Pakistan identified as biggest foreign policy test

[BanglaBhoot]

Washington's newly appointed special envoy is due to arrive in Islamabad today, as Barack Obama's administration tackles what may turn out to be its greatest foreign policy challenge: a nuclear-armed country hurtling towards chaos.

According to Obama's aides, Pakistan is the nation that really "scares" him. The country is threatened by a growing Islamist insurgency, economic collapse and a crisis of governance as it struggles to establish democratic rule. The Obama administration believes Pakistan is key to its objectives of pacifying Afghanistan and going after al-Qaida and has appointed a pugnacious diplomatic troubleshooter, Richard Holbrooke, as a special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

"We often call this situation Afpak," said Holbrooke at a conference in Munich yesterday, before flying to Islamabad. "There will be more focus on Pakistan," he said. "A new and fragile democracy has emerged ... but the situation in Pakistan requires attention and sympathy."

Leaks of a US military review, conducted under David Petraeus, the American general in charge of the region, say he has concluded that Pakistan, not Iraq, Afghanistan or Iran, is the most urgent foreign policy issue facing Obama.

Pakistan is al-Qaida's headquarters, while its tribal territory, which runs along the Afghan border, is used by the Taliban to launch attacks against coalition forces in Afghanistan. Some Pakistani extremists who previously focused on Afghanistan, have now turned inwards, spawning a vicious Pakistani Taliban movement which challenges the writ of the state. Obama warned in a television interview this month that the spillover of the war in Afghanistan risks "destabilising neighbouring Pakistan, which has nuclear weapons".

The security situation in Pakistan seems to deteriorate daily. Last week's headlines, for instance, included: a bombing of a religious procession in the central town of Dera Ghazi Khan, which claimed at least 27 lives; government helicopter gunship attacks that killed 52 militants in the Khyber area of the tribal region; the kidnapping of a senior UN official by gunmen; and the beheading of a Polish engineer who was abducted five months ago. A videotape of the execution was released last night by his captors.

A year ago democracy was restored after eight years of military rule but many believe the government is in a state of paralysis, as an unwieldy coalition and a cabinet of about 70 ministers jockey for position - ever wary of the army, which has ruled Pakistan for most of its existence. Government decision-making is concentrated in the hands of President Asif Zardari, creating a log-jam, critics say.

"Yes, we have a million problems. We had lots of inherited issues and perhaps a slowness to get the government off the ground," said Farahnaz Ispahani, a member of parliament for the Pakistan People's party, which leads the coalition. "But I do feel that we're slowly and gradually moving towards better governance."

However, the government has been unable to forge a political consensus on the fight against terrorism, with opinion divided between political parties, who favour military action against the extremists and those who want to negotiate, even within the ruling coalition.

As a result, no clear direction has been given to the army. In tandem with the security crisis, the economy, which was saved from bankruptcy late last year by an IMF loan, is plagued by inflation and a collapse in economic activity.

"The civilian leadership is weak and fearful of the inevitable in Pakistan, that it oversteps the mark and runs the risk of being removed [by the army]," said Rashed Rahman, a political analyst based in Lahore. "It's a non-functional government."

The army has repeatedly shown that it will not bow to civilians on national security, refusing a government order last year, for instance, to place the top spy agency, the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence, under government control.

Armed extremists appear to be able to spread unchecked, with a Taliban-style mini-state now existing 100 miles from Islamabad, in Swat valley. Many Pakistanis are asking whether the country's armed forces are unable or unwilling to take on the jihadists, who are rapidly pushing their influence out from their base in the tribal area.

"We always say that we have one of the most powerful armies, yet how come we cannot even cut off the supply routes [for the militants] in Swat?" said Bushra Gohar, a member of parliament for the Awami National party, part of the ruling coalition. "We are patronising terror. The training camps and safe havens are still there. This has to stop."

