Pakistan will get New Air Defence system within this Year - CAS on ARY News .

[araz]

Really does depend on what exactly the ACM said during the interview, we are all guessing here, but if he really did say an "all 5th Gen fighter force" by 2047, then J-10 and JF-17 simply do not fit into that catagory.

A real long shot is that the new fighter we get is the FC-31 this year, as I so, BIG long shot but PAF has surprised us before.

By 2047 you can easily have a fleet of

200 F-C31
100 AZM

We will not need a like for like numbers replacment for Mirage/F-7 so fair to say PAF total force may reduce in squadron size to say around 14 squadrons, but this is no major issue considering IAF will be a 24-26 squadron force for the medium to long term anyway.

If however the ACM did not actually specify "all 5th Gen by 2047", then your summation seems emminantly feasable


Very very valid point

Can anyone summarize what the Air chief ACTUALLY said. The news third party is useless due to understanding of defence matters by our news gurus.
A

 

[Signalian]

Plus being vulnerable to sanctions and not to say US is unreliable and won't even release the helicopters that have been paid for

Even with these issues, PAF has still maintained a credible threat posture of F-16s.

 

[Akh1112]

It could be Russian Pantsir. In the past we had seen alot Of discussion on that system personally I am not a huge fan of it but I hope its anything but Pantsir.

It wont be Pantsir, Pakistan already has a plethora of SHORAD systems in service, there's no use for another.

Aside from this, SAMs are usually operated by the PA, this time its the PAF, in the past, operated the HQ-2, a longer ranged system, therefore, im gonna assume its another longer ranged SAM, along the lines of the HQ-9

 

[arjunk]

A real long shot is that the new fighter we get is the FC-31 this year,

India will get F-35 then. We cannot start an arms race.

 

[Dual Wielder]

More importantly, it will also most likely mean no more attendance of PAF at Red Flag and broader winding down of PAF/USAF interaction, which is sad in a way... despite all the mistrust, the PAF is what it is today because of USAF training and philosophy when it comes to airpower, let's not forget that.

Lets also reminisce on the hardships due to sanctions as well..

 

[imranyounus]

Going through the discussion it seems that 2047 time line is being taken as some sort of planned deadline.

If we take the third person account of conversation as true still we are missing out the point.

2047 is going to be 100th independence day. So what AC said is by the time Pakistan turns 100 yeas. The air force will be a 5 generation air force.

so in my person understanding it doesn't give you any specific time line. Rather gives an idea that by then PAF will have sufficient number of 5 Generation aircraft to say it is a full 5 generation air force.

Maybe there will still be a mix or maybe it will be all 5 g. but one thing is certain that PAF will get a 5th G much earlier than 2040. look at JF 17 for example. we started induction almost 10 years ago. but still are operating a huge size of Third generation aircraft. and it will take some time for training and other things. Furthermore As history shows it will be a more gradual induction taking more than 10 years to give you a true 5 generation air force. so say by 2047 PAF has 150 such aircraft to qualify for an operational 5th Generation air force. it would have taken around 10 to 15 years to achieve this target.

Another important aspect is project AZAM. Many people believe that after project AZAM PAF will not inducted another 5th Generation aircraft. This is saying as if after JF 17 we don't need another aircraft. but on ground facts say other things. a second aircraft is always in planning as it reduces your risks and enables diversification and gives more capabilities.

To conclude whole thing.

PAF will start induction of first 5 generation aircraft around 2030 and gradually increase the number and replace older aircraft. that is if things don't change for worse and india gets to say SU 57 or F 35 things might flow faster than planed.

Other thing is that we will definitely get J31 as second 5 generation aircraft because it will give PAF sufficient time and understanding before development of AZAM. and will also make AZAM more manageable as with 2 platforms requirements and capabilities of AZAM can be reduced. Where's if you are just looking at one platform it will have to be more versatile and capable for allround performance. effectively meaning a more complex and costly venture which we can't afford.

 

[The Raven]

Lets also reminisce on the hardships due to sanctions as well..

It was a double-edged sword, we saw the effects of US equipment and training in 65 and 71, and in Feb 2019. Of course, Pakistan was always free to change allegiances to the USSR for equipment and training, but the results would have been quite different.

 

[Goritoes]

Pantsir would most likely be used by Army units not Airforce and here statement has been made by PAF Chief not COAS.

