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Pakistan and its expensive LNG procurement

Dont worry my great leader will be back with great kick back deals in 2024
People love him and will die for him

Us waqt Awam 200Rs per liter petrol bi khushi say lay gi. Tab 20 kilo 2000 ki bori Shareifon ki tashreef kay saath laga kar khayein gay. Cheeni Tue say nikal kar reuse karein gay laikin Shareif khandan ko papiyan dein gay. Khan masala ya hai isko Awam ki fikar hai. Yay bi behis hojaye to usko bi abu bana lein. Awam ko victim complex hai jo jitni zayada laita hai usko utnay bote zayada daitay hain.
 
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Us waqt Awam 200Rs per liter petrol bi khushi say lay gi. Tab 20 kilo 2000 ki bori Shareifon ki tashreef kay saath laga kar khayein gay. Cheeni Tue say nikal kar reuse karein gay laikin Shareif khandan ko papiyan dein gay. Khan masala ya hai isko Awam ki fikar hai. Yay bi behis hojaye to usko bi abu bana lein. Awam ko victim complex hai jo jitni zayada laita hai usko utnay bote zayada daitay hain.
Inflation was lowest ever in nawaz sharif era because they subsidized everything untill the CAD ran to 24b dollars(2b$ in zardari last year)

So my guess is we will have the lowest ever inflation, highest ever imports and decrease in exports from 2023-2028 which will make common person happy till we get bankrupted in 2028 when rupee will have no value
We will be either bebailed out by arabs or using indian rupee
Look at lebanon
 
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When one is sitting in a sinking boat, people feel happy dragging others down to their level. While being clueless as to what the other guy actually does.

As to the current idiots, small or big, still idiots, who are exposing themselves all on their own.

On this issue, shortcomings are not only storage issue, but mis management of supply as well. There are no backup plans in place when suppliers bail out.

After 3yrs in power they are still flip flopping, proving that everything promised pre-election was the usual rhetoric, nothing else.

As always talk is cheap.

This is something most people here dont want to admit, how SMQ's loyalties and bias cost us.
fence sitting they don’t want to open there eyes at all
specially when iran openly threatened us
 
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@farok84 bro can you please give an idea of what is the procurement cost for spot cargoes by other countries as compared to Pakistan for the recent months?

Hi,

Here's an infographic by S&P Global Platts listing some of October spot purchases.

1636101546202.png


Pakistan October procurements.

1636117402407.png




Bro just a minor correction,

GIDC is not spent by PTI government rather it was spent by plmn government, Rs 295b which this government now has to fund .

Thank you for the correction. If the money was spent by previous government, it will be wise for PTI government to tell the same to Supreme Court instead of covering up PMLN misuse of GIDC.


"However, the new situation poses the question as to what will the government reply to Supreme Court on utilization of GIDC as GoP has told the SC about presence of Rs 295 billion in the consolidated Account Number 1 and ironically the finance division has not refused the Russians during July 12-15 talks, the unavailability of money to spend on this project during current fiscal year.

The Supreme Court of Pakistan (SCP) through their Judgment dated August 13, 2020 dismissed petitioners’ (Fertilizers, Captive Power and others) appeals and upheld the levy and collection of GIDC in accordance with GIDC Act 2015. The government had given the undertaking to SC that it has by 13 August 2020, collected Rs 295 Billion under GIDC head and remaining amount of Rs400 billion is held up with various economic players due to litigation."



"In a report laid before the SC, the federal government stated that the companies listed in the first schedule of the GIDC Act 2015 were responsible for collecting the cess from consumers at the rates provided for in the law, to be deposited in the government treasury. Out of the GIDC collections, an amount of Rs279.5 billion during 2016 and an amount of Rs207.6bn during 2019 were utilised by Inter State Gas Systems Limited for equity injection in the TAPI project implementation company, the TAPI Pipeline Company Limited (TPCL)."



