Pakistan F-16 Discussions 2

[PakFactor]

Is your source Haqeeqat TV??Just joking.
We would have like 6 fighter's until Mirage and F 7 is retired.
I think this deal would be the same as VT 4 the crews would be in training right now in China and then in the end the planes would be revealed in an exercise or a parade.

Pretty much how it'll be train and come with it.

I envision PAF being more streamlined, with Western Platform F-16 + Mirages & Eastern Platform J-10 + JF-17 Combo. In my view and from some I've spoken to said PAF access to Western Fighters will be down to 0. If we get F-16s its one thing but don't expect more than this, when our F-16 have reached their life span.

According to one PAF Officer who's a distant relative said, "Western priorities have changed, we will be approaching the end of the run way with them". Note: In terms of advanced fighter platforms.

 

[FuturePAF]

From my source we can expect J-10 to fly in PAF before next March 23rd 2022 the deal is in the final legs. As per him it's capabilities are as good as F-16C.

Was the issue of reluctance with a J-10 procurement their engines or the hopes that the F-16s would be released. Now that the engines have reached a certain level of maturity it seems that shouldn’t be the issue, while the political winds don’t seem to favor a F-16 Block 70 sale or even release of EDF F-16s.

Would love to see at least 2 if not 4-6 squadrons of J-10 in the PAF. The J-10CE is probably nearly a match for the F-16 Block 70 considering how rapidly Chinese industry is advancing. An export order for the J-10 can open up more sales for CAC in a similar way the PAF operations of the Jf-17 have done for sales of that aircraft. Slow and steady by a shift is occurring.

Really hope the PL-15 or a follow up or an alternative Chinese missile will exceed the performance of the Meteor and give the Indians nightmares the way the F-16s have done for the last 40 years.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Really hope the PL-15 or a follow up or an alternative Chinese missile will exceed the performance of the Meteor and give the Indians nightmares the way the F-16s have done for the last 40 years.

The PL15 is more than capable of matching the Meteor.What will beat it will be the PL-21 : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PL-21

Very little known about it now, but as with all Chinese weapons development projects, they tend to turn up when you least expect them to.

 

[Scorpiooo]

The PL15 is more than capable of matching the Meteor.What will beat it will be the PL-21 : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PL-21

Very little known about it now, but as with all Chinese weapons development projects, they tend to turn up when you least expect them to.

PL already integrated on multiple new heavy plateform and are under testing

 

[PakFactor]

Was the issue of reluctance with a J-10 procurement their engines or the hopes that the F-16s would be released. Now that the engines have reached a certain level of maturity it seems that shouldn’t be the issue, while the political winds don’t seem to favor a F-16 Block 70 sale or even release of EDF F-16s.

Would love to see at least 2 if not 4-6 squadrons of J-10 in the PAF. The J-10CE is probably nearly a match for the F-16 Block 70 considering how rapidly Chinese industry is advancing. An export order for the J-10 can open up more sales for CAC in a similar way the PAF operations of the Jf-17 have done for sales of that aircraft. Slow and steady by a shift is occurring.

Really hope the PL-15 or a follow up or an alternative Chinese missile will exceed the performance of the Meteor and give the Indians nightmares the way the F-16s have done for the last 40 years.

With J-10 AESA + PL-15 it’ll be a lethal combo this is what we’ll be getting. Now we also have to see if JF-17 will carry some sort of capable BVR like PL-15, besides SD-10, etc.

One other thing he mentioned awhile back last year, a lot of these systems like Spectra, etc are really untested against a competent adversary, the West have only fought against 3rd rate countries or militias that’s about it. While they tout these systems, things change in the 1st contact with the enemy, case in point Feb 27th, 2019 - the only attack in modern war carried out against another enemy who have similar capabilities (and competency and was on high alert after their failed attack) with PAF using AWACS, counter measures and Stand of Weapons and BVR Engagement.

As for your 1st point it’s a lot of things, but mostly to see which route India would go and what options PAF has to counter it, along with the maturity of the platform as well.

But I see a problem with this approach and I’ve discussed it with few people as well. You can’t keep matching India you have to think of a bigger enemy and how to engage them and that positioning would take care of India on its own. You need a way to counter U.S. because the they will be gunning for Pakistan down the road.

 

[FuturePAF]

As a follow on to the IRST suggestion, which may not work due to the extensive integration work. Perhaps a shortcut/more simple alternative would be to see if Leonardo would be willing to make a pod version of its Pirate or Skyward IRST, which our F-16s and even our JF-17 could carry.

A JF-17 with a PL-15, an AESA radar, and one of the world’s leading IRST as a pod would definitely be a lethal combination, especially with the right tactics.

