Pakistan - Power Sector and its Future (discuss)

[Shah01]

There are a number of discussions on the current shortfall of power generation. I think everyone know about the reasons behind this but I will list a few of them:

• Subsidy from the Government
• Line losses
• Theft
• Bill Collection shortfall

Rather than pointing fingers at people to blame someone for the current situation I am going to try to look at how to solve it in the present as well for future generations. I have done some research and modelled some numbers. The aim of this exercise is to look at the cost of setting up power generation infrastructure as well as the cost of generating electricity in the long run taking into account of population and energy growth. The data has been taken from various websites as well my own estimate on a spreadsheet model.
I have made a few assumptions and they will remain same for the whole analysis.

• The population of Pakistan is 189 million in 2015 which will increase to 360 million by 2055.
• The electricity use per capita is assumed to be 800 kWh (well above the 450 kWh from WB records) in 2015 which will increase to 5630 kWh in 2055 (5% increase every year).
• Capacity factors for Gas, Petroleum and Coal is 70%, Nuclear is 90% and Hydro is 50%.
• Assumed to have the energy mix: Gas (30%), Coal (30%), Oil (10%), Nuclear (15%), and Hydro (15%).
• Decentralized power production with the option of Co/Trigeneration.
• Thermal efficiency of 80%. This 80% is further divided into two components; power and cooling/heating where power element is 55% and cooling/heating element is 25%.

In my opinion the best way to produce energy going forward would be to use Cogeneration or trigeneration technologies. I prefer trigeneration as it will have many uses in Pakistan due to its hot climate as well as being an agricultural country. The aim should be to decentralise the grid and save energy/resources by greater efficiencies. I purpose to set-up one/several power plants in every city/district. Furthermore setup cold storages and food processing industries beside these power plants. This will ensure that the cooling/heating from the power plants can either be used for processing raw materials or cold storage of fruit/veg. Pakistan produces fruits/vegetables in vast quantities. Potato production is around 2.6 million tonnes and fruits/vegetables is around 13.7 million tonnes every year. At the moment Punjab has majority of the cold storage facilities and about 500 of these are dotted around the province.
I have assumed the following energy generation sources for this exercise. I can look at other sources but it will make the analysis a bit more complex. If we keep Hydro at 15% then we will need an installed capacity of about 70 gigawatt (GW) by the end of 2055. This figure is above the full potential of Hydro in Pakistan (POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGIES IN PAKISTAN). This can be adjusted by including wind and solar power into the mix. I can include them if members wish to…

The cost of setting up the above energy mix starting in 2015. This takes account of our current generation capacity. Setting up Coal and Nuclear power plants is most expensive followed by Hydro and Gas. I have assumed that a Gas/Petroleum power plant will cost $1025/kW, Coal Plant $3000/kW, Nuclear $5530/kW and Hydro $3000/kW. Please let me know if these look higher.

The cost of generating electricity from the different sources would be as per the chart below. The prices are not adjusted for inflation or any other economic factors. I have tried to get the latest prices so with time the cost will increase from various fossil fuels so expect an increase in cost of generating electricity.

The population compared to its need for energy over time.

Production of electricity from different sources.

I can do further analysis on how much waste heat can be utilised for industries which need heat/steam and cold storage. By utilising the waste heat it will save precious energy source, reduce carbon emissions and save money which can be invested in other things.
I hope the above estimates have given an idea of how big of a problem this is and will not be solved in the foreseeable future. I have a few points/questions:

• How to implement a strategy which will ensure that every year generation capacity is increased.
• Maintenance of the existing infrastructure.
• Decentralised generation will minimise line losses.
• How to eliminate/reduce theft?
• How to increase bill collection?
• Setup industry to build gas turbines/steam turbines. Possibly have a joint venture with an international company with technology transfer.

I am happy to discuss and incorporate suggestions into the model to refine it. I hope I have given an appropriate title.

Further reading. Example calculations for different power plants:
http://sustainable.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/documents/SESI-CHP-vs-SHP-&-CHC.pdf
Conversions:
Convert kilowatt hours to barrels of oil equivalent - energy converter
How much coal, natural gas, or petroleum is used to generate a kilowatthour of electricity? - FAQ - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
WB data:
Electric power consumption (kWh per capita) | Data | Table
Total Population (in number of people) | Data | Graph
Cost:
https://www.carbontrust.com/media/19529/ctv044_introducing_combined_heat_and_power.pdf
http://www.iea-etsap.org/web/e-techds/pdf/e04-chp-gs-gct_adfinal.pdf
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Source
trigeneration

@[B]WAJsal[/B], @[B]Slav Defence[/B], @Daneshmand,

 

[VCheng]

I hope the above estimates have given an idea of how big of a problem this is and will not be solved in the foreseeable future.

