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Pakistan Needs 3 Years to Gain Control of Border, Pentagon Says

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Pakistan Needs 3 Years to Gain Control of Border, Pentagon Says

By Tony Capaccio

May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan won't be capable of rooting out terrorists based along its rugged border with Afghanistan for at least three years, according to the U.S. military.

``Safe havens'' in this area for al-Qaeda and Taliban militants ``have grown in recent years,'' according to a report to the House and Senate defense panels.

``Deficiencies in the Pakistan Army's ability to conduct counter-insurgency operations are being addressed; however, it will take three to five years before they are realized on the battlefield,'' the report said.

The mountainous, semi-autonomous region in northwest Pakistan is a sanctuary and recruiting ground for al-Qaeda and the Taliban, the ousted Islamist Afghan regime whose guerrilla attacks against foreign troops and the government of Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai have increased.

The Pakistan army has been trained and equipped to fight India, and its Frontier Corps that is responsible for the tribal areas is under-trained, ill-equipped and ``in many cases are outgunned by their militant opponents,'' the report said.

The armed forces have ``deficiencies in structure, tactics, doctrine and flexibility,'' the Pentagon report said.

The 16-page Pentagon report, delivered last week, is consistent with the findings of an April 17 assessment by the U.S. Government Accountability Office. GAO said the U.S. lacks a comprehensive strategy for dealing with this problem. The Pentagon report was silent on that question.

$5.8 Billion From U.S.

The U.S. provided about $5.8 billion from 2002 to 2007 in military assistance to Pakistan for frontier operations.

Congress in this year's defense policy law required the Pentagon to assess whether Pakistan ``is making substantial efforts'' to eliminate Taliban and al-Qaeda safe havens and prevent cross-border movement and how successful these efforts have been.

Pakistan since 2001, the Pentagon said, has launched at least 91 major and ``countless'' smaller operations in support of U.S. counter-terror efforts, lost over 1,400 soldiers, and unveiled a comprehensive ``Frontier Strategy'' to stem the flow of terrorists and insurgents.

The nine-year, $2 billion counter-insurgency effort envisions improving existing social and economic conditions, upgrading infrastructure and bolstering commerce, the report said.

Military `Ill-Suited'

``Although there have been pauses for both tactical and political reasons, Pakistani security operations in the tribal areas continue to disrupt terrorist activities,'' but the military is ``ill-suited'' to engage in a counter-insurgency fight, the report said.

``Mounting casualties and kidnappings'' have demoralized security forces operating in the tribal areas. ``As a result, the Army has instituted new policies to improve morale,'' it said.

Pakistan joined the U.S.-led war on terrorism in 2001 when President Pervez Musharraf ended his nation's support for Afghanistan's Taliban regime that sheltered al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.

The Taliban sought refuge in Pakistan's so-called Federally Administered Tribal Area where normal Pakistani laws, courts and police have no jurisdiction.

Musharraf's military government repeatedly signed peace deals with leaders of the Pashtun ethnic group that dominates the border area, yet it also periodically conducted army offensives there and permitted U.S. missile strikes on suspected al-Qaeda targets.

New Government

Pakistan's opposition parties won national parliamentary elections in February. The country's new coalition government has emphasized political, rather than military, steps to combat a spreading insurgency by the Taliban, which effectively controls thousands of square miles of rugged, mountainous terrain.

The U.S. government is concerned a softened approach to the extremists may let them expand their base in Pakistan and step up attacks on U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

``The most newsworthy aspect'' of the Pentagon report ``is what it does not say,'' Robert Martinage, a military analyst with the nonpartisan Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, who wrote an assessment on the U.S. terrorism war.

``There's absolutely no discussion about the implications of recent political developments in Pakistan,'' he said.

``The new government may not be willing -- at least, publicly -- to support many of the elements'' in Musharraf's plan to expand the Frontier Corps for border operations, Martinage said. ``That's the 800-lb gorilla in the room -- and the report is silent on it.''
 
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This might explain the attempt to "hold the fort" by engaging in in "peace deals" with the militants I suppose.

The Military has expressed its disapproval of fighting this war in FATA (lest it be construed as a "Punjabi Army vs Pashtun" war), though I am certain they will provide support to the FC, so the onus is on the FC, and that requires massive investment in training and equipment, and most of all time.

Given past results with "peace deals" though, cross our fingers and hope....
 
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