PTI has itself answered for PMLN utilization of GIDC for TAPI implementation. They will also have to answer for collections and utilization during their tenure.

As per Supreme Court judgement document, this Rs. 295 Billion is collected till 30-06-2019, and should be available with the government including the collected Rs. 25B during PTI tenure (2018-2019). This amount increased to Rs. 307.23Billion till 30-07-2020.


So, the PTI government should have these funds available for PSGP, UGS, TAPI and IP utilization today? Is my understanding on this correct or am I totally wrong? And if Pmln has utilized these funds inappropriately, why is PTI, bailing them out in Supreme Court?



1636107621760.png


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1636111632697.png


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Previous years estimated collections (available on Finance Ministry website) to better understand collection history.

1636112483739.png


1636112426729.png


Dear Sir,

I agree you have a point but you should also realize that that time when a contract is concluded is important because the price is governed by the prevalent market conditions.

Dear Niaz Sb,

I believe @Norwegian is trying to highlight those prevalent market conditions.

If we plot the price slope 13.37% on following graphs, we will conclude the price at which Qatar contract was signed in 2016 was much more higher than the prevailing market price for long term contract in the year 2016. The data source is IEA and Rystad.

1636115020363.png



1636115499950.png



Apart from this, Pmln, also signed a contract with Gunvor in 2015 for supply of 12 cargoes per year starting from January 2016-Decenber 2020 at a price of 13.37%. How was a contract for 15 year term, for 5 x Gunvor volumes (60 cargoes/ year) could be justified in 2016 at 13.37%? Those market conditions, larger volumes and longer contract term, should have dictated a better price, which was much more reflective of market conditioned of 2016, on contrary, Pmln signed contract was more aligned to market conditions of 2014.
 

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Thank you for the correction. If the money was spent by previous government, it will be wise for PTI government to tell the same to Supreme Court instead of covering up PMLN misuse of GIDC.


"However, the new situation poses the question as to what will the government reply to Supreme Court on utilization of GIDC as GoP has told the SC about presence of Rs 295 billion in the consolidated Account Number 1 and ironically the finance division has not refused the Russians during July 12-15 talks, the unavailability of money to spend on this project during current fiscal year.

The Supreme Court of Pakistan (SCP) through their Judgment dated August 13, 2020 dismissed petitioners’ (Fertilizers, Captive Power and others) appeals and upheld the levy and collection of GIDC in accordance with GIDC Act 2015. The government had given the undertaking to SC that it has by 13 August 2020, collected Rs 295 Billion under GIDC head and remaining amount of Rs400 billion is held up with various economic players due to litigation."



"In a report laid before the SC, the federal government stated that the companies listed in the first schedule of the GIDC Act 2015 were responsible for collecting the cess from consumers at the rates provided for in the law, to be deposited in the government treasury. Out of the GIDC collections, an amount of Rs279.5 billion during 2016 and an amount of Rs207.6bn during 2019 were utilised by Inter State Gas Systems Limited for equity injection in the TAPI project implementation company, the TAPI Pipeline Company Limited (TPCL)."



PTI has itself answered for PMLN utilization of GIDC for TAPI implementation. They will also have to answer for collections and utilization during their tenure.

As per Supreme Court judgement document, this Rs. 295 Billion is collected till 30-06-2019, and should be available with the government including the collected Rs. 25B during PTI tenure (2018-2019). This amount increased to Rs. 307.23Billion till 30-07-2020.


So, the PTI government should have these funds available for PSGP, UGS, TAPI and IP utilization today? Is my understanding on this correct or am I totally wrong? And if Pmln has utilized these funds inappropriately, why is PTI, bailing them out in Supreme Court?



View attachment 790322

View attachment 790328

View attachment 790341

View attachment 790342

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Previous years estimated collections (available on Finance Ministry website) to better understand collection history.

