hold a significant amount of familiarity and expertise in the matter, enough to secure partial agreement from a Pakistani officer or two, to my knowledge. Pakistan's nuclear program is likely to be the subject of continued debate in the future, we best keep track of it and note interesting developments here on this thread when they're in need of discussion.
 
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Well, being entirely indifferent also has its disadvantages. People tend to assume what is being said is true. In this regard I feel the ISPR and the Pakistani military institutions as a whole are evolving their methods. General Abbas was succinct and conclusive, no nuclear facilities were attacked. He didn't go into a long deliberation like me, it would've been dangerous had he done so. But the ISPR's pointed refutations were certainly better than nothing, not that it would matter to those who want to believe otherwise, like our good friends in India. Also, in many cases I didn't question the possibility of these claims, only their potentially misleading implications, proportions and context. The author does hold a significant amount of familiarity and expertise in the matter, enough to secure partial agreement from a Pakistani officer or two, to my knowledge. Pakistan's nuclear program is likely to be the subject of continued debate in the future, we best keep track of it and note interesting developments here on this thread when they're in need of discussion.

The good things about such articles is that they have a very short attention span just like the limited memory-span of the people who are actually influenced by them. What should be of concern is to pacify the Government-Government level contacts (like what SPD does) and leave the rest pretty much to the throbbing imagination of these 'expert' authors!

Such articles are like Hollywood movies; maybe 1 out of 1000 may get a niche right here or there!
 
It's nothing but they are just 'jealous' of the measures emplyed by SPD and ASFC to secure the info regarding the Nukes. Lemme assure you that it is nothing like before, you just cant imagine the kind of strategy they have in place to secure them. The very little and basic thing that i can tell you is like the phrase 'ignorance is blessing'; no one knows what they are doing! They are JUST doing it. Apart from this we all very well know the consequence of leaking out such info so people are like die hard 'dheet' when it comes down to missiles and Nukes!!

Simply, had that been so easy already a decade has passed and things should have been out, but it's not like this instead you just find people like the author and others who just use 'hit and trial' to extract more info, so the bottom line comes down to keeping shut!
 
Interesting response by Tariq Mehmood.

Dr. Shaun Gregory’s ‘The Terrorist threat to Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons’

Having served in the Pakistan military in sensitive posts for over three decades, at both the PAF bases where the purported terrorist attacks took place for over a decade and having interacted with Dr. Gregory in person and through e-mail, I have to say that I have not come across a more ludicrous piece of writing.

On one hand, he admits that Pakistan has been able to establish a ‘robust’ nuclear weapons security system while on the other, he shocks the reader by construing three blatant acts of terror to be attacks against Pakistan’s amply secure nuclear weapons arsenal.

Both of the attacks in the vicinity of the PAF bases were on vehicles plying on main thoroughfares – the one at Sargodha was on a military bus carrying personnel on their way to work at Kirana and occurred on the main Sargodha – Faisalabad road. The attack near Kamra was on a school bus, which was travelling on the main road connecting Kamra with Attock. Since the school children were from PAF families, the bus conveying them was a military vehicle.

The point is that even if any nuclear facilities exist in Sargodha and Kamra (remember I served at both places for almost 12 years), both these attacks were typical terrorist attacks targeting human lives, and innocent ones at that too. He conveniently forgets to highlight that since these two attacks on the vehicles occurred on main inter-city roads, there was no breach of security whatsoever in both instances.

As to the third attack on the main entrance of the Pakistan Ordnance Factories in Wah, his assumption that this was targeting Pakistan nuclear weapons is proved incorrect by the following:

* POF Wah is a civilian manned and run organization which comes under the Ministry of Defence. To think that the Pakistan military would select these factory premises for storing / assembling nuclear weapons is, to say the least, preposterous. The military which guards Pakistan’s nuclear assets jealously would never permit any significant involvement of a civilian set-up in such sensitive matters. To prove my point further, I might add that to my knowledge, there is no active unit of the Pakistan Army deployed in or around Wah with even the security of the POF being delegated to elements of the paramilitary Defence Services Guards (DSGs). Could anyone believe that the Pakistan military would have entrusted the security of an installation of nuclear significance to elements of the ill-equipped and inadequately trained DSGs.

* The attack in Wah also was aimed at causing maximum loss of human lives and did not target any facility or infrastructure whatsoever. Those who have travelled on the branch of the old Grand Trunk Road between Islamabad and Peshawar which traverses through POF Wah would know that the main worker’s entrance to the POF is located just a few hundred yards away from this busy thoroughfare and approaching it does not require one to negotiate any significant security barriers.

While I concur with Dr. Gregory in that the extremist militants have an eye on Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, I would fault his conclusion, which is based on painting the above mentioned three acts of terrorism as attacks against Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. This incorrect depiction of these three acts of terrorism has tainted an otherwise scholarly treatise with ‘sensationalism’ and has made the author’s conclusions border on the ridiculous.

Tariq Mahmud Ashraf
Air Commodore (Retired)
Fujairah, UAE

Dr. Shaun Gregory’s ‘The Terrorist threat to Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons’ | Pakistan Daily
 
Hi,

Mr Tariq Mahmood's reply is a proper answer to Gregory---if Tariq Mahmood was here on defence.pk and we could have sent this letter to any major english newspaper, it would have worked a thousand times better than any discussion with Gregory.

This man Gregory has shown his less bright side through his analysis---it was time for us to finish the job.
 
Prof Gregory like many in academia and hold “expert” status will always have something to say be it via interviews or an occasional Op-Ed.

In all cases this tends to lead to a level of bias or a better term is skewness in the end result presented in the media.

