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Overseas Pakistanis are getting into the spirit of elections as well. A WBT TV show called Viewpoint From Overseas recently interviewed me on the subject and asked for my analysis and predictions of winners and losers in 2013. Here's a summary of how I see the outcome of the upcoming elections in Pakistan:
1. Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) is likely to emerge as the single largest party with 90 or slightly fewer seats of the 272 general seats up for direct elections in 2013.
I don't understand your logic, if PTI is capable of competing with PMLN, then why not PPP. Since both PPP and PMLN get their votes out the same way, with the help of the feudal lords.2. Pakistan Muslim League (N) would be competing with Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) for the second spot.
I think you underestimate the young voters of the urban areas, and with record voter registration. I see ethical base political influence less on this demographic and most of them support PTI, which is an undisputed fact.4. PPP will essentially retain its vote bank in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab while MQM and ANP will carry urban Sindh and KP province respectively.
Also in KPK, you don't know Jamat-e-Islami? If they came then I don't see PTI anywhere as well.. Since most of the nuetral votes will go to Jamat-e-Islami. And ANP will secure their ethical votes. PTI thow has chance in large cities like Peshawar, and may b in Kohat. But Mardan, Swat Swabi, Noshewar will be divided amont Jamat-e-Islami and ANP. And Hazara division will go to you know who.
Any party that wins Punjab will be win the elections.
If PPP wins then there is no stopping Military take over (which I support), if PML-N the age of darkness & lies will start again, PTI I have no idea what they will do there are tons of claims & aims but......... I better stay quiet, APML Gen. Musharraf I believe he will do good because he had worked hard for Pakistan & had taken Pakistan forward.
If elections are free and fair there can be only one.
Tsunami!
Its PPP all the way as the anti govt. votes will be divided between Pakistan Muslim League factions (PML N & Q) and Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI)
Karachi have the "Pir" to save it from the "Tsunami"
PTI will sweep out PPP seats from Southern Punjab
.
I disagree. PTI Tsunmani is just another urban legend.
What NA-151 tells us is that Abdul Qadir Gilani beat the combined opposition candidate Shaukat Hayat Bosan (brother of PTI leader Sikandar Hayat Bosan) who was fully supported by PML (N), PTI, JI and others.
The fact that Gilani won by just 4000 votes rather than the 24000 vote margin his father enjoyed in 2008 shows that PPP has lost some popularity but it is still more popular than all of its opponents combined.
It shows that if PTI continues to fight with PML (N), both will lose big to the PPP.
What urban middle class analysts and commentators miss is the fact that the PPP has delivered extra Rs. 200 billion a year in rural income by raising food prices in 2008. This rural farm income has brought unprecedented prosperity to the PPP vote bank in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab.
Haq's Musings: FMCG Companies Profit From Rural Consumption Boom in Pakistan
If elections are free and fair there can be only one.
Tsunami!
I disagree. PTI Tsunmani is just another urban legend.
What NA-151 tells us is that Abdul Qadir Gilani beat the combined opposition candidate Shaukat Hayat Bosan (brother of PTI leader Sikandar Hayat Bosan) who was fully supported by PML (N), PTI, JI and others.
The fact that Gilani won by just 4000 votes rather than the 24000 vote margin his father enjoyed in 2008 shows that PPP has lost some popularity but it is still more popular than all of its opponents combined.
It shows that if PTI continues to fight with PML (N), both will lose big to the PPP.
What urban middle class analysts and commentators miss is the fact that the PPP has delivered extra Rs. 200 billion a year in rural income by raising food prices in 2008. This rural farm income has brought unprecedented prosperity to the PPP vote bank in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab.
Haq's Musings: FMCG Companies Profit From Rural Consumption Boom in Pakistan
What kind of delusion your are in?
There won´t be any free and fair elections. According to NADRA some 37 million votes were faked in 2007. If the people of Pakistan don´t boycott the next elections you´ll see either PML-N or PPP in power. This is all 'topi drama'.
No chance PPP will win the next elections.
kayani is the only reason that PPP lived through a difficult period. (remember when Zardari hastily fled to Dubai for unknown reasons). It won't happen again.
I beg to differ.. PPP managed the seat only because it is still in power. Opportunists from rural areas still have a lot to squeeze.