Pakistan to export nuclear reactors?

[EpiiC]

Hualong One is the best, excuse my patriotism my friend! Well in my true opinion first I will eliminate Areva-EPR cos the results in Finland and France are obviously self-explanatory, then AP1000 (Toshiba-Westinghouse) for delays in China/US are also quite annoying, APR1400 (KHNP) seems so far so good in UAE. Still the best choice is Hualong One (CGN) which is the latest tech, and has already been implemented smoothly in China, I do believe such successful implementation can be replicated in new markets.

The one in Finland got delayed and each year delayed adds $1B to cost..... but Tot its the biggest ? What about Gen 4 Reactors?

 

[Hassan Guy]

Good Idea, we should do that.

But first get nuclear reactors powering our subs.

 

[Shotgunner51]

The one in Finland got delayed and each year delayed adds $1B to cost..... but Tot its the biggest ? What about Gen 4 Reactors?

Yes that's the Areva problem, see these extracts from FT about their concern on Areva/EDF:

• Other attempts to build an EPR plant have also run into trouble. A project by the French group Areva in Finland is decade late and more than €5bn over budget, causing the collapse of the company earlier this year. Hinkley Point C may be the last chance for EDF to prove that the EPR is viable and to win further orders.
• Critics of the Hinkley Point deal within EDF say that while the project has potential benefits, it also carries great risks. They worry about the risk of another difficult construction programme when the company already has a stretched balance sheet. The chief financial officer of the company, Thomas Piquemal, resigned earlier this year because of concerns that if the construction goes wrong it could end up destroying the company. EDF’s €37bn of net debt dwarfs its €22bn market capitalisation. It faces an estimated €55bn bill in the coming decade just to increase the life expectancy of the 58 nuclear power stations from their current 40 years to 50. It also has to rescue its rival Areva, buying the majority of its €2.5bn reactor business. Some fear that the £18bn Hinkley Point deal, while making up only around 15 per cent of their capital expenditure a year for 10 years, will be the final straw.
• Gérard Magnin, one of France’s state representatives on the board, resigned last month over these very concerns. “Let us hope that Hinkley Point will not drag EDF into the same abyss as Areva,” said in his resignation letter.
• “Given the project history of the EPR technology, market confidence in HPC being built on time/on budget, and therefore create shareholder value, is understandably low,” said Ahmed Farman, analyst at Jefferies.

https://defence.pk/threads/chinas-overseas-nuclear-projects.449513/#ixzz4WVC7d7lV
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/78f1702a-79b7-11e6-97ae-647294649b28.html#axzz4KRLUx2AL​

Reactor output alone is not a key indicator, cos usually a power plant uses a couple of reactors anyway. Safety, efficiency, stability/reliability, cost of building, cost of operation, perhaps even dimensions/weights, are far more important criteria. For next gen or G-IV, I don't know yet, among many techs China is exploring, one is High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor Technology:

https://defence.pk/threads/china-is...-air-with-htr-pm-success.463381/#post-8954871​

 

[EpiiC]

Yes that's the problem, see these extracts from FT:

• Other attempts to build an EPR plant have also run into trouble. A project by the French group Areva in Finland is decade late and more than €5bn over budget, causing the collapse of the company earlier this year. Hinkley Point C may be the last chance for EDF to prove that the EPR is viable and to win further orders.
• Critics of the Hinkley Point deal within EDF say that while the project has potential benefits, it also carries great risks. They worry about the risk of another difficult construction programme when the company already has a stretched balance sheet. The chief financial officer of the company, Thomas Piquemal, resigned earlier this year because of concerns that if the construction goes wrong it could end up destroying the company. EDF’s €37bn of net debt dwarfs its €22bn market capitalisation. It faces an estimated €55bn bill in the coming decade just to increase the life expectancy of the 58 nuclear power stations from their current 40 years to 50. It also has to rescue its rival Areva, buying the majority of its €2.5bn reactor business. Some fear that the £18bn Hinkley Point deal, while making up only around 15 per cent of their capital expenditure a year for 10 years, will be the final straw.
• Gérard Magnin, one of France’s state representatives on the board, resigned last month over these very concerns. “Let us hope that Hinkley Point will not drag EDF into the same abyss as Areva,” said in his resignation letter.
• “Given the project history of the EPR technology, market confidence in HPC being built on time/on budget, and therefore create shareholder value, is understandably low,” said Ahmed Farman, analyst at Jefferies.

https://defence.pk/threads/chinas-overseas-nuclear-projects.449513/#ixzz4WVC7d7lV
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/78f1702a-79b7-11e6-97ae-647294649b28.html#axzz4KRLUx2AL​

Reactor output alone is not a key indicator, usually plants use a couple of reactors. Safety, efficiency, cost-effectiveness, are far more important criteria. For next gen or G-IV, I don't know yet, one tech China is exploring is High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor Technology:

https://defence.pk/threads/china-is...-air-with-htr-pm-success.463381/#post-8954871​

Nice, China and KSA singned nuclear cooperation agreement and China could provide them few reactors, Suadis are planning 16 reactors, China can give them 4 Hualong reactors? Plus China is more cheaper which will attract more buyers, ala Pakistan.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Thanks for your answers guys.

