Pak GDP growth < 1%

[s90]

Economy shows improvement in first quarter: SBP

KARACHI, Dec 29: The State Bank of Pakistan said on Monday that the economy had improved during the first quarter of the current fiscal year and some macro-economic indicators had shown strength after a steep fall in 2007-08.

In its first quarterly (July-Sept) report the SBP expressed the hope that economy would see stabilisation despite lower than expected growth.

&#8220;The sense of crisis gripping Pakistan&#8217;s economy in the initial months of the financial year 2009 has visibly eased by November 2008, as the government moved to address the most immediate risks and entered into a macroeconomic stabilisation programme to support medium-term reforms under the aegis of the IMF,&#8221; the report said.

The fiscal performance improved consequent to the policy shift, with the overall fiscal deficit estimated to have dropped to 1 per cent of the annual GDP. This was consistent with the annual fiscal deficit target set under the IMF stabilisation programme.

The SBP said that reduction in fiscal deficit had been brought about mainly by a drastic cut in development expenditures.

The data available so far show that the government has made a fine start to contain the fiscal deficit. However, the fiscal improvement appeared to be largely based on reduction in oil subsidies and a cut in development expenditure.

According to the July-Sept data, revenue grew by 24.4 per cent compared to 14.8 per cent of the corresponding period of last year. Similarly, exports increased by 12.7 per cent against 6.5 per cent of last year. The money supply was negative 0.2 per cent while it was 4 per cent during the same period last year.

&#8220;On a positive note, both fiscal and current account deficits are estimated to improve in FY09,&#8221; said the SBP.

 

[TopCat]

It is hard to achieve any positive real GDP growth with inflation 25&#37; and higher. I should say impossible. PK govt should pay more attention to bring down the inflation first then current account deficit and then think of any growth whatsoever. Pakistan will have bumpy road ahead. Its not over yet guys.. Its just a begining...
Bringing back the investor confidence coupled with consumers.. takes a long time... Also Govt does not have enough money in hand like china or india where they could invest and keep the economy going... The only alternative is Aid and there is no free pies in that path either... PK will be drowned with hard term loans which they will find harder and harder to pay back in near future.....
Is there any chance of some sort of bail out from USA anymore?????? USA might be the best option now i suppose....

 

[TopCat]

Such things are always accounted for as estimates in the calculations.

I think you are right.. Its not only the taxable income they count, they also take into consideration of non conventional economy, even though that was lump sum but fairly correct...
In gulf countries, nobody pays taxes.. does that mean they have 0 dollar economoy???

 

[pama]

democracy happened, and Pakistan went back to the 80's and 90's.

To me Pakistan economy only grows in army ganeral period.
In zia piriod growth was 6.7% highest in world at that time.
In musf piriod growth is 7% 3rd in world after china and india

so I wonder when in democary did you have growth i?

 

[Neo]

To me Pakistan economy only grows in army ganeral period.
In zia piriod growth was 6.7% highest in world at that time.
In musf piriod growth is 7% 3rd in world after china and india

so I wonder when in democary did you have growth i?

Its Ironic but true...Pakistan's economy's always performed well under a dictatorship.

 

[Jihad]

Its Ironic but true...Pakistan's economy's always performed well under a dictatorship.

What about the only ruling party in Singapore? Or the only ruling party in Japan for the past 50 years? Or the only ruling party in China for that matter? Has that done any harm to their economic growth? Not at all, the people in those parties were smart, had eye for investment, and knew what they were doing, they were carefully planning the future for their country.
It is ironic but it is proven to be effective if you have the right people in charge!

 

[pama]

What about the only ruling party in Singapore? Or the only ruling party in Japan for the past 50 years? Or the only ruling party in China for that matter? Has that done any harm to their economic growth? Not at all, the people in those parties were smart, had eye for investment, and knew what they were doing, they were carefully planning the future for their country.
It is ironic but it is proven to be effective if you have the right people in charge!

Leave chineese out in above.
There people are smart to elect good representatives to serve them.
There people are well educated .
Democratic institutions in Pakistan never allowed to mature by army.

 

[Jihad]

Leave chineese out in above.
There people are smart to elect good representatives to serve them.
There people are well educated .
Democratic institutions in Pakistan never allowed to mature by army.

Why would I leave the chinese out in above?
They had and have brilliant economists and reformers in the government who tilted the odds in China's favor, I forgot the names, but if you do some research, you'll come across some brilliant Chinese people who made China what it is today because of their planning and dedication.

