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Pakistani military facing tougher fight in northwest than reported

US intelligence officials told The Long War Journal the Indian assessment is "accurate."

The Indian assessment said that more than 370 soldiers have been killed and some soldiers have deserted since the operation against Mullah Fazlullah's Taliban forces in Swat, Dir, and Buner began almost two months ago. India Today put the number of soldiers that have deserted at more than 900.


The numbers cannot be confirmed as the military has conducted a virtual media blackout in the Swat Valley:rofl:

according to a classified intelligence briefing

Damm all we have to do is read indian newspapers where all indian armys clssified reports are posted:victory:


While the Indian assessment paints a bleak picture of the state of the Pakistani military

While the Indian a.s.s.e.s--***** paints a bleak picture of the state of the Pakistani military.
If its a indian report against pakistan from unanmed military and intelligence sources it must be true:cheers:


The fatwa, which was issued by Red Mosque leaders Maulana Abdul Aziz and Ghazi Abdul Rasheed, stated that Pakistani soldiers killed while fighting against the Taliban and al Qaeda in South Waziristan did not deserve a Muslim funeral or a burial at Muslim cemeteries. This fatwa had an impact on Pakistani soldiers and many refused to fight or abandoned their units.

It was pakistan army that carried out the action against these brothers some one should tell that to these unnamed sources whats the indian *****--ment about that.

I can go on and on but i think my intelligence levels are starting to fade as iam on the floor laughing at another classified intelligence reports iam reading in indian newspapers one said unknown general of indian army was kidnapped by Aliens from MARS its reported In unamed newspaper.:smitten::welcome:@ kookooLAND

AND These are the geniouses Americans wants to use against chinese :what:
 
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Maybe so, but looking at 12,0000 troops deployed and give and take pashtun in the army, possibly 3,600 total, out of that 900 is a feasible number.

The other major problem with the argument of how many talibans killed and desertion is all speculative, since there is no transparancy on the war. So even Mr. Am making an argument to Mr. Riggio is also speculative at best.

What is surprising to me atleast from previous statements from the GoP is that they did not have technological equipment to fight properly, especially when Zardari came to the state, that statement was reiterated sevaral times in different news media and interviews, yet shows a better performance currently. Maybe the COIN made a difference or not, who knows!!!

I dont know why u would think pashtuns would desert the army when they are the troops that must feel like they are fighting for their own people. This argument was definately valid with the intial half hearted ops in waziristan way back in 2004 but with the horrors of the taliban and remember alot of these troops are from ordinary families so pashtoonwali plays a huge part in their mentality and upbringing they cannot accept the disregard the taliban have from pashtoonwali and the horrific tales of what they did to the women once again the respect of women is an essential part of pashtoonwali which is traditionally secular. On this point i would like to also mention the thread here which the women talked of taliban raping young girls and then cutting their breasts off and burning and decapitating the males in the family this was done because it is unacceptable for a pashtoon man and is the ultimate humiliation this is something the taliban know all to well
 
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first of all bill reggio or longwarjournal.org is nothing but an anti pakistan blog /muslim allowed comments are the comments which are in favour of what owner of the blog belives.

secondly he will quote any thing which seconds his ideology and hate against pakistan so no need to bother

thirdly those who know Pakistan army, they laugh at this report and consider it a wishfull thinking on behalf of enemies of pakistan.

I read this report 3 days ago and gave a big laugh... how indians them selves have degraded them selves. If they have sane minds they should ban India today because the paper has done what no body els can do to prove the jocker mentality of indian media.

900 desertion...lol may be they were talking about indian army in kashmir or assam :D
 
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"Maybe so, but looking at 12,0000 troops deployed and give and take pashtun in the army, possibly 3,600 total, out of that 900 is a feasible number..."

Actually, 900 is a lot when it comes to regular Pakistan Army units. If I had to guess I'd say that 900 is a figure that can be attributed to span of this whole year (2009), and that too if we include the paramilitaries and police forces. The Indians obviously didn’t feel the need to qualify their ‘desertions of the Pakistan Army soldiers’ comments to include the militiamen of the FC, Khassadars, Levies, etc…who obviously cannot be expected to display the disciplinary integrity of the regular Pakistan Army.

