Pakistani military facing tougher fight in northwest than reported

[jeypore]

The Pakistani military has encountered tougher resistance than it has reported since it took on the Taliban in the Swat Valley in late April, according to a classified intelligence briefing given to the senior-most Indian military leaders. The tough fighting has caused cracks in some of the military units, but the force has not broken.

The secret briefing was recently delivered by the Indian Defense Staff to the Chiefs of Staff Committee, the equivalent to the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Two pages of the briefing, labeled "SIT IN FATA," or the situation in the FATA [Federally Administered Tribal Agency], have been obtained by The Long War Journal. Elements of this briefing were reported by India Today on June 16.

US intelligence officials told The Long War Journal the Indian assessment is "accurate."

The Indian assessment said that more than 370 soldiers have been killed and some soldiers have deserted since the operation against Mullah Fazlullah's Taliban forces in Swat, Dir, and Buner began almost two months ago. India Today put the number of soldiers that have deserted at more than 900.

The Pakistani military has reported only 120 soldiers have been killed during the operation, while claiming more than 1,500 Taliban fighters, or more than 20 percent of the estimated Taliban fighters in Swat, have been killed. The numbers cannot be confirmed as the military has conducted a virtual media blackout in the Swat Valley. In the past, US military sources have described the Taliban casualty figures to The Long War Journal as "wildly exaggerated," and have put the latest estimate of Taliban killed at around 500.

"Infighting/mutinous conditions" exist in some Pakistani Army units, according to the report. "Incidence of mutiny" has been reported in three of the 22 brigades fighting in the northwest. The report identified the units as the Parachinar and Kohat Brigades from XI Corps, and the Turbat Brigade from XII Corps. There have been six incidences of fratricide or open violence between soldiers in the three named brigades, and the military has “requisitioned psych advisors for embedding” into the units.

The Pakistani Army is "conducting major ops" in the northwest but the top leadership of the Taliban and al Qaeda operating in the region are "still intact" due to "poor HUMINT [human intelligence] and lack of local support." Of the 21 senior Taliban leaders identified by the Pakistani government as wanted, none have been killed or captured. The military claims the second and third tier leaders of the Swat Taliban have suffered significant losses.

The operations have been described as "successful in some areas" but the Army has "alienated" the local population. Civilians fleeing the region have reported that the Army has used heavy-handed tactics such as indiscriminate artillery and airstrikes against civilians.

Pakistani Army has suffered worse in the past

While the Indian assessment paints a bleak picture of the state of the Pakistani military, the force has suffered worse in the past, and has held as a cohesive unit during the current operation.

An estimated 22,000 soldiers are reported to have been deployed in Swat, putting the desertion rate at around six percent, a high number but not a crippling one given that some of the soldiers have been recruited from the areas where they are fighting.

During past operations, desertions have been reported to have numbered in the thousands. During an operation against the Abdullah Mehsud-led Taliban in South Waziristan in 2004, heavy fighting and a fatwa, or religious edict, are thought to have contributed to the abandonment of the offensive and the signing of the first of many failed peace agreements.

The fatwa, which was issued by Red Mosque leaders Maulana Abdul Aziz and Ghazi Abdul Rasheed, stated that Pakistani soldiers killed while fighting against the Taliban and al Qaeda in South Waziristan did not deserve a Muslim funeral or a burial at Muslim cemeteries. This fatwa had an impact on Pakistani soldiers and many refused to fight or abandoned their units.

The military has also sustained the offensive in Swat, Dir and Buner, and has expanded operations into Mohmand, Bajaur, Arakzai, Bannu, and Hangu. Some of these forays, such as in Hangu and Arakzai, have consisted of punitive air and artillery strikes, however.

The military is also in the opening stages of an offensive in South Waziristan. The Army and Air Force are conducting strikes against Baitullah Mehsud's forces, but appear to have chosen not to confront the other three powerful commanders. But the military is still preparing to march into the teeth of the Taliban in South Waziristan, indicating that while the Army may have been bloodied, it hasn't been broken.

Pakistani military facing tougher fight in northwest than reported - The Long War Journal

 

[PeacefulIndian]

Mutiny in 3 Pak infantry brigades?: India Today - Latest Breaking News from India, World, Business, Cricket, Sports, Bollywood.

With reports of mass desertion, the Pakistan Army-battling the Taliban in the North West Frontier Province-appeared to be in deep trouble.

The tri-services intelligence recently made a presentation to the military top brass, putting the number of soldiers deserting the forces to be more than 900. Headlines Today possessed these exclusive intelligence inputs.

According to the inputs, cases of fratricide-soldiers killing soldiers-have shot up in some formations of the Pakistan Army.

The mutiny has been reported in three infantry brigades-Parachinar, Kohat and Turbat-with at least six recent fratricide cases in the army formations.

It forced the army to seek the psychiatrists' assistance to help the troops. The report said cases of mutiny within the Pakistan Army were on a sharp rise since 2007.

The soldiers' toll in the current operations stood at 370 since April 2009.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan Army ordered a manhunt for Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud in Makeen. Taliban leaders Maulvi Nazir and Qari Gulbahadur Jaan also top their list.

Waziristan leader Qari Zainuddin is supporting the manhunt for Mehsud.

The report said Mehsud has been maintaining contact with two senior Pak Army officers. The Taliban have extensive prior inputs on the army's movements, it added.

The army claimed to have smoked out the Taliban from its tribal areas, but intelligence reports say that the Al Qaeda and the Taliban top brass were still very much intact.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

"The secret briefing was recently delivered by the Indian Defense Staff to the Chiefs of Staff Committee, the equivalent to the Joint Chiefs of Staff."

