Pakistan adopts careful tone on Israel, experts read between lines
Economic crisis and long-term foreign policy goals seen keeping Islamabad cautious
asia.nikkei.com
ISLAMABAD -- Pakistan has responded to the Israel-Hamas war with an unusually measured tone, standing out among Asia's Muslim-majority countries and fueling speculation about the chances of Islamabad someday normalizing ties with Israel.
The Pakistani government is typically a harsh critic of Israel, with which it has no diplomatic relations, and a defender of Palestinian rights. But while countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia have pointedly blamed the conflict on Israeli policy, Pakistan has so far taken a softer approach.
As news broke of Hamas militants storming Israel on Saturday, interim Pakistani Prime Minister Anwaar ul Haq Kakar posted on X that he was "heartbroken" by the violence. "We urge restraint and protection of civilians. Enduring peace in the Middle East lies in a two-state solution with a viable, contiguous, sovereign State of Palestine."
This was noticeably milder than, for example, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's reaction tweet on Sunday, in which he wrote: "The confiscation of land and property belonging to the Palestinian people is done relentlessly by the Zionists. As a result of this injustice, hundreds of innocent lives were sacrificed."
Pakistan's Foreign Office issued its own cautious statement, saying: "We are closely monitoring the unfolding situation in the Middle East and the eruption of hostilities between Israel and Palestinians. We are concerned about the human cost of the escalating situation."
Rand analyst Derek Grossman noted on X, "Pakistan, which has been traditionally anti-Israel and pro-Palestine, interestingly goes easy on Israel, simply expressing concerns over the escalating situation."
Even Molana Fazal ur Rehman, chief of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) -- the leading Islamist political party in Pakistan -- asked the Palestinians to respect the human rights of Israelis. This was unprecedented, since Islamist leaders in Pakistan are known for their staunch pro-Palestinian stance.
Saturday's Hamas assault on Israel left more than 1,200 people dead, while Israel's retaliatory strikes on Gaza have killed over 1,100 so far, according to local authorities.
As the war goes on, sentiment may harden. Kakar has since lamented the Israeli occupation of the West Bank. And while Pakistan has yet to see major protests against Israel, on Friday, Rehman's party was planning to express "solidarity" with the Palestinians. Jamaat-e-Islami, another Islamist party, declared this week to be "Palestinian Solidarity Week."
Still, there have been no announcements of "Death to Israel" rallies, which were common in the past.
Experts see several factors in play.
Ahmed Quraishi, an Islamabad-based national security expect, expressed hope that Pakistan's response was at least partly due to introspection. "There is some concern, albeit muted, about publicly supporting a brazen attack on civilians the way Hamas did on Saturday," he told Nikkei.
Sabookh Syed, a political analyst in Islamabad, said that since Hamas started the current conflict in Gaza, Pakistani religious leaders saw little reason to come out forcefully against Israel. Islamists, he said, have so far largely "ignored the reaction of Israel, which has killed many Palestinians."
There may be other considerations. Pakistan is mired in an economic crisis, relying on a $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund. Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, told Nikkei that Islamist groups in Pakistan are under the influence of the powerful military and have likely been advised to keep a low profile, to avoid antagonizing Western governments just when Islamabad badly needs assistance.
The U.S. and many other Western countries have voiced firm support for Israel.
The ruling establishment may also prefer to avoid burning bridges with the Israelis.
Pakistan insists that recognition of Israel is conditional upon the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state. But over the years, there has been some quiet interaction.
The first known high-level public contact was in 2005, when Pakistan's and Israel's foreign ministers met in Turkey. Since then, multiple meetings have been reported in the media, although none were officially acknowledged.
While much of the Muslim world refuses to establish formal relations with Israel, this has been gradually changing. Years after Israel made peace with Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994, it sealed agreements in 2020 with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.
Before the Hamas attack and Israeli retaliation, many were anticipating the next big step -- an accord between Israel and Saudi Arabia -- and there was talk that Islamabad might follow Riyadh.
The outbreak of war has raised questions about whether an Israeli-Saudi deal can be salvaged. The Saudis have joined Israel's critics, with the kingdom's foreign ministry saying, "We recall our repeated warnings of the dangers of the situation exploding as a result of the continued occupation."
But some believe Pakistan may consider forging a relationship down the road.
"As of now, the government of Pakistan has no tangible plans to recognize Israel," a government official told Nikkei Asia on condition of anonymity. But the official added, "The possibility of recognition can't be ruled out in the future if it serves Pakistan's national interests."
Syed said that backdoor discussions about recognizing Israel have been taking place for a long time. "The ruling elite of Pakistan wants to recognize Israel and they will make the move if and when the time is opportune," he said.
Quraishi, too, believes normalization is a possibility. "When [the government of] Pakistan decides to take a course of action in its national interest, things tend to fall into place," he said.
Such a move would risk angering a population of about 240 million that appears to harbor broad anti-Israel sentiment. But Quraishi, who met Israeli President Isaac Herzog in May last year in Jerusalem, argued that such feelings in Pakistan are mostly manufactured.
"[Anti-Israel sentiment] is more of a populist political card in domestic politics," he told Nikkei.
Not everyone is convinced that normalization is possible, however. Kugelman believes it is a nonstarter.
"Pakistan links the issue of a Palestinian state to Kashmir, which means that recognizing Israel in the absence of a Palestinian state would equate to Pakistan abandoning the cause of Kashmir," Kugelman said, referring to Islamabad's territorial dispute with India.
"Taking such a position," he said, "would amount to political suicide in Pakistan."