They have named brigades they claimed hosted mutiny and a breakdown of command at some level, this is going to be hard to verify (for me atleast) but the fact that this whole report was supposed to be ‘secret’ and yet the particulars of the information was released in such a way makes the whole thing dubious.

The fact that the Indians have been looking closely at our operations (or claiming to at any rate) is no surprise to me. It’s been decades since our regular forces met head on and much has changed, they’d want to gauge our capability at all levels: operational, logistical and even check on the liaison with PAF. We were carefully watching Indian operations in Sri Lanka as well (much to our liking) but the crude way in which this supposedly important information was revealed makes me wonder if the Indian establishment is one whole elaborate PR stunt machine. This information, if credible, would’ve been important to the Indian high command but quite pointless if released to the press. I suppose it gives them the illusion of control or superiority over their hated rival, either way stuff like this would’ve been hungrily received and appreciated in India.
 
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It's interesting that LWJ and Roggio never question the suspect casualty figures for the taliban given by the US and NATO after each engagement. Their numbers of 20-30 taliban killed in each firefight are also estimates based on intelligence intercepts and other non-tangible evidence. No force, no matter how motivated could sustain a fight for any duration if each operation cost them deaths in the dozens and the taliban is no exception.
 
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I am posting this article which not only sheds light on refugee situation in Swat, but also quotes front line officers admitting covert support for militants so far.

New crisis in Swat valley as residents run out of food | World news | The Guardian

The refugees hurried down the deserted road in the searing midday heat, their suitcases clattering on the tank-scarred tarmac. Waving white flags, they crossed one ghostly village after another. Shuttered shops, destroyed buildings, stray dogs panting in the shade were all passed as the group veered around craters in the road.

A warplane hissed overhead, the crump of artillery shattered the silence. At a checkpoint nervy soldiers searched the group – about two dozen men, children and burkha-clad women – at gunpoint. "We have to get out," said Muhammad Tahir, a burly man sheltering under a black umbrella. "No food, no electricity, no gas – we can't take it any more."

Pakistan's army is winning the war in Swat, the tourist idyll turned Taliban fortress. After seven weeks of battle the militants have been driven from their strongholds.

The government says that total victory is imminent. But military success has come at a human price. More than one million people have fled Swat, according to revised government figures. And inside the valley, hidden from the world, a second crisis is brewing.

Tens of thousands of people – nobody is sure how many – have remained in Swat through the fighting, stuck between the army and militants and straining under a strict military curfew.

Last week the Guardian spent three days in Swat, slipping in through rough mountain roads controlled by neither Taliban nor army. The route was littered with the debris of war – a levelled mosque, white smoke billowing from the forests and a destroyed police station at the peak of a desolate mountain pass, blue uniforms strewn outside.

Inside Swat, where the curfew was in force, soldiers waved civilians off the road. But it was not applied in the fields, where farmers toiled furiously to save their crops from ruin.

"The fields cannot hold them any longer. We have to do it now," said Muhammad Sher, a squat man in a white turban who wrenched onions from his riverside plot. His 23-year-old nephew, Razaullah, lifted his shirt to reveal a shoulder wound.

"The army shot me during the curfew," he said. "No doctor was available so a neighbour extracted the bullet."

A jet fighter zipped overhead followed by an explosion that boomed across the valley. Sher Muhammad pointed across the flowing water. "Taliban territory," he said.

The river Swat is the frontline of the conflict. The army controls the east bank; the black-turbaned militants hold out on the far side.

But they are crumbling: the army captured several key villages this week. Before torching the school at Manyar, further up the valley, they left a glimpse of their mindset in the form of graffiti-scrawled blackboards. Childish drawings depicted helicopters, tanks, and crossed scimitars, the Taliban symbol. "The Pakistan army are queers," read one message.

The army estimates that 10-20% of the population remains in most villages. Life under curfew is increasingly difficult. No electricity means no fridges, no mobile phones, and no fans to still the summer heat. But, with shops closed or emptying, the most urgent need is food.