Time for the Indians to step in with their own propaganda of course.

Thread closed for lack of credible and impartial sources.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I am going to open this thread and post my exchange with Bill Roggio on his site on this issue, and others, under the moniker MZBH.

Posted by MZBH at June 18, 2009 12:17 PM ET:

psy-ops by the Indians now.

They have to tray and get their own back after the years of desertions, fratricide and breakdown in discipline (rapes and murders - check HRW and AI reports) in Kashmir.

Whether you saw the report or not Bill, it is still and Indian generated report, conveniently leaked to the press.

As someone else pointed out, desertions occur in any army, and PA soldiers are not going to be immune from the psychological pressures of fighting a messy insurgency against fellow Pakistanis.

Unlike the Indians in Kashmir and NATO in Afghanistan, there are strong bonds on nationhood, faith and in many cases ethnicity in this war for Pakistan.

Nonetheless, I'll take 'leaks' like this out of Indian intelligence with a pinch of salt.

Posted by MZBH at June 18, 2009 12:28 PM ET:

"In the past, US military sources have described the Taliban casualty figures to The Long War Journal as "wildly exaggerated," and have put the latest estimate of Taliban killed at around 500."

As reported on this site as well - US intelligence can't even gets the casualties inflicted by its own troops on the Taliban right - how on earth can they estimate casualties in a warzone in Pakistan? They even got the death of a Taliban commander wrong (as has Pakistan in the past), as you yourself posted recently.

P.S: The single biggest day of casualties in the Swat Op.s resulted from an attack on a training camp in Shangla I believe (200+ for that particular day). Those casualties were later verified by a civilian DCO of the region in another report in The News.

I see little reason to believe the assertion by US intelligence. Smacks of trying to put the Pakistanis down to make themselves look better.

Posted by Bill Roggio at June 18, 2009 12:47 PM ET:

MBZH,

I don't disagree that reports from the Indians should be taken with a grain of salt. I will say that it does coincide with other reports I have received from US intel and even some Pakistani sources.

Regardless, if that is Indian propaganda it isn't very good. They actually admit the Pak Army is making some progress and they are not saying the Pak Army has broken.

I think what is more significant is what is mentioned in the second half of the article. If you read into what the Indians are saying, it shows there is resolve in the Pak Army despite some tough losses and problems. The desertion rates really aren't that bad considering the situation. That the Army has held and taken on more responsibility is a positive development. I don;t think I could have been more clear about this.

As far as US casualty reports: when the US gets it wrong, they correct the record. For instance one day after they thought they got Mullah Mustafa in Ghor, they retracted it:

Iranian-backed Afghan Taliban commander survived airstrike - The Long War Journal

The US Army/military has admitted to its mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan. It just unceremoniously fired the ISAF commander.

That is called being honest. I certainly don't expect perfection in initial reports, it isn't called the fog of war for nothing. What I do expect is honesty and candor. The Pakistani Army would do well to be open about what is working and what isn't, and to occasionally admit that things didn't go as they had thought, or that an HVT they thought they killed wasn't.

For instance, the Pak Army still hasn't retracted its report that Mustafa Abu Yazid was killed last summer. The guy has been on several propaganda tapes since then.

Admit you got it wrong and we'll understand. Obscure the truth and we'll be critical.

Keep trotting out Gen Abbas to give press briefings, and we'll be skeptical. The general has blatantly lied to us numerous times (I've documented this) yet we are supposed to trust his reports?

And after we're told of the value of the peace agreements, how Baitullah is a "patriot" by a Corps Commander, how Mullah Fazlullah is a "local Taliban" not involved with the bigger movement, how Sufi Mohammed is a "moderate tribal leader"... I coudl go on. Shall I?

This is why very few people trust what comes from the Pakistani military. You are free to accept their word if you wish.

Posted by MZBH at June 18, 2009 1:02 PM ET:

Bill:
"And after we're told of the value of the peace agreements, how Baitullah is a "patriot" by a Corps Commander, how Mullah Fazlullah is a "local Taliban" not involved with the bigger movement, how Sufi Mohammed is a "moderate tribal leader"... I coudl go on. Shall I?"

A different situation for each one of those instances:

1. Indian warmongering and a decision to close ranks and close the front in the West in case of Indian aggression post Mumbai.

2. Fazlullah was a local Taliban not involved in a bigger movement. Failure to act against him, and his alliance with the TTP and reinforcements from FATA and elsewhere allowed him to get to the point he is at.

3. You can't very well use Sufi Mohammed for attempting a peace deal and call him an extremist nut case.

The problem is not with the statements you mentioned, the problem is with the inability to understand the context in which each action is taken.

I consider those well thought out shifts in positions by the PA based on the strategic requirements and priorities of the time. So yes, I will continue to give the PA statements credence.

Posted by Bill Roggio at June 18, 2009 1:10 PM ET:

"Fazlullah was a local Taliban not involved in a bigger movement. Failure to act against him, and his alliance with the TTP and reinforcements from FATA and elsewhere allowed him to get to the point he is at."

That is rich. The TTP is a larger movement, one your own government says is allied with al Qaeda. You know, Baitullah, the guy that hosts al Qaeda leaders runs suicide camps and such.

"You can't very well use Sufi Mohammed for attempting a peace deal and call him an extremist nut case."

Only in Pakistan is a guy like Sufi Mohammed considered a moderate. Well maybe not only in Pakistan... Perhaps you should read what he said about Osama bin Laden, or democracy in pakistan, or his leading 10,000 fighters to wage jihad in Pakistan, or his group being "banned" by your own government for being a terrorist group.

