Pakistan Inadvertantly Admits That Its First Strike Capability Is Neutered:--

[PakShaheen79]

Whatever MK said in his very first post clearly contains some very exaggerated ideas about Indian ability to take down Pakistani BMs thus allowing Indians with decisive conventional victory but in my opinion despite all the exaggeration and omitting China factor completely in Indo, Pak, and US scenario, there are some valid points there which Pakistan's strategic decision makers must take into consideration. For example, the diplomatic implications of developing tactical nuclear weapons and relying on them for defense against CONVENTIONAL Indian forces. If we look at international media and diplomatic circles objectively, already every second think tank is painting Pakistan as an eager party to go nuclear in case a war with India. This is why now the debate about a possible Indo-Pak war has been transformed into a debate about a nuclear war between these two arch rival. This debate is a music to Indian ears and it is allowing them to pose more powerful than they actually are in conventional terms.

I think the remedy is to start developing new conventional capability and using nuclear (both strategic and tactical) weapons as political weapons to keep Indian design in check. The real dilemma is even if we survive after using tactical nuclear weapons, that Pakistan would be far worse than what it is now. This is the point no one is paying heed to. Come what May, Pakistan will have to enhance it's conventional capabilities to an extent that it can keep Indians at bay. In quantity vs quality graph, our eyes must be on quality but if (due to any reason) that is not possible, the best choice is to push for quantity axis with whatever we have and I am happy that now we are seeing that thought process kicking in armed forces and am more happy to see they are putting investment in right place i.e. air force. The only force which will be present over battlefield both on land and sea supporting sister forces both in offensive and defensive roles. Air power is the key for Pakistan. Commissioning of new air force base at Bolari and rising of the new squadron of JF-17s can be one indication that we are pushing quantity axis (China did same in 60s, 70s, 80s, when their scientific organizations were not matured enough to undertake complex projects from scratch and look where they are now). But what next? This push in quantity axis must buy us some time to build our forces in modern terms but for that, we need massive indigenization drive, very solid educational base, massive industrialization with help of overseas Pakistanis etc. But this is way difficult to achieve than saying because of our 2nd dilemma.

Our 2nd dilemma is poor and disastrous foreign policy. Pakistan will have to make its flank dependent on itself. Any blast happening inside Pakistan must send shivers down in spines of Indian and Afghan rulers. How will that happen? when their economic linkages, trade, communication and a lot more will depend on Pakistan. First, Chahbahar and now Oman are the outcomes of our poor play at the diplomatic chessboard. Now you see, both Iran and Oman have become important for India. I can understand that this is very difficult to swallow for our establishment but this is only play left if want to give yourself time to get established as China did and then start building military muscle without getting any transactional relationship with any other country, unlike MK, has described in his very first post.

 

[Maarkhoor]

@MastanKhan

Kindly let me know how US intercept a missile if we fire it from Sialkot or Gujranwala?

Indian ABM is still in testing phase and highly unreliable since they are testing it on Agni missiles which uses old trajectory while even our Ghauri missile equip with separating warhead and when its warhead reaches in Indian ABM range it will only the size of 2 or 2.5 meters and at that time interception rate if not even 10%.

 

[Sine Nomine]

Pakistan must change the level of the playing field---it must shift the goal posts---it must move the hoop around---it must think out of the box---it must come out of its nuclear euphoria that it has been living under for many a years.

Pakistan military needs a new DEVIL'S ADVOCATE---the current one does not know its head from its toes---. There needs to be a shake up of the thinkers in the military consortium.

Of all words on PDF you wrote,these are only one,I 100% agree,kudos.

@MastanKhan

Kindly let me know how US intercept a missile if we fire it from Sialkot or Gujranwala?

Indian ABM is still in testing phase and highly unreliable since they are testing it on Agni missiles which uses old trajectory while even our Ghauri missile equip with separating warhead and when its warhead reaches in Indian ABM range it will only the size of 2 or 2.5 meters and at that time interception rate if not even 10%.