The mess in the power sector has taken decades to develop, and will take several decades to resolve, if at all.

 

[Shah01]

The mess in the power sector has taken decades to develop, and will take several decades to resolve, if at all.

Yes agree but wanted to highlight the point as some people start complaining without understanding the real situation and think that the problem will just go away in a few months..

 

[VCheng]

Yes agree but wanted to highlight the point as some people start complaining without understanding the real situation and think that the problem will just go away in a few months..

Your work is to be appreciated in making people understand the gravity of the situation. Pakistan's power sector problems will not go away anytime soon, that is for sure. The adverse effects on the quality of life and the economy will continue to be huge, unfortunately.

 

[WAJsal]

There are a number of discussions on the current shortfall of power generation. I think everyone know about the reasons behind this but I will list a few of them:

• Subsidy from the Government
• Line losses
• Theft
• Bill Collection shortfall

Rather than pointing fingers at people to blame someone for the current situation I am going to try to look at how to solve it in the present as well for future generations. I have done some research and modelled some numbers. The aim of this exercise is to look at the cost of setting up power generation infrastructure as well as the cost of generating electricity in the long run taking into account of population and energy growth. The data has been taken from various websites as well my own estimate on a spreadsheet model.
I have made a few assumptions and they will remain same for the whole analysis.

• The population of Pakistan is 189 million in 2015 which will increase to 360 million by 2055.
• The electricity use per capita is assumed to be 800 kWh (well above the 450 kWh from WB records) in 2015 which will increase to 5630 kWh in 2055 (5% increase every year).
• Capacity factors for Gas, Petroleum and Coal is 70%, Nuclear is 90% and Hydro is 50%.
• Assumed to have the energy mix: Gas (30%), Coal (30%), Oil (10%), Nuclear (15%), and Hydro (15%).
• Decentralized power production with the option of Co/Trigeneration.
• Thermal efficiency of 80%. This 80% is further divided into two components; power and cooling/heating where power element is 55% and cooling/heating element is 25%.

View attachment 248223
In my opinion the best way to produce energy going forward would be to use Cogeneration or trigeneration technologies. I prefer trigeneration as it will have many uses in Pakistan due to its hot climate as well as being an agricultural country. The aim should be to decentralise the grid and save energy/resources by greater efficiencies. I purpose to set-up one/several power plants in every city/district. Furthermore setup cold storages and food processing industries beside these power plants. This will ensure that the cooling/heating from the power plants can either be used for processing raw materials or cold storage of fruit/veg. Pakistan produces fruits/vegetables in vast quantities. Potato production is around 2.6 million tonnes and fruits/vegetables is around 13.7 million tonnes every year. At the moment Punjab has majority of the cold storage facilities and about 500 of these are dotted around the province.
I have assumed the following energy generation sources for this exercise. I can look at other sources but it will make the analysis a bit more complex. If we keep Hydro at 15% then we will need an installed capacity of about 70 gigawatt (GW) by the end of 2055. This figure is above the full potential of Hydro in Pakistan (POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGIES IN PAKISTAN). This can be adjusted by including wind and solar power into the mix. I can include them if members wish to…
View attachment 248224

The cost of setting up the above energy mix starting in 2015. This takes account of our current generation capacity. Setting up Coal and Nuclear power plants is most expensive followed by Hydro and Gas. I have assumed that a Gas/Petroleum power plant will cost $1025/kW, Coal Plant $3000/kW, Nuclear $5530/kW and Hydro $3000/kW. Please let me know if these look higher.
View attachment 248225

The cost of generating electricity from the different sources would be as per the chart below. The prices are not adjusted for inflation or any other economic factors. I have tried to get the latest prices so with time the cost will increase from various fossil fuels so expect an increase in cost of generating electricity.
View attachment 248226

The population compared to its need for energy over time.
View attachment 248227

Production of electricity from different sources.
View attachment 248228

I can do further analysis on how much waste heat can be utilised for industries which need heat/steam and cold storage. By utilising the waste heat it will save precious energy source, reduce carbon emissions and save money which can be invested in other things.
I hope the above estimates have given an idea of how big of a problem this is and will not be solved in the foreseeable future. I have a few points/questions:

• How to implement a strategy which will ensure that every year generation capacity is increased.
• Maintenance of the existing infrastructure.
• Decentralised generation will minimise line losses.
• How to eliminate/reduce theft?
• How to increase bill collection?
• Setup industry to build gas turbines/steam turbines. Possibly have a joint venture with an international company with technology transfer.

I am happy to discuss and incorporate suggestions into the model to refine it. I hope I have given an appropriate title.