"The problem is not with the statements you mentioned, the problem is with the inability to understand the context in which each action is taken."

I'd address that, but I really don't think I need to. I'll let the other readers decide who is missing the context of events in Pakistan. Particularly when your own statements contradict what what the government you are defending is saying.

Posted by Bill Roggio at June 18, 2009 1:49 PM ET:

I'll also address MZBH's first point:

"Indian warmongering and a decision to close ranks and close the front in the West in case of Indian aggression post Mumbai."

To be clear to the other reader, MZBH is addressing the point I made about a Pakistani Army Corps Commander calling Baitullah Mehsud a "patriot".

Where I come from, "patriots" don't train and sortie child suicide bombers, murder local politicians (the US equivalent of "tribal leaders"), assassinate former Prime Ministers, order suicide attacks in our major cities, blow up hotels, target the Army, police, and national guard, etc.

There is absolutely no context whatsoever where calling someone like Baitullah Mehsud a "patriot" is considered reasonable. None. Some better terms: "enemy of the state" or "monster" or "mass murderer" or "traitor". Perhaps the good corps Commander should rethink his statement and issue an apology. Otherwise many of us question the judgment of keeping him in command.

Posted by MZBH at June 18, 2009 11:41 PM ET:

Bill Roggio:
“That is rich. The TTP is a larger movement, one your own government says is allied with al Qaeda. You know, Baitullah, the guy that hosts al Qaeda leaders runs suicide camps and such.”

That is not the point I made – the TTP is not a monolithic entity, and even where there are commanders that claim to owe it and B Mehsud allegiance, they do not necessarily function that way. Mullah Falzullah was courted by the TTP (Mehsud) after the ANP led government came to power and put in place the ceasefire and peace deals to fulfill the promise to the electorate of ‘dialog’. The connections started there, otherwise Fazlullah was, and largely is, a ‘local Taliban’.

“Only in Pakistan is a guy like Sufi Mohammed considered a moderate. Well maybe not only in Pakistan... Perhaps you should read what he said about Osama bin Laden, or democracy in pakistan, or his leading 10,000 fighters to wage jihad in Pakistan, or his group being "banned" by your own government for being a terrorist group.”

That is a distortion of my point, or you didn’t understand it. I did not say SM was a moderate, I said that you could not use him as a negotiating tool while also calling him an extremist nut case. He failed as a negotiating tool, so what – his inflammatory and hateful rhetoric, along with Taliban atrocities and expansion AFTER the Swat deal, instead achieved that which the GoP has failed for years to do – broad political and public consensus and support over enforcing the writ of the State through military means.

“I'd address that, but I really don't think I need to. I'll let the other readers decide who is missing the context of events in Pakistan. Particularly when your own statements contradict what what the government you are defending is saying.”

Unfortunately, I think both you and readers are missing the ‘context’, and the GoP will say what it will, but there should be no doubt that had India actually acted on its warmongering rhetoric, Baitullah and Osama himself would have been called patriots so long as they put aside the insurgency and assisted Pakistan in dealing with Indian aggression. In case of an Indian attack on Pakistan, it is India that is the bigger threat to Pakistan, not Al Qaeda and not the Taliban. If the Indians hold off, the Taliban and AQ regain prominence as the major existential threat to Pakistan, and will continue to be dealt with.

This has nothing to do with supporting or accepting the actions of the Taliban and AQ, it has everything to do with prioritizing the threats facing the country.

Posted by MZBH at June 19, 2009 12:01 AM ET:

Bill Roggio:
“The US Army/military has admitted to its mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan. It just unceremoniously fired the ISAF commander.
That is called being honest. I certainly don't expect perfection in initial reports, it isn't called the fog of war for nothing. What I do expect is honesty and candor. The Pakistani Army would do well to be open about what is working and what isn't, and to occasionally admit that things didn't go as they had thought, or that an HVT they thought they killed wasn't. “

I fail to see how you can claim that the PA sticking with its intelligence analysis suggesting that it killed an HVT is ‘dishonesty’? What it does indicate is that the PA believes in its intelligence, and does not believe the Taliban/AQ claims that the HVT is alive (if the PA is indeed officially still insisting that it killed a certain HVT). To conclude from that that the PA is ‘dishonest’ is reaching a bit too far and smacks of bias, and like I said, I am not certain whether the PA is still officially insisting that the HVT you mentioned was killed.

The PA has traditionally been a very opaque organization. Adopting a more transparent PR role has come slowly, though the improvements, going by the Swat operation, are impressive. The PA seems to have learnt its lesson about claiming HVT kills, since it has been at pains to point out that it cannot confirm whether Mullah FM or his spokesperson were killed, despite GoP and GoNWFP leaders stating that they thought he was dead.

The DG ISPR has been at hand to answer almost all press queries, and has done so very well, though I still have complaint on some issues, but improvements will come with time. None of this suggests dishonesty – it points to an organization that is maturing into adopting a more polished and transparent PR strategy.

Let me also point out that in many airstrikes the US has still not reconciled its accounts with those of the locals and GoA. One major strike last year ended with egg on the US militaries face when the SECOND investigation into the strikes supported the original US conclusion, only for cell phone footage showing those killed in the strikes emerged. The accounts of the most recent case of air strikes gone awry are similarly unresolved between the US and locals. Should I take this as a sign of 'dishonesty' on the part of the US military then? That it refuses to acknowledge civilian casualties till damning evidence emerges? Or is it a case of the US military sticking to its conclusions based on the evidence it has, even though US conclusions contradict what locals think happened?