That skew may be generated by the media’s editor or by the odd views taken by the writer. In either case it is for a specific consumption. Interviews will have a bias based on the journalist’s intent be what ever that is and the interviewee may not know before hand what this intent really is.

Prof Gregory, if you do read this, yes I have been in academia long enough to understand the concept of expert status and also do realise it can provide an avenue to as the saying goes ‘push ones own barrow’.
I am but suggesting the piece provided has a slight hint of skewness which should have had a more substantial amount of evidence to back the implications.

There are possibly other ways the concept of nuclear security could be presented with out the additional excitement presented.

As for the article and similar stories presented in the media, in most cases it is always best to let such thing die a natural death. The more people hop about making noises saying it is wrong tends to add to its overall validity.


Further; this is but a forum, though public, has zilch as far as political and public weight goes.
Discussion here tend to pacify local consumption abut little else is really gained.
 
Hi,

Mr Tariq Mahmood's reply is a proper answer to Gregory---if Tariq Mahmood was here on defence.pk and we could have sent this letter to any major english newspaper, it would have worked a thousand times better than any discussion with Gregory.

This man Gregory has shown his less bright side through his analysis---it was time for us to finish the job.

Air Commodore (Retired)Tariq Mahmud Ashraf’s reply may be useful if it was to be published in the CTC Sentinel. Note I said may.

Being published in the Pakistan Daily, or for that matter here, has little or no significance but for local consumption.

The job is finished for now. Let it sit as that will prevent any distorting of facts.
 
....and i told you so! even a person with some common sence would conclude/agree with the air-commodore!

these nuke conspiricies will not go away, not in my life-time anyway because they threaten the existence of india and israel!

i have no issue engaging with such but not from a position of weakness. further we have to ensure that we have completed our homework on this issue, and i completely agree we cant be un-civil in our dialouge!
 
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....and i told you so! even a person with some common sence would conclude/agree with the air-commodore!

these nuke conspiricies will not go away, not in my life-time anyway because they threaten the existence of india and israel!

i have no issue engaging with such but not from a position of weakness. further we have to ensure that we have completed our homework on this issue, and i completely agree we cant be un-civil in our dialouge!

The essence of the iron-clad secrecy and survival of our nuke program lies in the proverbial game-play of 'smoke and mirrors' with the powers that are concerned. Though the responsive article by the Air Commodore is appreciated whilst its actual impact will be minimal on the pre-set mindsets of the western intellects and experts.

If we need to make an impact and mold opinions accordingly; we need to identify and then penetrate the opinion-making international publications which turns these self-proclaimed intellects into experts!

Mods; why don't you prepare a list of such important foreign policy/ defense/ strategy publications and show them here for all to see and target for future opinion articles?
 
If we need to make an impact and mold opinions accordingly; we need to identify and then penetrate the opinion-making international publications which turns these self-proclaimed intellects into experts!

Mods; why don't you prepare a list of such important foreign policy/ defense/ strategy publications and show them here for all to see and target for future opinion articles?

This only works if you carry a level of personal credibility, that is how you stand within that field and your association.
This is something which few here carry to make such opeds.
This is why I said the Air Commodore's piece may carry some weight. But it is easy to brush it off from their perspective.
Unless he has produced writings on similar topics and has their acceptance of being credible in the implied subject it becomes little more than a readers comment.
 
My 'issue' with the likes of Air Commodores, Brigadiers, Commodores, Rear Admiral, Generals, AVM's etc who retire and immediately become proverbial experts in the field of military & strategic affairs that 99% of them do not hold water by virtue of their 'years' of service in the military! I have seen better & more established civilian defense/ strategic experts such as Dr. Siddiqua Agha, Dr. Hasan Askari, Ikram Sehgal, Dr. Shireen Mazari etc who have more wider view and expertise on defense issues then the 'starred' retired brass!! Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad (ISSI) is a good incubator/ think tank for civilian experts in such matters!
 
My 'issue' with the likes of Air Commodores, Brigadiers, Commodores, Rear Admiral, Generals, AVM's etc who retire and immediately become proverbial experts in the field of military & strategic affairs that 99% of them do not hold water by virtue of their 'years' of service in the military! I have seen better & more established civilian defense/ strategic experts such as Dr. Siddiqua Agha, Dr. Hasan Askari, Ikram Sehgal, Dr. Shireen Mazari etc who have more wider view and expertise on defense issues then the 'starred' retired brass!! Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad (ISSI) is a good incubator/ think tank for civilian experts in such matters!

I realise we may slightly go off track here but your comments do need a little rectifying.

Possibly within the confines of the Pakistan military there is a hiatus re publications. This is in reality a self inflected wound. Publishing in any reputable magazine or journal is a basis for getting that real recognition. Note reputable = normally an editorial panel reviewing the presented matter. This is all normal stuff for any academic which in essence your ISSI is just that an academic entity. Also one small proviso, the journals and magazines must be public. In house stuff has no meaning.

Now back to your military point re the brass not being good value experts. This is based on their lack of publication in reputable journals and magazines. Your comments also hint that these people don’t publish full stop.
Many militaries and departments of defence have public defence biased journals and are public. Perhaps it is time that Pakistan looked at this as a way of gaining a bit more world recognition of their members’ reputation and status, as far as being experts goes.

Also HILAL is not the level I am referring to.

Some links to examples:

Defence Magazine: Issue 3 2009

Welcome to Australian Defence Force Journal

The Soldiers Army : August 20th 2009, Page 1 - Defence Newspapers | The Soldiers Army

USNI Official Website - U.S. Naval Institute

Marines Magazine

There are more and they take submission from outside their respective services as well.


Ok end taking things off track..
 

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