This made me sad as a Turk. Pakistan had a lucky head-start in the nuclear technology field and now has a golden opportunity to capitalize on it by exporting commercial services to the rest of the Islamic world (starting with Turkey and S.A.) and beyond. It doesn't need the be the cutting edge stuff so long as it's cost-effective and a good value for the customer. It also doesn't have to be reactors and complete powerplants in the beginning. It can start with academic training programs, certification, it can sell uranium, heavy water, fuel rods, canisters, reactor parts, buy back spent fuel for recycling, offer safe storage services, sky's the limit.

What exactltly is holding Pakistan back from joining the IAEA, NSG, NPT, ant whatever other relevant organization is necessary to join to make it possible to become active commercially?

Why not partner up with China? With Canada? With Russia? Why not incorporate joint companies with theirs and gain from experience to one day go fully independent?

Turkey's spending $22+ billion on the Akuyu NPP, a lot of which is going to Russia. We would've really liked it if at least some of that went to Pakistan, even as subcontractors.

Its not that easy. The last time we tried to "share" our know how, the "brotherly" countries spilled the beans when push come shove. Pakistani older generation centrifuges the P1, and P2, were found in Iranian facilities. Goes without saying, it caused us plenty of grief, and on the other side, Gaddafi end up losing his life and screwing up Libya.

Nuclear technology is something which west will not tolerate speading among muslim countries. Pakistan is big and ugly enough to face the consequences of proliferation, question is, are there any countries in muslim world who can stand tall and face the consequences which will follow of any such cooperation? Examples of Iran and Libya left with much to be desired. In Pakistan, there is a general consensus that Allah give this burden of ultimate power to carry on our shoulder, alone.

 

[Pax Ottomana]

Its not that easy. The last time we tried to "share" our know how, the "brotherly" countries spilled the beans when push come shove. Pakistani older generation centrifuges the P1, and P2, were found in Iranian facilities. Goes without saying, it caused us plenty of grief, and on the other side, Gaddafi end up losing his life and screwing up Libya.

Nuclear technology is something which west will not tolerate speading among muslim countries. Pakistan is big and ugly enough to face the consequences of proliferation, question is, are there any countries in muslim world who can stand tall and face the consequences which will follow of any such cooperation? Examples of Iran and Libya left with much to be desired. In Pakistan, there is a general consensus that Allah give this burden of ultimate power to carry on our shoulder, alone.

We're talking about purely civilian, peaceful, commercial reactors and other services related to the nuclear energy industry. This is not about helping other Muslim countries enrich Uranium or develop nuclear weapons. Pakistan, as the most experienced Muslim country in the nuclear technology arena, seems to be simply missing out on a lot of export opportunities. If not as prime contractors, than definitely as sub-contractors working along with Chinese, Japanese, Russian and Canadian prime contractors.

Turkey is currently building four reactors with Russia (Akkuyu NPP), another set of four reactors (Sinop NPP) has been projected and already tendered off to a French/Japanese consortium, and a 3rd set of four are planned for tendering 2020-2030. I know Saudi Arabia is also on the path to going nuclear (civilian). Not sure about S.A. but any foreign consortium with Pakistani companies involved would be preferable by Turkey.

Then again, it doesn't even have to be complete eactors. There are so many other services that Pakistani companies can offer regarding civilian nuclear power; from training to maintenance to fuel recycling to disposal.

I'm sorry. I don't mean to bash Pakistan or anything like that. As a Turk I view Pakistan as a second homeland. I just can't seem to be able to wrap my head around as to why Pakistan has been so inactive in the civilian nuclear energy market, despite having had the underlying technology for nearly 50 years.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

We're talking about purely civilian, peaceful, commercial reactors and other services related to the nuclear energy industry. This is not about helping other Muslim countries enrich Uranium or develop nuclear weapons. Pakistan, as the most experienced Muslim country in the nuclear technology arena, seems to be simply missing out on a lot of export opportunities. If not as prime contractors, than definitely as sub-contractors working along with Chinese, Japanese, Russian and Canadian prime contractors.

