Pakistan Russia set to make history in Moscow next week

[farok84]

Yes, I agree. Whether we like it or not USA's shadow as a superpower will remain on the region for decades to come. You can see the new emerging giant China taking steps forward very causiosly. They have the fell of American pulse better then anybody as they are the ones who are rolling back US influence - not Russians who are essentially a spent power living off the past Soviet glory and Arab style oil/gas lottery.

Given this reality and US hostility toward Iran I struggle to see how Russians could pull this off. Like anything related to Iran US pressure will snuff it. It could set of a chain as follows. Americans get pissed off about Iran gas being exported [they are trying to strangle Iranian economy] and even more so consider Russians doing this in the Persuan Gul as poking them in the eye. Simultanously Saudi's/GCC take exception against Russian/Iranian project for obvious reasons, Next thing the good old US/Saudi alliance begins it's drive to scuttle this project and they would succeed doing so.

I mean taken from a purely economic POV the easiest way to tap Iranian gas for Pakistan and cheapest would be connect to Iranian IGAT 7 - 9 pipeline on the Balochistan border. I mean one of the largest gas reserves is literally waiting for Pakistan few miles [70miles?] west of Gwadar on the Iranian border. Why has China not just built a connection their and sorted out the entire Pakstan issues around energy? Because China does not feel it can afford a tussle with USA.

1979 was a disater not only for Iran but for Pakistan also. I read that IGAT 1 pipeline was cobstructed by a European consortium back in mid 1970s with intention to supply all of Europe with Iranian gas. Countries like France, Germany etc would have been fed Iranian gas and Pakistan would of course get gas from IGAT 7. Then came the Iranian revolution in 1979 and everything has been frozen since. Iran would have been a energy superpower and Pakistan would have had a huge prosperous market right next door including endless supply of cheap energy.

All dashed because of the collision between Iranian ego and US imperial hubris.

If the US sanctions were a factor, this MOU should have never been signed on the first place. Apart from Iran, Gazprom is also sanctioned by US.

There is a method to this madness. IGAT-7, till the constructed end, is operational and is transporting South Pars gas from Asalouyeh processing units. Iran plans to extend this to South and ultimately to Oman via a node near Chahabar. It is likely to become the same node from where Gazprom plans to initiate it's pipeline(s). Now, from Gazprom POV, if they can secure a similar deal with Indians, the Pakistan part of the project (which at most will be 100km) will get covered without costing them much. For, Pakistan they will have a pipeline to their shores, ready to supply them with much needed gas. It's a win-win scenario for both. This seems to be rationale behind this MOU. On face value and isolated, the project seemed impractical with no economical outcome but let's be patient, let Russians complete their study, it is them who are going to spend their money and stand to loose all, at the most we will be loosing the gas that we are not getting from IP anyway. If nothing the failure of this study might convince Gazprom or other players to build the remaining of IP. In meantime, let's focus on figuring that method(s) out than consuming our energy, discussing the madness.

We may have another player in future - China. They have acquired Total's shares, that too after resumption of sanctions on Iran, and have secured 80% of all shares of South Pars Phase 11 development few months ago, although CNPC will be dealing with condensates and LNG, it opens South Pars to their investments and interest, and maybe one day this LNG will find way to Pakistan, either for our own market or for transportation to China itself (it's funny how all these LNGs are from the same source but with different operators).

The other offshore fields Gazprom plan to develop in Persian gulf are; North Pars, Farzad A & B - apart from it's own gas, Russia will have to find customers for these too, in near future.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

This seems to be rationale behind this MOU.

I see where your coming from but India will not agree. With twin effects of USA pressure and potential Pakistani control over the flow through it's EEZ this would make it very difficult for India to accept. This is within the present realities. Who knows about the future - in particular if things changed drastically. Let's see how this plays out. By the way if MOU's were anything but MOU's by now Pakistan should have been getting cheap Iranian oil from the Iranian tap on the border near Gwadar. Not long ago everybody was talking about it.

Ps. Are you of Iranian extraction?

 

[farok84]

Ps. Are you of Iranian extraction?

No, I am not. Very much a Pakistani and a Canadian.

 

[farok84]

I see where your coming from but India will not agree. With twin effects of USA pressure and potential Pakistani control over the flow through it's EEZ this would make it very difficult for India to accept. This is within the present realities. Who knows about the future - in particular if things changed drastically. Let's see how this plays out. By the way if MOU's were anything but MOU's by now Pakistan should have been getting cheap Iranian oil from the Iranian tap on the border near Gwadar. Not long ago everybody was talking about it.

Ps. Are you of Iranian extraction?

They are likely going to circumvent Pakistan's EEZ and extended EEZ and avoid it altogether, and continue in international waters. Another option will be from Oman's Ras Madrakah to Mumbai. It all depends on how Gazprom present their case. India needs this gas, and it's likely the cheapest they gonna find, even after avoiding all of our EEZ. If they budge to US pressure, then they will piss off Russia and Iran and will be deemed an unreliable partner, enforcing the view of it to be firmly in US camp. In any case this is good, very good for Pakistan.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

They are likely going to circumvent Pakistan's EEZ and extended EEZ and avoid it altogether

Easy on paper. Reality is to do that the distance is huge and ocean floor depths make it prohibitively expensive and difficult.

they will piss off Russia and Iran and will be deemed an unreliable partner

Bird in hand is better then two in bush. India would dump Russia and Iran to keep USA. And so it should. It makes 100% sense.

 

[rizhussain44]

They are likely going to circumvent Pakistan's EEZ and extended EEZ and avoid it altogether, and continue in international waters. Another option will be from Oman's Ras Madrakah to Mumbai. It all depends on how Gazprom present their case. India needs this gas, and it's likely the cheapest they gonna find, even after avoiding all of our EEZ. If they budge to US pressure, then they will piss off Russia and Iran and will be deemed an unreliable partner, enforcing the view of it to be firmly in US camp. In any case this is good, very good for Pakistan.

Won’t be possible (feasibility wise) to avoid passing through Pak’s EEZ

 

[farok84]

Won’t be possible (feasibility wise) to avoid passing through Pak’s EEZ

Indian markets cannot solely rely on LNG. LNG contracts are indexed with crude oil, higher the crude oil prices, costlier will be the LNG price India pays. Arguably, South Asian Gas Enterprises (SAGE), a leading private consortium on this project, are pitching very compelling arguments that this project is indeed feasible both technically and economically. There was a conference in Gujrat this March, where they presented the benefits of such a project to India and have re-configured routes to mitigate Pakistan's extended EEZ. They have been working on it for few years and have roped in few international partners.

So, in my view, it will all depend on how Gazprom present their case, and how they plan to avoid Pakistan's EEZ. They can partner with SAGE, and continue to build on their studies, they are actually now conducting Front End Engineering Design after completing feasibility studies, reconnaissance and detailed surveys. Gazprom will do well partnering them.