Further reading. Example calculations for different power plants:
http://sustainable.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/documents/SESI-CHP-vs-SHP-&-CHC.pdf
Conversions:
Convert kilowatt hours to barrels of oil equivalent - energy converter
How much coal, natural gas, or petroleum is used to generate a kilowatthour of electricity? - FAQ - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
WB data:
Electric power consumption (kWh per capita) | Data | Table
Total Population (in number of people) | Data | Graph
Cost:
https://www.carbontrust.com/media/19529/ctv044_introducing_combined_heat_and_power.pdf
http://www.iea-etsap.org/web/e-techds/pdf/e04-chp-gs-gct_adfinal.pdf
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Source
trigeneration

@[B]WAJsal[/B], @[B]Slav Defence[/B], @Daneshmand,

Good post, wonder why i didn't receive an alert.

• How to implement a strategy which will ensure that every year generation capacity is increased.

Good question, i guess a decisive plan needs to be worked out, i can only pray for the government. People say dams are the solution, but they forget how much time it takes to build them and we are not known for efficiency. Look at the growing needs, look at our current yield, and need will grow and our yield is in contrast not growing.

• How to eliminate/reduce theft?

• How to increase bill collection?

Theft is a huge problem, not very hard to tackle.

This figure is above the full potential of Hydro in Pakistan (POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGIES IN PAKISTAN).

So you have read it, i hope it was informative, took me a lot of time to compile it, latest figures)
Hydral alone, can solve our problems in Punjab, KPK and the rest of the country, small dams are much needed, as they store water and can prevent floods and electricity too. Cost is an issue, we should go for mixed venture, i wonder what we are thinking to tackle the growing problem, growing problem is going to grow even more. In Summers situation is like hell, people protesting etc, etc.... Business not running due to no electricity. I hope we do something about it.

I don't find this amusing, we have a vast renewable potential which can also solve a problem we face every year: floods. Why aren't we perusing in that field, note: for Bhasha dam, work hasn't started yet, hell all the land needed hasn't been bought yet, corruption, nepotism, good bless us.

Your work is to be appreciated in making people understand the gravity of the situation. Pakistan's power sector problems will not go away anytime soon, that is for sure. The adverse effects on the quality of life and the economy will continue to be huge, unfortunately.

True, proper steps if were taken in the right time ,we wouldn't be seeing such days. With growing need, not so good times ahead

 

[Faiez]

The population compared to its need for energy over time.

Population grows exponentially...not in a straight line. So there should be a curve between 2015/200million to 2055/350million.

And power in pakistan basically goes straight line or a small positive gradient, not more than that

In just 40 years, pakistan's power production going from ~20,000 MW all the way upto 220,000MW is a long shot.
You've taken a growth rate of I think about 6% or so...Which is too high. Pakistan will probably never be able to achieve that...

 

[Shah01]

Good post, wonder why i didn't receive an alert.

Thank you. Maybe I didn't link users properly?

Good question, i guess a decisive plan needs to be worked out, i can only pray for the government. People say dams are the solution, but they forget how much time it takes to build them and we are not known for efficiency. Look at the growing needs, look at our current yield, and need will grow and our yield is in contrast not growing.

Totally agree. Dams normally take 5-10 years to build on the other hand we could setup Gas power plants within two years and they have a very short payback time as well. These can be set-up by the private sector with a set wholesale rate per kWh (decentralize grid). Coal plants take about 3-4 years and Pakistan government may need to take the initiative as it is becoming more expensive to setup coal power plants. Dams should be built by the government and it should be a priority. I am working on another piece of paper which will look at Pakistan's canal system and water reservoirs.

So you have read it, i hope it was informative, took me a lot of time to compile it, latest figures)
Hydral alone, can solve our problems in Punjab, KPK and the rest of the country, small dams are much needed, as they store water and can prevent floods and electricity too. Cost is an issue, we should go for mixed venture, i wonder what we are thinking to tackle the growing problem, growing problem is going to grow even more. In Summers situation is like hell, people protesting etc, etc.... Business not running due to no electricity. I hope we do something about it.

Yes read the article and it is very informative. Hydro is good option but time involved will not permit any government to build them as a fix for energy crisis so it will have to be a long term plan and these will add capacity as and when they come online. As you have seen from my charts that it will become impossible to solve the problem if the attitude towards priorities is not changed. The side effects of this energy crisis will ripple into other social ills (I really don't want to go into these in this thread!).

I don't find this amusing, we have a vast renewable potential which can also solve a problem we face every year: floods. Why aren't we perusing in that field, note: for Bhasha dam, work hasn't started yet, hell all the land needed hasn't been bought yet, corruption, nepotism, good bless us.

