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PAF preparations for 2020

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Storm Force

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As we enter 2017 the PAF are modernising the air force to meet future threats with the JF17 programme.

The announcement that there are 70 Thunders in PAF last week demonstrates superb progress on PAF choice for replacement of its mirage fleet . This programme is stark in contrast to the neighbours similar effort with only 4 similar fighters inducted despite 30 years of effort.

However by 2020 the threat to PAF will have reached new levels.

in 3 years time the adversary will have finished receiving the last of over 270 su30mki & the first squadron of the very expensive rafale F3 will also have arrived. This French fighter will be further supported by 50 upgraded mirage2000/5 fighters equipped new generation radars HMD and MICA BVRS .

In short PAF will face a much smaller but far more modern adversary in 3 years time. The MIG legacy will be over .

FOR PAF there has been recent efforts to acquire brand new F16/52 from USA firstly PAF did not take the option of additional 18 block 52 BUT went for reduced no of just 8 airframes. This for reasons discussed was did not reach a conclusion.

We hear that PAF is in discussion to acquire 14 used Jordanian falcons and may also resort to seeking used falcons from Europe where no approach has yet been made.

There has been much talk and much bandwidth spent discussing acquiring evaluating SU35 from Russia and even talk about J31.

This week chinease media confirmed that only the second J31 Tech demonstrator took to the skies which confirms that programme is a decade away from reaching export status. ie post 2025-2027

PAF need a realistic interim solution to face off the adversary above

Do they go with what they have and more thunders OR should PAF be looking at other options.

Should PAF approach USA again for the 18 block 52 THIS makes real sense

Or

Should GOP test the waters with Russia for the formidable SU35 . There seems to be a belief that Pak Russian relations are getting very strong at the expense of india .

Any Thoughts
 
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The Current PAF fleet

cosists of

18 block 52 falcons
55 falcons a/b
70 thunders mk1/2
80 mirages 5
120 F7 P/PG

How does this need to change by 2020 TO FACE the changing threats
 
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In 5-10 years time there will be a chance to lease the F-35.

30-50 F-35's in the fleet for 10 years along with 250 JF-17's.

Should give us enough time to build a 5th gen fighter.
 
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In 5-10 years time there will be a chance to lease the F-35.

30-50 F-35's in the fleet for 10 years along with 250 JF-17's.

Should give us enough time to build a 5th gen fighter.


LEASING F35 are you serious.

The USA woul not assist with 8 new block 52s

Nobody is getting lease 5th generation fighters ..........EVER PERIOD

The NEED is between NOW & 2020
 
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In 3 years time PAF will somehow look like this ..

JF-17 block 1/2/3 130-150
F-16 block 52 18 + 18 ( highly doubtful )
F-16's A/D 55+ 18 more from Jordan or other countries
Mirage III/ROSE 50
F-7PG unknown numbers
 
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The realistic chance.....only J-10 Cs....plus depends upon our economy a lot....May be some odd chances of Su-35s if we shall have a capacity to buy them.
 
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The JF-17 Block-II and - hopefully - JF-17 Block-III are really the only major platforms on the procurement docket by 2020. Personally, we might get lucky be seeing the Block-III enter production before 2020, but I wouldn't expect any full-strength squadrons before 2021/2022.

Besides that, the PAF is/was hoping to procure 30-40 more capable fighters (IHS Jane's), ideally twin-engine and/or longer-range heavier payload fighters. PAF officials apparently told IHS Jane's that the Su-35 was of interest. I expect they're interested in heavy platform to ultimately replace the Mirage ROSE and Mirage 5PAs used in air interdiction (ROSE-I), strike (ROSE-II/III), and maritime operations (Mirage 5PA).

I think the PAF might try to grab a FC-31 prototype before 2020 for testing and evaluation purposes, much like the Army and Z-10. If anything, this would have a positive psychological or morale-lifting impact, especially as India's T-50/PAK-FA stuff gains more momentum.
 
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the only way to have an edge over IAF is by procuring 5th gen. stealth aircrafts
Numbers as well...even a few 5 generation wont help...stealth will give an edge however will loose its edge if pitted in small numbers...so one to two squadrons at the minimum...and the timeframe we are talking about is not gonna happen...even if it happens(for argument sake) getting hands on a fighter jet is one thing using it in combat is different...it easily takes 3-4 years to drive doctrines and train pilots on them...so to be honest this timeline is unrealistic and naive...
 
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IN THE NEXT 3 years PAF WILL need to decide between AND deliver by 2020

1. Used F16 like Jordanian later to be upgraded . This is cheap & quick but adds nothing new

2. New Block 52 @ 18 fighters cost of $1,5 billion ......GREAT option BUT USA will,not help fund this

3. SU35B Russia ........Great addition but st over $3 billion very expensive and russian after service will take some adjusting for PAF

Personally I would not be surprised if PAFS answer to the new emerging IAF is only Used F16 from Jordan

These will need some serious upgrading

For Those of you who keep posting J31

The time frame is 3 years NOT 10 years

Can Thunders and mostly older blocks of falcons provide PAF with a suitable deterrence against rafale/mirage/su30mki/mig29 threat. Especially outnumbered 3-1
 
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J31 was always a decade away but some people were to emotional to accept the fact. PAF really needs to get rid of old dying F7 & Mirage which have now started to crash & is alarming for PAF. The truth is, PAF have got no choice but to negotiate for platforms which are already in service. Surely PAF will not go for expensive aircrafts such as Rafales, Griphon & even Sukhois, so PAF should go for available option of J10's & start replacing the old dying fleet of Mirages, which in fact is a good choice but I don't see it happening.

I am not sure what PAF is up to & what exactly are they searching for, at least one thing is for sure that they are not going to wait cor 15 or 20 more years for aircraft, surely they are searching for a fighter jet, but which one are they looking for is a big question.
 
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No way for the Su-35 because the Russians won't give it much support with a war against India.

J-10's and J-11's are not gonna happen either.

I would turn to western europe but they have decided not to build a 5th gen fighter.
 
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