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View attachment 790346


Thank you for posting such an detailed post. The case is GOP against industries. It was professional on pti part to proceed as GOP and not on party lines.

The amount of equity injection in TAPI is in millions not billions. I was shocked so I rechecked the amount. (Dawn makes these mistakes way too often). It is a very meager amount. That makes it 0.1% of GIDC collected by plmn.

"Out of GIDC collection, an amount of Rs279,575,000 was released on May 3, 2016, and Rs207,665,001 on April 23, 2019, which was utilised by M/s Inter-State Gas System (ISGS) Limited for equity injection in TAPI project implementation company i.e. TAPI Pipelines Company Limited (TPCL)."



The 2015 ordinance by Plmn paved the way for access to funds for budgetary support.

"That the federal government needs access to this cash to meet its expenditure priorities as well as its budget deficit targets is something that stands to reason given a shortfall in the budgeted revenue" .


When PTI took over the money was never there.

Talking on Gas Infrastructure Development Cess (GIDC), Babar said that the previous government had deposited Rs 226 billion in GIDC, which was to be spent on laying the pipeline but this huge amount of Rs 226 billion was not spent by the previous government on laying the pipeline.

GIDC account was empty when PTI government came into power, informed SAPM, while demanding that former PM Shahid Abbasi has to answer about whereabouts of that money.


As far as PTI government is concerned supreme court ruling barred pti from using GIDC funds for anything else other than what it was intended for originally since 2020.

"The judgement allows the government to recover the outstanding amount from defaulters in two years but links future collections to the complete utilisation of the cess on projects for which the levy was imposed. Thus, the court order bars the government from using GIDC collection for any purpose other than gas infrastructure construction while also blocking its future income stream under it."


If we calculate the amount I don't think that leaves PTI government in primary collection much to finance Russian pipeline project. The arrears are not recovered to date. PTI government did pass an ordinance to do out of court settlement on give and take basis but was withdrawn on public pressure. Thus the seeking of alternate financing through Russian banks for Pakistan part of project.
 
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Dear Niaz Sb,

I believe @Norwegian is trying to highlight those prevalent market conditions.

If we plot the price slope 13.37% on following graphs, we will conclude the price at which Qatar contract was signed in 2016 was much more higher than the prevailing market price for long term contract in the year 2016. The data source is IEA and Rystad.

1636115020363.png


https://aperc.or.jp/file/2020/9/1/C...on+for+supply+security+in+the+APEC+region.pdf
1636115499950.png



Apart from this, Pmln, also signed a contract with Gunvor in 2015 for supply of 12 cargoes per year starting from January 2016-Decenber 2020 at a price of 13.37%. How was a contract for 15 year term, for 5 x Gunvor volumes (60 cargoes/ year) could be justified in 2016 at 13.37%? Those market conditions, larger volumes and longer contract term, should have dictated a better price, which was much more reflective of market conditioned of 2016, on contrary, Pmln signed contract was more aligned to market conditions of 2014.
All these facts won't help it. Supporters of PMLN would continue to believe this party ruled in interest of Pakistan and not in the interests of Sharif family
GIDC account was empty when PTI government came into power, informed SAPM, while demanding that former PM Shahid Abbasi has to answer about whereabouts of that money.
Everything was empty when PTI govt took after PMLN. I wonder why this anti Pakistan party hasn't been banned by now? Who is protecting them? Establishment?
 
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Sir can you compare the long term contracts signed with other contracts in the same time frame ( I think India also signed a long term contract in the same time period)?
Furthermore the price renegotiation clauses in the contract after a certain number of years, which were very different with industry standards?

Didn't the current government secured cheapest long term contract with Qatar as compared to other countries ( Bangladesh for one) in the same time frame?


2nd point sir I want your assessment about the terminal/FSRU take or pay contract with sovereign implications which Abbasi signed? In comparison the private sector led model followed by current government with no government sovereign guarantees.