The top priority for Washington will be getting Pakistan to take more concerted military action in the tribal territory. The Obama administration is promising more non-military aid, with a plan to triple social and economic assistance to $1.5bn a year.

Western diplomats believe the military's top brass, including army chief General Ashfaq Kayani and head of the ISI, Lieutenant General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, are committed to fighting the extremists, but that there are problems further down the ranks.

The deep confusion in Pakistan also envelops the role of the US and other western powers, who many believe are secretly supporting the extremists, in order to destabilise Pakistan. And while most Pakistanis do not agree with the Taliban's methods, their message of enforcing Islam resonates.

Mosharraf Zaidi, a columnist for The News, a Pakistani daily, said: "Nobody knows what to believe. There is no clarity in Pakistan about who's behind the extremists. For one group of people it's Raw [the Indian intelligence agency], for another group of people it's the CIA, for another group of people it's the ISI. In that scenario, the idea that there's political will in Pakistan to solve this is absurd. You can't have political will when you don't even know who the enemy is."

Pakistan identified as biggest foreign policy test | World news | The Guardian

 

[BanglaBhoot]

Pakistan will be a stern test of Washington's 'smart power'

President Obama is losing patience with the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

It wasn’t so long ago that the word “optimistic” featured in conversations about Pakistan. Benazir Bhutto, the glamourous and charismatic leader of the Pakistan People’s Party was expected to return to power for a third time and lead a national campaign to save the country from the Taliban and al-Qaeda militants, who were threatening its very existence.

She had been planning a crusade to persuade ordinary Pakistanis that the global war on terror was their fight too, and had won support for a series of political and judicial reforms to drag the country’s feudal tribal areas into the national mainstream.

She argued that the Taliban’s ranks were swollen with angry young men rebelling against a barbaric and undemocratic order. There would be new local elections, aid money for education, a real battle for hearts and minds and a final absorption of a forsaken place into Pakistan proper. “We are prepared to sacrifice our lives but we are not prepared to surrender our nation to the militants,” she said.

It was a plan, but a year after her brutal murder it is no more a reality, despite the attempts of her widower Asif Ali Zardari to govern in her image.

The arrival in Islamabad on Monday of Richard Holbrooke, President Obama’s new special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan, and Britain’s appointment of the equally feisty Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles to a similar role, indicates a loss of patience with the democratic governments both countries had invested so much hope and diplomacy in.

Before his arrival, Mr Holbrooke described the situation in Pakistan as “dire” and it would be hard to disagree with his appraisal.

Today, despite a scorched-earth policy based on aerial bombing of militants, and villagers who refuse to fight them in Bajaur Agency, the Taliban still controls much of the ground. In North and South Waziristan, where Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters have declared the “Islamic Emirate of Waziristan”, Pakistan’s soldiers are largely confined to barracks for fear of massacre. In nearby Khyber Agency, where the Khyber Pass is plied by Nato trucks supplying British and American troops in Afghanistan, Taliban fighters have seized Humvee Armoured Personnel Carriers and other hardware to sell.

Even the Swat Valley, one of the most beautiful green highland landscapes on earth and until recently a popular tourist destination, is now home to Taliban FM radio stations which broadcast the names of new death squad targets most evenings, and justify the latest murders of women and girls.

In Green Square in the centre of Mingora, the valley’s largest city, executions are staged and bodies dumped within walking distance of police stations, to help local people understand the Taliban’s take on Sharia law.

Police officers in Swat have abandoned their posts in fear and diplomats say they can’t blame them — the state’s writ no longer runs here and its police officers do not receive regular salaries for fighting the Taliban.

The fall of Swat is one of the setbacks that have made Pakistan’s prospects so dire. Unlike Waziristan, Bajaur and Khyber, it is not a dusty no-man’s land beyond the far reaches of civilization, but what Pakistanis call a “settled area”, part of “Pakistan proper”.