 

[pama]

Why would I leave the chinese out in above?
They had and have brilliant economists and reformers in the government who tilted the odds in China's favor, I forgot the names, but if you do some research, you'll come across some brilliant Chinese people who made China what it is today because of their planning and dedication.

Agree to all points above
Chineese is not democracy.
Chineese are good at reforms and implemented it with iron hand.
there policy can not be implemented with out human rights violations.

Tell me one thing why do they fear of wide spread social un rest when economy is even below 7&#37;

Do you know why there goods are so cheap?

Do You want growth with these conditions to worker who drive your economy.
Do you want some one arrested and put to these camps with out any trail?
Get ultra cheap Goods out of these camps as u need to pay any?

If yes choose there path and policies.
For me no.
You know that they say if you questions
"No country can become rich with out exploitation"

Some day they will do political reforms to become role models

 

[Energon]

Its Ironic but true...Pakistan's economy's always performed well under a dictatorship.

Only on account of an initial spurt; but certainly not in the long term. I think it is now becoming clear that the rapid growth shown during Musharraf's tenure through Shaukat Aziz wasn't really a comprehensive or a stable one.

I am not making light of the poor governance during civilian rule by any means. What I am saying however is that the temporary growth spurts shown by military dictatorships aren't really worth all that much if the house of cards eventually comes crashing down.

At the end of the day, insecurity and instability on account of radicalism is the juggernaut for healthy economic growth; and unless that is tackled successfully, no real progress can take place.

 

[Neo]

Only on account of an initial spurt; but certainly not in the long term. I think it is now becoming clear that the rapid growth shown during Musharraf's tenure through Shaukat Aziz wasn't really a comprehensive or a stable one.

It was as comprehensive and stable asit could be, with Musharraf incharge we still would have had a better performance.

Previous governemt can't be blamed for current crisis. Anyone with knowledge of Pakistani affairs will agree that the series of events that shook the economy did not involve Musharraf or Aziz but rather PPP and PML-N clowns.
Do you recall what happened when previous CJ and later Benazir visited Karachi? Karachi lost more than a Billion in business in damages.
Benazir en Nawaz re-entering the politics caused more instablity and her asassination did the rest.

How could Pakistan sustain growth when the world is in recession?

 

[Energon]

Do you recall what happened when previous CJ and later Benazir visited Karachi? Karachi lost more than a Billion in business in damages.
Benazir en Nawaz re-entering the politics caused more instablity and her asassination did the rest.

How could Pakistan sustain growth when the world is in recession?

See, but this again is because of the endemic instability and the cancer of radicalism and violence (in the case of Benazir) which can essentially bring the country to a standstill and result in a "clean bowled" effect. It further suggests that the country is neither stable, nor developing healthily or comprehensively.

Pakistan's economy at the moment is far too downtrodden and removed from the rest of the world for it to really feel the effects of the global recession in a big way.

Either way, until the fundamental problems are sorted out we will never see the kind of healthy growth some of the other developing states seem to be enjoying.

 

[notorious_eagle]

Only on account of an initial spurt; but certainly not in the long term. I think it is now becoming clear that the rapid growth shown during Musharraf's tenure through Shaukat Aziz wasn't really a comprehensive or a stable one.

I am not making light of the poor governance during civilian rule by any means. What I am saying however is that the temporary growth spurts shown by military dictatorships aren't really worth all that much if the house of cards eventually comes crashing down.

At the end of the day, insecurity and instability on account of radicalism is the juggernaut for healthy economic growth; and unless that is tackled successfully, no real progress can take place.

Although i never agree with you but in this case you are right, dictatorship can only be a temporary solution. In my opinion let democracy play its role, with the mess that this government has created there is no way this government is going to be re elected.

 

[RabzonKhan]

India is equally corrupt as Pakistan and a democracy, India is progressing.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[Zovc]

To me Pakistan economy only grows in army ganeral period.
In zia piriod growth was 6.7&#37; highest in world at that time.
In musf piriod growth is 7% 3rd in world after china and india

so I wonder when in democary did you have growth i?

That is not true.

Zia regime initially saw good growth because of Bhutto's work. In economics nothing is immediate, actions take years to yield results. By the end of Zia regime we were neck deep in loans. After him for 5 years all Pakistani economic team talked about was how to pay the next loan installment, and not development etc.