Pakistan Elections 2013 Predictions

[RiazHaq]

Political parties and pundits are catching the election fever as the current PPP-led coalition government in Pakistan is nearing the end of its term in February 2013.

Campaign rallies are being held across the country by major political parties including Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League factions (PML N & Q), Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Awami National Party (ANP), Jamiat Ulama Islam (JUI) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and others like Difa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC), etc.

Overseas Pakistanis are getting into the spirit of elections as well. A WBT TV show called Viewpoint From Overseas recently interviewed me on the subject and asked for my analysis and predictions of winners and losers in 2013. Here's a summary of how I see the outcome of the upcoming elections in Pakistan:

1. Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) is likely to emerge as the single largest party with 90 or slightly fewer seats of the 272 general seats up for direct elections in 2013.

2. Pakistan Muslim League (N) would be competing with Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) for the second spot.

3. PPP is most likely to form the next coalition government with smaller parties like PML (Q), MQM and ANP.

4. PPP will essentially retain its vote bank in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab while MQM and ANP will carry urban Sindh and KP province respectively.

5. PML (N) will have real struggle getting overall majority in Punjab province.

6. There will be little change in Balochistan given the fact that the nationalists and insurgents are not ready to talk peace and participate in elections.

For detailed analysis, please watch this video:

Haq's Musings: Haq's Crystal Ball: A Look at Pak Elections 2013

 

[truthseer]

Disagree on the retention of the majority of MQM and ANP in their respective areas. Karachi, at least, will have more PTI votes than you're predicting here.

I can't definitely say the same for KPK. However, seeing it's popularity there on TV, I can safely bet that PTI will also crreate hurdles making it impossible for ANP to get a majority

 

[Fracker]

Disagree on the retention of the majority of MQM and ANP in their respective areas. Karachi, at least, will have more PTI votes than you're predicting here.

I can't definitely say the same for KPK. However, seeing it's popularity there on TV, I can safely bet that PTI will also crreate hurdles making it impossible for ANP to get a majority

You are forgetting other players of karachi, which will not effect any ethical votes, but the votes of other players. So i don't think PTI even has chance in karachi. Also in KPK, you don't know Jamat-e-Islami? If they came then I don't see PTI anywhere as well.. Since most of the nuetral votes will go to Jamat-e-Islami. And ANP will secure their ethical votes. PTI thow has chance in large cities like Peshawar, and may b in Kohat. But Mardan, Swat Swabi, Noshewar will be divided amont Jamat-e-Islami and ANP. And Hazara division will go to you know who..

Any how, I know next election is a mess and there are major chances of ANP+PPP+JUI-F+PML-Q and MQM government again.. so no difference for pakistani people even if PTI win some bunch of seats.

 

[AdeelFaheem]

Political parties and pundits are catching the election fever as the current PPP-led coalition government in Pakistan is nearing the end of its term in February 2013.

Campaign rallies are being held across the country by major political parties including Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League factions (PML N & Q), Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Awami National Party (ANP), Jamiat Ulama Islam (JUI) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and others like Difa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC), etc.

Overseas Pakistanis are getting into the spirit of elections as well. A WBT TV show called Viewpoint From Overseas recently interviewed me on the subject and asked for my analysis and predictions of winners and losers in 2013. Here's a summary of how I see the outcome of the upcoming elections in Pakistan:

1. Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) is likely to emerge as the single largest party with 90 or slightly fewer seats of the 272 general seats up for direct elections in 2013.

2. Pakistan Muslim League (N) would be competing with Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) for the second spot.

3. PPP is most likely to form the next coalition government with smaller parties like PML (Q), MQM and ANP.

4. PPP will essentially retain its vote bank in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab while MQM and ANP will carry urban Sindh and KP province respectively.

5. PML (N) will have real struggle getting overall majority in Punjab province.

6. There will be little change in Balochistan given the fact that the nationalists and insurgents are not ready to talk peace and participate in elections.

Thanks to Gen.(R) Ahmad Shujah Pasha (Maker of PTI)

 

[Rafael]

Thanks to Gen.(R) Ahmad Shujah Pasha (Maker of PTI)

And all thanks to Gen. Zia Ul Haq for giving political birth to Nawaz Shareef who helped Zardari to become the president in the first place!