Mr Holbrooke’s arrival, with unprecedented powers delegated by President Obama, and the appointment of Sir Sherard mark a new approach to Pakistan in which irritation and anger are not far below the surface. “For this first trip, Holbrooke really will listen and learn, then he’ll come back and tell them,” said one diplomat in Islamabad.

The Pakistan government has not yet sensed the plunge in temperature and was last week optimistically briefing on its strategy to bring the Americans to heel. It will demand an end to aerial bombing by US Predator drones on al-Qaeda and Taliban targets, which it says is a blatant breach of its sovereignty. It will propose that the drones be handed over to Pakistan’s military so that they can launch the raids themselves.

The sovereignty that Islamabad publicly asserts against American air strikes, however, is one it is unable to enforce against the

al-Qaeda leaders and Taliban fighters whose writ runs stronger: it is their “emirate” now, and the United States appears ready to treat it as such. Afghanistan and Pakistan are to be regarded as conjoined twins who cannot survive without each other.

Mr Holbrooke is expected to support a new approach which will involve more Pakistani aerial bombardment of militant havens, the creation of a new elite police force to move in and control the regained territory, more aid for education, and secret talks with “persuadable” Taliban leaders and allies in Afghanistan, such as former prime minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, to help them switch sides.

It’s the first big test for the “smart power” Hilary Clinton outlined in the Senate when she was confirmed as secretary of state.

Pakistan will be a stern test of Washington's 'smart power' - Telegraph

 

[muse]

Holbrooke is expected to support a new approach which will involve more Pakistani aerial bombardment of militant havens, the creation of a new elite police force to move in and control the regained territory, more aid for education, and secret talks with “persuadable” Taliban leaders and allies in Afghanistan, such as former prime minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, to help them switch sides.

I likes...very much. However; I don't understand why the US has not provided Fauj the helicopters it needs. The Fauj needs hundreds of helicopters to go after AQ/Talib and ofcourse, the Balouch mercenaries. The strategic ally of the US in the region has obvious objections, however; if once again, like in Palestine, the world is unable to tell the head from the tail, only the US will be blamed for allowing that perception to take hold.

 

[metalfalcon]

Holbrooke is expected to support a new approach which will involve more Pakistani aerial bombardment of militant havens, the creation of a new elite police force to move in and control the regained territory, more aid for education, and secret talks with “persuadable” Taliban leaders and allies in Afghanistan, such as former prime minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, to help them switch sides.

I likes...very much. However; I don't understand why the US has not provided Fauj the helicopters it needs. The Fauj needs hundreds of helicopters to go after AQ/Talib and ofcourse, the Balouch mercenaries. The strategic ally of the US in the region has obvious objections, however; if once again, like in Palestine, the world is unable to tell the head from the tail, only the US will be blamed for allowing that perception to take hold.

yes you are right Brother, I think Pakistani Forces need More help From USA in the form of more choppers, Guns and Ammunition and Training.

But India is asking USA not to give any Military Aid to Pakistan because they FEAR that it will be used against them.

 

[BanglaBhoot]

In Pakistan, Special Envoy From U.S. Finds Discontent

LAHORE, Pakistan — The American special envoy, Richard C. Holbrooke, wound down his whistle-stop tour of Pakistan on Wednesday with a brief visit to the lawless tribal areas, and then dinner with liberal intellectuals at a rooftop restaurant here in Lahore.

He had come to listen, not to lecture, Mr. Holbrooke said. What he heard was a familiar list of requests for more money and arms from Pakistan’s top leadership, as well as a litany of complaints about American airstrikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas using Predator drones.

Mr. Holbrooke’s trip to Pakistan, and his four-day tour of Afghanistan, which is scheduled to begin Thursday, was part of a top-to-bottom review of American policy in the region ordered by President Obama.

The challenge for the new administration is how to persuade a Pakistani military fixated on its archenemy India to reorient its troops to fight the Qaeda and Taliban insurgency that is engulfing the country.