There is also the option for the PAF to just outright try to purchase the LEGION IRST Pod. It’s not like officially Pakistan is barred from sales, so it maybe something to look into.

BTW, I hope, now that the WingLong II are operational, they will be IRST equipped to take on some CAP missions. Equipped with the SD-10 or even PL-15, it could serve as a Loyal Wingman; a good screening force in contested airspace where the latest enemy fighters and air defense systems operate.

The PAF should consider transferring the SD-10 to home defense UCAV mission, while buying a large number of PL-15 for all its JF-17s. The SD-10s could be modified with an IR seeker and used (along with an IRST and small Aesa radar) to arm WingLongII to serve as a “Flying SAM battery” around major air bases to shoot down enemy PGMs as is being tested at Creech AFB near Vegas

ABMS Onramp 2 sees second MQ-9 AIM-9X shot and other CMD tactics development

From employing an AIM-9X from an MQ-9 to improving AGR-20 cruise missile defense tactics from the F-16, units across the 53d Wing played a critical role in the Advanced Battle Management System Onramp

www.creech.af.mil

 

[Deltadart]

The F16s era is finally over.
Obviously they will soldier on for few more decades, depending on foreign support, but future lies in local or eastern weapons.

 

[Scorpiooo]

The F16s era is finally over.
Obviously they will soldier on for few more decades, depending on foreign support, but future lies in local or eastern weapons.

PAF love for F16s can't be over that easily

 

[applesauce]

china cant be a consumer economy unless it avoids the middle income trap. CCP is trying hard to get to a consumer driven economy by 2025. if it succeeds then it truly rivals the US. the other threat looming is the disastrous imapct of 1-child policy. as most of the labor force will retire at once while not having enough population in the labor pool to support them

In the past, japan, korea were all at the level of where china is today. sadly they all fell for the middle income trap

what? japan, korea is middle income? lol what alternate dimension are you from?

world bank's definition of a high income country is $12,535 per capita. even china now(~10k) is close to that number let alone japan and korea.

also at current trends, china will still have over 1 billion people in 2100. thats a completely good number, overpopulation is not a good thing. china just needs to work on stabilization the population. in addition, china's consumption is at about 40%, not quite the 55% of advanced economies, but its getting there and its huge size means even at a lower percentage it'll still the second largest in the world

 

[Mk-313]

what? japan, korea is middle income? lol what alternate dimension are you from?

world bank's definition of a high income country is $12,535 per capita. even china now(~10k) is close to that number let alone japan and korea.

also at current trends, china will still have over 1 billion people in 2100. thats a completely good number, overpopulation is not a good thing. china just needs to work on stabilization the population. in addition, china's consumption is at about 40%, not quite the 55% of advanced economies, but its getting there and its huge size means even at a lower percentage it'll still the second largest in the world

You should really research before you look stupid. But yes Japan Korea they all fell into middle income traps. So I’ll school you a bit

Middle income trap is when a rising export economy starts to slow down because of its own rise. As exports grow the currency and labor becomes more expensive and exports starts to shift to the next cheapest country

Between the time exports starts to shifted as labor becomes more expensive there is a very narrow window an economy has to shift entirely to a consumer based economy. So that even if the exports are shifted it does not matter the domestic economy can bear its weight and continue growing at pace

If the middle income trap is not avoided economies fall behind and it takes them decades to recover from them. Only 15 economies to date have recovered from the middle income traps which includes Japan and south korea

But if Japan had not fell into middle income trap it would’ve been a bigger economy than the USA.

Aiming for the Top: Can China Escape the Middle Income Trap? - CKGSB

As for China

wrong chinas domestic consumer economy is 38%

The problem is not the population itself the problem is the ratio of aging population to working population. As population reaches the retirement age they no longer participate in the economy and that causes gdp to go down.

2- If the aging population is not replaced with equal amount of working population then the balance shifts more money is then spent to take care of the aging population vs in research, technology investment etc.

 

[applesauce]

You should really research before you look stupid. But yes Japan Korea they all fell into middle income traps. So I’ll school you a bit

Middle income trap is when a rising export economy starts to slow down because of its own rise. As exports grow the currency and labor becomes more expensive and exports starts to shift to the next cheapest country

Between the time exports starts to shifted as labor becomes more expensive there is a very narrow window an economy has to shift entirely to a consumer based economy. So that even if the exports are shifted it does not matter the domestic economy can bear its weight and continue growing at pace

If the middle income trap is not avoided economies fall behind and it takes them decades to recover from them. Only 15 economies to date have recovered from the middle income traps which includes Japan and south korea

But if Japan had not fell into middle income trap it would’ve been a bigger economy than the USA.