Since I am now retired my info is a bit out of date. To the best of my knowledge Indian had signed and 8.5-milion ton contract in 199 which expires at the end of 2028. At $60/bbl crude the LNG price came to between $8 - $9 per MMBtu

“The decision to discuss Indian demand is a clampdown for Qatar, whose energy minister had rejected at January-end Indian petroleum and natural gas minister’s suggestion to reopen the contract. India had then demanded delinking LNG price from MMBtu while oil prices were around $60 a barrel, keeping long-term gas prices high at around $8-9 per MMBtu. “

Shahid Khaqan Abbassi contract with Qatar is at 13.37% of Brent which at $60/- per bbl comes to about $8/- per MMBtu. Hence Pakistani contract is bit better but this could also be because Henry Hub gas prices were cheaper when Pakistan contract was signed. It must be clearly understood that term contracts signed by national companies of OPEC countries with different countries are normally very close in price and reflect the market conditions prevailing at that time the contract is signed.

In general, for larger quantities (say 5-million p.a. or higher) land-based LNG facilities are preferred. Land based terminals more multifunctional terminals, since they also have LNG onshore, functionality such as bunkering of LNG based vessels and LNG tanker truck loading systems can be instilled.

Most common FSRU installations are single-purpose terminals with connection to a national gas supply grid or large power generation facility. The ultimate determining factor about which way to go is primarily the availability of funds. Upfront investment is FSRU facility is normally half of the investment required for a land-based terminal of roughly equal capacity.

About 3 years ago, I was member of a consultancy team conducting a short feasibility study of a 3.5-million ton per annum FSRU facility based at Jeddah (to replace fuel oil burnt at one of the Power Plants).

Based on 2018 data, cost of a new FSRU was between $250 to $300-million in addition to the cost of building a new jetty. Operational cost of the FSRU for approx. 400-500 million standard cubic feet per day ( MMSCFD) send out regassification system was between $20-25K per day.

Alternate to buying the FSRU was to time charter the same at around $100-120K per day. This added around $40-million to the $9-million per annum operating cost. The investors failed to get long-term commitment from the power plants to buy the gas output and the idea was dropped; an in-depth feasibility study was never conducted.. Understand that a similar project is under consideration by Aramco.

In my humble opinion, non-availability of the funds with the GOP obliged was the reason why the existing LNG terminal contract was agreed upon and also why the owners of the terminal rented the FSRU.

Regret my inability to reply to you question in greater detail.
 
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Thank you for posting such an detailed post. The case is GOP against industries. It was professional on pti part to proceed as GOP and not on party lines.

The amount of equity injection in TAPI is in millions not billions. I was shocked so I rechecked the amount. (Dawn makes these mistakes way too often). It is a very meager amount. That makes it 0.1% of GIDC collected by plmn.

"Out of GIDC collection, an amount of Rs279,575,000 was released on May 3, 2016, and Rs207,665,001 on April 23, 2019, which was utilised by M/s Inter-State Gas System (ISGS) Limited for equity injection in TAPI project implementation company i.e. TAPI Pipelines Company Limited (TPCL)."



The 2015 ordinance by Plmn paved the way for access to funds for budgetary support.

"That the federal government needs access to this cash to meet its expenditure priorities as well as its budget deficit targets is something that stands to reason given a shortfall in the budgeted revenue" .


When PTI took over the money was never there.

Talking on Gas Infrastructure Development Cess (GIDC), Babar said that the previous government had deposited Rs 226 billion in GIDC, which was to be spent on laying the pipeline but this huge amount of Rs 226 billion was not spent by the previous government on laying the pipeline.

GIDC account was empty when PTI government came into power, informed SAPM, while demanding that former PM Shahid Abbasi has to answer about whereabouts of that money.


As far as PTI government is concerned supreme court ruling barred pti from using GIDC funds for anything else other than what it was intended for originally since 2020.