Why is the same latitude not extended to the PA, which has a far less sophisticated and mature PR arm, instead of accusing it of dishonesty?

Posted by MZBH at June 19, 2009 12:27 AM ET:

"Regardless, if that is Indian propaganda it isn't very good. They actually admit the Pak Army is making some progress and they are not saying the Pak Army has broken."

That doesn't mean anything. Those issues are easily verifiable, and it would be hard for the Indians to claim otherwise given that the military has taken in local and foreign reporters to Mingora and other towns and locations to show that they have been cleared, and the IDP's are beginning to return.

In addition, US military authorities have this to say:

General James Conway:
"General Conway said they have done masterful things with regard to the information operations effort that must be in place when one takes these people on. "You see the villagers siding with the army now, conducting independent operations or being relying upon the army to assist them in what they're doing".

"Its all very wholesome. we wish them continued success and salute them for what I think, again, has been a masterful military maneuver at this point, based on what we have seen", Conway said."

General Petraeus:
"‘These have been quite impressive operations and I think Pakistan deserves some significant credit for it … the concepts are solid and the execution is on track,’ "

With all this praise for the PA operations, the Indians woudl be fools to not recognize that the PA has made significant advances. So they focused on lying about the parts they know are not easily verifiable, and easily distorted - Army and taliban casualties, desertions and the whole canard about 'artillery and air strikes on civilians'.

The latter was debunked by the journalists taken on the Swat tours, who were surprised at the lack of damage in the towns and populated areas that saw (including Mingora) since they too had believed that the PA/PAF were bombing 'willy nilly'.

Now I can see the Pakistani casualty and desertion figures being accurate if they include the Frontier Corps, Levies, Scouts etc, because AFAIK, the daily ISPR briefings focus on Army casualties only, not the paramilitaries.

The CO in Swat recently terminated about 24 Levies who surrendered their post in Lower Dir when it came under attack, and I believe were rescued from being taken hostage by villagers.

I continue to have strong doubts about the 500 Taliban dead being suggested. The strike on the one Taliban camp alone, verified through the DCO of the district, resulted in about 200 Taliban dead.

Perhaps you should consider that the Taliban were buoyed by their success in the peace deal and the half hearted ops immediately before the peace deal, and actually tried to fight as a conventional force initially, and hold ground in the various towns and villages.

The intelligence intercepts of the TTP-Swat spokesperson speaking with someone in FATA indicate that they suffered heavy casualties:

MK: We are under pressure. The intensity of brutality is not known by you people because army is not allowing journalists in.
2nd: ok I will convey your massage till evening you are doing right thing????

MK: If you people will keep on sitting like this, things will get out of hands
2nd I agree
**MK = Muslim Khan, Taliban Swat Spokesperson
http://www.defence.pk/forums/pakist...ntel-intercepts-pakistan-winning-its-wot.html

To argue that Pakistan suffered 375 dead, 900 desertions while inflicting only 500 Taliban casualties is really stretching the bounds of credulity, to put it nicely. The evidence, what little there is, suggests otherwise.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Continued ....

Posted by Bill Roggio at June 19, 2009 8:03 AM ET:

MZBH,

"This has nothing to do with supporting or accepting the actions of the Taliban and AQ, it has everything to do with prioritizing the threats facing the country".

Thank you for clearly articulating the Pakistani state's embracing of strategic depth. This is what bought you your insurgency, and your refusal to discard it will allow you to be mired in this insurgency for year to come. We really do understand India is the primary threat, not those "locals" murdering thousands of your citizens, detting child suicide bombs against your police, military, etc., hosting al Qaeda, and actively using your country to attack Afghanistan.

Even your "pro-government locals" like Zainullah Mehsud openly admit they side with Mullah Omar & Osama and use Pakistan to attack Afghanistan. And your government supports him. News flash: If Baitullah buys it, guys like Zainullah merely will take their place. You can tell yourself all day long that you'll be fine as he only wants to strike in Afghanistan, but the reality is he'll host the same people that will conduct attacks in Pakistan. See Hafiz Gul Bahadar and Mullah Nazir, for instance.

That you can defend and rationalize dealings with Baitullah, Fazlullah (who is anything but local, but nice try), Sufi, and the like also speaks volumes. There really are some people governments shouldn't deal with, despite the security concerns. Clear the government doesn't understand the awful message it sent to the Pakistani people living under the boot of the Taliban, and those close to it. And you wonder why the people are reluctant to support the military. Its because they've been thrown to the wolves far too often.

That it took atrocities AFTER the Swat deal to mobilize public opinion also speaks volumes. It is odd that years of mass casualty suicide attacks (Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Wah, Dargai, Peshawar....), the denuding of the tribal leadership, assassinations, oppressive rule were not considered significant or horrific.

I have significant doubts the Pakistani military has achieved a 15-1 kill ration when it has yet to come even close to doing so in the past.

The rest, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I've seen far too much dishonesty from the ISPR to chalk it up to organizational inertia. And nice try on Mustafa Abu Yazid. You'll excuse me for not buying General Petraeus or General Conway's glowing assessments. And the civilians fleeing the fighting have told far different stories that the journalists taken on guided tours of the battlefield. If things were so rosy the PA wouldn't have put a media blackout (except for filtered tours) and provided nearly all the info through high level briefings.

That said, and despite all of my skepticism, the Pakistani offensive and resolve so far has exceeded my expectations, the military has held, and the leadership is willing to take on more, even though they may be overextending itself. I made the point in the second half of the article, you clearly missed that, sadly.

