By Farhan Bokhari, Special to Gulf News
In a week when the Pakistani government had cause for celebrating its victory over dissident tribesmen in the country's gas rich western Baluchistan province, events in the Middle East promise to undermine the south Asian country's economic outlook.
On the one hand, its indeed a consolation for policy makers in Islamabad to see up to 500 well armed tribesmen surrender to government officials on Friday, after waging a fierce battle against government troops for almost two years.
The clash had intensified worries over the future of efforts for not only continuity of gas supplies from Baluchistan but also efforts to develop new supplies from the region.
In the past two years, Pakistanis have tasted the consequences of disruption to gas supplies when Baluch dissidents attacked gas supply lines coming out of the embattled region.
As a result, stoves and heaters across central Pakistan turned cold right at the peak of the winter months amid an unprecedented step by the authorities to manage the fall in supply, through offering gas flows to different regions and suspending it to others.
Now, events in the Middle East promise to inflict a similar pain upon Pakistan's economic prospects.
Futile war
In addition to the human cost of an otherwise futile war which has further pushed away the prospects for enduring peace, the conflict also promises to raise the price of oil globally and force economies such as Pakistan to brace for eventual consequences.
For Pakistan, there is no easy way out of what is clearly one of the most profound challenges faced once again by the muslim world.
There are set to be at least two direct consequences from the effects of the conflict. On the one hand, higher oil prices must translate into further inflation at a time when high oil prices of the past two years have already undermined the quality of life for many.
On the other hand, the anti-US and anti-western sentiment which emanates from the conflict must further reinforce the view that countries like Pakistan and others in the region surrounding the Middle East, are perhaps going to become further insecure for high profile western investments.
By contrast, its also likely that investors from the Arab world including the many who chose to invest closer to home after the New York terrorist attacks triggered an anti-muslim sentiment in the US-led western world, would find further cause to remain wary of investing in the western world.
Can Pakistan benefit from this trend and eventually have more success in wooing such investors to its soil?
That question may well be central on the minds of at least some policy makers as turmoil in the Middle East forces new questions upon them.
In the short term, its indeed possible that affluent Arab investors may head increasingly towards countries such as Pakistan, armed not just with additional petrodollars earned through the ongoing conflict, but also driven by a sense of defiance of the US-led western world.
However, its then up to countries which host such prospective investors to create the necessary environment which retains their interest for the long run.
In Pakistan's case, dealing with a host of issues which are directly relevant to interests of investors, holds the key to the country's success in turning an immediate opportunity in to an avenue for long-term sustainable growth.
Immediate victory
A case in point is indeed the follow up to events in Baluchistan where an immediate military victory now must be followed up by consolidation on the ground to create the basis for long-term growth and prosperity.
The victory must be followed up with the creation of a host of comforting features such as a mechanism for law enforcement and policing, a network for the flow of important utilities such as electricity and gas, and creation of mechanisms for the fast-paced resolution of legal disputes.
All these factors are fundamentally relevant to investors if their interest is to be retained over a long period of time.
This is all the more essential as the fallout from the conflict in the Middle East would not necessarily tilt the circumstances in favour of countries like Pakistan for the long run.
Ultimately, investors may consider returning to the relative comfort of the mainstream western world once the conflict dies down, and a cold calculation leads many to believe that the returns in countries like Pakistan are not significantly ahead of the western economic environment.
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