Sunday, November 16, 2008
KARACHI: Restoration of confidence in public is must for economic revival and that is a big challenge for the government at current. Otherwise issues in domestic economy like current account deficit and balance of payments are of very basic nature, which can be resolved with strong economical will.
The experts and stakeholders developed this consensus at a one-day investment forum on Investing in Change: Pakistan and the World, which was organized by BMA Fund here on Saturday at a local hotel.
Speakers said that the local economy was of resilient nature. It had faced more or less the same challenges in the past as well and had survived major shocks. They were of firm believe that this time too the nation would come out of depression and would successfully set economy back on rails.
Replying to a query from audience, Director Institute of Business Administration, Dr. Ishrat Hussain said the timeframe of recovery in economy was totally dependent on governments will and sincerity. As quick as it (government) would take decisions it will succeed in overcoming issues.
He, therefore, said that forex reserves in hand would restore the confidence of Pakistans economy and if it (country) was not getting it (dollars) from its friends like China, Saudi Arabia, United States and etc then it should go better and quickly to International Financial Institutions (IFIs) without wasting anymore time, he strongly recommended.
Having said that people have short memory, Dr. Hussain reminded that Pakistan had a growth rate of 1.8 per cent in 2000 and it entered into IMF program. The program proved fruitful and helped country getting back on rails.
Pakistan established access to international markets following its entrance into IMF program. As a result of that, it launched European Bond in world markets in 2004 for the first time. Then it launched Islamic Sukuk and then sold 10-years and 30-years bonds in US market at 200bps above the US Treasury rates just two years ago, he recalled.
Moreover, country achieved a GDP growth rate of seven per cent on an average for the first five years. The poverty reduced to 25 per cent from 33 per cent. The unemployment rate slashed to 6.2 per cent from 8.5 over the same period, he added.
Dr. Hussain, former Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), said: 20 per cent core inflation at present is not the result of economic policies, but this is a result of not taking timely decisions, and postponement of decisions on economy owing to shot-term political gains by governments.
He further said that current account deficit was not going to kill the country.
The difference between the saving of a country and investment in domestic economy and can be managed by non-debt creating tools, he suggested.
He was of the opinion that government business was to facilitate private sector and remain out of conventional business. But in this module of business, the regulatory bodies should be given autonomous power to deal with guilty in the country.
While, private sector in Pakistan will have to change its mindset to compete at world level, as it was yet showing an attitude of approaching, privileging and getting associated with the government in powers for short term gain.
It (private sector in Pakistan) can compete at world level by adopting three-pronged strategy that included enhancing productivity, efficiency, and investing in labour.
Other speakers said that the issues of circular debt can be resolved by sitting stakeholders across the table including WAPDA, KESC, IPPs, PSO, NRL, PRL and Ministry of Finance will have to play its active role in this exercise.
Waqar A. Malik, President, OICCI, urged upon extensively working on institutional building and evolving a policy framework to adopt ahead. He said Pakistan was having a number of challenges, but the biggest opportunity it was having was its 180 million populous.
He said giving subsidies was not a bad practice. The developed countries like US and China also do it. But subsidy should not be given on across the board and be provided to some selective sectors.
He maintained that Pakistan was an agriculture based country and it much provide relief to farmers and also wide it tax net by brining in some new economic sectors and rich people.
S. Ali Raza, Chairman and President, NBP, said that financial managers should think out of box as boom in economy has become history. He said floor at local bourse be removed after getting sure that country was having enough reserves to facilitate foreign investors smooth exit.
Tariq Iqbal Khan, Chairman-NIT, said that cut in the disbursement of profits to the shareholders gave birth to bearish sentiment at local bourses. While, higher profitability to them would ensure their return and restore their confidence.
Farrukh H. Khan, CEO, BMA Caital; Muddassar Malik, CEO, BMA Fund; Tawfiq A. Hussain, President & CEO, Samba Bank and many others also spoke on the occasion.