And my last response to him, which is pending approval before being posted:

Bill Roggio:

"Thank you for clearly articulating the Pakistani state's embracing of strategic depth. This is what bought you your insurgency, and your refusal to discard it will allow you to be mired in this insurgency for year to come. We really do understand India is the primary threat, not those "locals" murdering thousands of your citizens, detting child suicide bombs against your police, military, etc., hosting al Qaeda, and actively using your country to attack Afghanistan."

My comment has nothing to do with strategic depth. You missed the qualifier I included and distorted my point - 'The Taliban and AQ are not a threat in case of an attack or imminent attack by India'. I do not support my country fighting an insurgency while the threat of the Indians attacking Pakistan is high, as was the case in the immediate aftermath of Mumbai. The IAF Chief recently admitted that plans to attack Pakistan were finalized and the GoI was strongly considering the option.

This does not make the Taliban or AQ good, it just lowers the threat they pose to Pakistan relative to the Indians. So long as they Indians back off, and there is no danger of Indian aggression, I completely support strong military action against the Taliban and AQ - I did so before the Mumbai attacks, and I do so now, since the Eastern front has cooled down again.

"I have significant doubts the Pakistani military has achieved a 15-1 kill ration when it has yet to come even close to doing so in the past."

That argument assumes that the PA is a static organization incapable of learning, adapting and evolving, and not even the Indians would argue that.


Similar levels of casualties were also inflicted upon the Taliban in the Bajaur operation, though Loisam and some other areas ended up being leveled. The Bajaur Ops were however a huge improvement from previous engagements and the current Swat Operation, from open source information, appears to have improved upon Bajaur, with so far no evidence of Loisam like destruction.

By extension your argument would suggest that we should not believe any proclaimed future improvements in Afghanistan, because the US/NATO have not been able to display any in the eight years so far!

There is plenty of open source information, and the words of the Military leadership backing up my arguments. You are using an Indian sourced intel report and 'anonymous sources'.

"The rest, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I've seen far too much dishonesty from the ISPR to chalk it up to organizational inertia."

We can agree to disagree, but I would like to once more point out that just because Pakistani intel sources claimed certain HVT's were killed does not make them dishonest - at worse it makes their intel suspect in those cases. Without providing a specific response from the ISPR on the issue of Masri - whether they continue to support their initial assertion that he was killed, and why - calling them dishonest is really stretching it too far without justification.

But if there is information that I may have overlooked, that points to the ISPR deliberately lying, instead of just getting its intelligence wrong, like the US has several times as well, then I'll reconsider my position.

"If things were so rosy the PA wouldn't have put a media blackout (except for filtered tours) and provided nearly all the info through high level briefings."

That's a speculative argument and you know it. From what I understand, the decision to not allow media coverage in the warzone has been taken so as to not allow civilian casualties to be used as propaganda and allow the public and political support for the military operations to fall. If you followed the Pakistani media in the days after the Lal Masjid operation, you should know how the media distorted the civilian casualties and blamed the PA for acting as it did, despite the fact that they were egging the PA, and criticizing the dragging standoff, to take action right until the operation.

"You'll excuse me for not buying General Petraeus or General Conway's glowing assessments."

You are then calling your own top Military leadership liars and 'dishonest', and the question then arises as to why anything else the US Military does should be considered 'honest', as you claimed earlier.

"That said, and despite all of my skepticism, the Pakistani offensive and resolve so far has exceeded my expectations, the military has held, and the leadership is willing to take on more, even though they may be overextending itself. I made the point in the second half of the article, you clearly missed that, sadly."

Mr. Roggio, I did not miss that, and I do appreciate that conclusion of yours. My disagreements with you are on the 'details'.

I have no love lost for the people we are now hunting, and I would like nothing more than the Eastern front to remain calm so that Pakistan can continue focusing on this threat and eliminate it.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I would like to point out the following points;

1. Mr. Roggio has not explained why the Indian intelligence estimate should be considered credible, nor has he elaborated on the argument made by myself and others that the numbers mentioned in the alleged document contain casualties and desertions suffered by the Army, Frontier Corp, Frontier Constabulary, Scouts, levies etc.

2. Mr. Roggio has not offered a suitable explanation and justification for calling the PA and ISPR 'dishonest'. His argument is that the PA is dishonest because it claimed killing Masri and he turned up alive. I pointed out that the US has done the same with HVT's it has targetted.

He then argued that the US retracted its claims, which apparently makes the US honest and Pakistan 'dishonest', but he has not presented any evidence suggesting that (a) The PA officially claimed killing Masri (b) The PA is currently still insisting that it killed Masri (c) If the PA is still claiming it killed Masri, whether it has been asked why it is sticking with its original assessment.

Arguing 'dishonesty' just because the PA got intel on a target wrong (like the US) is really stretching the truth IMO.

3. Mr. Roggio has not offered a suitable explanation for the '500 Taliban casualties' he claims. As I pointed out, there is evidence from a secondary civilian source (the DCO) that suggests that the death toll from the day the camp was bombed was accurate. That one day alone makes up almost 50% of the casualties Roggio claims.

We also have the intercept of the conversation between Muslim Khan and someone in FATA, in which MK accepts heavy losses and an impending disaster for the Taliban in Swat.

All of this points to the fact that the PA numbers are indeed accurate.

4. Mr. Roggio claimed that:
"The military claims no civilians have been killed during the fighting."

That is patently false, and I pointed this out to Mr. Roggio a few days ago:

The DG ISPR has in fact personally apologized for civilian casualties, though he maintained that they were minimal, and that care was being taken to not attack populated areas with artillery and airstrikes.