But the army is proud of its progress. On the edge of Mingora, the largest city in Swat, Lieutenant Colonel Aziz relaxed in a classroom of a school turned military base. His regimental flag was draped over a desk; sunlight streamed through a rocket hole in the wall. He laughed at the Taliban. "They're getting desperate. We hear them on the radio, cussing us as non-Muslims," he said.

Brigadier Javed Bukhari, who leads fighting in the southern part of Swat, arrived. "The will of the people was with us," he said.

Bukhari said his forces had killed about 100 Taliban fighters – a figure at variance with official claims of 1,300 deaths across the valley.

Both officers boasted of causing few civilian casualties. They were less kind to the Taliban. After sweeping through Nawagai village, soldiers flung the corpses of Taliban fighters on the road, where they were later eaten by dogs.

"We left the bodies there so people would get the message that these guys are not coming back," he said.

It was an apparent breach of the customary rules of war, which require combatants to "take all possible measures to prevent the dead from being despoiled".

But the Taliban leadership, guided by the cleric Maulana Fazlullah, remains at large. Some residents said they had fled to Afghanistan; many others said the insurgency would only end with their death.

Many Pakistanis point to the Taliban's sophistication – soldiers have discovered bomb manuals, chequebooks and bundles of dollars and euros – as evidence of the "foreign hand", a euphemism for everything from al-Qaida to Indian intelligence and the CIA.

But frontline officers admit it is also the result of Pakistan's flawed decades-old policy of covertly supporting Islamist groups. Asked if previously friendly "mujahideen" had fought in Swat, Aziz gave an unusually frank answer. "I've been dealing with them for four or five years," he said. "But to be honest, I didn't recognise any of the names when I came here."


The army is expected to ease the curfew shortly. Electricity has been restored in Mingora, where the defence minister, Ahmed Mukhtar, said some may return as early as tomorrow. But the peace is tentative.

The army expects the Taliban to slip back in civilian guise to launch a volley of fresh suicide attacks. So authorities are recruiting "community police" – armed civilians tasked with unmasking them.

The generals have already turned their attention to Waziristan, where an assault on the mountain domain of the Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud is imminent. "It's going to be a tough one," said Aziz.

In Swat the curfew continues. In Barikot, at the bottom of the valley, six men shuffled down the road carrying a rope bed and a groaning, cholera-stricken woman.

"We tried to find a doctor but there is none," said one of the bearers. "So the only thing is to take her home."
 
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I am posting this article which not only sheds light on refugee situation in Swat, but also quotes front line officers admitting covert support for militants so far.

That is a ludicrous contention - did you even read the part you highlighted, in your rush to post 'damning evidence of Pakistani support to militants'?

But frontline officers admit it is also the result of Pakistan's flawed decades-old policy of covertly supporting Islamist groups. Asked if previously friendly "mujahideen" had fought in Swat, Aziz gave an unusually frank answer. "I've been dealing with them for four or five years," he said. "But to be honest, I didn't recognise any of the names when I came here."

The references are to Pakistan's past policy of supporting the Taliban, and Lieutenant Colonel Aziz does not admit to covert support for the current militants. The PA, GoP and GoNWFP have all been dealing with the militants in FATA and Swat in various capacities - peace deals, ceasefires, hostage releases ....

To extrapolate 'covert support for militants' from that statement is really clutching at straws.
 
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The references are to Pakistan's past policy of supporting the Taliban, and Lieutenant Colonel Aziz does not admit to covert support for the current militants.

That is what I wanted to say.

And I also wanted to highlight the fact that Taliban leadership is still at large, making this a potentially long haul.
 
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That is what I wanted to say.

And I also wanted to highlight the fact that Taliban leadership is still at large, making this a potentially long haul.
So you should edit your original post where you say the army admitted covert support for them.
 
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Kasrkin;404328


this supposedly important information was revealed makes me wonder if the Indian establishment is one whole elaborate PR stunt machine.

Now this is the funny part, that the whole thread becomes a Indian bashing. First of all, Mr. Riggio is the person writting this article, and from his personal intelligence gathering from US, he finds that Indian intelligence matches. If you are looking for PR stunt, then that finger should be pointed at Mr. Riggio.
 