Turkey is currently building four reactors with Russia (Akkuyu NPP), another set of four reactors (Sinop NPP) has been projected and already tendered off to a French/Japanese consortium, and a 3rd set of four are planned for tendering 2020-2030. I know Saudi Arabia is also on the path to going nuclear (civilian). Not sure about S.A. but any foreign consortium with Pakistani companies involved would be preferable by Turkey.

Then again, it doesn't even have to be complete eactors. There are so many other services that Pakistani companies can offer regarding civilian nuclear power; from training to maintenance to fuel recycling to disposal.

I'm sorry. I don't mean to bash Pakistan or anything like that. As a Turk I view Pakistan as a second homeland. I just can't seem to be able to wrap my head around as to why Pakistan has been so inactive in the civilian nuclear energy market, despite having had the underlying technology for nearly 50 years.

I understand where you coming from. My understanding is, in whole nuclear cycle, the indeginous production of fissile material, enrich uranium and plutonium, is the most difficult and sought after/gaurded technology by the nations who posses them. This is the area we excel in. From older and patient gas centrifuges we are now making laser enrichment of uranium. Perhaps we can help with the fuel (uranium and plutonium). BUT, the truth of the matter it, West will always be biased against us because we are "Islamic" Republic of Pakistan. Let's be honest, Pakistan will never be let into groups like NSG which allows the trade of nuclear related stuff. We have upset a lot of western countries in pursuit of our nuke program. Some machnism Outside the established ones needs to be worked on if Pakistan has to help countries like Turkey, even if it is in civilian side of nuclear trade.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Nice, China and KSA singned nuclear cooperation agreement and China could provide them few reactors, Suadis are planning 16 reactors, China can give them 4 Hualong reactors? Plus China is more cheaper which will attract more buyers, ala Pakistan.

Saudi's case is very competitive, 16 reactors, definitely Gen-III, contestants are likely to be these four: Toshiba-Westinghouse with their widely used AP1000, Rosatom has good experience in the region (Iran), KHNP's APR1400 has good demonstration effect in UAE, and Hualong One as latest tech.

For Pakistan, next phase (Gen-III) planned should be Hualong One, I believe Pakistani manufacturers will progressively increase presence in the supply chain. Both CGN and CNNC are pursuing Hualong One overseas plans, CGN is processing with Britain, Thailand and Kenya, while CNNC is in co-planning with Pakistan and Argentina.

 

[Hamza913]

You need to be a full member of NSG to export civilian nuclear reactors/materials/spare parts and sundry equipment legally.

Keyword being legally.

 

[banvanaxl]

Keyword being legally.

You would know!

 

[Hamza913]

You would know!

Of course.

 

[Tiger Awan]

I'm sorry. I don't mean to bash Pakistan or anything like that. As a Turk I view Pakistan as a second homeland. I just can't seem to be able to wrap my head around as to why Pakistan has been so inactive in the civilian nuclear energy market, despite having had the underlying technology for nearly 50 years.

and Pakistanis view Turkey as a second homeland

The problem with Pakistan is Finances. First Nuclear Power Plant started working in 1972 (KANUPP-1). 2 years later India had its Nuclear Test. Canada showed reservation regarding Pakistan being a non-signatory of NPT and said that if Pakistan doesn't sign NPT and promise to not reply Indian aggression with its own Nuclear test we will stop all the support of KANUPP-1. Pakistan naturally declined and the maintenance agreement with Canada was terminated. Now the bulk of the money was already being directed towards Nuclear Bomb, whatever was left was used to keep KANUPP-1 running and it was one hell of a job. This delayed new Nuclear Power Plants and second one was commissioned in 1998 (26 years after first one). Same is the case with Fuel Reprocessing Plants. We had a contract with France but due to USA pressure the contract was terminated and Pakistan had to develop the technology on its own (which we did).

Right now there are 2 Nuclear Power plants under construction and both are 100% financed by China. We can setup huge industries that can built a Nuclear power plant but if there is no one to buy from (again due to NPT we cant sell our Nuclear Power Plant) and there are not enough local projects (govt doesnt have the money) all the effort will be a total waste and this is the reason Pakistan is inactive in Civilian Nuclear Energy market

 

[Shotgunner51]

https://defence.pk/threads/china-decides-against-taking-stake-in-areva.476679/#post-9182673

 

[EndangeredSpecies]

I did not include it, because it capitalizes on the nuclear materials and technologies , it does not export power plants as far as I know it has never been in a bid anywhere for power plant nuclear reactors..

A little country called Japan imported reactors from them. Heard of Westinghouse? They produced reactors.

 

[The SC]

A little country called Japan imported reactors from them. Heard of Westinghouse? They produced reactors.

Yes a lot of research reactors, Westinghouse is old news and Japan was like a US state then..