By Khaleeq Kiani
ISLAMABAD, April 29: Pakistan requires $100 billion investment in power sector in the next decade for its current high economic growth rate and hence needs a careful balance between economic stability and growth.
This was stated by Dr A R Kemal, a renowned economist, planning commissionââ¬â¢s advisor and a former chief economist who pointed out some repercussions of an uncontrolled GDP growth.
Speaking at a seminar organised by South Asia Free Media Association (SAFMA) on Saturday, he said the leading South Asian countries were registering high growth rates but said: ââ¬ÅWe have to be realistic whether there are sufficient resources to move into the capital intensive high-tech industries and infrastructure requirements which also require capital intensive energy needs.ââ¬Â
His word of caution was that ââ¬Ådo not move faster than your capacity otherwise the balance of payment problems would automatically begin to slow down GDP growth in an undesirable fashion.ââ¬Â
For example, he said Pakistan would require about $100 billion investment in the power sector alone to maintain growth rates of seven-eight per cent. Hence, such growth rates could also create balance of payment problems like the one Pakistan has already started witnessing during the current year.
He said most of the Asian countries had similar stabilisation policies under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programmes and hence they have a lot of common lessons to feed into the possibility of a regional cooperation in the next 10 years as they move towards regional economic integration.
He said there should be trade off between the high growth rates and economic stability, create exchange rate equilibrium and distribute incomes in an efficient and just manner.
Dr Kemal, who also led Pakistan Institute of Development Economics for many years, said since most of the South Asian nations were trying to maintain high growth rates, they should coordinate with each other and scale down growths.
He said that the regional countries looked into the question whether they should have a common strategy to attract foreign direct investments or compete for the FDI to the benefit of foreign investors.
He was also critical of some of the so-called prudential regulations which ensured credit only to the rich because these did not allow the poor, who were more efficient to save, invest and produce more, to access capital without collateral.
Dr Ponna Wignaraja from India said the availability of data in the south Asian region was inadequate as the governments underplayed poverty situation while multilateral agencies underplayed policy choices and hence there was a need for coherence for a policy change.
He said the definition of poverty as one dollar income per day was not true because this meant starvation while caloric definition was also faulty.
He called for decentralisation and devolution of political democracy and economic democracy to avoid violence in the region.
He believed that poverty could be reduced through sustained political process, a process that involves caring and sharing which already exist in the culture and not through micro-credits.
Another delegate Nephil Maskay called for integration of SAARC countries into an economic union as level of regional trade in these countries stood at just five per cent compared with 50pc of the European countries.
He said the finance ministers and central bank chiefs of the Saarc members should meet every year to promote economic cooperation for regional integration and there should be regional institutionalised arrangements as to what should be the economic priorities of the region.
A separate panel of experts recommended setting up of a regional power grid, a regional gas grid for import of gas and transmission to needing economies, exchange of hydropower and joint development of technology.
The group said all the countries of the region had introduced reforms in the energy and water sector and all had failed in some way to produce desired results and hence it was time that all should exchange their experiences for a common benefit.
http://www.dawn.com/2006/04/30/ebr6.htm