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Mr. Roggio's intelligence sources will 'match' whatever Pakistan bashing information he receives.

Did you not read my exchange with him? He is calling his senior military leadership (Gen. Conway and Gen. Petraeus) liars or woefully uninformed for their comments praising the Pakistani operations and successes.

Now this top leadership is informed by the whole plethora of US intelligence agencies and assets, and his 'source' is one such alleged intelligence agent - so who should we believe?

And if the top US military leadership is lying, then why should we believe Roggio's low level intelligence sources?
 
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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/28/world/asia/28swat.html?_r=2&hp

Taliban Losses Are No Sure Gain for Pakistanis

MARDAN, Pakistan — For the past month and a half, the Pakistani military has claimed success in retaking the Swat Valley from the Taliban, clawing back its own territory from insurgents who only a short time ago were extending their reach toward the heartland of the country.

Yet from a helicopter flying low over the valley last week, the low-rise buildings of Mingora, the largest city in Swat, now deserted and under a 24-hour curfew, appeared unscathed. In the surrounding countryside, farmers had harvested wheat and red onions on their unscarred land.

All that is testament to the fact that the Taliban mostly melted away without a major fight, possibly to return when the military withdraws or to fight elsewhere, military analysts say. About two million people have been displaced in Swat and the surrounding area as the military has carried out its campaign.
The reassertion of control over Swat has at least temporarily denied the militants a haven they coveted inside Pakistan proper. The offensive has also won strong support from the United States, which has urged Pakistan to engage the militants.


But the Taliban’s decision to scatter leaves the future of Swat, and Pakistan’s overall stability, under continued threat, military analysts and some politicians say.

The tentative results in Swat also do not bode well for the military’s new push in the far more treacherous terrain of South Waziristan, another insurgent stronghold, where officials have vowed to take on the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, Baitullah Mehsud, who remains Pakistan’s most wanted man.

Signs abound that the military’s campaign in Swat is less than decisive. The military extended its deadline for ending the campaign. Even in the areas where progress has been made, the military controls little more than urban centers and roads, say those who have fled the areas. The military has also failed to kill or capture even one top Taliban commander.

It was “very disappointing,” said Aftab Ahmed Sherpao, a senior politician from the region, that none of the commanders had been eliminated. It turned out, he said, that early reports of the capture of Ibn Amin, a particularly brutal commander from Matta, were incorrect.

Many Taliban fighters have infiltrated the camps set up for those displaced by the fighting and are likely to return with them to Swat, said Himayatullah Mayar, the mayor of Mardan, the city where many of the refugees are staying. “Most of the Taliban shaved their beards, and they are living here with their families,” he said.

As of two weeks ago, the police had arrested 150 people in the camps suspected of being members of the Taliban, Mr. Mayar said. This figure did not include suspects arrested by the Intelligence Bureau, Pakistan’s domestic intelligence outfit, and the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, the country’s main spy agency, he said.

Meanwhile, the government, led by President Asif Ali Zardari, has yet to announce a full plan for how it will provide services like courts, policing and health care that will allow the refugees to return home and the government to fully assert control.

Those plans appear to be mired in conflict and mutual suspicion between the military and the civilian government, raising serious questions about whether the authorities can secure Swat and other areas and keep them from being taken back by the Taliban, military experts said.

“I’ve told the president and the prime minister and the chief of the army this is the time to act. Just take basic things and implement them,” said Gen. Nadeem Ahmad, the commander of the Special Support Group, an arm of the Pakistani military that is providing temporary buildings and some food for the displaced. “This is not talking rocket science.”

On a notepad, General Ahmad had drawn a chart of the four elements of what he called “lasting peace.” They were good government; improved delivery of services, including rebuilt schools; speedy justice (something the Taliban had provided); and social equity.

He appeared to be skeptical that those aspects could be delivered within what he called an essential one-year time frame. He said he had warned the leaders: “If you don’t deliver, it will be trouble. You will come back and do the operation again.”

Having witnessed past episodes of deal-making with the Taliban, the people of Swat say they want tangible proof that the military is serious this time and that they will be safe if they return home. :what:

From the start, a rallying cry has been a demand that the army kill or capture Taliban leaders, a ruthless group of highly trained fighters, some with links to Al Qaeda. But the army has not been able to show any evidence that it killed any of the Taliban leaders.