True, Thanks for correcting me, so if not Pantsir then I am putting my money on HQ-9's, maybe Pakistan is already using them it's just that this year PAF will make it official, they did that a lot .

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Where on earth are people getting these ridiculous ideas from??? is what I want to know!!

CAS's own words are not available but even the 'original' source in this case (i.e. Arshad Sharif on ARY) does not say anything like that! So where is all this funny stuff coming from?

Really people on this forum have a heavy imagination of their own and an un-ending talent for plucking something out of thin air and then having pages upon pages of "discussion" about it!

The words on the ARY show (which is as near as we can get to an original source on this) were: "PAF will be a 5th Generation Air force by 2047". Notice the missing word (all)??

Of course these may not even be the CAS's exact words for all we know. But even going by these words it only says that PAF will have all aspacts of that capability operational by that time (or earlier). It does not imply there will be nothing 4th or 4.5th generation anymore or that all of that will be thrown away by 2047. SO WHAT IS THE POINT OF THIS DISCUSSION THEN?? ZERO!

I ask you guys can we say TODAY that the USAF is a 5th generation air force or not? I think yes we can, since they have multiple assets that qualify them for that. And that being so, do they not have 4/4.5th gen assets also? loads of them?

So now you guys know what the CAS said. OK so end of discussion on "all 5th gen".

Exactly well explained. Having multiple fighter squads of 5th generation planes doesn't mean that there will be no 4/4.5 generation supporting squads. Country like Pakistan, with tight financial budget, will try to keep some of the latest f16s currently in the fleet by 2047 and beyond (for e.g block 52s) which may very well be updated to V standards by that time. Similarly JF17 block 3 s will be there too so as 'some new fighter plane', if acquired. Retired planes will be F16s A/B/C , JF17 block 1 & 2, and lastly, Mirages and F7s, would have been long gone perhaps in this decade.

To summarize the point, PAF NG fighter plane will likely to replace F16s of earlier versions and JF17 block 1&2 (as it has been said that block 1 and 2 can't be updated to block 3 standards especially block 1). This may start from the year 2040 and also this makes up around 130+ planes itself. Where as current fleet of Mirages and F7PGs will be replaced by JF 17 Block 3 through out 2020s. Addition of J10Cs and new F16s can happen every now and then during this timeline 2021-2035 but in my opinion in limited numbers to fill the stop gap and especially if India proceeds with more advance planes during the same period as well.

 

[Yasser76]

India will get F-35 then. We cannot start an arms race.

Pricing and politics means an Indian F-35 buy is a long shot, especially if they get S-400

Where on earth are people getting these ridiculous ideas from??? is what I want to know!!

CAS's own words are not available but even the 'original' source in this case (i.e. Arshad Sharif on ARY) does not say anything like that! So where is all this funny stuff coming from?

Really people on this forum have a heavy imagination of their own and an un-ending talent for plucking something out of thin air and then having pages upon pages of "discussion" about it!

The words on the ARY show (which is as near as we can get to an original source on this) were: "PAF will be a 5th Generation Air force by 2047". Notice the missing word (all)??

Of course these may not even be the CAS's exact words for all we know. But even going by these words it only says that PAF will have all aspacts of that capability operational by that time (or earlier). It does not imply there will be nothing 4th or 4.5th generation anymore or that all of that will be thrown away by 2047. SO WHAT IS THE POINT OF THIS DISCUSSION THEN?? ZERO!

I ask you guys can we say TODAY that the USAF is a 5th generation air force or not? I think yes we can, since they have multiple assets that qualify them for that. And that being so, do they not have 4/4.5th gen assets also? loads of them?

So now you guys know what the CAS said. OK so end of discussion on "all 5th gen".

Agree, we are going by hearsay, will have to wait till he gives a proper interview or statement on retirement like CNS did

 

[IceCold]

A hard truth is a hard truth even if spoken by a tout.

This so called hard truth is only half the picture. Your politicians also share half of the blame who were in bed with the army, inviting themselves to overthrow governments. Let us not go there.

 

[Neurath]

The PAF was eventually going to turn into an all Eastern airforce at some point after the Vipers are retired, it's not as if any future western platform like the F-35 was in contention, and the window for Typhoon and Rafales has long closed. The only question is when. More importantly, it will also most likely mean no more attendance of PAF at Red Flag and broader winding down of PAF/USAF interaction, which is sad in a way... despite all the mistrust, the PAF is what it is today because of USAF training and philosophy when it comes to airpower, let's not forget that.