Aiming for the Top: Can China Escape the Middle Income Trap? - CKGSB

As for China

wrong chinas domestic consumer economy is 38%

The problem is not the population itself the problem is the ratio of aging population to working population. As population reaches the retirement age they no longer participate in the economy and that causes gdp to go down.

2- If the aging population is not replaced with equal amount of working population then the balance shifts more money is then spent to take care of the aging population vs in research, technology investment etc.

"school"?? I think you're the one that needs to go back and study.

middle income trap isn't just economy stagnation. what japan experienced is not middle income trap, they never fell into the middle income trap as you so accuses them of

Japan had basically smooth sailing from ww2 all the way to developed status, at no time did they fall into the middle income trap and thus they never had to escape it.

Their growth was very high, then high, then a clear stagnation starting the 1990s. at no point did they stagnate when their per capita gdp was low.

by the time their economy stagnated in 1990-ish, Japan's gdp per capita was ~25k usd. that's even higher than the US per capita gdp of ~23k at the time.

Japan simply couldn't have surpassed the usa for the simple reason that they would have to be more than twice as productive per person as the average american, and the us was already at the forefront of productivity. it would take a new industrial revolution for that to happen.

China meanwhile can be less than half as productive as the average american and still have a larger total economy and consumer market. that's the fundamental difference right there.

Same story for south korea, their GDP growth, except for a couple crisis's, was steady and quite high until they were already a rich nation. at no point did south korea fall into and therefore had to escape the middle income trap.

You want to know who did fall into the middle income trap and have failed to escape it so far?

Notice the multiple dips into the negative, and low average growth for years even while their per capita GDP is only like 8000ish even today.

now on china. china's GDP already puts it a stone's throw from high income nation status. Also china is not a nanny state, the state have not and does not provide all costs for the elderly, Elderly care costs will increase but will not be a unbearable costs on the state and so long as the elderly cost isn't unbearable then china is fine, it'll still have the second largest labor force well into 2100s.and thing bold very well for china's service future beyond simply manufacturing, it already has some of the most advanced and digital systems, for instance mobile payments, and highly developed online shopping systems, cash is less and less seen these days in china. the likes of huawei, which the us is so scared of, shows that china can indeed lead in new technologies

 

[Mk-313]

"school"?? I think you're the one that needs to go back and study.

middle income trap isn't just economy stagnation. what japan experienced is not middle income trap, they never fell into the middle income trap as you so accuses them of

Japan had basically smooth sailing from ww2 all the way to developed status, at no time did they fall into the middle income trap and thus they never had to escape it.

Read the damn link i post next time so you dont look more stupid. so here ill post it straight out from chinas mouthpiece newspaper global times

"Japan, South Korea and Singapore took different approaches to overcome the middle-income trap and successfully fostered a stable middle class to form a rugby-shaped society in terms of income."

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/985626.shtml
How 3 East Asian countries have overcome middle-income trap

now on china. china's GDP already puts it a stone's throw from high income nation status. Also china is not a nanny state, the state have not and does not provide all costs for the elderly, Elderly care costs will increase but will not be a unbearable costs on the state and so long as the elderly cost isn't unbearable then china is fine, it'll still have the second largest labor force well into 2100s.and thing bold very well for china's service future beyond simply manufacturing, it already has some of the most advanced and digital systems, for instance mobile payments, and highly developed online shopping systems, cash is less and less seen these days in china. the likes of huawei, which the us is so scared of, shows that china can indeed lead in new technologies

ok, well make sure you send this nonsense to central bank of china and all the world economists i am sure theyre stupid publishing papers and making the government remove thier one child policy

"The aging of the population has further deepened, and in the coming period [we will] continue to face pressure for the long-term, balanced development of the population," Ning Jizhe, head of China's statistics office, said at a news conference Tuesday in Beijing."
https://www.npr.org/2021/05/11/9954...drops-as-census-data-warn-of-aging-population

----------------------
"In two dedicated sections of the paper, researchers from the People’s Bank of China laid out how these demographic issues put China at an economic disadvantage to the U.S. and India.

“If my country has narrowed the gap with the U.S. over the past 40 years by relying on cheap labor and the bonus of a huge population, what can it rely on in the next 30 years? This is worth thinking over,” the authors wrote in Chinese, according to a CNBC translation."

"In 2019, China’s workforce as a proportion of the total population was 5.4 percentage points higher than the U.S. However, by 2050, China’s workforce proportion will be 1.3 percentage points smaller than the U.S., the paper said"
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/chi...aper-suggests-dropping-childbirth-limits.html

 

[applesauce]

Read the damn link i post next time so you dont look more stupid. so here ill post it straight out from chinas mouthpiece newspaper global times

"Japan, South Korea and Singapore took different approaches to overcome the middle-income trap and successfully fostered a stable middle class to form a rugby-shaped society in terms of income."