The daily newspaper The News said in a recent editorial that unless Maulana Fazlullah, the Taliban’s main commander in Swat, and Mr. Mehsud, the country’s top enemy, were captured, “the Taliban are going to live to fight another day.”

Indeed, most of the damage from the recent fighting appears confined to small agricultural hamlets outside Mingora, according to interviews with displaced people. Some said they had heard from recent arrivals to the camps that areas 500 yards off the roads remained in control of the militants.

The “outlook was bleak” in Swat because the civilian government did not have the money or the skills to rebuild, said Shuja Nawaz, the author of a history of the Pakistani military and now the director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council in Washington.

Most of the two million displaced people are still living in tent camps and cramped quarters with relatives and even strangers, in cities as far flung as the southern port of Karachi.

Many displaced people were fed up with the cruelties inflicted under Taliban rule and have backed the military campaign. But as the fighting drags on in places, the mood among them grows increasingly despondent.

Some displaced people said that they were angry at the army for indiscriminate shelling in civilian areas. Others said they were confused about why the military operation was even necessary.

“We had no problem with the Taliban,” Umar Ali, a poultry trader from Qambar in Swat, said as he sat on the veranda of a home in Swabi, a town filled with displaced people. “We’re here because of the military shelling. I’m a trader, and the thing that affects my life is the curfew.”

Earlier Pakistani campaigns against the Taliban do not offer an encouraging precedent. In Bajaur, a part of the tribal areas, two main economic centers, the market towns of Loe Sam and Inayat Kalay, remain in ruins nearly eight months after the army smashed them in pursuit of the Taliban and claimed victory.
 
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I could not help but reply here after reading what passes for expert opinion from various sources.

Some like the nytimes are stating that there are no signs of major fighting and based on this they wholeheartedly claim that Taliban ran away and PA let them get away without a fight.
Conversely some like the guardian are stating that there are debris everywhere and the area reeks of death and destruction whereas PA has barbarically butchered the TTP (glad to know BTW).

I actually am amused a bit by this reporting and have become more confident of what the PA has been stating all along...precision strikes and careful use of heavy weapons...low kinetic actions in built up areas and highly kinetic actions and overwhelming use of force in remote areas....That is the reason you people will see different reports and instead of piecing them together and seeing the bigger picture... such reports are being used to malign PA and the lightning strike it achieved on many TTP strongholds.

Whom to trust?
Such superficial analysis of experts who have no real details available with them take precedence over the reports of the on ground troops which are easily rated as lies and propaganda...
What to call such a biased view?
In a nutshell there were no WMDs in Iraq so all of the US civil and military apparatus should be hanged for lying and starting a needless conflict...By same context i should trust no report from US or any of its think tanks and label them as lies coming from liars...
The fact that i choose not to is actually because it is stupid and arrogant to treat everything coming from other sources as lies without trying to understand the context, governing parameters and all associated reports.
Assessments can be right or wrong and in this case whereas certain assumptions can certainly miss the mark by a large margin...to ridicule all the PA claims as a farce is indeed a most immature behavior and done from a position of arrogance and deliberate bias against a foreign force.

You all saw the reaction after Lal Masjid. Now compare that with SWAT where despite much more people suffering from displacement we do not see the same anti operation reaction by the public...
I would say that since Gen Kayani has served as ISI chief he has come to understand the needs of the operation much better than anyone else and has been a major force in providing a new spirit to the PA...he has motivated the troops on the right channel and has focused on the key issues and liabilities in a really immaculate fashion which needs to be realized in the context of past perception of similar operations by entire nation...only once we do this can we really appreciate the actual worth of this operation and why it is a resounding success.
It is not that the media has not gone into SWAT...it is that everything has been closely coordinated with PA to ensure no hanky panky occurs...even then media claims are clashing with each other since every party adheres to certain set of opinion and is willing to propagate only those facts or aspects which suit their agenda.
Still it is a big change since many channels do report things in favor of operation as well.
Remember how the same media treated the Lal Masjid operation as a child killing operation by Army and actually turned all people against Musharraf?
The Army was not really to blame for what the Lal Masjid miscreants brought upon themselves but look how that route taken by GOP to let the media in ended up? A disaster!