Washington also wants to convince the poorly organized and almost bankrupt civilian government, led by President Asif Ali Zardari, that it must support the military in its counterinsurgency efforts by providing proper governance and development.

As part of his tour in the capital, Islamabad, Mr. Holbrooke met with Mr. Zardari; the military chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani; and the head of Inter-Services Intelligence, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha.

Officials familiar with the conversations say Mr. Holbrooke was faced with universal opposition to the Predator strikes, which American officials say have helped disrupt the Qaeda network.

The Pakistanis insist that the drone strikes have killed civilians, further turned public feeling against the United States, and represent an infringement of their sovereignty.

What, if anything, the Obama administration plans to do about the protests over the missile attacks was not clear, officials said.

A retired Pakistani general, Talat Masood, who attended a dinner in honor of Mr. Holbrooke at the American Embassy on Tuesday night, said he got the impression that there may be some effort by the Americans to make the drone strikes more palatable by conducting them as a joint operation.

The foreign minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, called the attacks “counterproductive” and said that Pakistan and the United States would form a joint team of officials to review policy differences, including the missile attacks.

As well as voice opposition to the missile strikes, General Kayani asked for more equipment for the army’s counterinsurgency efforts, which the Pakistanis have long asserted they have been denied by Washington. “We are crying hoarsely,” General Kayani’s spokesman, Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, said of the request that was made to Mr. Holbrooke.

Mr. Zardari, who is presiding over a crumbling economy on life support from the International Monetary Fund, made a major pitch for immediate American economic assistance, officials said.

On Wednesday morning, Mr. Holbrooke flew in a helicopter over the mountainous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, where supplies for American and NATO troops in Afghanistan have come under attack from militants in recent months.

He was then flown over the Bajaur and Mohmand areas of the tribal belt, where the Pakistani Army is fighting the Taliban.

He landed at Ghalanai, the small town that serves as the capital of Mohmand, and heard from the government’s chief representative, Amjad Ali Khan, how the civilian authorities were using the persuasion of local tribes to bring young men who had joined the Taliban back into the fold.

But as the government was showing Mr. Holbrooke its best efforts against the insurgents, a car bomb killed a popular provincial legislator in Peshawar, the chaotic capital of the North-West Frontier Province. The politician, Alam Zeb Khan, was driving to inspect a development project in the city, his supporters said, when a remote-controlled bomb blew up his car.

For a sense of how the insurgency is affecting people, Mr. Holbrooke met in Peshawar with a group of women from nongovernment organizations.

A young woman who lived in Swat, an area where the army has virtually lost control to the Taliban, told Mr. Holbrooke how the Taliban had killed her husband. The women of Swat, she told him, were confined to their houses, were not allowed to go shopping, and lived in fear of the Taliban, who spread their message through FM radio.

Though Mr. Holbrooke was accompanied by the deputy commander of the United States Central Command, Maj. General John R. Allen, the high-profile visit by a civilian envoy could change the tone of the conversation with Pakistan, said Ahmed Rashid, the author of a recent book on Pakistan and Afghanistan, called “Descent into Chaos,” who attended the dinner with Mr. Holbrooke in the old town in Lahore.

“This is a complete sea change in what Pakistan is used to,” said Mr. Rashid, who was invited to Washington just before the inauguration to attend a small foreign policy dinner with Mr. Obama.

“There is a suspicion in the American establishment that the Pakistani Army has found it easier to pull the wool over the eyes of the American military. It will be harder to do that with the civilians.”

On Thursday, before leaving for Afghanistan, Mr. Holbrooke is scheduled to meet Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-N who served as prime minister twice in the 1990s.

Mr. Sharif holds some sympathies with the Islamic parties, and, as a rival of Mr. Zardari’s, he is considered an important figure for the Americans because he would like to maneuver his way to power in the coming year.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/world/asia/12pstan.html?_r=1