AsSalam o Alaikum.
I think that the way the Chinese technology is advancing, it would not be very long that they would field an AESA radar.Perhaps 5 yrs from now we may well be looking at a chinese AESA Radar on the Thunder. I think the Selex deal will only go through if there is a delay in the chinese venture.However, i wonder what the value of Say 20-30 JF17s with Selex AESA radar would be to PAF.
As to the future, I feel there are a few variables here. Firstly, how US behaves towards Pakistan. If current cordial relations continue, i see no reason, why PAF would not buy more F16(new and old).It would be a cheap solution and keep the numbers up for PAF cheaply. Secondly the progress of J10 programme and PAFs happines and satisfaction with it. If J10 satisfies PAF, it may be that we only have more J10s and skip the F16s.
I think that the J10s, F16s and JF17s would be the only future acquisitions of PAF till 2015.
PAF will only consider a third option if something drastic happens to the F16s or/and J10s.
As to replacements, f7, A5 and Mirages 3s would go in that order.PAF would retain some Mirages (Rose2-3s)and PGs till Thunder comes out in big numbers.
That is my 2ps worth.
WaSalam
Araz