‘Though the number of civilian casualties is minimal, we feel sorry for those killed by splinters and accidental fire,’ military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas said while briefing reporters about the progress of operation Rahe Rast. Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting Samsam Bukhari was also present on the occasion.

He said only the confirmed hideouts of terrorists were being attacked and collateral damage was being avoided even at the cost of the pace of operation. He said in the case of air fire, precision targeting based on authentic intelligence report was advancing the military operation without adversely affecting the civilian population.

http://swatvalley.org/index.php/news/military-apologizes-for-civilian-casualt?blog=1

So far there has been no correction to his post containing the inaccuracy, or a clarification in subsequent posts.

 

[wtf]

From the long thread of back and forth some things become clearer.

1) The full report that India made is not available.
2) It is possible that parts of it has been leaked - either as a publicity ploy or as a way for Indian Army to get more counter-terrorism funding. Or maybe someone who was in the briefing can't just keep his mouth shut. The whole report itself (not just the leaked parts) may tell a different story as Roggio was claiming.
3) LWJ thinks that Pak Army is not telling the truth. That gives an opportunity for others to fill in the details. The details themselves may be questionable, but LWJ claims they are backed by two sources and must have a grain of truth.
4) Claims of 900 desertions is not fully explained - was this from the Army, Lashkars etc. Does this include people who are genuinely missing in action or are they all deserters?

Anyway, I think the fight that Pak Army is fighting is for the right cause. Whether the reports are fair will only be explained much later on (or maybe never).

 

[TruthSeeker]

Wow, that was quite an exchange. Thank you for posting it here. AM you did an excellent job of "debating" him. I was surprised that he took so much time to converse with someone commenting on his website. The bottom line for me is that he is seeing Pakistani actions through the prism of what is (or would be) best for US interests. I suppose that is to be expected. It is what his primary audience expects, certainly.

 

[wtf]

I would like to point out the following points;

1. Mr. Roggio has not explained why the Indian intelligence estimate should be considered credible, nor has he elaborated on the argument made by myself and others that the numbers mentioned in the alleged document contain casualties and desertions suffered by the Army, Frontier Corp, Frontier Constabulary, Scouts, levies etc.

I think he is not saying it is fully correct. What he is saying is that there are reports from two sources (India/US) which both say something similar.

2. Mr. Roggio has not offered a suitable explanation and justification for calling the PA and ISPR 'dishonest'. His argument is that the PA is dishonest because it claimed killing Masri and he turned up alive. I pointed out that the US has done the same with HVT's it has targetted.

He then argued that the US retracted its claims, which apparently makes the US honest and Pakistan 'dishonest', but he has not presented any evidence suggesting that (a) The PA officially claimed killing Masri (b) The PA is currently still insisting that it killed Masri (c) If the PA is still claiming it killed Masri, whether it has been asked why it is sticking with its original assessment.

Arguing 'dishonesty' just because the PA got intel on a target wrong (like the US) is really stretching the truth IMO.

I think he might be saying that while USA and Pakistan both gets reports wrong, USA corrects them publicly. Pakistan, according to him, has not done that in the recent past.

3. Mr. Roggio has not offered a suitable explanation for the '500 Taliban casualties' he claims. As I pointed out, there is evidence from a secondary civilian source (the DCO) that suggests that the death toll from the day the camp was bombed was accurate. That one day alone makes up almost 50% of the casualties Roggio claims.

We also have the intercept of the conversation between Muslim Khan and someone in FATA, in which MK accepts heavy losses and an impending disaster for the Taliban in Swat.

All of this points to the fact that the PA numbers are indeed accurate.

Worries about impartiality of DCO and his sources (if his sources area also military figures) are one reason I can think of. Another is that non-Taliban got counted.

4. Mr. Roggio claimed that:
"The military claims no civilians have been killed during the fighting."

That is patently false, and I pointed this out to Mr. Roggio a few days ago:

The DG ISPR has in fact personally apologized for civilian casualties, though he maintained that they were minimal, and that care was being taken to not attack populated areas with artillery and airstrikes.

So far there has been no correction to his post containing the inaccuracy, or a clarification in subsequent posts.

I agree to this. I don't think anyone is claiming that all civilians are safe. I have not heard Pak Army claim it either. News reports have had direct stories from people caught in the crossfire (Dawn had a story earlier on talking to IDP families).

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

3) LWJ thinks that Pak Army is not telling the truth. That gives an opportunity for others to fill in the details. The details themselves may be questionable, but LWJ claims they are backed by two sources and must have a grain of truth.

LWJ is also essentially calling the US military leaderships glowing endorsements of the PA operations 'lies'.

To counter that he has the opinion of two unknown sources - that's not a very credible argument.

4) Claims of 900 desertions is not fully explained - was this from the Army, Lashkars etc. Does this include people who are genuinely missing in action or are they all deserters?

Neither are the casualty numbers for the Army and the Taliban explained. Do the KIA include paramilitaries?

And your point about the desertions is valid as well. We also know that the less trained paramilitaries - Frontier Constabulary, Scouts and levies have continued to see desertions and surrenders.

Anyway, I think the fight that Pak Army is fighting is for the right cause. Whether the reports are fair will only be explained much later on (or maybe never).

Agreed there, but there is open source evidence validating the PA's version of events in Swat, whereas there is little to back up the LWJ version of events other than 'anonymous sources'.

Plus many of the arguments he makes to discredit the PA apply just as well to the US Military, as I pointed out.