Some claim that there are 900 desertions...and then quoted the 2004 botched operations of FC and Khassadars due to local opposition...
By god these experts would do well to differentiate between the levies and the Pakistan Army and at least try to understand the evolution of this war and PA and FC in particular for the past decade.
After all this whole COIN is actually nothing but a comprehensive strategy which is evolved by entering into actual combat and tailored to meet local requirements...it is not a course offered by some institutes which cater to the coin needs of armies all over the world...each Counter Insurgency effort will vary based on many variables.
It should be noted that previously the TTP alliances were of a tribal nature and when they started eliminating the tribal leadership of non cooperative tribes in order to create vacuum for themselves to fill in, that is the point when the locals started loathing them.
FC and especially the Khassadars are recruited from the tribes and operate locally so initially there were desertions when even tribal leaders were not in favor of operations ...even then 900 is a very very small figure considering the make up of the levies and paramilitary troops which were all local recruits and not regular troops...
make a note of desertions in all world conflicts involving the best of troops and then compare with unique nature of conflict and type of forces used prior to SWAT operation and it is actually still remarkable how even the FC held together despite the pressure...

Some claim that PA is lying through its teeth about the casualties which cannot be so high because after all it is PA and it is not to be trusted?
Is that what passes as military assessment and appraisal of operations?
Is PA a fluffy little bunny which cannot possibly shatter the supermen in the TTP ranks?

Why is it that all claims of PA against the TTP are suspect despite PA employing its finest troops (SSG) and using fighter jets/gunships in close air support role and also getting significant artillery support?

How many Al Qaeda men have been captured/killed by the other much better forces?
The percentage is very high in Pakistan's favor and despite certain botched up operations due to many non military constraints...PA has done well against the cream of the militants and it has done exceptionally well against the TTP in SWAT.
Regarding the leaders running away...they are terrorists and not warriors...US despite so many resources and assets could not capture Osama and any of his top aides during the offensive in Afghanistan so assuming that PA could capture the leaders within a few weeks is a bit too much really...

First you kill the enemy in numbers...then you protect the key areas via static defense and rigorously patrolling the territory to establish a complete defensive grid while at the same time challenging the insurgents ability to dominate the territory and wresting the control of land/population from their hands...
The leaders usually come at the end due to desertions and betrayals by their own comrades...it is always difficult to kill the leaders without some sort of friction within the insurgent ranks.
Slowly the TTP will start turning on itself when they are cornered... that is a natural thing and given time and effort will happen.

When the push comes to shove many well prepared and well equipped forces have botched up much more simple operations.
At this point in time to assail PA like this via unverified reports and assessments is quite a silly thing to do...
PA is still standing and fighting hard...if they had failed so miserably you would not see the TTP leadership crying for peace and becoming more and more desperate in their actions.
You would not see young officers of PA leading their troops from the front and performing feats of valor in the name of Pakistan if there was such a thing as mass desertions and infighting within the PA.
Like it or not, PA has taken on the TTP in the dreaded urban fighting combat scenario and handed them a tremendous thrashing...
To downplay the PA as a drama act when the author does not even agree with his own force commander's views regarding the PA offensive as authentic is quite a farce in my opinion.
 
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Just adding, if fatwa does matter alot then Pak army has enough fatwas against the terrorists. So now they are just doing what Islam has called for.
 
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Wait a minute? Why is India putting its big snot nose in other peoples business? Why doesn't India concentrate on the Maiost Militants, Khalistan, Harkat-ul-Mujahadeen etcetra which are resurfacing then criticizing on our PA.
Anyone who trusts Indian media is either an idiot or a big fan of "Sas Bhi Kabhi Bahoo Thi". It was Indian media that said Sufi Muhammad was dead, and they made it a breaking NEWS. I am from Swat and boy are those Militants getting their ar*es whooped by some nice shelling. Well heck even in my village 10-20 Taliban have been killed by the Army and my village is NOT a Taliban hotbed.
 
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