Unless you aren't living under a rock,which i know majority of Pakistanis are.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Support_Program

 

[Fledgingwings]

If and when comes,the time will tell who hits who and where.

 

[DJ_Viper]

Hi,

I do not think that any pakistani had noticed that in the recent statements by pakistani officials---the state of pakistan has advertantly admitted that it has lost its first strike capability over indian soil.

The suggestion that we are going to use the nucs on our soil to destroy the incoming enemy force was a tantamount to admission of a failed nuc strike capability across the border.

What that means is that pakistan is now admitting that india has ABM's that will take out its nucs during flight---and the next frightening thing for pakistan is that the long range nuc tipped missiles would be taken out on the pakistani side by indian ABM capabilities.

As the hostilities will grow---the U S navy would also be deploying its Aegis class frigates in the arabian sea closer to the pakistan indian borders----. The sole purpose would be to intercept the pakistani nuc tipped missiles that could fly into india.

They could also intercept any indian nuc tipped missiles flying into pakistan----but due to the geography and geometry----all the pakistan launched missiles could be intercepted---because they would be coming in---but the indian missiles would not be---even though the american missiles try as much---because they would be going away from the launch vehicle---.

View attachment 288123

Just for reference sake---if you look at the map of pakistan and india----an aegis class cruiser off the coast of gujrat can intercept many a missiles coming into india.

The indian ABM's will cover the rest halfway above rajasthan. This is what I have been trying to explain in my last few posts---I did not want to get directly into the tactical issue---but the thing is that the U S is not going to allow pakistan to use its nucs successfully.

The U S is going to be a player in the game---whether pakistan likes it or don't. That is why I have been writing over here---there is no way out for pakistan other than gaining conventional strength.

If the generals are saying that cannot happen---then those generals need to be FIRED and those who can---need to be put incharge.

And again for that reason---I bring back the Yemen issue---. A 15--20 billion dollars cash upfront for the first year would have taken care of most of the strike capabilities of pakistan and 5 billion a year after that would have taken care of the major issues.

It would also had given air force bases to pakistan on the arab land to strike deep into the indian flank---and alongwith another extra 150 k troops to gain strength from at time of crisis---.

And again to thos who have not read my yemen strike force numbers here they are----.

Pakistan would release 50 K troops on the go---and in return it would ask saudi arabia to deploy one sqdrn of F15SA's at jacobabad---it would also ask emirate to deploy a sqdrn of BLK60 a J'abad and 2 sqdrn's of Mirage 2K9's at karachi----these would neuter any indian strike threat.

Pakistan would build a military cantonment at gwadar---a full blooded campaign would be started for new recruits---all newly retd general staff and officers be recalled to active duty.

With the funds----pakistan would purchase at least 100 J10C's or100 SU35's----around a 100 JH7B's or a 100 SU34's----.

For the navy---at least 2 to 4 latest models of 052's and the 054's---between 5000 to 8000 + tonnage range----10 + upgraded F22 frigate

For the army a build up to at least 10 divs of armor and artillery and 5 battalions of LR sams etc----and 5 divs of infantry.

Pakistan's salvation is in a conventional force---a strike force that can take out the cities around mumbai and beneath----.

Mumbai is the jewle in the crown---a destruction of mumbai would stop india from starting a war---.

We already know that karachi and lahore and multan would be destroyed---so we need to destroy what the enemy loves the most---where it would hurt the most.

Basically the time for a nuclear is over for pakistan. Nuclear wars look good to poor nations---nations who are in the recovery mode and see a light at the end of he tunnel---must refrain and find other means to counter---.

No offense, but your post is highly sci-fi. I felt like I am reading a junior wana be Tom Clancy. The end of the world and imaginary ABM's taking out dozens of missiles, and then somehow Pakistan, in her current condition economically, being able to buy dozens of billions of weapons. And KSA, deploying their F-15 SA's, that they aren't allow to even send outside the country unless the US authorizes it. Too much sci-fi like I said.

Some realistic stuff would make it a much better post.