Economic targets do not match ground realities: ministry
Saturday, May 24, 2008
ISLAMABAD: Ministry of Finance high-ups have raised objections over the growth target of 6.5 per cent envisaged by the PPP-led government for the next fiscal year 2008-09, saying that these economic targets did not match the ground realities.
However, officials in the Planning Commission are of the view that owing to low-base GDP estimate of 5.78 per cent for the outgoing fiscal year, the growth rate target of 6.5pc for the next fiscal is achievable and cannot be termed over-ambitious.
An official in the Finance Ministry told The News on the condition of anonymity that the central bank increased its discount rates and took many other steps to control inflationary pressure.
In these extraordinary circumstances, how is the government supposed to achieve higher growth in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors to achieve its desired target of 6.5pc by the next fiscal, he questioned.
On the agriculture sector, another official of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock said that this sector could achieve a bumper wheat crop in the range of 24 million tonnes by the next fiscal year if the government ensured the availability of fertilisers within the range of Rs1500 per bag, which means another Rs1,000 to Rs1,500 subsidy on each bag of fertiliser.
He said that the rice and cotton production would also be increased provided the government increased its subsidy. Citing an example of India, he said that New Delhis government is providing a subsidy of Rs836 billion on various heads of agriculture but in Pakistan there was not much focus on the agriculture sector.
The target to contain inflation at 8 per cent seems to be unrealistic as the increase in POL prices; electricity and gas prices and food prices would take the inflation into double digits in the next fiscal year.
The same base would not be available to the local industries, agriculture and other sectors due to the factor that State bank of Pakistan (SBP) has raised the interest rates, utility prices ie electricity prices and gas prices are likely to be adjusted upwards, and oil prices would also be re-adjusted upwards to pass on the impact of higher import cost in the next fiscal year.
Depreciation of the rupee against the dollar, the official said, would also negatively impact imports and would make it difficult for the local industries to achieve a growth rate of 9 per cent in the next fiscal year.
Economic targets do not match ground realities: ministry