Radical reforms needed to achieve $45bn exports
ISLAMABAD, July 2: Pakistan will have to undertake aggressive tariff reforms, seek more market access and diversify its export base for reaching the ambitious export target of $45 billion by the year 2013.
Currently, the exports stand at $17 billion and for achieving the target in six years, the country is required to witness 16 per cent growth in its annual exports.
Pakistans Ambassador to WTO Dr Manzoor Ahmad in his study Achieving $45 billion export target by 2013 - The way forward for Pakistan, observed that three key issues - tariff reforms, market access and diversification of export - are of paramount importance to trade policy to reach the ambitious target.
Achieving this target will undoubtedly be a major boost, but looking at it from another perspective, it would still be well below the current figures for countries of comparable size Brazils $138 billion, Indonesias $102 billion, Turkeys $85 billion and South Africas $59 billion.
Pakistan started to liberalise its tariffs in early 1990s in order to integrate its economy with the rest of the world. The liberalisation was accelerated in 1997, but it was still a stop-and-go approach.
Till 2001, some 86 import substitution programmes were in force. During 2001 and 2002, however, the pace of reforms intensified.
Mr Manzoor stated that further tariff reforms would have to be carried out, if the countrys exports were to grow.
Several studies have shown that reduction in tariff boosts exports since an implicit tax on exports is reduced. If one were to interpolate the results of a 2006 study by IMFs Stephen Tokarick, one can conclude that by removing its import tariffs, Pakistan could achieve a 16 per cent increase in exports, whereas the increase would be only 11 per cent if developed countries removed all their tariffs on imports from Pakistan.
For its internal tariff reforms the best way is to benchmark against a group of successful developing countries like Asean and reach that target. India has been working towards achieving that target for the last five years and is gradually closing the gap, he observed.
Next to tariff reforms, he said the most important factor for boosting exports was access to target markets. Whenever this access became easier, Pakistans exports jumped as a result.
The countrys export of textile and clothing to the EU rose by 23pc in 2003 and 18pc in 2004 due to preferential market access. Later, when the concession was withdrawn in 2005, the decrease of nine per cent in exports was just as remarkable.
Also in 2002, all restrictions on bilateral trade with Afghanistan were removed just when the reconstruction work was starting there. Exports to Afghanistan surged to $1.2 billion by 2006, compared to just $168 million in 2001.
Afghanistan is now Pakistans third largest export market accounting for six per cent of the total exports.
In case of India, with which Pakistan shares 1,800-mile long border, the exports are less than $300 million or less than 1.8 per cent of our total, whereas the potential is huge.
The Indo-Pakistan Business Council estimated in 2005 that the trade level between the two countries could reach $10 billion annually within five years.
Opportunities provided by the Doha Round for improved market access would be substantial and Pakistan will have a better opportunity than many other countries to make use of those opportunities.
However, this will depend upon how well Pakistan is prepared to make use of those opportunities, he remarked.
Currently more than 75 per cent of Pakistans exports originate from cotton, rice, leather and sports goods and more than half of its exports go to seven countries. Therefore, it has to diversify its product range and its export destinations, he suggested.
The ambassador said one of the reasons why Pakistans exports were mostly concentrated in textiles and clothing was that it had never tried to diversify local-grown cotton beyond textiles from the beginning.
Pakistan now has to provide a level-playing field to its other exports. Pakistan now has to look what other comparable countries are selling and try to make a place for itself as an exporter of dynamic products whose exports is growing at the fastest rate he asserted.
As far as diversification of export destinations is concerned, Pakistan should concentrate on major economies. It needs to analyse why share of its exports to Japan, which is the worlds second largest economy, has fallen from 6.8 per cent or $500 million in 1992-93 to less than one per cent of the countrys exports or a mere $200 million.
He said that other major economies which accounted for less than one per cent of our exports included South Korea, Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Mexico, whose imports from other countries had been rising rather rapidly.
These are all growing economies where tariff barriers are being reduced and labour costs are going up. Pakistan can make a niche for itself for labour-intensive goods where it has an edge because of abundant labour and lower costs of production, he concluded.
http://www.dawn.com/2007/07/03/ebr4.htm