Yes agree with the renewable potential but I think for short to medium term we just need to install gas fired power plants and decentralize the grid. I am also looking at the way to use the waste heat from these power plants which could run industries with need for heat/cooling. For the long run Bhasha and other dams should be started simultaneously.
Yes corruption, nepotism, theft etc will only increase as the population grows unless steps are taken now to tackle these problems by providing basic necessities.

 

[OrionHunter]

Pakistan's troubles - energy, gas, roads, ports, exports/imports, railways, GDP, employment etc will all come to an end within 15 years when the CPEC comes up. One Pakistani commentator even mentioned that 'rivers of gold' will flow through Pakistan!! Meaning that Pakistan will then become one of the world's great economic super powers!!

Imagine what a measly $45 billion over 15 years can do! (Out of which $11 billion is loan to Pakistan by China! Pay-back time is when it starts hurting! )

 

[Shah01]

Population grows exponentially...not in a straight line. So there should be a curve between 2015/200million to 2055/350million.

And power in pakistan basically goes straight line or a small positive gradient, not more than that

In just 40 years, pakistan's power production going from ~20,000 MW all the way upto 220,000MW is a long shot.
You've taken a growth rate of I think about 6% or so...Which is too high. Pakistan will probably never be able to achieve that...

Thank you for the critical analysis.
Yes agree that the population should increase in a nonlinear way. I can fix this.

WB figure of 450 kWh per capita for Pakistan is a bit low in my opinion hence I assumed 800 kWh per capita as our peak need and increase this by 5% for next 40 years. I can change it to 3% if that is more representable of the situation?

 

[Mirza Jatt]

I don't know how feasible the stated plans are but I must appreciate the enthusiasm of the OP. All the best !

 

[Faiez]

Thank you for the critical analysis.
Yes agree that the population should increase in a nonlinear way. I can fix this.

WB figure of 450 kWh per capita for Pakistan is a bit low in my opinion hence I assumed 800 kWh per capita as our peak need and increase this by 5% for next 40 years. I can change it to 3% if that is more representable of the situation?

Exponential increase in power just seems unlikely in pakistan to ever happen....use a straight line for power. Increase by 1,000MW per year. That's ~8TW-hr per year.

 

[Shah01]

I don't know how feasible the stated plans are but I must appreciate the enthusiasm of the OP. All the best !

Thank you. These are not plans but an estimate based on a few assumptions (which can be changed).

Exponential increase in power just seems unlikely in pakistan to ever happen....use a straight line for power. Increase by 1,000MW per year. That's ~8TW-hr per year.

Well you see there are two factors here: Population increase and increase in use of electricity. Even if people use the same amount of power (450 kWh) in 40 years Pakistan will still need twice as much power (45 Gigawatt installed capacity) and guess what will happen; ~12 hour power cuts....
The model is looking at the peak power needed for a population of 360 million with a power use equivalent to UK (increasing current usage by 5% every year). I can reduce both these factors by a couple of notches if you want?

 

[Faiez]

Well you see there are two factors here: Population increase and increase in use of electricity. Even if people use the same amount of power (450 kWh) in 40 years Pakistan will still need twice as much power (45 Gigawatt installed capacity) and guess what will happen; ~12 hour power cuts....
The model is looking at the peak power needed for a population of 360 million with a power use equivalent to UK (increasing current usage by 5% every year). I can reduce both these factors by a couple of notches if you want?

It may be inappropriate to say this, but at the end of the day, Pakistan is still Pakistan . So go easy with your calculations lol.

Also, predicting what will happen 40 yrs from now is not really easy...Power consumption per capita may even decrease as efficiency of appliances and industry etc increases. But that also depends on how the gdp/capita increases. Only if people's buying power increases will they be able to afford more appliances and more electricity.....So it really is quite complicated.

 

[I.R.A]

The electricity use per capita is assumed to be 800 kWh (well above the 450 kWh from WB records) in 2015 which will increase to 5630 kWh in 2055 (5% increase every year).

Don't mind if I sound non technical but I find it hard to agree with this. This huge increase in consumption in turn depends on users and consumers and their appliances, don't you think it would mean lots of industry and lots of homes being built etc etc? This increase in my opinion can result if the purchasing power and living standard of every citizen changes dramatically over this period??????? I mean in nutshell the demand will remain stagnant at some point unless lots of industries being setup and houses being built, which is highly unlikely. Otherwise I don't see any direct relation between population growth and electricity consumption.

And another conspiracy that I cannot get rid of is how does Afghanistan meet its energy demands? Why do I see some contribution from Pakistan too

 

[Faiez]

And another conspiracy that I cannot get rid of is how does Afghanistan meet its energy demands? Why do I see some contribution from Pakistan too

They don't have energy demands outside of the few major cities. And even within those cities they have power outages So in short Afghanistan does not meet its energy demands.