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/985626.shtml
How 3 East Asian countries have overcome middle-income trap






ok, well make sure you send this nonsense to central bank of china and all the world economists i am sure theyre stupid publishing papers and making the government remove thier one child policy

"The aging of the population has further deepened, and in the coming period [we will] continue to face pressure for the long-term, balanced development of the population," Ning Jizhe, head of China's statistics office, said at a news conference Tuesday in Beijing."
https://www.npr.org/2021/05/11/9954...drops-as-census-data-warn-of-aging-population

----------------------
"In two dedicated sections of the paper, researchers from the People’s Bank of China laid out how these demographic issues put China at an economic disadvantage to the U.S. and India.

“If my country has narrowed the gap with the U.S. over the past 40 years by relying on cheap labor and the bonus of a huge population, what can it rely on in the next 30 years? This is worth thinking over,” the authors wrote in Chinese, according to a CNBC translation."

"In 2019, China’s workforce as a proportion of the total population was 5.4 percentage points higher than the U.S. However, by 2050, China’s workforce proportion will be 1.3 percentage points smaller than the U.S., the paper said"
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/chi...aper-suggests-dropping-childbirth-limits.html

how about you read what you wrote?

you said, and i quote

" Japan Korea they all fell into middle income traps"

point is, no they did not. they sailed past it smoothly.

All of your articles agree with me, that SK, japan, all became developed/rich without issue through various ways. but you continue to try as say they fell into it then escape it. no they did not, they never fell into it in the first place.
god damn, its like you can't read your own sources or something.

First you can't read your own sources, then you cant read what i wrote.

i said and i quote my self.

" china just needs to work on stabilizing the population"

replacement rate for populations is about 2.1 child per couple. hence the 3 child policy. a billion people in china is more than enough in the foreseeable future, it'll be the second largest population in a country no matter what.

and you clearly don't know what total labor force vs workforce proportion.

again , the elderly care costs are lower in china than in the us, and such costs, given the high chinese savings rates and other reasons will not be unbearable to china, and once that elderly population dies off then the population stabilizes there is no issue.

at worse china has a slower growth rate for 20 years, 30 years from now, but see that doesnt matter because, china, at half the productivity of the us will be twice as wealthy. and china is already a stone's throw from high income status, unless the world goes to shit tomorrow, china is virtually guaranteed to be high income way before aging population affects the economy.

 

[Mk-313]

" Japan Korea they all fell into middle income traps"

point is, no they did not. they sailed past it smoothly.

All of your articles agree with me, that SK, japan, all became developed/rich without issue through various ways. but you continue to try as say they fell into it then escape it. no they did not, they never fell into it in the first place.
god damn, its like you can't read your own sources or something.

First you can't read your own sources, then you cant read what i wrote.

i said and i quote my self.

" china just needs to work on stabilizing the population"

replacement rate for populations is about 2.1 child per couple. hence the 3 child policy. a billion people in china is more than enough in the foreseeable future, it'll be the second largest population in a country no matter what.

and you clearly don't know what total labor force vs workforce proportion.

again , the elderly care costs are lower in china than in the us, and such costs, given the high chinese savings rates and other reasons will not be unbearable to china, and once that elderly population dies off then the population stabilizes there is no issue.

at worse china has a slower growth rate for 20 years, 30 years from now, but see that doesnt matter because, china, at half the productivity of the us will be twice as wealthy. and china is already a stone's throw from high income status, unless the world goes to shit tomorrow, china is virtually guaranteed to be high income way before aging population affects the economy.

Wrong. I said they fell into and they recovered and if they had not fallen into it Japan would be bigger economy than US

2- that’s what overcoming means to fall into and the getting out of . And yes I get it you’re trying to not look dumb so you’re flip flopping

- you 1st flip-flopped to oh Japan never fell into middle income trap to now oh but they became developed.

3- am about to make you look dumb again because labor force and work force are literally the same thing

4- you don’t even know what wealth and gdp means . Even at half the productivity you’re gdp would be double but you won’t be wealthy because the per person productivity would still be very very low
—it’s like saying a house of 1 person who earns $100 is less wealthy than the house of 5 people who earn $200.

5- You jagweed your economy is only bigger because of your population. If you have more people dying than being born then your gdp/capita will go down which in turn will your total GDP go down.
- if you have to divert more money than now to elderly care then your investment money goes down which slows down your economy growth rate.
- if more people retire out of the work workforce than people entering the workforce then your total gdp goes down

Theres a reason your central bank is bringing these issues. But you are so reluctant to admit your wrong, that you would rather flip flop and create non sequitir issues than learning new information

 

[Goritoes]

@applesauce @Mk-313 can you guys take your economic discussion to another Thread?