 

[Fracker]

And all thanks to Gen. Zia Ul Haq for giving political birth to Nawaz Shareef who helped Zardari to become the president in the first place!

So we should thank General Ayub for making PPP on the first place?
Then General Zia for NS and MQM
Musharaf for NRO, PML-Q and MQM again
Pasha for PTI

so only credible parties left are Jamat-e-Islami, ANP alone? (by this logic)

 

[Rafael]

By the way, this is a must watch for every PML-N fan. Sher-e-Punjab was once advocating for Zardari's immunity

So we should thank General Ayub for making PPP on the first place?
Then General Zia for NS and MQM
Musharaf for NRO, PML-Q and MQM again
Pasha for PTI

so only credible parties left are Jamat-e-Islami, ANP alone? (by this logic)

You have got no proof that Pasha has made PTI. If so, please come forth and we can discuss it here.

 

[Archie]

Political parties and pundits are catching the election fever as the current PPP-led coalition government in Pakistan is nearing the end of its term in February 2013.

Campaign rallies are being held across the country by major political parties including Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League factions (PML N & Q), Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Awami National Party (ANP), Jamiat Ulama Islam (JUI) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and others like Difa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC), etc.

Overseas Pakistanis are getting into the spirit of elections as well. A WBT TV show called Viewpoint From Overseas recently interviewed me on the subject and asked for my analysis and predictions of winners and losers in 2013. Here's a summary of how I see the outcome of the upcoming elections in Pakistan:

1. Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) is likely to emerge as the single largest party with 90 or slightly fewer seats of the 272 general seats up for direct elections in 2013.

2. Pakistan Muslim League (N) would be competing with Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) for the second spot.

3. PPP is most likely to form the next coalition government with smaller parties like PML (Q), MQM and ANP.

4. PPP will essentially retain its vote bank in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab while MQM and ANP will carry urban Sindh and KP province respectively.

5. PML (N) will have real struggle getting overall majority in Punjab province.

6. There will be little change in Balochistan given the fact that the nationalists and insurgents are not ready to talk peace and participate in elections.

For detailed analysis, please watch this video:

Haq's Musings: Haq's Crystal Ball: A Look at Pak Elections 2013

Not what I was expecting from you

So you believe that PPP will return to power and we will hear Zardari Khappey on this forum for another 5 yrs

Anyways good for Democracy ,good for ppp , good for India
Not so good for Pakistani Awam

 

[livingdead]

Wah Riaz uncle, you got your own tv show now.

 

[INDIC]

I feel that there may be hung national Assembly because people are witnessing only urban popularity of PTI, nothing clear about rural areas.

 

[zip]

Ppp in pakistan
al in bangladesh
congress in india
all will come back to power

 

[Awesome]

If elections are free and fair there can be only one.

Tsunami!

 

[Awesome]

PTI will sweep out PPP seats from Southern Punjab and significantly hurt N league elsewhere in Punjab too.

There will be a close match between ANP, PTI and DPC in KPK

And hopefully PTI would sweep through Balochistan.


Sindh would definitely go to PPP and if PTI can get a few seats here n there that would be bonus.

With some allies I hope PTI would be able to establish the next government.

 

[Peaceful Civilian]

PTI will get many seats. No future of PMLN

 

[airmarshal]

If PPP comes back in power then Pakistanis deserve even worse than they are getting from present government.

If Imran wanted to be in power, it would have been done a long time ago. Then I could support the argument that PTI was the creation of the army establishment. As it stands today, the exposure to people of both PPP and PML-N has made the argument for PTI. Both ruling parties are corrupt, family fiefdoms and have singular objective to stay in power to safeguard and secure their narrow interests.

People criticize PTI as if it has been in power several times. If PPP and the similar PML can have so many stints with zero results why not give a chance to party that had none before? How could we go worst than it is now?

PTI will sweep out PPP seats from Southern Punjab and significantly hurt N league elsewhere in Punjab too.

There will be a close match between ANP, PTI and DPC in KPK

And hopefully PTI would sweep through Balochistan.


Sindh would definitely go to PPP and if PTI can get a few seats here n there that would be bonus.

With some allies I hope PTI would be able to establish the next government.

Any party that wins Punjab will be win the elections.