P.S: Did not read your post above before I posted this.

 

[wtf]

Wow, that was quite an exchange. Thank you for posting it here. AM you did an excellent job of "debating" him. I was surprised that he took so much time to converse with someone commenting on his website. The bottom line for me is that he is seeing Pakistani actions through the prism of what is (or would be) best for US interests. I suppose that is to be expected. It is what his primary audience expects, certainly.

I would think the best interest s of US are in Pak Army clearing out the whole area and leaving them a free hand in Afghanistan.

He is writing for the US audience, which always questions the "authority figures" - US press is full of articles about how Iraq/ Afghan war is a failure, how defense establishment is robbing the nation etc.

 

[blain2]

The Pakistani military has encountered tougher resistance than it has reported since it took on the Taliban in the Swat Valley in late April, according to a classified intelligence briefing given to the senior-most Indian military leaders. The tough fighting has caused cracks in some of the military units, but the force has not broken.

The secret briefing was recently delivered by the Indian Defense Staff to the Chiefs of Staff Committee, the equivalent to the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Two pages of the briefing, labeled "SIT IN FATA," or the situation in the FATA [Federally Administered Tribal Agency], have been obtained by The Long War Journal. Elements of this briefing were reported by India Today on June 16.

US intelligence officials told The Long War Journal the Indian assessment is "accurate."

The Indian assessment said that more than 370 soldiers have been killed and some soldiers have deserted since the operation against Mullah Fazlullah's Taliban forces in Swat, Dir, and Buner began almost two months ago. India Today put the number of soldiers that have deserted at more than 900.

The Pakistani military has reported only 120 soldiers have been killed during the operation, while claiming more than 1,500 Taliban fighters, or more than 20 percent of the estimated Taliban fighters in Swat, have been killed. The numbers cannot be confirmed as the military has conducted a virtual media blackout in the Swat Valley. In the past, US military sources have described the Taliban casualty figures to The Long War Journal as "wildly exaggerated," and have put the latest estimate of Taliban killed at around 500.

"Infighting/mutinous conditions" exist in some Pakistani Army units, according to the report. "Incidence of mutiny" has been reported in three of the 22 brigades fighting in the northwest. The report identified the units as the Parachinar and Kohat Brigades from XI Corps, and the Turbat Brigade from XII Corps. There have been six incidences of fratricide or open violence between soldiers in the three named brigades, and the military has “requisitioned psych advisors for embedding” into the units.

The Pakistani Army is "conducting major ops" in the northwest but the top leadership of the Taliban and al Qaeda operating in the region are "still intact" due to "poor HUMINT [human intelligence] and lack of local support." Of the 21 senior Taliban leaders identified by the Pakistani government as wanted, none have been killed or captured. The military claims the second and third tier leaders of the Swat Taliban have suffered significant losses.

The operations have been described as "successful in some areas" but the Army has "alienated" the local population. Civilians fleeing the region have reported that the Army has used heavy-handed tactics such as indiscriminate artillery and airstrikes against civilians.

Pakistani Army has suffered worse in the past

While the Indian assessment paints a bleak picture of the state of the Pakistani military, the force has suffered worse in the past, and has held as a cohesive unit during the current operation.

An estimated 22,000 soldiers are reported to have been deployed in Swat, putting the desertion rate at around six percent, a high number but not a crippling one given that some of the soldiers have been recruited from the areas where they are fighting.

During past operations, desertions have been reported to have numbered in the thousands. During an operation against the Abdullah Mehsud-led Taliban in South Waziristan in 2004, heavy fighting and a fatwa, or religious edict, are thought to have contributed to the abandonment of the offensive and the signing of the first of many failed peace agreements.

The fatwa, which was issued by Red Mosque leaders Maulana Abdul Aziz and Ghazi Abdul Rasheed, stated that Pakistani soldiers killed while fighting against the Taliban and al Qaeda in South Waziristan did not deserve a Muslim funeral or a burial at Muslim cemeteries. This fatwa had an impact on Pakistani soldiers and many refused to fight or abandoned their units.

The military has also sustained the offensive in Swat, Dir and Buner, and has expanded operations into Mohmand, Bajaur, Arakzai, Bannu, and Hangu. Some of these forays, such as in Hangu and Arakzai, have consisted of punitive air and artillery strikes, however.

The military is also in the opening stages of an offensive in South Waziristan. The Army and Air Force are conducting strikes against Baitullah Mehsud's forces, but appear to have chosen not to confront the other three powerful commanders. But the military is still preparing to march into the teeth of the Taliban in South Waziristan, indicating that while the Army may have been bloodied, it hasn't been broken.

Pakistani military facing tougher fight in northwest than reported - The Long War Journal

Quite a lot of bakvaas pulled out of nowhere. My best regards to the Indian armed forces if this is the level of intelligence and perception of the Pakistani Army. It bodes nothing but well for us.

The entire debrief centers around desertions as the main indicator of Pakistan facing a tough fight. Well these do not tell the whole story (even when they are problematic as they are cited). The bottom line is that Pakistani troops moved into the Swat area, have dominated every single firefight despite losses and have forced the militants to retreat back into FATA. This was the sole purpose, to close in and to retake the ground and make sure the whole country sees that the PA can, at will, go in and push these elements out.