"The judgement allows the government to recover the outstanding amount from defaulters in two years but links future collections to the complete utilisation of the cess on projects for which the levy was imposed. Thus, the court order bars the government from using GIDC collection for any purpose other than gas infrastructure construction while also blocking its future income stream under it."


If we calculate the amount I don't think that leaves PTI government in primary collection much to finance Russian pipeline project. The arrears are not recovered to date. PTI government did pass an ordinance to do out of court settlement on give and take basis but was withdrawn on public pressure. Thus the seeking of alternate financing through Russian banks for Pakistan part of project.

Hi,

Good catch. At least someone read all that :-) . I realized Dawn's mistake while posting following earlier.

1636135002948.png


The problem is, PTI can go to all the talk shows and lash out at whomever from PMLN, PMLN will only need to bring this report out, which PTI has itself submitted to the highest court in land. They have literally bailed them out and have accepted, the existence of all collected GIDC minus Rs. 0.483 Billion, whether it existed there or not, in the Federal Account, and is now part of the judgment. Why was this affair managed this way? Why didn't they tell the court truth, that PMLN has spent the collected amount on other stuff? Why didn't they submit detailed bank statement? They have themselves invited criticism and have only themselves to blame for it.

For PSGP, we will have to extend sovereign guarantees now, if we want Russians to invest, but the bigger issue will be dealing with Gazprom (a US sanctioned entity). Or find another interested party, CNPC, maybe? But they will also require sovereign guarantees.
 
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I doubt this is the case
The voters mostly do so knowingly

All these facts won't help it. Supporters of PMLN would continue to believe this party ruled in interest of Pakistan and not in the interests of Sharif family

Everything was empty when PTI govt took after PMLN. I wonder why this anti Pakistan party hasn't been banned by now? Who is protecting them? Establishment?
Atleast thats what i would do
 
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Hi,

Good catch. At least someone read all that :-) . I realized Dawn's mistake while posting following earlier.

View attachment 790442

The problem is, PTI can go to all the talk shows and lash out at whomever from PMLN, PMLN will only need to bring this report out, which PTI has itself submitted to the highest court in land. They have literally bailed them out and have accepted, the existence of all collected GIDC minus Rs. 0.483 Billion, whether it existed there or not, in the Federal Account, and is now part of the judgment. Why was this affair managed this way? Why didn't they tell the court truth, that PMLN has spent the collected amount on other stuff? Why didn't they submit detailed bank statement? They have themselves invited criticism and have only themselves to blame for it.

For PSGP, we will have to extend sovereign guarantees now, if we want Russians to invest, but the bigger issue will be dealing with Gazprom (a US sanctioned entity). Or find another interested party, CNPC, maybe? But they will also require sovereign guarantees.


Even if we set aside politics and look at it from GOP (irrespective of whoever was in power, GOP is a single entity). GOP did receive GIDC and they accepted that in court which is very true. Irrespective of whether the money is in the account of not or what the past government did with it its still GOP liability, GOP has to fund the amount it received as GIDC now through budget.

There are negotiations going on. I doubt the contract will go to CNPC as it is supposed to be a flagship Russian project, it will go to gazprom. To what I have read they are looking for loan from Russia EXIM bank directly at 1.5-2% to finance its own side and also if Russia can increase its shareholding. Russia is willing to finance as well but it does not want Pakistan to offload its share before the loan is repaid.

Pakistan out of its own pocket is willing to finance Rs 90b at Rs20-30b per year. Given the expected amount in GIDC account, it matches perfectly. The rest will be financed.

The other reason for Pakistan going for loan is it cannot afford an outflow of $2-2.5b in 2-3 years as it will put strain on its forex reserves.

Given the limitations I think this is the best route to take, negotiating for direct loan instead of giving the project to Gazprom against fixed sovereign gurateed returns. The liability on GOP will be the loan repayment.

Let's see what happens, by the end of Nov we will get a better picture.
 
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