Arey bas bhi karo. Rulao ge kya?

 

[The Eagle]

For the sake of gloating for 5-7 years, I hope the PAF signed a huge multi-billion-dollar deal with Leonardo (i.e., Italy and the UK) for: 18~24 Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 3s, Aster 30 SAMP/T, CAMM-ER, M-346 LIFT, and various high-level and low-level / gap-filler radars.

Let's pull an Egypt.

It sounds reckless, but the "perception" of such a deal carries exponentially more weight than anything we'd get from China (not including SSBNs, ICBMs, HGVs, etc). The media in both India and Pakistan will be fixated on the flashiness and, perhaps, that might in a weird way work as a deterrence. The enemy that fears you a bit too much is as valuable as one that recklessly underestimates you.

The cost is high from a fiscal standpoint, but with smart negotiating and vision, the economics can still work out.

One can drive a $10 B package with a 50% offset -- i.e., $5 B -- that involves the OEMs setting-up MRO in Pakistan and sourcing work from the Pakistani private sector. That latter component may keep our talent in Pakistan (by giving them great STEM jobs) while boosting our domestic R&D base (in support of Project AZM). Those entities could end up exporting other products and services, thereby resulting in an overall net-positive economic effect.

Just from the meeting point of view, British Ambassador calls upon COAS & other officials more often than any representative of different nation. Italian officials are on second in this aspect. It was discussed here on the Forum, may be couple of months ago.

 

[Yasser76]

Just from the meeting point of view, British Ambassador calls upon COAS & other officials more often than any representative of different nation. Italian officials are on second in this aspect. It was discussed here on the Forum, may be couple of months ago.

UK still very much weary of Indian concerns and chasing a trade deal with them, but generally relations between armed forces of UK and Pak have been and continue to be excellent, especially in the field of training and exchanges. Big ticket items from them will remain difficult I feel as much equipment has UK content and many of their big players have US mil as clients.

Rolls Royce of course make some of the best military and civil engines in the world.

 

[waz]

UK still very much weary of Indian concerns and chasing a trade deal with them, but generally relations between armed forces of UK and Pak have been and continue to be excellent, especially in the field of training and exchanges. Big ticket items from them will remain difficult I feel as much equipment has UK content and many of their big players have US mil as clients.

Rolls Royce of course make some of the best military and civil engines in the world.

The trade deal with India isn't important, especially with the UK signing up to CPTPP and other agreements, and it certainly won't impact arms sales.
The UK has offered sales of top line equipment many times to Pakistan, including the EFT several times. Sadly cash was the problem.
UK and Pakistan military ties are strong.

Just from the meeting point of view, British Ambassador calls upon COAS & other officials more often than any representative of different nation. Italian officials are on second in this aspect. It was discussed here on the Forum, may be couple of months ago.

Yes the UK and Italy are to be looked at if Pakistan wants Western built weapons.

For the sake of gloating for 5-7 years, I hope the PAF signed a huge multi-billion-dollar deal with Leonardo (i.e., Italy and the UK) for: 18~24 Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 3s, Aster 30 SAMP/T, CAMM-ER, M-346 LIFT, and various high-level and low-level / gap-filler radars.

Let's pull an Egypt.

It sounds reckless, but the "perception" of such a deal carries exponentially more weight than anything we'd get from China (not including SSBNs, ICBMs, HGVs, etc). The media in both India and Pakistan will be fixated on the flashiness and, perhaps, that might in a weird way work as a deterrence. The enemy that fears you a bit too much is as valuable as one that recklessly underestimates you.

The cost is high from a fiscal standpoint, but with smart negotiating and vision, the economics can still work out.

One can drive a $10 B package with a 50% offset -- i.e., $5 B -- that involves the OEMs setting-up MRO in Pakistan and sourcing work from the Pakistani private sector. That latter component may keep our talent in Pakistan (by giving them great STEM jobs) while boosting our domestic R&D base (in support of Project AZM). Those entities could end up exporting other products and services, thereby resulting in an overall net-positive economic effect.

Damn bro you read my wishful mind, it certainly is possible aside the Aster-30, the French will block it and it could drive the forces for many years.