PA has debunked all of the claims about not being trained in FIBUA/COIN and all other ill informed garbage that was heaped up on the Army because of the earlier stop and go operations. Anyone fighting an insurgency will tell you that there are multiple phases. The first thing PA have done in Swat is to demolish the myth that Taliban are a threat to Pakistan's existence and established the fact that these TTP cadres cannot hold ground in the face of the PA in settled area. Remote areas of FATA are inaccessible and require patience. US operations in similar terrain in Afghanistan are extremely inconclusive so none of the arguments denigrating the performance of the PA hold true.

Lets also recognize the fact that this approach of letting people vacate Swat worked to PA's advantage greatly because the militants were not able to capitalize on the issue of collateral damage. I personally think that was the smartest thing done in this campaign despite the challenges with the IDPs down south in the country. Inshallah those too will be handled (people are already returning to Swat in areas cleared by the Army that have amenities restored).

Now coming back to the issue of desertion, this is a very calculated approach being taken by Pakistan's detractors (in India specially). The desertions have primarily been a FC/khassadar phenomena, not one involving the Pakistan Army yet whenever it is mentioned, it is always stated in the context of the Pakistan armed forces. Ever since the induction of Army troops in the Swat theater, the instances of FC/Khassadar troops leaving their posts and deserting has gone down immensely. The other point is that desertion in the ranks of Khassadars and even FC are bound to happen due to the fact that tribal politics get in the way. These issues do not permeate the ranks of the Pakistan Army because most of the soldiers serving in the areas around Swat are not from Swat and there are other disciplinary and regimental issues that come into play that do not exist in the paramilitary outfits.

One other thing. While India today is estimating 900 troops who have deserted, one thing that may be unknown to India Today is that at least in the Khassadars, people go AWOL but then also come back, get punished and then get put back on duty. I suspect their tally is based on the reports in the various Pakistani newspapers over the past few years about FC/Khassadar troops deserting and they have tried to put a spin on it.

Militarily speaking, and by the grace of the Almighty, Pakistan Army has never lost a CI campaign and we have fought quite a few. There will no doubt be casualties, but PA will ensure that they are the only ones left standing at the end. The militants may never be completely defeated, but they cannot defeat PA in its own backyard either as much as the Indians want that to happen.

I can draw many parallels here about the almost hundreds of cases of fratricide in IoK by IA soldiers engaged in CI (that CI campaign was a child's play compared to what Pakistan and the ISAF are dealing with in FATA and Afghanistan respectively). Regular Pakistan Army and even FC troops are holding up quite well and are doing what needs to be done. The best thing that could have happened for the PA has happened and that is the wide support for the Army by the Pakistani public. While this campaign is a hard one, the Army is very focused on what needs to be done.

Honestly, the assessment is essentially a crude attempt at negative propaganda about the PA by the Indian Army. The fact of the matter is that Indian Army's own performance at CI has left much to be desired. Folks at Longwar and other sites that typically put down the PA and efforts on our side do so because they can never look past the fact that their interests are not the only ones to be safeguarded. Pakistan will do what is right for her and fight the battles that make the most sense for us (the other new recent propaganda has been about this CI campaign not serving US interests..oh well it never ends..).

 

[wtf]

India today claims that they have the entire intelligence briefing. How the heck did the whole document get leaked to the press? That'd be pretty daft if it was indeed a leak. I always figured that India today/ Headlines today was closer to BJP than Congress - so the leak if permitted by authorities is even more strange.

Does India today KNOW that they have the entire report or were they given to assume that they had the entire report ?Anyway, I'll add it to the list of sources to read. They are bound to say something more on this.

If we can track down the source of the US data, we might be able to peace the picture together better.

Mutiny in 3 Pak infantry brigades?: India Today - Latest Breaking News from India, World, Business, Cricket, Sports, Bollywood.

 

[muse]

Anyone fighting an insurgency will tell you that there are multiple phases. The first thing PA have done in Swat is to demolish the myth that Taliban are a threat to Pakistan's existence and that they cannot hold ground in the face of the PA in settled area. Remote areas of FATA are inaccessible and require patience

Lets also recognize the fact that this approach of letting people vacate Swat worked to PA's advantage greatly because the militants were not able to capitalize on the issue of collateral damage. I personally think that was the smartest thing done in this campaign despite the challenges with the IDPs down south in the country

Draining the Swamp -- See Lanka success for further elaboration. Earlier we said that PA COIN strategy is different from that used by U.S in the sense that U.S has the financial resources to inject into the effected areas and uses of mix of kinetic and financial incentives.

The operation in Swat is an unqualified success - see what Marines have to say about the operation -- now on to Waziristan -- here the danger is not so much military as much as it is political - interested readers are invited to view the statement of the Saudi Ambassador and of Liaqat Balouch of Jamaat Islami, as well as Im the dim, however; information operations should show no let up in exposing who and what the insurgents are and what their aim is.

 

[jeypore]

One other thing. While India today is estimating 900 troops who have deserted, one thing that may be unknown to India Today is that at least in the Khassadars, people go AWOL but then also come back, get punished and then get put back on duty. I suspect their tally is based on the reports in the various Pakistani newspapers over the past few years about FC/Khassadar troops deserting and they have tried to put a spin on it.

Maybe so, but looking at 12,0000 troops deployed and give and take pashtun in the army, possibly 3,600 total, out of that 900 is a feasible number.

The other major problem with the argument of how many talibans killed and desertion is all speculative, since there is no transparancy on the war. So even Mr. Am making an argument to Mr. Riggio is also speculative at best.

What is surprising to me atleast from previous statements from the GoP is that they did not have technological equipment to fight properly, especially when Zardari came to the state, that statement was reiterated sevaral times in different news media and interviews, yet shows a better performance currently. Maybe the COIN made a difference or not, who knows!!!